<div>Copyright 2003, Traffic World, Inc.An investor group led by DHL Airways Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Dasburg will purchase all of DHL Airway''s outstanding stock, the company announced May 21. Dasburg said that the transaction will further solidify the airline''s U.S. control and management. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed.The other members of the investment group are Richard C. Blum, chairman of San Francisco-based Blum Capital Partners, L.P., a private equity firm, and Michael R. Klein, a Washington, D.C. business executive and lawyer who is co-founder and chairman of the board of directors of CoStar Group, Inc.Dasburg currently...

Copyright 2003, Traffic World, Inc. An investor group led by DHL Airways Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Dasburg will purchase all of DHL Airway''s outstanding stock, the company announced May 21. Dasburg said that the transaction will further solidify the airline''s U.S. control and management. Terms of the transaction were not disclosed. The other members of the investment group are Richard C. Blum, chairman of San Francisco-based Blum Capital Partners, L.P., a private equity firm, and Michael R. Klein, a Washington, D.C. business executive and lawyer who is co-founder and chairman of the board of directors of CoStar Group, Inc. Dasburg currently owns 5 percent of the airline. The remaining shares of DHL Airways are being purchased from Idaho private investor William A. Robinson and from DHL Holdings (USA) Inc. The prospective owners expect to complete the acquisition of DHL Airways by June 30. The acquisition is subject to Department of Transportation approval.

Air Cargo

Dasburg, DHL cut deal

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Canceled renewable energy projects in the US totaled $35 billion in 2025 as more project funds left the country than came in amid the federal government’s shifting policies to prioritize fossil fuels. </div>

Canceled renewable energy projects in the US totaled $35 billion in 2025 as more project funds left the country than came in amid the federal government’s shifting policies to prioritize fossil fuels.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">Demand for renewable energy project cargo in the US — including components linked to electric vehicle (EV), battery/storage, hydrogen and wind developments — could be setting up for a fall as project losses have begun to far outpace gains. Companies canceled nearly $35 billion in US renewable energy projects in 2025, and for the first time in three years there were more project investments leaving the US than coming in, according to a report published earlier this month by Washington, D.C.-based environmental policy research group E2. That comes as the Trump administration has initiated sweeping changes to the US energy landscape, shifting policies and funding to prioritize fossil fuels while downgrading support and resources for renewable energy projects. “Companies abandoned, closed or downsized nearly three dollars in clean energy investment for every one dollar announced, reversing the net flow of capital that had defined the post-2022 clean energy expansion,” the E2 report read, referencing $12.3 billion in new project announcements in 2025. Manufacturing facilities accounted for nearly all of the year’s losses, with $30.2 billion in abandoned projects. The bulk of the year’s cancellations came from EV and battery/storage projects, with over $21 billion lost in each segment. Figures in the analysis do not match the overall totals, as some projects are categorized into multiple sectors. Felix Schoeller, chief commercial officer for multipurpose vessel (MPV) operator AAL Shipping, told the Journal of Commerce that there’s been a noticeable shift in renewable energy project cargo activity for the US. AAL is a global transporter of components for wind energy projects, which have experienced widespread downsizing across offshore and onshore developments in the US and accounted for $1.3 billion in project losses in 2025, according to the E2 analysis. “The US government is placing greater emphasis on carbon-based power generation investments and broader oil and gas project developments rather than wind energy,” Scholler said, citing the delay and cancellation of a number of offshore wind projects, including some that were previously approved. “As a result, AAL has observed a significant reduction in wind cargo volumes in North America and an elevated demand for components for large-scale infrastructure and oil and gas projects.” Scholler cited AAL’s recent transport of over 2,500 battery energy storage system (BESS) units to the US from China in response to a surge in demand for high-capacity BESS components. BESS configurations are widely used as onsite power sources for oil and gas facilities. The Trump administration last year cut nearly $8 billion in funding for clean energy projects, issued directives aimed at deregulation and expanded leasing access for fossil fuels, and permanently reinstated a 100% tax write-off for qualifying oil and gas assets. <h3>Projects could shift overseas </h3>Some of the US renewable energy sector’s most consequential cancellations — and one of the largest withdrawal periods on record — came in December, when eight projects totaling $5.1 billion were put on the chopping block, according to the E2 analysis. South Korean manufacturer SK On scrapped a $2.8 billion EV/battery storage project in Tennessee, while Ford called off a $1.5 billion EV manufacturing plant in Ohio as the auto maker continues to scale back and restructure its EV facilities. December’s project losses were over 20 times as much as the month’s gains, which totaled $238 million for six new manufacturing projects. Announcements included a $170 million battery project for Desert Mountain Energy in New Mexico, a $26.7 million Toyo Solar facility in Texas and a Ford/Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) battery project for an unspecified dollar amount in Kentucky. US project reversals could usher in an eventual reallocation of clean energy projects and their subsequent cargo demands to other parts of the world. “Investment that does not move forward in the United States does not disappear — it is increasingly redirected to foreign markets and US competitors offering more predictable environments, clearer incentives and greater long-term certainty,” the E2 report stated. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at <a href="mailto:autumn@autumngiusti.com">autumn@autumngiusti.com</a>. </div>

