<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A congressional investigating agency said inherent differences prevent government-run and privately </div>

A congressional investigating agency said inherent differences prevent government-run and privately

<div>A congressional investigating agency said inherent differences prevent government-run and privately owned shipyards from competing equally for overhaul and repair work on Navy surface vessels.According to a General Accounting Office study, private yards have managed to bid successfully for some of the repair work despite those differences.At the request of 11 members of Congress, the watchdog agency examined Defense Department programs offering a portion of naval repair work for competition between public and private shipyards. Those programs have been included in defense appropriation acts since 1985.By the end of last year, repairs on 31 vessels had been opened to competition...

A congressional investigating agency said inherent differences prevent government-run and privately owned shipyards from competing equally for overhaul and repair work on Navy surface vessels. According to a General Accounting Office study, private yards have managed to bid successfully for some of the repair work despite those differences.At the request of 11 members of Congress, the watchdog agency examined Defense Department programs offering a portion of naval repair work for competition between public and private shipyards. Those programs have been included in defense appropriation acts since 1985. By the end of last year, repairs on 31 vessels had been opened to competition and the work valued at nearly $823 million. That is a relatively small part of the total naval alteration, overhaul and repair budget of $15.4 billion between 1985 and 1987. Public yards got about 80 percent, or $656 million of the competed work, while private shipyards were awarded the remaining 20 percent. The program appears to have created a more competitive environment and the Navy has taken steps to ensure that public and private shipyards are treated as equitably as possible, said the GAO report. The agency said it could not substantiate the Navy's claims that the competition has saved $200 million. GAO cites problems with the Navy's methods for estimating savings in coming to that conclusion. Also, the impact of the competition program cannot be clearly distinguished from the impact of other management initiatives and other variables that affect shipyard performance and overhaul and repair costs. One of the differences affecting competition between public and private yards is that, in the long term, private shipyards must recover their costs and try to realize a profit, while public shipyards can operate without making a profit, according to the study. While competition under those circumstances is not precluded, the differences hamper equity, the ability of private shipyards to compete on an equal footing with public shipyards, and the comparability of the proposals. The competition program requires a certification that successful proposals include comparable estimates of direct and indirect costs for both types of shipyards. But as the program is currently implemented, says GAO, the value of the certifications is limited because awards are generally based on amounts proposed by public and private shipyards, not on the comparable cost estimates. GAO recommends that the Navy should base the certifications of public and private shipyard proposals on their estimated prices and all other costs to the federal government that can be reasonably and objectively identified, and then solicit, evaluate and award work on that basis.

Maritime

AGENCY EXAMINES SHIP REPAIR BIDDING

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The US Department of Transportation estimates there are about 200,000 holders of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses, most of whom would lose eligibility under a proposed rule that would bar certain immigrants from operating commercial vehicles.</div>

The US Department of Transportation estimates there are about 200,000 holders of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses, most of whom would lose eligibility under a proposed rule that would bar certain immigrants from operating commercial vehicles.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">The trucking industry differs on how much of any impact stricter federal rules on immigrants driving in the US will have, with one side arguing that a crackdown will move the needle on subdued pricing and the other warning that only a demand rebound will end the three-year freight slump. The US Department of Transportation (USDOT) estimates there are about 200,000 holders of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs), most of whom would lose eligibility under a proposed rule that would bar certain immigrants, including asylum seekers, from operating commercial vehicles. No one has confirmed the number in the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) emergency interim rule; states issue CDLs, not the federal government. “There is a lack of clarity on where the 200,000 figure comes from in the first place,” Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management for Michigan State University, told the Journal of Commerce. Under the DOT’s proposed rule, only drivers holding H-2A, H-2B or E-2 visas would be permitted to retain non-domiciled CDLs. But the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has placed the rule on hold indefinitely. Even so, some industry executives argue that enforcement activity — rather than the rule itself — could have a more immediate effect on trucking capacity. Thom Albrecht, chief revenue officer of insurer Reliance Partners, said he believes up to 15% of current US truckload capacity may be tied to illegitimate operations, including cargo theft and carriers operating outside US rules and regulations. Albrecht emphasized that the figure is an estimate based on publicly available CDL data, not an exact count. “That doesn’t mean we have 15% excess capacity. I would suggest it’s probably 2% to 3%. It would not take a whole lot for the industry to start feeling better,” he said during a webinar last week hosted by Deutsche Bank. “There have been so many bad actors let into this industry over the last few years. That’s the single-biggest deterrent for this industry to get healthy.” Ryan Joyce, CEO of cargo security firm Genlogs, said his company found nearly 1,000 Mexican trucking companies that are legally allowed to cross the border with international freight, but also operating far beyond the permitted zone inside the US. Joyce said those carriers are engaging in cabotage — legally delivering an international load, then illegally hauling a domestic load between two US locations. “The top violator, for example, was observed hundreds of times operating as far north as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New York,” Joyce said on the Deutsche Bank webinar. He also said the non-domiciled CDL problem is tied to cargo theft, with some unsafe carriers shutting down one day, paying cash to obtain a new motor carrier number, and then reopening the next day, often referred to as “chameleon carriers.” Albrecht and Joyce are among those who expect a swift market response as insurers and USDOT increase scrutiny of illegitimate operations. “I follow certain threads of truck drivers online, and there are discussions that a lot of these non-domiciled CDLs coming up for renewal won’t be renewed,” Albrecht said on the webinar. “A lot of them have said that post-Christmas, that’s it for them. That this is the last hurrah.” Others, however, argue that the non-domiciled CDL and cabotage crackdowns will not produce a sudden spike in trucking rates. <h3>Skepticism abounds </h3>In audits conducted of Minnesota and New York, most of the violations cited by USDOT involved otherwise properly issued non-domiciled CDLs in which the license expiration date extended beyond the driver’s employment authorization, rather than wholesale ineligibility. And even when drivers with a valid non-domiciled CDL fail an English-language proficiency exam, many continue operating once highway patrol leaves the scene. Police cannot immobilize the vehicle because it is the driver, not the truck, who is taken out of service. “The driver will just wait a little bit and once the officer leaves, he’ll just drive off as if nothing happened,” said Cliff Bates, former owner of the Capital City Trucking, a trucking company that went out of business within the last two years. “Even when the driver is dropped off at the next exit, the minute the patrol leaves, he’s walking back down the highway to the truck again.” While Bates agrees that reckless driving by some non-domiciled CDL holders is a major problem, he questions how quickly the Trump administration can act. “I think they’re going to cut off the spigot for new CDLs, but I question the assumption that this administration will act swiftly with midterms coming in less than a year,” Bates told the Journal of Commerce. He said rapid enforcement could raise rates and, by extension, consumer prices. Still, broader macroeconomic factors may limit how much enforcement alone can shift the market. Slashing capacity does not address weak US manufacturing data that has softened truckload demand, according to Miller. He noted, for example, that single-family building permits have fallen 10% from last year, as of the last update before the US government shutdown, and that fracking activity isn’t going to rebound with crude oil at current prices. “There are also individuals out there with the requisite background who could re-enter the (trucking) industry rather quickly if conditions significantly improve from a pricing standpoint, which would blunt any loss of non-domiciled capacity,” Miller said. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com.</a></div>

