<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Air cargo may have had a year to forget in 2019, but in Europe it will be remembered as the year seafood exports to Asian markets, especially Norway to China, started to really take off.</div>

Air cargo may have had a year to forget in 2019, but in Europe it will be remembered as the year seafood exports to Asian markets, especially Norway to China, started to really take off.

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<div>Demand for fresh Norwegian salmon from China’s hungry markets has returned quickly in the first full year since Beijing lifted an import ban imposed on the fish in 2015, providing one of the few bright spots for Europe’s struggling air cargo industry.China banned fresh salmon from Norway in 2015 over fears of the presence of a virus in the fish, only lifting the trade embargo in the second half of 2018. Export volume began to grow with robust demand continuing through 2019.With a shelf life of seven to 14 days, transporting fresh salmon overseas requires air shipment, and the air...

Demand for fresh Norwegian salmon from China’s hungry markets has returned quickly in the first full year since Beijing lifted an import ban imposed on the fish in 2015, providing one of the few bright spots for Europe’s struggling air cargo industry. China banned fresh salmon from Norway in 2015 over fears of the presence of a virus in the fish, only lifting the trade embargo in the second half of 2018. Export volume began to grow with robust demand continuing through 2019. With a shelf life of seven to 14 days, transporting fresh salmon overseas requires air shipment, and the air freight volume of fresh and chilled seafood flown from Norway and Denmark from January through November 2019 was up almost 12 percent year over year, according to analyst WorldACD. That’s in contrast to a 5.1 percent decline reported in overall air cargo originating in Europe during the 11-month period. Norway is responsible for much of this growth as the world’s leading seafood exporter, and fish comprises 80 percent of its air cargo exports, two-thirds of which is flown fresh to countries across Asia. Frozen seafood is transported by truck and ocean. Victoria Braathen, Norwegian Seafood Council director for China, described 2019 as salmon’s comeback year in the Chinese market and was confident the upward trend would continue through 2020 and beyond. “We see a very positive development in the Norway-China seafood trade,” she said. “There is a growing interest for imported seafood, and over the course of the last three years, the import of seafood to China has increased by close to 30 percent.” Braathen told JOC.com the volume of fresh whole salmon exports to China grew 94 percent year over year in 2019 to 25,676 tons. Total value of those exports was $178 million (1.582 billion Norwegian krone), an increase of 93 percent over 2018. A resilient market The strength of the Norwegian seafood market can be seen in the way it was able to shrug off China’s salmon ban. Data from IHS Markit’s Global Trade Atlas shows that even with the fresh salmon ban in place, seafood exports from Norway and Denmark to China rose 24 percent in 2017. Braathen said the export growth was due to increasing trade of both whitefish and pelagic species, which was accompanied by a 23 percent increase in value. “While salmon to the market at this time was limited, a range of species saw a positive development such as mackerel, haddock, capelin, and cod,” she said. The lifting of China’s ban on Norwegian salmon was also felt in rival markets. Export volume of UK seafood to China, its third-largest market behind France and the United States, declined 5 percent in 2019 year over year, according to James Park, head of insights at the Scottish Salmon Producers’ Organization. But a problem for airlines serving the seafood market using freighters — seafood exports from Northern Europe are split 50/50 between freighters and passenger planes — is that the aircraft must be flown virtually empty to Norway or Denmark to pick up the cargo. Further impacting margins are lower rates that prevail on the backhaul trade. Click to Enlarge Data from the TAC Index shows rates from Frankfurt Airport in Germany, one of Europe’s leading air cargo hubs, have fallen steadily all through 2019, down almost 20 percent in the first week of January compared with the same time last year. Martin Langaas, director of traffic development and cargo for Norwegian airport operator Avinor, said much of the seafood exported from Europe had to be trucked from Norway to European airport gateways such as Frankfurt and flown on to Asia, taking advantage of the low rates. “There is an imbalance of air cargo between Asia and Europe as demand and rates are much higher from Asia to Europe than from Europe to Asia,” he told JOC.com. “Salmon being a huge air cargo commodity therefore benefits from low rates to Asia.” Steven Polmans, chairman of The International Air Cargo Association (TIACA), said the trade imbalance was not limited to seafood, with large amounts of capacity to African markets such as Kenya or Ethiopia flown in empty. He told JOC.com that salmon exports from Northern Europe showed strong growth last year, and despite the low rates available on the eastbound leg, profitability for the carriers was based on round-trip calculations. That profitability on a global level continues to be threatened by the effects of the trade war between the US and China, the deterioration in world trade, and a broad-based slowing in global economic growth, according to Alexandre de Juniac, director general and CEO of the International Air Transport Association (IATA). He called the decline reported in November air cargo demand “a big disappointment” considering the fourth quarter is the industry’s traditional peak season. “Signs of a thawing in US-China trade tensions are good news, but trading conditions at present remain very challenging,” de Juniac said in a statement. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler .

Air Cargo

Year of the salmon lifts Norway-China air cargo

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Israel-based carrier is urging shareholders to reelect its current slate of directors later this month after alternate nominees were put forth by dissident shareholders. </div>

The Israel-based carrier is urging shareholders to reelect its current slate of directors later this month after alternate nominees were put forth by dissident shareholders.

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<div class="phx-topic">A group of shareholders has launched a proxy fight to get their candidates elected to the board of Zim Integrated Shipping Services after the ocean carrier rejected <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/zim-says-reviewing-buyout-offers-including-one-from-ceo-6123362">an initial buyout offer from its chief executive</a> as too low and continues to review other potential bids. The Israel-based ocean carrier said in a statement Tuesday that a proxy advisor recommended shareholders reelect eight current board members at the company’s Dec. 26 annual meeting. The advisor also recommended that Zim shareholders vote against a slate of three directors nominated by an investor group that “made no attempt to work constructively with the board nor provided any suggestions for improving the company’s business or any other insight into how to create long-term value for shareholders,” Zim said. The investor group — Mor Gemel &amp; Pension Ltd., Reading Capital Ltd., and Sparta 24 — said in a letter nominating its candidates that it holds 5% of the company’s stock, Zim said. The investor group did not release the required stock exchange disclosures or a public statement about its proxy fight. There was no contact information available for the investors. The investor group put up their nominees after a report that Zim Chief Executive Eli Glickman made a buyout offer that was less than the company’s cash balance, Zim said in its statement. While Zim evaluated Glickman’s proposal, it “unanimously determined that it materially undervalued the company,” the carrier said. “The rumor that the board was willing to accept such an undervalued bid was clearly false,” Zim said. The investor group wants the company to issue a special dividend, Zim said, which would undermine Zim’s “liquidity and create substantial risk to shareholder value given our charter-intensive model, which requires adequate cash to navigate industry cycles.” Zim’s board said that it’s continuing a review of strategic alternatives that could include a merger or other another transaction. As part of that review, Zim has set up a transaction committee and appointed two additional outside directors to review any offers. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A group of shareholders has launched a proxy fight to get their candidates elected to the board of Zim Integrated Shipping Services after the ocean carrier rejected an initial buyout offer from its chief executive as too low and continues to review other potential bids. The Israel-based ocean carrier said in a statement Tuesday that a proxy advisor recommended shareholders reelect eight current board members at the company’s Dec. 26 annual meeting. The advisor also recommended that Zim shareholders vote against a slate of three directors nominated by an investor group that “made no attempt to work constructively with the board nor provided any suggestions for improving the company’s business or any other insight into how to create long-term value for shareholders,” Zim said. The investor group — Mor Gemel & Pension Ltd., Reading Capital Ltd., and Sparta 24 — said in a letter nominating its candidates that it holds 5% of the company’s stock, Zim said. The investor group did not release the required stock exchange disclosures or a public statement about its proxy fight. There was no contact information available for the investors. The investor group put up their nominees after a report that Zim Chief Executive Eli Glickman made a buyout offer that was less than the company’s cash balance, Zim said in its statement. While Zim evaluated Glickman’s proposal, it “unanimously determined that it materially undervalued the company,” the carrier said. “The rumor that the board was willing to accept such an undervalued bid was clearly false,” Zim said. The investor group wants the company to issue a special dividend, Zim said, which would undermine Zim’s “liquidity and create substantial risk to shareholder value given our charter-intensive model, which requires adequate cash to navigate industry cycles.” Zim’s board said that it’s continuing a review of strategic alternatives that could include a merger or other another transaction. As part of that review, Zim has set up a transaction committee and appointed two additional outside directors to review any offers. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Zim faces proxy fight after rejecting CEO’s buyout bid