Demand for renewable energy project cargo in the US — including components linked to electric vehicle (EV), battery/storage, hydrogen and wind developments — could be setting up for a fall as project losses have begun to far outpace gains. Companies canceled nearly $35 billion in US renewable energy projects in 2025, and for the first time in three years there were more project investments leaving the US than coming in, according to a report published earlier this month by Washington, D.C.-based environmental policy research group E2. That comes as the Trump administration has initiated sweeping changes to the US energy landscape, shifting policies and funding to prioritize fossil fuels while downgrading support and resources for renewable energy projects. “Companies abandoned, closed or downsized nearly three dollars in clean energy investment for every one dollar announced, reversing the net flow of capital that had defined the post-2022 clean energy expansion,” the E2 report read, referencing $12.3 billion in new project announcements in 2025. Manufacturing facilities accounted for nearly all of the year’s losses, with $30.2 billion in abandoned projects. The bulk of the year’s cancellations came from EV and battery/storage projects, with over $21 billion lost in each segment. Figures in the analysis do not match the overall totals, as some projects are categorized into multiple sectors. Felix Schoeller, chief commercial officer for multipurpose vessel (MPV) operator AAL Shipping, told the Journal of Commerce that there’s been a noticeable shift in renewable energy project cargo activity for the US. AAL is a global transporter of components for wind energy projects, which have experienced widespread downsizing across offshore and onshore developments in the US and accounted for $1.3 billion in project losses in 2025, according to the E2 analysis. “The US government is placing greater emphasis on carbon-based power generation investments and broader oil and gas project developments rather than wind energy,” Scholler said, citing the delay and cancellation of a number of offshore wind projects, including some that were previously approved. “As a result, AAL has observed a significant reduction in wind cargo volumes in North America and an elevated demand for components for large-scale infrastructure and oil and gas projects.” Scholler cited AAL’s recent transport of over 2,500 battery energy storage system (BESS) units to the US from China in response to a surge in demand for high-capacity BESS components. BESS configurations are widely used as onsite power sources for oil and gas facilities. The Trump administration last year cut nearly $8 billion in funding for clean energy projects, issued directives aimed at deregulation and expanded leasing access for fossil fuels, and permanently reinstated a 100% tax write-off for qualifying oil and gas assets. Projects could shift overseas Some of the US renewable energy sector’s most consequential cancellations — and one of the largest withdrawal periods on record — came in December, when eight projects totaling $5.1 billion were put on the chopping block, according to the E2 analysis. South Korean manufacturer SK On scrapped a $2.8 billion EV/battery storage project in Tennessee, while Ford called off a $1.5 billion EV manufacturing plant in Ohio as the auto maker continues to scale back and restructure its EV facilities. December’s project losses were over 20 times as much as the month’s gains, which totaled $238 million for six new manufacturing projects. Announcements included a $170 million battery project for Desert Mountain Energy in New Mexico, a $26.7 million Toyo Solar facility in Texas and a Ford/Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) battery project for an unspecified dollar amount in Kentucky. US project reversals could usher in an eventual reallocation of clean energy projects and their subsequent cargo demands to other parts of the world. “Investment that does not move forward in the United States does not disappear — it is increasingly redirected to foreign markets and US competitors offering more predictable environments, clearer incentives and greater long-term certainty,” the E2 report stated. Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at autumn@autumngiusti.com .