The trucking industry differs on how much of any impact stricter federal rules on immigrants driving in the US will have, with one side arguing that a crackdown will move the needle on subdued pricing and the other warning that only a demand rebound will end the three-year freight slump. The US Department of Transportation (USDOT) estimates there are about 200,000 holders of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs), most of whom would lose eligibility under a proposed rule that would bar certain immigrants, including asylum seekers, from operating commercial vehicles. No one has confirmed the number in the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) emergency interim rule; states issue CDLs, not the federal government. “There is a lack of clarity on where the 200,000 figure comes from in the first place,” Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management for Michigan State University, told the Journal of Commerce. Under the DOT’s proposed rule, only drivers holding H-2A, H-2B or E-2 visas would be permitted to retain non-domiciled CDLs. But the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has placed the rule on hold indefinitely. Even so, some industry executives argue that enforcement activity — rather than the rule itself — could have a more immediate effect on trucking capacity. Thom Albrecht, chief revenue officer of insurer Reliance Partners, said he believes up to 15% of current US truckload capacity may be tied to illegitimate operations, including cargo theft and carriers operating outside US rules and regulations. Albrecht emphasized that the figure is an estimate based on publicly available CDL data, not an exact count. “That doesn’t mean we have 15% excess capacity. I would suggest it’s probably 2% to 3%. It would not take a whole lot for the industry to start feeling better,” he said during a webinar last week hosted by Deutsche Bank. “There have been so many bad actors let into this industry over the last few years. That’s the single-biggest deterrent for this industry to get healthy.” Ryan Joyce, CEO of cargo security firm Genlogs, said his company found nearly 1,000 Mexican trucking companies that are legally allowed to cross the border with international freight, but also operating far beyond the permitted zone inside the US. Joyce said those carriers are engaging in cabotage — legally delivering an international load, then illegally hauling a domestic load between two US locations. “The top violator, for example, was observed hundreds of times operating as far north as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New York,” Joyce said on the Deutsche Bank webinar. He also said the non-domiciled CDL problem is tied to cargo theft, with some unsafe carriers shutting down one day, paying cash to obtain a new motor carrier number, and then reopening the next day, often referred to as “chameleon carriers.” Albrecht and Joyce are among those who expect a swift market response as insurers and USDOT increase scrutiny of illegitimate operations. “I follow certain threads of truck drivers online, and there are discussions that a lot of these non-domiciled CDLs coming up for renewal won’t be renewed,” Albrecht said on the webinar. “A lot of them have said that post-Christmas, that’s it for them. That this is the last hurrah.” Others, however, argue that the non-domiciled CDL and cabotage crackdowns will not produce a sudden spike in trucking rates. Skepticism abounds In audits conducted of Minnesota and New York, most of the violations cited by USDOT involved otherwise properly issued non-domiciled CDLs in which the license expiration date extended beyond the driver’s employment authorization, rather than wholesale ineligibility. And even when drivers with a valid non-domiciled CDL fail an English-language proficiency exam, many continue operating once highway patrol leaves the scene. Police cannot immobilize the vehicle because it is the driver, not the truck, who is taken out of service. “The driver will just wait a little bit and once the officer leaves, he’ll just drive off as if nothing happened,” said Cliff Bates, former owner of the Capital City Trucking, a trucking company that went out of business within the last two years. “Even when the driver is dropped off at the next exit, the minute the patrol leaves, he’s walking back down the highway to the truck again.” While Bates agrees that reckless driving by some non-domiciled CDL holders is a major problem, he questions how quickly the Trump administration can act. “I think they’re going to cut off the spigot for new CDLs, but I question the assumption that this administration will act swiftly with midterms coming in less than a year,” Bates told the Journal of Commerce. He said rapid enforcement could raise rates and, by extension, consumer prices. Still, broader macroeconomic factors may limit how much enforcement alone can shift the market. Slashing capacity does not address weak US manufacturing data that has softened truckload demand, according to Miller. He noted, for example, that single-family building permits have fallen 10% from last year, as of the last update before the US government shutdown, and that fracking activity isn’t going to rebound with crude oil at current prices. “There are also individuals out there with the requisite background who could re-enter the (trucking) industry rather quickly if conditions significantly improve from a pricing standpoint, which would blunt any loss of non-domiciled capacity,” Miller said. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com.