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Average intermodal train speeds among the four US Class I railroads have exceeded year-ago levels for 30 consecutive weeks dating back to early May, according to the Association of American Railroads. </div>

Average intermodal train speeds among the four US Class I railroads have exceeded year-ago levels for 30 consecutive weeks dating back to early May, according to the Association of American Railroads.

<div class="phx-topic">US Class I railroads have delivered a year of consistent, reliable intermodal service based on publicly reported metrics such as train speeds, railcars idling with containers on top, and the number of trains stopped while in transit. Among the four US Class I railroads, average intermodal train speeds have exceeded year-ago levels for 30 consecutive weeks dating back to early May, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Train speeds were higher for all US railroads between January and November compared with a year ago. “Our intermodal speed, our performance in the terminals, our performance with the truck turns has been impeccable, to say the least,” CSX CEO Mike Cory said at the UBS Industrials and Transportation Conference on Dec. 2. “Our ability to absorb the incoming volume is there without any additional assets. With the speed, we’ve been setting records for both dwell and speed across the network.” Both Union Pacific Railroad (UP) and Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) posted their highest average intermodal train speeds in the first 11 months since 2020, according to the AAR data. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="d9b4d6bd-0250-45bf-9d62-66214a1d8bcf"></dynamic-object></div>An average of 10 intermodal trains per day have been held due to crew issues, locomotive issues or other problems, according to data from the US Surface Transportation Board (STB), less than half the combined average of 2018, 2019, 2023 and 2024. Strong service can help railroads and intermodal marketing companies (IMCs) shed the lingering stigma of service disruptions over the past decade. The rail network was near a virtual meltdown during the worst of the pandemic-related freight surge in 2021 and 2022, a memory that has stayed with some shippers. Even before the pandemic, the rail networks suffered multiple service disruptions in the 2010s. UP’s service on the West Coast has stood out. It is the only railroad to have a positive Intermodal Service Z-Score every week of this year. The Z-Score is a Journal of Commerce metric that measures how far each railroad diverges from its own history on train speeds, trains held and idle rail cars. The positive Z-Score indicates that UP has outperformed its own average in all three categories since the beginning of the year dating back to 2017. UP has accomplished the feat while also handling more than 20% year-over-year growth in domestic intermodal volumes since July in Southern California, according to data provider RailState. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="752fed3a-b216-4e51-a58e-5cdfd2113fe9"></dynamic-object></div>Among both western railroads, domestic volume from the Southwest to the Southcentral US jumped by 11% between January and October, according to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA). Traffic has also surged nearly 22% from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest during the same period, a route where only UP runs. BNSF does not have track directly connecting California with Washington state. “Our domestic intermodal business has been a positive for us, and we’ve seen quite a bit of over-the-road conversion,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said at the UBS Conference. <h3>East Coast service also strong </h3>Demand within the CSX and Norfolk Southern domestic intermodal networks has also ticked up this year. Volume from the Southeast to the Northeast jumped 8.1% year over year between January and October, according to IANA. That includes routes connecting warehouses in Florida and Georgia to those in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Domestic container volumes from the Midwest to the Southeast, which includes Chicago and the Ohio Valley, rose 9.2% year over year between January and October, IANA data shows. IMC J.B. Hunt Transport Services, which reported lower year-over-year volume on the West Coast in the third quarter, grew 6% on local East Coast loads moving on CSX and NS. “The service we provide has been really, really strong and as good a service as we’ve ever provided in my whole career,” Darren Field, president of J.B. Hunt intermodal, said at the UBS event last week. Brad Delco, J.B. Hunt’s CFO, added that growing local East Coast intermodal volume, where the price differential to trucking can be razor thin, is a “true testament to the collective service product that both J.B. Hunt and the railroads provide.