The latest expansion of US tariffs is not occurring in isolation but marks another step away from the long era of trade liberalization and multilateralism during which global supply chains were optimized for efficiency and predictability. Trade policy is increasingly shaped by industrial strategy, security considerations and geopolitics. Europe experiences these shifts with intensity. As one of the world’s most open and interconnected economies, with the EU involved in around 60% of global trade flows, predictable access to markets, inputs and technologies is fundamental to its competitiveness. European supply chains have been hit by successive shocks, from financial instability and COVID-19 to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and volatile energy prices. Combined with structural pressures such as demographic ageing, labor shortages, rising compliance obligations and the capital needs of the green and digital transitions, the operating environment has become far more uncertain than in previous decades.
In response, European industry is diversifying quickly. Production is shifting closer to end-markets, with increased investment in Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey, North Africa, and selectively Southeast Asia. Policymakers are accelerating bilateral trade agreements to secure diversified market access. For freight forwarders, these dynamics significantly expand our role. Tariffs add complexity due to altering routing choices, capacity planning, and commercial structures across transatlantic and Asia–Europe corridors. Companies face shifting preferential regimes, redefined rules of origin and fluctuating transport flows, all of which raise costs and lead to supply-chain decisions based on political shocks rather than economic logic. The question is whether in the coming years the US leadership is prepared to reconsider a strategy that has not delivered the intended domestic gains yet has imposed clear economic costs on American consumers, exporters and manufacturing supply chains. If the shared objective is long-term economic strength across the Atlantic, then it is time to steer away from tariff escalation and re-engage in a more constructive, mutually beneficial trade agenda.