Trucking News

Trucking labor

Surface

Impact of non-domiciled CDL enforcement splits US trucking sector

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Although major US gateways have made some progress in promoting data sharing on vessel arrivals, port authorities say more systemic thinking must take place among carriers and their supply chain partners to avoid a repeat of the meltdown that occurred in 2021-22.</div>

Although major US gateways have made some progress in promoting data sharing on vessel arrivals, port authorities say more systemic thinking must take place among carriers and their supply chain partners to avoid a repeat of the meltdown that occurred in 2021-22.

<div class="phx-topic">US container ports are receiving better buy-in from their supply chain partners, including ocean carriers, in sharing shipment information in advance to avoid a repeat of the congestion issues experienced during the post-pandemic cargo tsunami of 2021-22. But greater cooperation will be needed to handle the next cargo surge when it happens, port officials say. Managers of the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA), the Port of Long Beach, the South Carolina Ports Authority and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey told the Journal of Commerce Port Performance webcast last week their data-sharing efforts are still hung up on the question of what proprietary data is. “We’re getting better buy-in from the carriers, but the issue is every sector of the supply chain thinks its information is proprietary,” said Beth Rooney, port director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. “If we are going to provide efficiency, we must think more systemically and cohesively rather than just focusing on your aspect of the supply chain,” she added. In retrospect, the vessel backlogs, congested marine terminals, displaced chassis, rail car shortages and fill-to-capacity warehouses that ports faced in 2021-22 were due to a lack of communication among supply chain partners, said Joel Britt, vice president-terminal operations at the South Carolina Ports Authority. The answer is greater data sharing among the supply chain partners, he said. “We’re trying to help them to help themselves,” Britt said. <h3>Capacity utilization a key factor in port performance </h3>A key indicator of the congestion ports experienced in 2021-2022 was that the major gateways were operating at 90% to 95% capacity utilization, each of the four panelists said. Rooney noted that the industry standard for fluidity is that ports experience congestion after they reach 85% because then they have no buffer to handle cargo surges. Today, the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma is operating at 55% to 60% utilization, Long Beach at 54%, Charleston at 50% and New York-New Jersey 65%, the port officials said. A key difference in today’s supply chain fluidity is that warehouses in those regions are moving each season’s merchandise smoothly through their facilities to make room for the subsequent seasonal shipments, the port managers said. In 2021-22, the warehouses were filled to capacity, which forced importers to store inbound containers where they didn’t belong, such as at rail facilities, in truckers’ yards and on marine terminals. “It takes a long time to claw out of that,” said Jeff Bellerud, chief operating officer of the NWSA. Over the past several years, Seattle-Tacoma has developed or is in the process of locating near-dock yards for temporary storage of containers until they are needed. A second berth was added to the T-5 container terminal, a densification project at the Husky Terminal is underway and the port authority is working with railroads to develop support infrastructure to assemble longer trains and enable quicker train arrivals and departures, Bellerud said. Charleston’s Wando Terminal densification project has doubled the annual capacity of the port’s largest container terminal to 2.4 million TEUs a year, Britt said. And the Hugh Leatherman Terminal expansion project will have three berths with an annual capacity of 2.4 million TEUs, while the port’s near-dock rail project will accommodate 1 million rail moves upon completion, Britt said. Although Long Beach is a landlord port, in some ways it is resembling an operating port, said Noel Hacegaba, chief operating officer at the port. Long Beach is not taking over the operations, but rather is encouraging and contributing to measures that will improve operational efficiency. The Pier S facility is contributing to port fluidity as a logistics center for temporary storage of containers. Long Beach is developing the Pier B on-dock rail support facility for building longer inland point intermodal (IPI) trains to the US interior, a project that will be introduced in phases through 2032, Hacegaba said. In New York-New Jersey, every terminal is densifying its operations to increase capacity because the port authority has no more waterfront property to build on, Rooney said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a></div>