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US Class I railroads have delivered a year of consistent, reliable intermodal service based on publicly reported metrics such as train speeds, railcars idling with containers on top, and the number of trains stopped while in transit. Among the four US Class I railroads, average intermodal train speeds have exceeded year-ago levels for 30 consecutive weeks dating back to early May, according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR). Train speeds were higher for all US railroads between January and November compared with a year ago. “Our intermodal speed, our performance in the terminals, our performance with the truck turns has been impeccable, to say the least,” CSX CEO Mike Cory said at the UBS Industrials and Transportation Conference on Dec. 2. “Our ability to absorb the incoming volume is there without any additional assets. With the speed, we’ve been setting records for both dwell and speed across the network.” Both Union Pacific Railroad (UP) and Norfolk Southern Railway (NS) posted their highest average intermodal train speeds in the first 11 months since 2020, according to the AAR data. An average of 10 intermodal trains per day have been held due to crew issues, locomotive issues or other problems, according to data from the US Surface Transportation Board (STB), less than half the combined average of 2018, 2019, 2023 and 2024. Strong service can help railroads and intermodal marketing companies (IMCs) shed the lingering stigma of service disruptions over the past decade. The rail network was near a virtual meltdown during the worst of the pandemic-related freight surge in 2021 and 2022, a memory that has stayed with some shippers. Even before the pandemic, the rail networks suffered multiple service disruptions in the 2010s. UP’s service on the West Coast has stood out. It is the only railroad to have a positive Intermodal Service Z-Score every week of this year. The Z-Score is a Journal of Commerce metric that measures how far each railroad diverges from its own history on train speeds, trains held and idle rail cars. The positive Z-Score indicates that UP has outperformed its own average in all three categories since the beginning of the year dating back to 2017. UP has accomplished the feat while also handling more than 20% year-over-year growth in domestic intermodal volumes since July in Southern California, according to data provider RailState. Among both western railroads, domestic volume from the Southwest to the Southcentral US jumped by 11% between January and October, according to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA). Traffic has also surged nearly 22% from the Southwest to the Pacific Northwest during the same period, a route where only UP runs. BNSF does not have track directly connecting California with Washington state. “Our domestic intermodal business has been a positive for us, and we’ve seen quite a bit of over-the-road conversion,” Kenny Rocker, UP’s executive vice president of sales, said at the UBS Conference. East Coast service also strong Demand within the CSX and Norfolk Southern domestic intermodal networks has also ticked up this year. Volume from the Southeast to the Northeast jumped 8.1% year over year between January and October, according to IANA. That includes routes connecting warehouses in Florida and Georgia to those in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Domestic container volumes from the Midwest to the Southeast, which includes Chicago and the Ohio Valley, rose 9.2% year over year between January and October, IANA data shows. IMC J.B. Hunt Transport Services, which reported lower year-over-year volume on the West Coast in the third quarter, grew 6% on local East Coast loads moving on CSX and NS. “The service we provide has been really, really strong and as good a service as we’ve ever provided in my whole career,” Darren Field, president of J.B. Hunt intermodal, said at the UBS event last week. Brad Delco, J.B. Hunt’s CFO, added that growing local East Coast intermodal volume, where the price differential to trucking can be razor thin, is a “true testament to the collective service product that both J.B. Hunt and the railroads provide.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Rail News

