Ocean container shipping has been hit by Black Swan events and geopolitical forces with increasing regularity in recent years — what sets US tariffs in 2025 apart?
Simply, the level of unpredictability and short-term volatility has changed the game.
For example, the COVID-19 pandemic disruption caused average ocean container spot rates to spiral more than 500%, but it was a slower burn and took two years of gradual increases for the peak to be reached in March 2022.
In contrast, when the US and China announced a temporary lowering of tariffs in May, it took just three weeks for spot rates to spike 117% due to the unexpected surge in demand. Rates then plummeted as demand eased in the subsequent months, down 73% between June and October.
Chaos is also seen in offered capacity. It reduced 26% on the trans-Pacific between April and May as demand fell off a cliff in the wake of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement — then increased 49% by July as carriers responded to the lower tariff cargo rush.
The tap for US imports is being turned off and on with little or no warning. This is a nightmare situation for both shippers and carriers who both value stability and visibility.
No trade is safe from the US tariff chaos. At the same time as the drama was unfolding into the US West Coast, spot rates increased 318% from China to East Coast South America between May and July.
Global trade craves stability. Even the 12-month tariff truce announced in October 2025 is not enough for shippers to make long term decisions, such as opening manufacturing facilities in another country or region.
Whether it is more tariff chaos or another as-yet-unknown Black Swan event, volatility is inevitable in 2026 and beyond. We must find a better way to buy and sell freight.