US container ports are receiving better buy-in from their supply chain partners, including ocean carriers, in sharing shipment information in advance to avoid a repeat of the congestion issues experienced during the post-pandemic cargo tsunami of 2021-22. But greater cooperation will be needed to handle the next cargo surge when it happens, port officials say. Managers of the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA), the Port of Long Beach, the South Carolina Ports Authority and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey told the Journal of Commerce Port Performance webcast last week their data-sharing efforts are still hung up on the question of what proprietary data is. “We’re getting better buy-in from the carriers, but the issue is every sector of the supply chain thinks its information is proprietary,” said Beth Rooney, port director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. “If we are going to provide efficiency, we must think more systemically and cohesively rather than just focusing on your aspect of the supply chain,” she added. In retrospect, the vessel backlogs, congested marine terminals, displaced chassis, rail car shortages and fill-to-capacity warehouses that ports faced in 2021-22 were due to a lack of communication among supply chain partners, said Joel Britt, vice president-terminal operations at the South Carolina Ports Authority. The answer is greater data sharing among the supply chain partners, he said. “We’re trying to help them to help themselves,” Britt said. Capacity utilization a key factor in port performance A key indicator of the congestion ports experienced in 2021-2022 was that the major gateways were operating at 90% to 95% capacity utilization, each of the four panelists said. Rooney noted that the industry standard for fluidity is that ports experience congestion after they reach 85% because then they have no buffer to handle cargo surges. Today, the Northwest Seaport Alliance of Seattle and Tacoma is operating at 55% to 60% utilization, Long Beach at 54%, Charleston at 50% and New York-New Jersey 65%, the port officials said. A key difference in today’s supply chain fluidity is that warehouses in those regions are moving each season’s merchandise smoothly through their facilities to make room for the subsequent seasonal shipments, the port managers said. In 2021-22, the warehouses were filled to capacity, which forced importers to store inbound containers where they didn’t belong, such as at rail facilities, in truckers’ yards and on marine terminals. “It takes a long time to claw out of that,” said Jeff Bellerud, chief operating officer of the NWSA. Over the past several years, Seattle-Tacoma has developed or is in the process of locating near-dock yards for temporary storage of containers until they are needed. A second berth was added to the T-5 container terminal, a densification project at the Husky Terminal is underway and the port authority is working with railroads to develop support infrastructure to assemble longer trains and enable quicker train arrivals and departures, Bellerud said. Charleston’s Wando Terminal densification project has doubled the annual capacity of the port’s largest container terminal to 2.4 million TEUs a year, Britt said. And the Hugh Leatherman Terminal expansion project will have three berths with an annual capacity of 2.4 million TEUs, while the port’s near-dock rail project will accommodate 1 million rail moves upon completion, Britt said. Although Long Beach is a landlord port, in some ways it is resembling an operating port, said Noel Hacegaba, chief operating officer at the port. Long Beach is not taking over the operations, but rather is encouraging and contributing to measures that will improve operational efficiency. The Pier S facility is contributing to port fluidity as a logistics center for temporary storage of containers. Long Beach is developing the Pier B on-dock rail support facility for building longer inland point intermodal (IPI) trains to the US interior, a project that will be introduced in phases through 2032, Hacegaba said. In New York-New Jersey, every terminal is densifying its operations to increase capacity because the port authority has no more waterfront property to build on, Rooney said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com

Port News

Container lines

North American ports

Marine terminals

Container Shipping News

More data sharing crucial to avoiding future port congestion: officials

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">As economists question whether the US consumer is finally pulling back as tariff costs increasingly show in store prices, another major generator of freight manufacturing orders is showing signs of sputtering.</div>

As economists question whether the US consumer is finally pulling back as tariff costs increasingly show in store prices, another major generator of freight manufacturing orders is showing signs of sputtering.