Intermodal providers

Surface

Rail service shakes off prior disruptions to close 2025 on high note

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The move is part of the Chinese government’s ambition to accelerate the development of China as a maritime power, China Shipbuilding Group said.</div>

The move is part of the Chinese government’s ambition to accelerate the development of China as a maritime power, China Shipbuilding Group said.

<div class="phx-topic">China Cosco Shipping Group has signed a $7 billion deal with China Shipbuilding Group for a massive fleet renewal and expansion covering 87 ships, including container ships and multipurpose vessels, that is the largest single order for new ships ever placed with the Chinese shipbuilder. The deal was confirmed by China Shipbuilding in a statement Monday. China Cosco Shipping, parent company of ship operating subsidiaries including Cosco Shipping Holdings and Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers, has not commented on the deal. No details on the number of different ships or sizes were given. There were also no details on the time frame for vessel deliveries. The orders are likely to be spread around several China Shipbuilding Group shipyards, including Guangzhou Shipyard International, which is currently building a 70,000-deadweight metric ton (dwt) semi-submersible vessel for Cosco Shipping Heavy Transport for likely delivery in 2027. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="00f898cc-0bf5-4e4d-80d3-6db9454b1165"></dynamic-object></div>The deal could also mark a departure for Cosco Shipping because its most recent container ship orders, including a deal for 14 18,500-TEU container ships placed in April, have been contracted with Cosco’s own shipyards including Dalian COSCO KHI Ship Engineering Co. and Nantong COSCO KHI Ship Engineering Co. “This new shipbuilding cooperation is a milestone in the joint development of the two groups,” China Shipbuilding said in its statement. The deal is also part of the Chinese government’s ambition to accelerate the development of China as a maritime power, the statement added. “At present, the global shipping and shipbuilding industry is facing profound changes, and the deep integration of green and low-carbon and digital intelligence technology has become an important direction for industrial development,” China Shipbuilding said. “Facing the future, the two sides will take this signing as a new starting point...” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="9d9c4551-6e03-4e7a-b6ec-fea88b4d9485"></dynamic-object></div>Globally, there are currently 10.4 million TEUs on order, equivalent to 32% of the existing fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Cosco Shipping Holdings is currently the world’s fourth-largest container line with an in-service fleet totaling 3.45 million TEUs and a further 722,000 TEUs on order, according to Sea-web. Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers has more than 150 ships, including MPVs and 20 heavy-lift semi-submersible ships. “If Cosco’s newly placed orders approach 700,000 TEUs, that would put Cosco in the race to potentially also overtake [second-place] Maersk,” Lars Jensen, CEO of consultant Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce contributor, said in a LinkedIn post Tuesday. “Of course, with the strong caveat that carriers also adjust fleet size by buying and selling vessels secondhand as well as vary the portion of their fleet on charter.” Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

China Cosco Shipping Group has signed a $7 billion deal with China Shipbuilding Group for a massive fleet renewal and expansion covering 87 ships, including container ships and multipurpose vessels, that is the largest single order for new ships ever placed with the Chinese shipbuilder. The deal was confirmed by China Shipbuilding in a statement Monday. China Cosco Shipping, parent company of ship operating subsidiaries including Cosco Shipping Holdings and Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers, has not commented on the deal. No details on the number of different ships or sizes were given. There were also no details on the time frame for vessel deliveries. The orders are likely to be spread around several China Shipbuilding Group shipyards, including Guangzhou Shipyard International, which is currently building a 70,000-deadweight metric ton (dwt) semi-submersible vessel for Cosco Shipping Heavy Transport for likely delivery in 2027. The deal could also mark a departure for Cosco Shipping because its most recent container ship orders, including a deal for 14 18,500-TEU container ships placed in April, have been contracted with Cosco’s own shipyards including Dalian COSCO KHI Ship Engineering Co. and Nantong COSCO KHI Ship Engineering Co. “This new shipbuilding cooperation is a milestone in the joint development of the two groups,” China Shipbuilding said in its statement. The deal is also part of the Chinese government’s ambition to accelerate the development of China as a maritime power, the statement added. “At present, the global shipping and shipbuilding industry is facing profound changes, and the deep integration of green and low-carbon and digital intelligence technology has become an important direction for industrial development,” China Shipbuilding said. “Facing the future, the two sides will take this signing as a new starting point...” Globally, there are currently 10.4 million TEUs on order, equivalent to 32% of the existing fleet, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Cosco Shipping Holdings is currently the world’s fourth-largest container line with an in-service fleet totaling 3.45 million TEUs and a further 722,000 TEUs on order, according to Sea-web. Cosco Shipping Specialized Carriers has more than 150 ships, including MPVs and 20 heavy-lift semi-submersible ships. “If Cosco’s newly placed orders approach 700,000 TEUs, that would put Cosco in the race to potentially also overtake [second-place] Maersk,” Lars Jensen, CEO of consultant Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce contributor, said in a LinkedIn post Tuesday. “Of course, with the strong caveat that carriers also adjust fleet size by buying and selling vessels secondhand as well as vary the portion of their fleet on charter.” Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Cosco Shipping inks $7 billion deal for big fleet expansion

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">For the first time, US regulators can evaluate a rail merger not on assertions, but on what the data actually shows — and they can do it in hours, not months. </div>

For the first time, US regulators can evaluate a rail merger not on assertions, but on what the data actually shows — and they can do it in hours, not months.

