Last year on these same pages, many predicted that 2025 would be a year full of volatility and uncertainty. Those forecasts proved to be correct. Rapidly shifting trade policy, geopolitics, macro risks, persistent port congestion, new carrier alliances and changing environmental agendas all conspired to make demand and fleet planning for vessels and equipment an arduous task. Looking to the horizon, 2026 doesn’t look much improved and most are even more cautious about the year ahead. While there are tailwinds, stiff headwinds persist, and once again uncertainty and volatility will be our constant companions. Tepid trade growth and moderating demand driven by an uncertain trade policy and global risk is front and center for 2026. Add to this an orderbook for new vessels standing at 30% of the existing fleet, with newbuild deliveries outpacing demand growth out to 2029. This dynamic could be further exacerbated by easing tensions in the Red Sea which would release more vessel and equipment capacity with shorter sailing times. The shipping container manufacturers, supported by lessors and shipping lines, also play a role here. The industry produced nearly 6 million TEUs of new dry containers in 2025, following a record year of over 7 million TEUs in 2024 — frankly, more than is required. With newbuild prices stubbornly low, carriers and lessors continue to invest, despite excess inventories. The refrigerated cargo market remains resilient with solid growth and without the oversupply of equipment seen in the dry sector. People have to eat, and while tariffs may come and go, you can’t move the equator. So, the 2026 outlook remains cautious with demand likely to grow, but modestly. The risk of structural oversupply is real, with too many ships and too many dry containers in the system. Geopolitical risks and ever-changing trade policy will remain.
Robert Sappio, CEO, SeaCube Container Leasing