<div class="phx-topic">The following is the cover story for the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook.US freight demand enters 2026 with import container volumes in retraction and surface freight demand in a three-year slump.  Container volumes will be flat to down next year, according to forecasts from S&amp;P Global Ratings and Moody’s, while truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) operators steel themselves for another so-so year. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6135159_0.1.jpg"></img></div>US air cargo growth is declining, with volumes down on a year-over-year basis for six straight months through October, according to the International Air Transport Association. Intermodal growth, meanwhile, has notably fared well, rising in the mid-single digits.  Importantly, and despite negative headlines on unemployment and retail confidence, economists expect the US economy to muster on, most likely avoiding a recession. US real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 2.2% in 2026 after climbing 2% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2024, according to economists from S&amp;P Global, the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.   But while the US economy expands, US inventory levels are not. And following months of frontloading imports, US retailers and other importers are replenishing gingerly. US inventory levels mildly expanded in November, according to the Logistics Managers Index. But companies have plenty of incentives to keep inventories lean, as the index shows that carrying costs have been increasing monthly since the beginning of 2025.   Attention is focused on US consumers as they show signs of cutting back amid stubborn inflation. The major consumer pricing indicators — via the University of Michigan’s index and the Consumer Board’s survey — paint a picture of an increasingly jittery consumer, a picture that is no longer exclusive to low-income Americans. The latest US unemployment numbers from the US Labor Department show hiring expanded in October, but at a slower pace, while more workers are staying put in their current roles. As economists question whether the near-unstoppable US consumer is finally pulling back as tariff costs increasingly show in store prices, another major generator of freight is showing signs of sputtering. New US manufacturing orders in November fell to their lowest point since May, according to the US manufacturing ISM. <h3>Warehouses ‘filled with unsold stock’ </h3>A Conference Board survey on Nov. 22 revealed that falling US consumer confidence had reached its lowest since April, when the US began its tariff onslaught. “Manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global. “For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data was available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.”  Another major driver of freight demand — housing — isn’t looking too good, either. Privately owned housing starts were down 11.1% year over year in August, the latest month for which data is available from the US Census Bureau following the US government shutdown.  The US economy in 2026 “entirely hinges on the housing industrial complex unlocking itself, and I don’t see that happening quickly,” Jason Miller, a Michigan State University supply chain professor, told the Journal of Commerce. Interest rates need to drop to allow house buyers to unlock lower financing, he said.  Keith Prather, co-founder and managing partner of consultancy Armada Corporate Intelligence, has a more positive outlook but doesn’t expect an immediate jolt to the economy.  “There are a lot of different moving parts in the US economy right now,” Prather said. He pointed to the reshoring of manufacturing in the US as a trend that will — eventually — create more domestic freight demand, although not in the short term.  <h3>Feel familiar?   </h3>The weakening demand indicators and downbeat freight forecasts suggest a first half of 2026 that resembles much of 2025. The for-hire trucking ton-mile index inched up just 0.4% in the first eight months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.   The supply-demand imbalance in trucking seemed to become more punishing as 2025 progressed, with little sign of a resolution or turning point ahead.  “We really thought toward the end of last year, 2024, that we had reached an equilibrium,” said Jeff Tucker, CEO of Tucker Company Worldwide, the largest family-owned US freight brokerage. “We felt 2025 showed some promise ... [but] nobody saw the breadth and depth of the impact of the tariff regime. “ Despite the slump, intermodal volume has been resilient. Domestic container volume, excluding trailers, rose 3.5% year over year between January and October, while international intermodal increased 4.3% during the same period, according to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).   Intermodal demand in 2026, though, will continue to be heavily tied to tariffs, trucking and ports. There is a strong nexus between international intermodal and Asian imports to West Coast ports. Domestic intermodal demand is often tied to how easy it is to procure trucks and how much cost is a factor in procurement decisions. If tariffs, for example, are squeezing overall margins, then a shipper might convert less service-sensitive freight to intermodal to meet their budget targets.  <h3>Lurching into 2026  </h3>No import growth is rare in US ocean shipping. There have been just two periods in which US containerized import volumes have declined to the extent seen in recent months, said analyst John McCown. The most recent was in the spring of 2020, when retailers and other importers slashed orders on fears that retail consumption would plunge in the early days of the pandemic, and the first was 2008–09 in the wake of the financial crisis, he said.  “I think we’re looking at perhaps the worst performance year that I can recall, in 2026, in terms of volume growth,” McCown said.  S&amp;P Global Ratings on Dec. 10 forecast that US container volumes will be down 2% in 2026 from 2025, while Moody’s Ratings on Nov. 20 predicted flat to negative import volume growth. The S&amp;P Global outlook calls for a rebound in volume of 6% in 2027 on the hopes of a more stable trade policy. For all of 2025, imports are estimated to be down 1.4% from 2024 at 25.2 million TEUs, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). US retailers are signaling they will be keeping volumes at a significant year-over-year deficit at least through April. Volumes in January, February, March and April are expected to be, respectively, 10.3%, 8.5%,16.8%, and 11% lower than the corresponding months in 2025, according to the Global Port Tracker, which is created by Hackett Associates on behalf of the NRF. Port operators, too, are budgeting for declines or only slow growth in 2026. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said in November it is budgeting for total container volumes of 8.5 million TEUs in 2026, which would be just over a 2% decline from 2024. Since 2016, NY-NJ port container volumes have grown at an annual average of 4.2%. Remarkably, US containerized exports have been resilient. Volumes in the first nine months of 2025 were up 2.1% from a year earlier, with containerized agricultural exports 1.2% higher in the same period, according to the latest available data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. In a twist of trade, US export growth is outpacing gains in imports, or a lack thereof. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.Journal of Commerce editorial staff contributed to this report. </div>