<div class="phx-topic">The most important factor that will shape the Union Pacific (UP)-Norfolk Southern (NS) merger review isn’t network size, labor or the familiar debate over competition. It’s the arrival of artificial intelligence (AI) in a regulatory process that has never had this level of analytical horsepower. For the first time, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) can evaluate a rail merger not on assertions, but on what the data actually shows — and they can do it in hours, not months. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6131406_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Once UP and NS submit their formal application, the full filing becomes part of the public STB docket. With limited exceptions for sealed exhibits, every page will be posted online and fully downloadable. Anyone — regulators, competitors, ports, shippers, analysts — will have the same access at the same moment. I’ve already set up the prompts, tools, and workflows to download the filing the moment it posts, and will begin examining the sections that matter most, the way an operator would, not just an analyst. That accessibility alone changes the dynamic. In past mergers, volume itself was a defensive moat. This time, AI ensures everyone can analyze the document as quickly as the applicants who wrote it. Modern AI systems can ingest a 4,000-page filing in minutes and begin stress-testing it. Contradictions that once hid in appendices — mismatches between narrative claims and actual performance, optimistic cycle-time assumptions, recycled language posing as new analysis — surface immediately. A line-by-line integrity audit that previously required months now takes a few hours. That speed forces a different caliber of evidence. When UP and NS promise corridor-level velocity improvements, the STB will test those claims against historic dwell in the same terminals. When they assert minimal competitive harm, DOJ will compare their modeling with real origin/destination patterns, interchange frequencies, and lane elasticity. What once passed as “directionally accurate” will now be judged against observed performance. AI also exposes the control layers that traditionally operated in the shadows. In earlier writing, I described how TTX — the shared pool governing nearly every well car, autorack, and flatcar in North America — creates its own physics inside the network. Under conventional review, those mechanics were too complex and opaque to analyze meaningfully. With AI, they become visible. Regulators and stakeholders will be able to examine car-flow patterns, identify cycle-time asymmetries and determine whether the merged network benefits simply from having more gravitational pull inside a pooled system. Patterns that once felt anecdotal will become measurable. <h3>AI ‘does not bend to narrative’ </h3>Ports will feel this transparency immediately. Equipment velocity has always been a stronger determinant of port competitiveness than berth depth or crane count. AI will allow ports to model how the merger affects inland access — whether discretionary cargo tilts toward the merged network, whether high-capacity wells cycle more reliably in certain export corridors, and whether inland terminals feeding those ports become structurally advantaged. These are no longer theoretical concerns; they are quantifiable outcomes. Competitors will apply the same capabilities. Canadian National, BNSF, CSX and Canadian Pacific Kansas City will not submit abstract protests; they will submit counter-models. They will show where routing options shrink, where interchange loses practical meaning, and where inland terminals shift from shared gateways to effective chokepoints. AI turns what used to be rhetoric into structured evidence that regulators must consider. UP and NS will use AI as well — they would be negligent not to — but AI does not bend to narrative. It rewards consistency, exposes wishful thinking, and highlights unsupported assumptions. It cannot hide whether a merged network delivers sustained service improvement or simply consolidates power. It cannot disguise whether velocity gains are proven or aspirational. This is the real shift. AI forces a merit-based review in a way no previous merger has experienced. If UP-NS can demonstrate that a unified network produces faster turns, more reliable inland flows, stronger port connectivity, and broader access for shippers, AI will validate those claims. If the merger instead creates velocity asymmetry, reduces routing flexibility, or concentrates quiet control of pooled assets inside one dominant carrier, AI will reveal that as well. Paul Tonsager has held executive roles at Maersk, CN Rail, CN Worldwide, Coyote (RXO) and Patriot Rail. He is the founder of Integrated Multimodal Solutions LLC and author of the Substack newsletter Signals &amp; Switches. Contact him at  <a href="mailto:paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io">paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io</a>. </div>