Breakbulk carriers

Energy projects

Heavy-haul transport

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Maritime

Reversal in US clean energy investment signals shift in project cargo momentum

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Shippers would be wise to offload the pain of building AI proficiency to their logistics providers until the benefits become clearer.</div>

Shippers would be wise to offload the pain of building AI proficiency to their logistics providers until the benefits become clearer.

<div class="phx-topic">While the world braces itself for the true impacts of artificial intelligence (AI), shippers and logistics services providers (LSPs) face a decision on whether to jump in with both feet or wait watchfully from the sidelines. Key to that decision, though, is the reality that it takes less time than ever to build software, which shrinks the disadvantage that a company has playing catching up. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6169078_0.1.jpg"></img></div>“Time is compressing,” a software vendor to the freight brokerage industry told the Journal of Commerce at the Manifest supply chain technology conference in Las Vegas this week. “The development cycles are shortening.” A shipper at the conference wondered whether it needed to be on the bleeding edge of adopting AI in its organization, or whether it could hang back. Practically speaking, the speed of development in the technology world means that shippers, in particular, won’t necessarily face a penalty for feeling overwhelmed when it comes to how and where to adopt AI. They can also, in the meantime, shift some of that AI burden onto their service providers. That’s because LSPs face a different mandate than shippers. The main priorities of LSPs are to work with capacity providers and serve shippers. Any technology investment must touch one of those areas. So there is a clearer imperative for intermediaries to invest in AI because there are fewer priorities to juggle. Shippers, meanwhile, juggle an array of needs inside and outside of logistics and transportation. Other needs in the company may trump the need to build or buy AI capability tied to freight transportation or global trade. Additionally, the pace of change within AI technology circles disincentivizes the ultimate user of the technology from diving headlong into commitments that might be obsolete in months. Take for instance recent developments around coding developments from OpenAI and Anthropic that seem to be rapidly advancing how quickly products can be built. What advantage would a shipper have to be on the bleeding edge right now, when the location of that bleeding edge changes almost weekly? <h3>Playing catch-up faster </h3>The pace of being able to catch up also matters. With software and product development speeding up, the time it takes to adopt and incorporate products will shrink as well. So if a two-year head start in using a traditional software-as-a-service tool historically represented a major edge over a peer, a shipper that waited now can theoretically leapfrog in a way it couldn’t in previous software adoption cycles. This shouldn’t serve as an excuse for shippers, and especially LSPs, to wait things out. Rather, they should be researching and testing in a minimally disruptive way so they understand how things such as AI agents are affecting transportation and trade processes that matter to their businesses. Being informationally proactive but financially conservative is probably the best course to take in a technology environment this fast-moving. It would be hard to understate just how much AI dominated conversations at Manifest. The industry is wrestling with how AI will change the shape of current headcounts and future workforces, how it will be priced, and whether it will do the work of existing software. None of these issues are clear, especially as the large AI developers put the ability to build applications in the hands of non-technical people. That could change how and when software is bought, maintained, updated, and customized. It’s certainly an exciting and daunting future, but one where shippers may want to hang back, with eyes open, and let their LSPs suffer the heavy bruising. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