The following is the cover story for the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. US freight demand enters 2026 with import container volumes in retraction and surface freight demand in a three-year slump.  Container volumes will be flat to down next year, according to forecasts from S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s, while truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) operators steel themselves for another so-so year. US air cargo growth is declining, with volumes down on a year-over-year basis for six straight months through October, according to the International Air Transport Association. Intermodal growth, meanwhile, has notably fared well, rising in the mid-single digits.  Importantly, and despite negative headlines on unemployment and retail confidence, economists expect the US economy to muster on, most likely avoiding a recession. US real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 2.2% in 2026 after climbing 2% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2024, according to economists from S&P Global, the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.   But while the US economy expands, US inventory levels are not. And following months of frontloading imports, US retailers and other importers are replenishing gingerly. US inventory levels mildly expanded in November, according to the Logistics Managers Index. But companies have plenty of incentives to keep inventories lean, as the index shows that carrying costs have been increasing monthly since the beginning of 2025.   Attention is focused on US consumers as they show signs of cutting back amid stubborn inflation. The major consumer pricing indicators — via the University of Michigan’s index and the Consumer Board’s survey — paint a picture of an increasingly jittery consumer, a picture that is no longer exclusive to low-income Americans. The latest US unemployment numbers from the US Labor Department show hiring expanded in October, but at a slower pace, while more workers are staying put in their current roles. As economists question whether the near-unstoppable US consumer is finally pulling back as tariff costs increasingly show in store prices, another major generator of freight is showing signs of sputtering. New US manufacturing orders in November fell to their lowest point since May, according to the US manufacturing ISM. Warehouses ‘filled with unsold stock’ A Conference Board survey on Nov. 22 revealed that falling US consumer confidence had reached its lowest since April, when the US began its tariff onslaught. “Manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global. “For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data was available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.”  Another major driver of freight demand — housing — isn’t looking too good, either. Privately owned housing starts were down 11.1% year over year in August, the latest month for which data is available from the US Census Bureau following the US government shutdown.  The US economy in 2026 “entirely hinges on the housing industrial complex unlocking itself, and I don’t see that happening quickly,” Jason Miller, a Michigan State University supply chain professor, told the Journal of Commerce. Interest rates need to drop to allow house buyers to unlock lower financing, he said.  Keith Prather, co-founder and managing partner of consultancy Armada Corporate Intelligence, has a more positive outlook but doesn’t expect an immediate jolt to the economy.  “There are a lot of different moving parts in the US economy right now,” Prather said. He pointed to the reshoring of manufacturing in the US as a trend that will — eventually — create more domestic freight demand, although not in the short term.  Feel familiar?   The weakening demand indicators and downbeat freight forecasts suggest a first half of 2026 that resembles much of 2025. The for-hire trucking ton-mile index inched up just 0.4% in the first eight months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.   The supply-demand imbalance in trucking seemed to become more punishing as 2025 progressed, with little sign of a resolution or turning point ahead.  “We really thought toward the end of last year, 2024, that we had reached an equilibrium,” said Jeff Tucker, CEO of Tucker Company Worldwide, the largest family-owned US freight brokerage. “We felt 2025 showed some promise ... [but] nobody saw the breadth and depth of the impact of the tariff regime. “ Despite the slump, intermodal volume has been resilient. Domestic container volume, excluding trailers, rose 3.5% year over year between January and October, while international intermodal increased 4.3% during the same period, according to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).   Intermodal demand in 2026, though, will continue to be heavily tied to tariffs, trucking and ports. There is a strong nexus between international intermodal and Asian imports to West Coast ports. Domestic intermodal demand is often tied to how easy it is to procure trucks and how much cost is a factor in procurement decisions. If tariffs, for example, are squeezing overall margins, then a shipper might convert less service-sensitive freight to intermodal to meet their budget targets.  Lurching into 2026  No import growth is rare in US ocean shipping. There have been just two periods in which US containerized import volumes have declined to the extent seen in recent months, said analyst John McCown. The most recent was in the spring of 2020, when retailers and other importers slashed orders on fears that retail consumption would plunge in the early days of the pandemic, and the first was 2008–09 in the wake of the financial crisis, he said.  “I think we’re looking at perhaps the worst performance year that I can recall, in 2026, in terms of volume growth,” McCown said.  S&P Global Ratings on Dec. 10 forecast that US container volumes will be down 2% in 2026 from 2025, while Moody’s Ratings on Nov. 20 predicted flat to negative import volume growth. The S&P Global outlook calls for a rebound in volume of 6% in 2027 on the hopes of a more stable trade policy. For all of 2025, imports are estimated to be down 1.4% from 2024 at 25.2 million TEUs, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). US retailers are signaling they will be keeping volumes at a significant year-over-year deficit at least through April. Volumes in January, February, March and April are expected to be, respectively, 10.3%, 8.5%,16.8%, and 11% lower than the corresponding months in 2025, according to the Global Port Tracker, which is created by Hackett Associates on behalf of the NRF. Port operators, too, are budgeting for declines or only slow growth in 2026. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said in November it is budgeting for total container volumes of 8.5 million TEUs in 2026, which would be just over a 2% decline from 2024. Since 2016, NY-NJ port container volumes have grown at an annual average of 4.2%. Remarkably, US containerized exports have been resilient. Volumes in the first nine months of 2025 were up 2.1% from a year earlier, with containerized agricultural exports 1.2% higher in the same period, according to the latest available data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. In a twist of trade, US export growth is outpacing gains in imports, or a lack thereof. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .Journal of Commerce editorial staff contributed to this report.

Air Cargo

Supply chain

US freight industry enters 2026 with low growth expectations

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Alliance members Ocean Network Express, HMM and Yang Ming said they were “closely monitoring” the situation around the Red Sea with the focus on the safety of crew, ship and cargo.</div>

Alliance members Ocean Network Express, HMM and Yang Ming said they were “closely monitoring” the situation around the Red Sea with the focus on the safety of crew, ship and cargo.