The most important factor that will shape the Union Pacific (UP)-Norfolk Southern (NS) merger review isn’t network size, labor or the familiar debate over competition. It’s the arrival of artificial intelligence (AI) in a regulatory process that has never had this level of analytical horsepower. For the first time, the Surface Transportation Board (STB) and the Department of Justice (DOJ) can evaluate a rail merger not on assertions, but on what the data actually shows — and they can do it in hours, not months. Once UP and NS submit their formal application, the full filing becomes part of the public STB docket. With limited exceptions for sealed exhibits, every page will be posted online and fully downloadable. Anyone — regulators, competitors, ports, shippers, analysts — will have the same access at the same moment. I’ve already set up the prompts, tools, and workflows to download the filing the moment it posts, and will begin examining the sections that matter most, the way an operator would, not just an analyst. That accessibility alone changes the dynamic. In past mergers, volume itself was a defensive moat. This time, AI ensures everyone can analyze the document as quickly as the applicants who wrote it. Modern AI systems can ingest a 4,000-page filing in minutes and begin stress-testing it. Contradictions that once hid in appendices — mismatches between narrative claims and actual performance, optimistic cycle-time assumptions, recycled language posing as new analysis — surface immediately. A line-by-line integrity audit that previously required months now takes a few hours. That speed forces a different caliber of evidence. When UP and NS promise corridor-level velocity improvements, the STB will test those claims against historic dwell in the same terminals. When they assert minimal competitive harm, DOJ will compare their modeling with real origin/destination patterns, interchange frequencies, and lane elasticity. What once passed as “directionally accurate” will now be judged against observed performance. AI also exposes the control layers that traditionally operated in the shadows. In earlier writing, I described how TTX — the shared pool governing nearly every well car, autorack, and flatcar in North America — creates its own physics inside the network. Under conventional review, those mechanics were too complex and opaque to analyze meaningfully. With AI, they become visible. Regulators and stakeholders will be able to examine car-flow patterns, identify cycle-time asymmetries and determine whether the merged network benefits simply from having more gravitational pull inside a pooled system. Patterns that once felt anecdotal will become measurable. AI ‘does not bend to narrative’ Ports will feel this transparency immediately. Equipment velocity has always been a stronger determinant of port competitiveness than berth depth or crane count. AI will allow ports to model how the merger affects inland access — whether discretionary cargo tilts toward the merged network, whether high-capacity wells cycle more reliably in certain export corridors, and whether inland terminals feeding those ports become structurally advantaged. These are no longer theoretical concerns; they are quantifiable outcomes. Competitors will apply the same capabilities. Canadian National, BNSF, CSX and Canadian Pacific Kansas City will not submit abstract protests; they will submit counter-models. They will show where routing options shrink, where interchange loses practical meaning, and where inland terminals shift from shared gateways to effective chokepoints. AI turns what used to be rhetoric into structured evidence that regulators must consider. UP and NS will use AI as well — they would be negligent not to — but AI does not bend to narrative. It rewards consistency, exposes wishful thinking, and highlights unsupported assumptions. It cannot hide whether a merged network delivers sustained service improvement or simply consolidates power. It cannot disguise whether velocity gains are proven or aspirational. This is the real shift. AI forces a merit-based review in a way no previous merger has experienced. If UP-NS can demonstrate that a unified network produces faster turns, more reliable inland flows, stronger port connectivity, and broader access for shippers, AI will validate those claims. If the merger instead creates velocity asymmetry, reduces routing flexibility, or concentrates quiet control of pooled assets inside one dominant carrier, AI will reveal that as well. Paul Tonsager has held executive roles at Maersk, CN Rail, CN Worldwide, Coyote (RXO) and Patriot Rail. He is the founder of Integrated Multimodal Solutions LLC and author of the Substack newsletter Signals & Switches. Contact him at   paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io .