While the world braces itself for the true impacts of artificial intelligence (AI), shippers and logistics services providers (LSPs) face a decision on whether to jump in with both feet or wait watchfully from the sidelines. Key to that decision, though, is the reality that it takes less time than ever to build software, which shrinks the disadvantage that a company has playing catching up. “Time is compressing,” a software vendor to the freight brokerage industry told the Journal of Commerce at the Manifest supply chain technology conference in Las Vegas this week. “The development cycles are shortening.” A shipper at the conference wondered whether it needed to be on the bleeding edge of adopting AI in its organization, or whether it could hang back. Practically speaking, the speed of development in the technology world means that shippers, in particular, won’t necessarily face a penalty for feeling overwhelmed when it comes to how and where to adopt AI. They can also, in the meantime, shift some of that AI burden onto their service providers. That’s because LSPs face a different mandate than shippers. The main priorities of LSPs are to work with capacity providers and serve shippers. Any technology investment must touch one of those areas. So there is a clearer imperative for intermediaries to invest in AI because there are fewer priorities to juggle. Shippers, meanwhile, juggle an array of needs inside and outside of logistics and transportation. Other needs in the company may trump the need to build or buy AI capability tied to freight transportation or global trade. Additionally, the pace of change within AI technology circles disincentivizes the ultimate user of the technology from diving headlong into commitments that might be obsolete in months. Take for instance recent developments around coding developments from OpenAI and Anthropic that seem to be rapidly advancing how quickly products can be built. What advantage would a shipper have to be on the bleeding edge right now, when the location of that bleeding edge changes almost weekly? Playing catch-up faster The pace of being able to catch up also matters. With software and product development speeding up, the time it takes to adopt and incorporate products will shrink as well. So if a two-year head start in using a traditional software-as-a-service tool historically represented a major edge over a peer, a shipper that waited now can theoretically leapfrog in a way it couldn’t in previous software adoption cycles. This shouldn’t serve as an excuse for shippers, and especially LSPs, to wait things out. Rather, they should be researching and testing in a minimally disruptive way so they understand how things such as AI agents are affecting transportation and trade processes that matter to their businesses. Being informationally proactive but financially conservative is probably the best course to take in a technology environment this fast-moving. It would be hard to understate just how much AI dominated conversations at Manifest. The industry is wrestling with how AI will change the shape of current headcounts and future workforces, how it will be priced, and whether it will do the work of existing software. None of these issues are clear, especially as the large AI developers put the ability to build applications in the hands of non-technical people. That could change how and when software is bought, maintained, updated, and customized. It’s certainly an exciting and daunting future, but one where shippers may want to hang back, with eyes open, and let their LSPs suffer the heavy bruising. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Logistics Technology News

Supply chain

Rapid pace of AI development suggests shippers should be patient

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The product launched this week by Triumph, called Capacity Intelligence, allows brokers to identify lanes where it needs a deeper pool of reliable carriers.</div>

The product launched this week by Triumph, called Capacity Intelligence, allows brokers to identify lanes where it needs a deeper pool of reliable carriers.