<div class="phx-topic">The Premier Alliance unveiled its updated 2026 network Monday with services from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and US East Coast continuing to divert around southern Africa to avoid passing through the Red Sea. Premier Alliance members Ocean Network Express (ONE), HMM and Yang Ming said they were “closely monitoring” the situation around the Red Sea with the focus on the safety of the crew, ship and cargo. ONE CEO Jeremy Nixon said in a statement that the 2026 product was designed to be flexible and reliable to support global trade “while prioritizing safety and stability amid geopolitical uncertainties.” South Korean flagship HMM noted the “evolving situation in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal” and promised “timely communication and support” for customers should services return to the shorter route. Peter Sand, chief analyst for rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said the risk assessment currently being carried out by ocean carriers would consider the ability, opportunity and intent of Houthi militants to attack ships from their base in Yemen. “Though we have seen a growing interest in Suez transits in the past months, it’s still not at a point where the large-scale return is imminent,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce. “Premier Alliance have not been leading the ‘testing of waters,’ and we know that Japanese owners [of ONE] in general are amongst the most risk-averse ship owners.” CMA CGM’s Indamex service from Jan. 15 will transit the Suez Canal on fronthaul and backhaul voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast. <h3>Tempering market optimism </h3>Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce contributor, said although there was growing market optimism related to a return to the Red Sea, there was little clarity to support this. “Today, the Houthi Ministry of Foreign Affairs cautioned against what they termed ‘continued Zionist escalation in Gaza and flagrant violations of the ceasefire agreement,’” Jensen wrote in a LinkedIn post Monday. “This can be interpreted as a thinly veiled threat that they could choose to end their self-imposed ceasefire against merchant shipping unless the situation in Gaza develops in a way they see as more favorable,” he added. While the Premier Alliance rolls out its 2026 network, Sand said one area where shippers will be looking closely is schedule reliability. Xeneta data shows that Premier Alliance began at a global reliability of 36% in the first quarter, sliding to 22% in the third quarter before inching up to 23% thus far in the fourth quarter. Sand said across the services offered under the 2026 network, it appears the alliance will call fewer ports and, “that in itself could prove to be one pathway to better on-time performance.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="00f898cc-0bf5-4e4d-80d3-6db9454b1165"></dynamic-object></div>In its updated 2026 product, HMM said its role in the Premier Alliance network would be bolstered by additional capacity from new vessels that will be delivered through 2026. The carrier has 20 ships on order — 12 vessels of 13,000 TEUs and eight of 14,000 TEUs. “This updated network aims to deliver improved service reliability by means of an optimized global structure ... the refined network is designed to strengthen overall operational stability whilst preserving the company’s broad international reach,” HMM said. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The Premier Alliance unveiled its updated 2026 network Monday with services from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and US East Coast continuing to divert around southern Africa to avoid passing through the Red Sea. Premier Alliance members Ocean Network Express (ONE), HMM and Yang Ming said they were “closely monitoring” the situation around the Red Sea with the focus on the safety of the crew, ship and cargo. ONE CEO Jeremy Nixon said in a statement that the 2026 product was designed to be flexible and reliable to support global trade “while prioritizing safety and stability amid geopolitical uncertainties.” South Korean flagship HMM noted the “evolving situation in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal” and promised “timely communication and support” for customers should services return to the shorter route. Peter Sand, chief analyst for rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said the risk assessment currently being carried out by ocean carriers would consider the ability, opportunity and intent of Houthi militants to attack ships from their base in Yemen. “Though we have seen a growing interest in Suez transits in the past months, it’s still not at a point where the large-scale return is imminent,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce. “Premier Alliance have not been leading the ‘testing of waters,’ and we know that Japanese owners [of ONE] in general are amongst the most risk-averse ship owners.” CMA CGM’s Indamex service from Jan. 15 will transit the Suez Canal on fronthaul and backhaul voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast. Tempering market optimism Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce contributor, said although there was growing market optimism related to a return to the Red Sea, there was little clarity to support this. “Today, the Houthi Ministry of Foreign Affairs cautioned against what they termed ‘continued Zionist escalation in Gaza and flagrant violations of the ceasefire agreement,’” Jensen wrote in a LinkedIn post Monday. “This can be interpreted as a thinly veiled threat that they could choose to end their self-imposed ceasefire against merchant shipping unless the situation in Gaza develops in a way they see as more favorable,” he added. While the Premier Alliance rolls out its 2026 network, Sand said one area where shippers will be looking closely is schedule reliability. Xeneta data shows that Premier Alliance began at a global reliability of 36% in the first quarter, sliding to 22% in the third quarter before inching up to 23% thus far in the fourth quarter. Sand said across the services offered under the 2026 network, it appears the alliance will call fewer ports and, “that in itself could prove to be one pathway to better on-time performance.” In its updated 2026 product, HMM said its role in the Premier Alliance network would be bolstered by additional capacity from new vessels that will be delivered through 2026. The carrier has 20 ships on order — 12 vessels of 13,000 TEUs and eight of 14,000 TEUs. “This updated network aims to deliver improved service reliability by means of an optimized global structure ... the refined network is designed to strengthen overall operational stability whilst preserving the company’s broad international reach,” HMM said. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Premier Alliance’s 2026 network to maintain Red Sea diversions

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Manila-based company is tapping into moves by the governments of Brazil and South Africa to enable their ports to handle steadily rising container volume and calls by larger vessels.</div>

The Manila-based company is tapping into moves by the governments of Brazil and South Africa to enable their ports to handle steadily rising container volume and calls by larger vessels.