North-American rail

AI will change UP-NS merger review in ways the industry has never seen

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Mumbai-based forwarder executives have linked the pricing gains mainly to lower capacity amid multiple blank sailings during the month covering CMA CGM’s Epic service and Ocean Network Express’ IOX loop.</div>

Mumbai-based forwarder executives have linked the pricing gains mainly to lower capacity amid multiple blank sailings during the month covering CMA CGM’s Epic service and Ocean Network Express’ IOX loop.

<div class="phx-topic">Ocean carriers on India-Europe trades that navigated significant rate erosion in the past few months have been able to turn the tables in December amid lower capacity, according to new data obtained by the Journal of Commerce from local freight forwarders. Average freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates on the trade lane have climbed between $300 and $500 per FEU month to month, forwarders say. Booking rates from West India (Nhava Sheva/Mundra) to North Europe (Felixstowe/London Gateway) now stand between $1,100 and $1,400 per FEU, varying from carrier to carrier. That compares with early-November carrier pricing of $800 to $900 per FEU for the same port pair, which was the lowest level in two years. Mumbai-based forwarder executives have linked the December pricing gains mainly to lower capacity due to multiple blank sailings during the month covering CMA CGM’s Epic service and Ocean Network Express’ IOX loop. “It’s a good recovery for the carriers after suffering months of steady declines,” one source said. “Demand remains a wild card for them, [and there are] indications of a delayed onset of the seasonal grape export trade that typically begins in January.” <h3>Mid-month rate hike </h3>Lead carriers on the trade are preparing to implement a modest upward revision in their tariff rates for India-North Europe/Mediterranean loads. For example, Hapag-Lloyd said in a customer advisory it will increase published rates out of Nhava Sheva/Mundra and Ennore/Chennai by $200 per TEU/FEU for all sailings effective Dec. 16. Meanwhile, the Gemini Cooperation has expanded the port rotation of its India-Europe network, individually known as the “ME1” for Maersk and the “IOS” for Hapag-Lloyd, with a new stop at Wilhelmshaven in Germany beginning in late January in addition to the Hamburg call already in place. The updated rotation will be Jebel Ali, Mundra, Nhava Sheva, Salalah, Tanger Med, Rotterdam, Wilhelmshaven, Hamburg, London Gateway, Tanger Med, Salalah and back to Jebel Ali. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

Ocean carriers on India-Europe trades that navigated significant rate erosion in the past few months have been able to turn the tables in December amid lower capacity, according to new data obtained by the Journal of Commerce from local freight forwarders. Average freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates on the trade lane have climbed between $300 and $500 per FEU month to month, forwarders say. Booking rates from West India (Nhava Sheva/Mundra) to North Europe (Felixstowe/London Gateway) now stand between $1,100 and $1,400 per FEU, varying from carrier to carrier. That compares with early-November carrier pricing of $800 to $900 per FEU for the same port pair, which was the lowest level in two years. Mumbai-based forwarder executives have linked the December pricing gains mainly to lower capacity due to multiple blank sailings during the month covering CMA CGM’s Epic service and Ocean Network Express’ IOX loop. “It’s a good recovery for the carriers after suffering months of steady declines,” one source said. “Demand remains a wild card for them, [and there are] indications of a delayed onset of the seasonal grape export trade that typically begins in January.” Mid-month rate hike Lead carriers on the trade are preparing to implement a modest upward revision in their tariff rates for India-North Europe/Mediterranean loads. For example, Hapag-Lloyd said in a customer advisory it will increase published rates out of Nhava Sheva/Mundra and Ennore/Chennai by $200 per TEU/FEU for all sailings effective Dec. 16. Meanwhile, the Gemini Cooperation has expanded the port rotation of its India-Europe network, individually known as the “ME1” for Maersk and the “IOS” for Hapag-Lloyd, with a new stop at Wilhelmshaven in Germany beginning in late January in addition to the Hamburg call already in place. The updated rotation will be Jebel Ali, Mundra, Nhava Sheva, Salalah, Tanger Med, Rotterdam, Wilhelmshaven, Hamburg, London Gateway, Tanger Med, Salalah and back to Jebel Ali. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Asia-Europe

India-Europe carriers push December rates higher on tighter capacity

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

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