The US shipping industry isn't in a simple slowdown; it's navigating a policy-driven whiplash effect.
The data from 2025 proves this. The year began with an artificial boom, with imports growing 15.6% year on year from January to April as shippers frontloaded cargo to beat impending tariff deadlines. This was immediately followed by an inevitable bust, with volumes contracting 7.2% in May and 8.2% in June as those tariffs took effect.
This extreme volatility, driven by policy rather than economics, makes traditional cost-cutting measures, such as opting to source from lower tariff countries, unreliable solutions. Supply chains will need extreme operational flexibility, which is difficult to achieve given the complexity of multimodal global supply chains.
To build supply chains that can keep up with today’s volatility, shippers, carriers and logistics providers must start with better data. That means re-instrumenting their networks with API-based integrations, real-time telematics and eBOL adoption to create a unified, high-quality data layer. This foundational data layer is the prerequisite for tools such as predictive ETAs, smart alerts and exception automation needed to manage volatility with speed, precision and resilience.
Volatility doesn’t just affect ports. It travels inland and ultimately reshapes consumer expectations, making reliability the strongest competitive signal. With 45% of consumers unlikely to shop again with a retailer after just one missed delivery, protecting on-time, in-full is non-negotiable.
This stress test will force the industry to optimize structurally. The companies that use this period to build this agile, technological operating model will be the ones who emerge stronger and more competitive.