<div class="phx-topic">Freight financial services and technology provider Triumph has unveiled a new product it says is aimed at allowing freight brokers to “turn transactional [truckload] capacity into relationships.” The product, called Capacity Intelligence, was launched this week and gives brokers a tool to identify lanes where it can strengthen existing carrier relationships or source capacity from Triumph’s network of vetted carriers. The goal of the product, Triumph said, is to create cost savings for brokers as they manage an environment where spot rates are increasing. “Capacity Intelligence delivers on the promise of combining predictive rates and service-level performance benchmarks with the Triumph network’s uniquely granular and reliable transaction data,” Dawn Favier, president of Triumph Intelligence, said in a statement. “This tool empowers freight brokers to move beyond reactive, transactional sourcing and build a resilient, high-quality strategic carrier network.” That carrier network includes thousands of carriers using Triumph for financial services, most notably factoring and quick-pay products. Capacity Intelligence was released five months after Triumph launched another product, Pricing and Performance Intelligence, to help brokers incorporate carrier-specific performance data and available capacity beyond their existing network into pricing decisions. Taken together, the tools can be seen as a load board of sorts in that they allow brokers to piece together, in real time, capacity availability and carrier performance metrics to assess the suitability for a specific load they need to move on behalf of shipper customers. Both tools are built on Triumph’s <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/triumph-acquires-broker-focused-pricing-technology-provider-greenscreensai-5951484">acquisitions of pricing intelligence provider Greenscreens.ai</a> and carrier performance measurement tool Isometric Technologies in early 2025 and late 2024, respectively. The enhancements to carrier pricing and performance information expanded Triumph’s reach from a freight financial service provider to one helping brokers with freight procurement decision-making. The tools also cloud the load board picture further, with the largest providers, DAT Freight &amp; Analytics and Truckstop.com, having themselves waded into financial services over the last year through acquisitions of factoring services companies. Additionally, carrier vetting platform Highway, a strategic partner of Triumph, unveiled a load board in the second half of 2025. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Freight financial services and technology provider Triumph has unveiled a new product it says is aimed at allowing freight brokers to “turn transactional [truckload] capacity into relationships.” The product, called Capacity Intelligence, was launched this week and gives brokers a tool to identify lanes where it can strengthen existing carrier relationships or source capacity from Triumph’s network of vetted carriers. The goal of the product, Triumph said, is to create cost savings for brokers as they manage an environment where spot rates are increasing. “Capacity Intelligence delivers on the promise of combining predictive rates and service-level performance benchmarks with the Triumph network’s uniquely granular and reliable transaction data,” Dawn Favier, president of Triumph Intelligence, said in a statement. “This tool empowers freight brokers to move beyond reactive, transactional sourcing and build a resilient, high-quality strategic carrier network.” That carrier network includes thousands of carriers using Triumph for financial services, most notably factoring and quick-pay products. Capacity Intelligence was released five months after Triumph launched another product, Pricing and Performance Intelligence, to help brokers incorporate carrier-specific performance data and available capacity beyond their existing network into pricing decisions. Taken together, the tools can be seen as a load board of sorts in that they allow brokers to piece together, in real time, capacity availability and carrier performance metrics to assess the suitability for a specific load they need to move on behalf of shipper customers. Both tools are built on Triumph’s acquisitions of pricing intelligence provider Greenscreens.ai and carrier performance measurement tool Isometric Technologies in early 2025 and late 2024, respectively. The enhancements to carrier pricing and performance information expanded Triumph’s reach from a freight financial service provider to one helping brokers with freight procurement decision-making. The tools also cloud the load board picture further, with the largest providers, DAT Freight & Analytics and Truckstop.com, having themselves waded into financial services over the last year through acquisitions of factoring services companies. Additionally, carrier vetting platform Highway, a strategic partner of Triumph, unveiled a load board in the second half of 2025. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Truck brokers

Truckload

New truckload capacity product provides another load board option for brokers

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The rule will likely mean a slow trickle of capacity exiting the trucking market, although the industry and analysts are split on the exact impact.</div>

The rule will likely mean a slow trickle of capacity exiting the trucking market, although the industry and analysts are split on the exact impact.

