Name: The Economic And Trade Outlook: A Presentation by IHS Markit Chief Economist Dr. Nariman Behravesh
Uploaded: Mar 6, 2018, 12:22 PM EST
Description: IHS Markit Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh shares his outlook for global economic and trade growth with attendees at the 18th Annual TPM Conference at a time of growing uncertainty surrounding fiscal and trade policy.

IHS Markit Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh shares his outlook for global economic and trade growth with attendees at the 18th Annual TPM Conference at a time of growing uncertainty surrounding fiscal and trade policy.

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The long-term effects of US tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption have disrupted established air cargo flows and is clouding the industry outlook for the year.</p></div>

The long-term effects of US tariffs and the removal of the de minimis exemption have disrupted established air cargo flows and is clouding the industry outlook for the year.

Feature image

Trans-Pacific air cargo market flying into turbulent second half

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>From his hometown hub of Memphis, Fred Smith built FedEx from a $4 million inheritance to an $88 billion behemoth.  </p></div>

From his hometown hub of Memphis, Fred Smith built FedEx from a $4 million inheritance to an $88 billion behemoth.

Fred Smith, FedEx founder and visionary, dead at 80

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The loss of An-124 heavy-lift air capacity will force a modal shift to ocean or a reduction in cargo sizes to fit into smaller craft, experts say.</p></div>

The loss of An-124 heavy-lift air capacity will force a modal shift to ocean or a reduction in cargo sizes to fit into smaller craft, experts say.

Market seeks to navigate medium-term cuts to heavy-lift air cargo capacity

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>But a rise in demand for general cargo will not be enough to offset the sharp decline in e-commerce shipments that followed the US clampdown in May on low-value imports from China. </p></div>

But a rise in demand for general cargo will not be enough to offset the sharp decline in e-commerce shipments that followed the US clampdown in May on low-value imports from China.

Signs of air cargo recovery on the trans-Pacific as freighter aircraft return

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The acquisition of Cole Group brings Mullen trade consulting and additional non-asset logistics leverage in the US and Canada.</p></div>

The acquisition of Cole Group brings Mullen trade consulting and additional non-asset logistics leverage in the US and Canada.

Acquisition expands Canada’s Mullen Group customs brokerage, forwarding

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>With two attacks on commercial vessels in recent days, including one that killed three mariners, any thought that the risk in the Red Sea was easing to the point the Suez route might be restored in the near future has vanished.</p></div>

With two attacks on commercial vessels in recent days, including one that killed three mariners, any thought that the risk in the Red Sea was easing to the point the Suez route might be restored in the near future has vanished.

New Houthi attacks likely kill hopes of shipping returning to Red Sea this year

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Mediterranean Shipping Co. is furthering its lead in vessel tonnage so far this year as it absorbs more than double the amount of new capacity added by No. 2 carrier Maersk.  </p></div>

Mediterranean Shipping Co. is furthering its lead in vessel tonnage so far this year as it absorbs more than double the amount of new capacity added by No. 2 carrier Maersk.

MSC outstripping rivals on new capacity for 2025: Alphaliner

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>But the mini rush will be short-lived, with imports falling month to month between August and November, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker.</p></div>

But the mini rush will be short-lived, with imports falling month to month between August and November, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said in their latest Global Port Tracker.

US retailers upgrade import forecast after tariff deadline extended to Aug. 1

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The moves by CMA CGM were made to improve westbound transit times that remain a challenge due to ongoing vessel diversions around southern Africa. </p></div>

The moves by CMA CGM were made to improve westbound transit times that remain a challenge due to ongoing vessel diversions around southern Africa.

India-US ‘Indamex’ string drops Charleston, adds more ships to bolster reliability

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>In the latest course correction in the US’ busiest trade lane, carriers are set to deploy less tonnage in August as spot rates fall and retail import forecasts weaken. </p></div>

In the latest course correction in the US’ busiest trade lane, carriers are set to deploy less tonnage in August as spot rates fall and retail import forecasts weaken.