<div class="phx-topic">International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI) is expanding operations at two key hubs — Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro and South Africa’s Durban — as part of efforts to improve the competitiveness of port networks in the developing nations. The Manila-based terminal operator has announced a R$948 million (US$174 million) investment aimed at expanding and modernizing operations at its ICTSI Rio Brasil Terminal at the Port of Rio de Janeiro. Brazil’s Minister of Ports and Airports Silvio Costa Filho said a trend of rising volume and growing ship sizes across the national port system was driving a need to increase container handling competitiveness. “As of Nov. 30, the Port of Rio had already grown 14% in cargo movement [this year],” Filho said in a statement. “This is important because, when we put the port in partnership with the federal government, the state government and municipalities, we strengthen the country’s production chain and logistics. “It’s an investment ... that will be essential for us to expand operations here at the port, going from 440,000 TEUs to 750,000 TEUs, and in the future, perhaps reaching 1.2 million,” he added. The expansion of the Rio Brasil Terminal will allow the facility to handle increasingly large vessels that call the east coast of South America, including new Panamax and post-Panamax vessels up to 366 meters long and with a capacity of more than 13,000 TEUs. “This investment is essential for Rio to increase its efficiency and maintain its competitiveness and its ability to absorb part of the demand currently concentrated in Santos,” said Roberto Lopes, CEO of Rio Brasil Terminal. “We are talking about a project that benefits not only the terminal, but the entire economy of the Southeast and Midwest of Brazil.” Lopes said the investment was in addition to investments in the Rio-Minas and Rio-Suzano logistics corridors, where ICTSI has already invested more than R$190 million (US$35 million) with an emphasis on rail transport. “We will not only expand the capacity of the Rio Brasil Terminal, but also be able to help mitigate the congestion observed in the Port of Santos, better distributing the port demand in the country,” he said. <h3>Durban legal challenge dismissed </h3>In another agreement reached by ICTSI, the Manila-headquartered company signed a 25-year partnership agreement with South Africa state-owned Transnet to operate the strategic Durban Container Terminal (DCT) Pier 2. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. The deal with Transnet was agreed to in July 2023 but held up by a legal challenge from APM Terminals disputing the award. The agreement can now proceed following the dismissal of the challenge by the KwaZulu-Natal High Court in October. Under terms of the deal, Transnet will hold a majority shareholding in a new special purpose venture, Newco, while ICTSI will be responsible for operation of the terminal, ICTSI said in a statement. The introduction of new equipment and technology is expected to increase capacity at DCT2 from 2 million TEUs to 2.8 million TEUs, improve gross crane moves per hour from 18 to 28 and raise ship working hours from 60 to 120. “Private sector participation [PSP] transactions are an important element of our strategy to modernize, expand and improve our key assets,” Transnet CEO Michelle Phillips said in the statement. “It is also a big step in our efforts to improve efficiencies across our terminals and transform our ports into world-class hubs.” The partnership with ICTSI is part of broader port reform underway in South Africa aimed at easing congestion and raising efficiency, both of which have been at dismal levels in recent years. Kuehne + Nagel’s port visibility tool SeaExplorer notes “heavily disrupted operations” at Durban this week with ship waiting times of almost four days. In the latest Container Port Performance Index (CPPI), jointly developed by the World Bank and Journal of Commerce parent S&amp;P Global and released in September, the Port of Durban ranked as the worst-performing port globally, positioned 403rd out of 403. DCT is the largest container terminal in South Africa, handling almost 50% of the country’s volume. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

International Container Terminal Services Inc. (ICTSI) is expanding operations at two key hubs — Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro and South Africa’s Durban — as part of efforts to improve the competitiveness of port networks in the developing nations. The Manila-based terminal operator has announced a R$948 million (US$174 million) investment aimed at expanding and modernizing operations at its ICTSI Rio Brasil Terminal at the Port of Rio de Janeiro. Brazil’s Minister of Ports and Airports Silvio Costa Filho said a trend of rising volume and growing ship sizes across the national port system was driving a need to increase container handling competitiveness. “As of Nov. 30, the Port of Rio had already grown 14% in cargo movement [this year],” Filho said in a statement. “This is important because, when we put the port in partnership with the federal government, the state government and municipalities, we strengthen the country’s production chain and logistics. “It’s an investment ... that will be essential for us to expand operations here at the port, going from 440,000 TEUs to 750,000 TEUs, and in the future, perhaps reaching 1.2 million,” he added. The expansion of the Rio Brasil Terminal will allow the facility to handle increasingly large vessels that call the east coast of South America, including new Panamax and post-Panamax vessels up to 366 meters long and with a capacity of more than 13,000 TEUs. “This investment is essential for Rio to increase its efficiency and maintain its competitiveness and its ability to absorb part of the demand currently concentrated in Santos,” said Roberto Lopes, CEO of Rio Brasil Terminal. “We are talking about a project that benefits not only the terminal, but the entire economy of the Southeast and Midwest of Brazil.” Lopes said the investment was in addition to investments in the Rio-Minas and Rio-Suzano logistics corridors, where ICTSI has already invested more than R$190 million (US$35 million) with an emphasis on rail transport. “We will not only expand the capacity of the Rio Brasil Terminal, but also be able to help mitigate the congestion observed in the Port of Santos, better distributing the port demand in the country,” he said. Durban legal challenge dismissed In another agreement reached by ICTSI, the Manila-headquartered company signed a 25-year partnership agreement with South Africa state-owned Transnet to operate the strategic Durban Container Terminal (DCT) Pier 2. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. The deal with Transnet was agreed to in July 2023 but held up by a legal challenge from APM Terminals disputing the award. The agreement can now proceed following the dismissal of the challenge by the KwaZulu-Natal High Court in October. Under terms of the deal, Transnet will hold a majority shareholding in a new special purpose venture, Newco, while ICTSI will be responsible for operation of the terminal, ICTSI said in a statement. The introduction of new equipment and technology is expected to increase capacity at DCT2 from 2 million TEUs to 2.8 million TEUs, improve gross crane moves per hour from 18 to 28 and raise ship working hours from 60 to 120. “Private sector participation [PSP] transactions are an important element of our strategy to modernize, expand and improve our key assets,” Transnet CEO Michelle Phillips said in the statement. “It is also a big step in our efforts to improve efficiencies across our terminals and transform our ports into world-class hubs.” The partnership with ICTSI is part of broader port reform underway in South Africa aimed at easing congestion and raising efficiency, both of which have been at dismal levels in recent years. Kuehne + Nagel’s port visibility tool SeaExplorer notes “heavily disrupted operations” at Durban this week with ship waiting times of almost four days. In the latest Container Port Performance Index (CPPI), jointly developed by the World Bank and Journal of Commerce parent S&P Global and released in September, the Port of Durban ranked as the worst-performing port globally, positioned 403rd out of 403. DCT is the largest container terminal in South Africa, handling almost 50% of the country’s volume. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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Terminal operator ICTSI expands South America, Africa footprints

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