<div class="phx-topic">The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has released its final rule on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs), something that has the trucking industry split on its potential impact on capacity and pricing. The rule, released Wednesday, would limit future CDL eligibility to foreign nationals who hold H-2A, H-2B, or E-2 nonimmigrant status. It would eliminate other immigrants in the US on H-1B visas, as well as asylum seekers, those here on temporary protected status, and those part of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals from Canada or Mexico program. The Interim Final Rule (IFR) would also require state agencies to check all applicants against federal databases to verify immigration status and perform in-person renewals every year. It also eliminates an employment authorization document as valid proof of lawful presence in the US. The rule is forward-looking and does not apply retroactively to existing licenses on day one. “With regard to drivers who currently hold an unexpired non-domiciled CLP [commercial learner’s permit] or CDL that was properly issued under pre-IFR rules, nothing in this final rule requires states to proactively revoke those licenses,” the rule states. “However, at the next license transaction following the effective date of this final rule, states are required to apply the new eligibility standards.” The FMCSA states that H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visa applicants undergo vetting that includes US consular assessment of English proficiency relevant to commercial driving safety, such as the ability to understand traffic signs and respond to official inquiries. <h3>Impact unclear </h3>The US Department of Transportation has estimated that up to 194,000 non-domiciled CDLs might be susceptible to not being renewed under the new rules, raising questions about the effect on capacity in the market. Some industry executives argue that enforcement activity — rather than the rule itself — <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/impact-of-non-domiciled-cdl-enforcement-splits-us-trucking-sector-6135184">could have a more immediate effect on capacity</a>. However, it is unclear how many non-domiciled CDL holders would ultimately be impacted, as enforcement would gradually occur over the lifespan of existing CDLs, which are valid for five years. There is also the risk of litigation. A truck driver named Jorge Rivera Lujan, along with multiple public interest groups, filed a lawsuit challenging an emergency rule covering the CDL issue last October. An appeals court issued an administrative stay and requested an update from the FMCSA to update the court on March 3, 2026. “Resolution of the court cases challenging the final rule will take a long time,” law firm Scopelitis, Garvin, Light, Hanson &amp; Feary wrote in a December note to clients. “It is possible any challenge may ultimately end up at the Supreme Court.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) has released its final rule on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs), something that has the trucking industry split on its potential impact on capacity and pricing. The rule, released Wednesday, would limit future CDL eligibility to foreign nationals who hold H-2A, H-2B, or E-2 nonimmigrant status. It would eliminate other immigrants in the US on H-1B visas, as well as asylum seekers, those here on temporary protected status, and those part of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals from Canada or Mexico program. The Interim Final Rule (IFR) would also require state agencies to check all applicants against federal databases to verify immigration status and perform in-person renewals every year. It also eliminates an employment authorization document as valid proof of lawful presence in the US. The rule is forward-looking and does not apply retroactively to existing licenses on day one. “With regard to drivers who currently hold an unexpired non-domiciled CLP [commercial learner’s permit] or CDL that was properly issued under pre-IFR rules, nothing in this final rule requires states to proactively revoke those licenses,” the rule states. “However, at the next license transaction following the effective date of this final rule, states are required to apply the new eligibility standards.” The FMCSA states that H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visa applicants undergo vetting that includes US consular assessment of English proficiency relevant to commercial driving safety, such as the ability to understand traffic signs and respond to official inquiries. Impact unclear The US Department of Transportation has estimated that up to 194,000 non-domiciled CDLs might be susceptible to not being renewed under the new rules, raising questions about the effect on capacity in the market. Some industry executives argue that enforcement activity — rather than the rule itself — could have a more immediate effect on capacity . However, it is unclear how many non-domiciled CDL holders would ultimately be impacted, as enforcement would gradually occur over the lifespan of existing CDLs, which are valid for five years. There is also the risk of litigation. A truck driver named Jorge Rivera Lujan, along with multiple public interest groups, filed a lawsuit challenging an emergency rule covering the CDL issue last October. An appeals court issued an administrative stay and requested an update from the FMCSA to update the court on March 3, 2026. “Resolution of the court cases challenging the final rule will take a long time,” law firm Scopelitis, Garvin, Light, Hanson & Feary wrote in a December note to clients. “It is possible any challenge may ultimately end up at the Supreme Court.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Trucking labor

Surface

USDOT releases interim final rule on non-domiciled CDL holders

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Downward pressure on rates is set to continue with just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs scheduled to be delivered this year. </div>

Downward pressure on rates is set to continue with just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs scheduled to be delivered this year.

