Trans-Pacific Shipping: The 2026 Outlook

Partner(s):

The seasonal rush or lack of before factories slow or cease production for two -week long China’s Lunar New Year celebrations will give the trans-Pacific trade a good barometer on just how depressed Asia import volumes will be for the rest of the years. Analysts forecast Asia import growth in 2026 to be in the very low single-digits to flat compared to last year The materialization of any seasonal rush and how carriers respond with capacity will provide a better sense of first-half demand, reflecting restocking for post-holiday sales and demand for spring wares. While bookings for Asia exports to North America have held up, as measured by maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet, the forward-looking demand indicators look lackluster. The National Retail Federation (NRF), in its monthly Global Port Tracker, forecasts the first month-over-month gain in import volumes (January from December) in six months, but noted that year-over-year import volumes would remain negative compared to quite strong import volumes early in 2025 as retailers frontloaded merchandise due to the expectation of higher tariffs. The webcast will provide an outlook on volume demand, ocean reliability and port performance, and annual trans-Pacific service contract negotiations.

Moderator:

Mark Szakonyi, Executive Editor, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global

Speakers:

Kelly Buckley, Deputy Director-Ocean Procurement, Drewry

Kevin Parkerson, Founder & CEO, KP Global Logistics Consulting

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