Container lines cutting trans-Pacific capacity overhang

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The recent death of FedEx founder Fred Smith presents an opportunity to compare his contributions to global supply chains with another visionary, Malcom McLean, the father of containerization. </p></div>

The recent death of FedEx founder Fred Smith presents an opportunity to compare his contributions to global supply chains with another visionary, Malcom McLean, the father of containerization.

Two legends took divergent paths to supply chain success

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Rhenus Logistics will manage the end-to-end supply chain via a 4PL control tower tailored to the circular textile logistics business.</p></div>

Rhenus Logistics will manage the end-to-end supply chain via a 4PL control tower tailored to the circular textile logistics business.

Fast fashion retailer forms recycling logistics venture to tackle textile waste

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>A plan to tax vehicle carriers $14 per net ton for each US port call will raise consumer costs and reduce the number of ports served, shipping executives warned Monday. </p></div>

A plan to tax vehicle carriers $14 per net ton for each US port call will raise consumer costs and reduce the number of ports served, shipping executives warned Monday.

USTR plan to tax ro/ro ships exceeds statutory authority: stakeholders

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The federal watchdog agency said the US Maritime Administration has financial levers to help the domestic shipbuilding industry but doesn’t know their effectiveness.</p></div>

The federal watchdog agency said the US Maritime Administration has financial levers to help the domestic shipbuilding industry but doesn’t know their effectiveness.

US shipbuilding incentives need more oversight: GAO

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The routing impasse between the railroads threatens supply chain disruptions for ocean carrier CMA CGM, which has cargo booked on the service that is due to begin later this week.</p></div>

The routing impasse between the railroads threatens supply chain disruptions for ocean carrier CMA CGM, which has cargo booked on the service that is due to begin later this week.

BNSF-UP dispute threatens Oakland-SLC service, triggers STB petition

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Loup Logistics provides direct access to nearly 80,000 rail-owned containers across North America, significantly expanding UP’s transloading options.</p></div>

Loup Logistics provides direct access to nearly 80,000 rail-owned containers across North America, significantly expanding UP’s transloading options.

Union Pacific subsidiary jumps into transloading with ‘port-to-door' service

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>New bottlenecks in Louisiana and Mississippi are now affecting freight flows between Mexico and the Southeast US.</p></div>

New bottlenecks in Louisiana and Mississippi are now affecting freight flows between Mexico and the Southeast US.

CPKC disruptions in Gulf states now impacting carload, intermodal traffic

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Unifor, the union representing more than 2,100 truck drivers, couriers, and warehouse and clerical workers in seven Canadian provinces, will vote on the agreement on Friday and Saturday.</p></div>

Unifor, the union representing more than 2,100 truck drivers, couriers, and warehouse and clerical workers in seven Canadian provinces, will vote on the agreement on Friday and Saturday.

DHL, union workers reach tentative deal to end Canadian work stoppage

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The railroad said the disruptions were the result of the switchover to a new operating system in early May, with the technology integration intended to unify old KCS systems into the CP network.</p></div>

The railroad said the disruptions were the result of the switchover to a new operating system in early May, with the technology integration intended to unify old KCS systems into the CP network.

CPKC acknowledges service woes to US regulators, vows remediation

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor, Journal of Commerce by S&amp;P Global, on how prices are dropping in the eastbound trans-Pacific as the largest US trade lane enters the busiest time of the year. </p></div>

Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global, on how prices are dropping in the eastbound trans-Pacific as the largest US trade lane enters the busiest time of the year.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>Bill Mongelluzzo, Senior Editor, Journal of Commerce by S&amp;P Global, on how prices are dropping in the eastbound trans-Pacific as the largest US trade lane enters the busiest time of the year. </p><p></p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="brightcove" resource-id="6375219343112"></dynamic-object></div></div>

Peak season pricing declines in the Asia-US trade

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Daniell Powell, CEO of Optimal Dynamics, joins TPM Today to discuss how shippers and truckload carriers are automating fleet planning and using technology to forecast for the unknown.</p></div>