<div class="phx-topic">The urgent need to increase the virtually non-existent scrapping of old container ships as new vessels flood online is a key challenge for the industry as it navigates an increasingly oversupplied market, according to carriers and analysts. Pre-tax quarterly losses have already appeared on the balance sheets of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-benefits-face-looming-challenge-from-oversupplied-market-maersk-ceo-6164887">Maersk</a>, its first in two years; and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/frontloading-drags-one-to-a-loss-in-its-fiscal-third-quarter-6161263">Ocean Network Express</a>, its first quarterly loss since the second quarter of 2018; with <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fourth-quarter-rate-slump-drags-down-hapag-lloyds-2025-financials-6166755">Hapag-Lloyd</a> and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/hmm-profitability-falls-as-carrier-warns-of-growing-supply-demand-imbalance-6167842">HMM</a> both reporting steep declines in fourth-quarter profitability. Downward pressure on rates is set to continue with just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs scheduled to be delivered this year. That will be followed by 2.3 million TEUs of capacity due for delivery in 2027 and 3.4 million TEUs in 2028, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. There is no sign of carriers pausing ship orders, either. A record 4.8 million TEUs of new ship capacity was ordered in 2025, and that momentum has carried into 2026 with another 290,000 TEUs ordered in January, according to maritime consultancy Drewry. Even as the capacity overhang is pushed further out, scrapping remains at negligible levels. Drewry said <a href="https://www.drewry.co.uk/container-insight-weekly/weekly-feature-articles/bath-taps-wide-open-for-new-containerships">in its container insight</a> that 6,000 TEUs of capacity was scrapped in 2025, while Alphaliner puts the number slightly higher at 8,172 TEUs, calling it the lowest number in 20 years, according to their data. Shipping association Bimco estimated late last year that the share of ships 20 years old or older in the global fleet had increased from 16% at the beginning of 2020 to about 24%, putting the recycling overhang at 500 ships with a combined capacity of 1.8 million TEUs. <h3>Challenge to profitability </h3>In the financial results announced so far by ocean carriers, overcapacity was highlighted as a significant challenge to profitability. The most optimistic prediction is for global volumes to grow 4% this year, but with the steady influx of new ships and a return of some services to the Suez Canal, Maersk is expecting overcapacity in 2026 to be as high as 8%. The severe impact of overcapacity on the market and a reluctance of carriers to scrap older vessels was outlined in Maersk’s 2026 profitability forecast announced last week. Faced with a return to the Suez and new industry capacity coming online, Maersk flagged a potential $1.5 billion loss in its full-year earnings before interest and taxes for 2026; it would be the first operating loss the carrier has booked in 10 years. The top end of the profit guidance was set at $1 billion, $2.5 billion less than last year’s result. “The pace and extent of scrapping will influence whether the company reaches the upper or lower end of its financial guidance for the year,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said on last week’s earnings call, noting that an increase in scrapping would likely be triggered by a wider industry return to the Suez. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="994022ec-453b-46eb-b729-fcd589a9082d"></dynamic-object></div>Alphaliner took a similar view and is anticipating a rally of recycling in the second half of 2026, but only if the Suez route is once again widely used. Should Cape of Good Hope diversions continue through the year — along with the expected healthy cargo volumes, a moderate amount of newbuilding deliveries and a persistently tight supply of chartered tonnage — trading conditions could be good enough for shipowners to mostly stay clear of the recycling scene. “The rebound in scrapping would then be deferred to 2027 and 2028 when the colossal amount of newbuilding deliveries expected to hit the water during these two years will force a streamlining of the fleet,” Alphaliner noted. <h3>Over-ordering ‘a hard-wired habit’ </h3>Drewry’s five-year forecast includes a material increase in scrapping and is based on market conditions and nearly 1.5 million TEUs of the global fleet being at least 25 years old. Still, the consultancy warned that excess capacity would remain. “Over-ordering and limited demolitions have become consistent features of the industry over the past 15 or so years,” Drewry wrote in its container insight. “Therefore, one might question if this is a hard-wired habit that carriers will not be able to shake. Consolidation and bigger alliances were supposed to bring about more control, but there is little evidence of it to date.” Ocean carriers are already aggressively managing capacity through blank sailings and slow steaming, but Drewry said if scrapping levels did not increase soon, carriers would have to consider a further reduction in speed. “Spending billions on new hardware, only to then operate them significantly below design speed seems an inefficient waste,” Drewry said. “It would be better to tackle the problem at source and start removing vintage ships at scale.” Container shipping on the major east-west trades is now firmly in a buyers’ market, but Drewry warned shippers not to get too comfortable with that position. “While carrier behavior is notoriously difficult to predict, we have to assume that lines will not sit back idly and allow the market to drift against them without a fight,” the consultant noted. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The urgent need to increase the virtually non-existent scrapping of old container ships as new vessels flood online is a key challenge for the industry as it navigates an increasingly oversupplied market, according to carriers and analysts. Pre-tax quarterly losses have already appeared on the balance sheets of Maersk , its first in two years; and Ocean Network Express , its first quarterly loss since the second quarter of 2018; with Hapag-Lloyd and HMM both reporting steep declines in fourth-quarter profitability. Downward pressure on rates is set to continue with just over 1 million TEUs of capacity via ships above 10,000 TEUs scheduled to be delivered this year. That will be followed by 2.3 million TEUs of capacity due for delivery in 2027 and 3.4 million TEUs in 2028, according to Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. There is no sign of carriers pausing ship orders, either. A record 4.8 million TEUs of new ship capacity was ordered in 2025, and that momentum has carried into 2026 with another 290,000 TEUs ordered in January, according to maritime consultancy Drewry. Even as the capacity overhang is pushed further out, scrapping remains at negligible levels. Drewry said in its container insight that 6,000 TEUs of capacity was scrapped in 2025, while Alphaliner puts the number slightly higher at 8,172 TEUs, calling it the lowest number in 20 years, according to their data. Shipping association Bimco estimated late last year that the share of ships 20 years old or older in the global fleet had increased from 16% at the beginning of 2020 to about 24%, putting the recycling overhang at 500 ships with a combined capacity of 1.8 million TEUs. Challenge to profitability In the financial results announced so far by ocean carriers, overcapacity was highlighted as a significant challenge to profitability. The most optimistic prediction is for global volumes to grow 4% this year, but with the steady influx of new ships and a return of some services to the Suez Canal, Maersk is expecting overcapacity in 2026 to be as high as 8%. The severe impact of overcapacity on the market and a reluctance of carriers to scrap older vessels was outlined in Maersk’s 2026 profitability forecast announced last week. Faced with a return to the Suez and new industry capacity coming online, Maersk flagged a potential $1.5 billion loss in its full-year earnings before interest and taxes for 2026; it would be the first operating loss the carrier has booked in 10 years. The top end of the profit guidance was set at $1 billion, $2.5 billion less than last year’s result. “The pace and extent of scrapping will influence whether the company reaches the upper or lower end of its financial guidance for the year,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said on last week’s earnings call, noting that an increase in scrapping would likely be triggered by a wider industry return to the Suez. Alphaliner took a similar view and is anticipating a rally of recycling in the second half of 2026, but only if the Suez route is once again widely used. Should Cape of Good Hope diversions continue through the year — along with the expected healthy cargo volumes, a moderate amount of newbuilding deliveries and a persistently tight supply of chartered tonnage — trading conditions could be good enough for shipowners to mostly stay clear of the recycling scene. “The rebound in scrapping would then be deferred to 2027 and 2028 when the colossal amount of newbuilding deliveries expected to hit the water during these two years will force a streamlining of the fleet,” Alphaliner noted. Over-ordering ‘a hard-wired habit’ Drewry’s five-year forecast includes a material increase in scrapping and is based on market conditions and nearly 1.5 million TEUs of the global fleet being at least 25 years old. Still, the consultancy warned that excess capacity would remain. “Over-ordering and limited demolitions have become consistent features of the industry over the past 15 or so years,” Drewry wrote in its container insight. “Therefore, one might question if this is a hard-wired habit that carriers will not be able to shake. Consolidation and bigger alliances were supposed to bring about more control, but there is little evidence of it to date.” Ocean carriers are already aggressively managing capacity through blank sailings and slow steaming, but Drewry said if scrapping levels did not increase soon, carriers would have to consider a further reduction in speed. “Spending billions on new hardware, only to then operate them significantly below design speed seems an inefficient waste,” Drewry said. “It would be better to tackle the problem at source and start removing vintage ships at scale.” Container shipping on the major east-west trades is now firmly in a buyers’ market, but Drewry warned shippers not to get too comfortable with that position. “While carrier behavior is notoriously difficult to predict, we have to assume that lines will not sit back idly and allow the market to drift against them without a fight,” the consultant noted. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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