Daniell Powell, CEO of Optimal Dynamics, joins TPM Today to discuss how shippers and truckload carriers are automating fleet planning and using technology to forecast for the unknown.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>Eric Johnson, Senior Editor, Technology, Journal of Commerce by S&amp;P Global sat down with  Daniell Powell, CEO of Optimal Dynamics, joins TPM Today to discuss how shippers and truckload carriers are automating fleet planning and using technology to forecast for the unknown</p><p>.• Discover how automation is reshaping logistics teams and what it means for your role.</p><p>• Uncover the surprising ways truck dispatching is being reimagined in 2025.</p><p>• Find out how next gen tech is unlocking powerful gains in network optimization.</p><p><i>This episode was streamed live on June 26, 2025 on </i><a href="https://letstalksupplychain.com/tpm-today/"><i>TPM Today</i></a></p><p></p><div class="wrapper-full"><dynamic-object type="youtube" resource-id="2N6Wlb_KHKs"></dynamic-object></div></div>

Eric Johnson, Senior Editor, Technology, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global sat down with Daniell Powell, CEO of Optimal Dynamics, joins TPM Today to discuss how shippers and truckload carriers are automating fleet planning and using technology to forecast for the unknown .• Discover how automation is reshaping logistics teams and what it means for your role. • Uncover the surprising ways truck dispatching is being reimagined in 2025. • Find out how next gen tech is unlocking powerful gains in network optimization. This episode was streamed live on June 26, 2025 on TPM Today

TPM TODAY | Is Your Fleet Ready for the Next Wave of Automation and Forecasting?

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>Food and agriculture product shippers have strict needs when it comes to ocean freight, but slow ships and clogged ports stymie efficiency.</p></div>

Food and agriculture product shippers have strict needs when it comes to ocean freight, but slow ships and clogged ports stymie efficiency.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>Michael Angell, Senior Editor, Journal of Commerce by S&amp;P Global, discusses AG shipping.  Food and agriculture product shippers have strict needs when it comes to ocean freight, but slow ships and clogged ports stymie efficiency.</p><p></p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="brightcove" resource-id="6375099540112"></dynamic-object></div></div>

Michael Angell, Senior Editor, Journal of Commerce by S&P Global, discusses AG shipping. Food and agriculture product shippers have strict needs when it comes to ocean freight, but slow ships and clogged ports stymie efficiency.

US ag exporters face ongoing risks in reaching overseas markets

SUMMER SALE EXTENDED: Use code SKSGW995 to save $500 on an annual Gold subscription and 20% on a TPM26 registration!

Subscribe Now - FT/Anonymous to Gold - Offer Box

SUBSCRIBE AND SAVE

UPGRADE TO GOLD AND SAVE: Use code GTW695 at checkout and save $800 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Upgrade Subscription - Gold Trials

Upgrade Subscription

SUMMER SALE EXTENDED: Use code SKSW25 to save 25% on first year of a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription!


Subscribe Now - FT/Anonymous to S/SP - Offer Box

GET INTO A GROUP SUBSCRIPTION: Arm your team with unlimited Journal of Commerce content

Group Subscriptions - Offer Box

Group Subscriptions

SUMMER SALE EXTENDED: Use code SKSW595 at checkout to save $900 on first year of a Gold subscription and 20% on TPM26! 

Upgrade Subscription - S/SP to Gold - Offer Box

START A FREE TRIAL: Access Journal of Commerce content for 30 days

Free Trial - Offer Box

Free Trial

Video

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>IHS Markit Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh shares his outlook for global economic and trade growth with attendees at the 18th Annual TPM Conference at a time of growing uncertainty surrounding fiscal and trade policy.</p></div>

<div class="phx-topic"><p>IHS Markit Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh shares his outlook for global economic and trade growth with attendees at the <a href="https://www.joc.com/special-topics/tpm-2018">18th Annual TPM Conference</a> at a time of growing uncertainty surrounding fiscal and trade policy.</p><p></p><div class="wrapper-full"><dynamic-object type="brightcove" resource-id="5746017360001"></dynamic-object></div></div>

Related Videos

Recent News and Analysis

Maritime News

Surface News

Air Cargo News

Supply Chain News