Our greatest capacity crises — COVID aside — have each been triggered by a regulatory jolt. President George W. Bush’s 2003 tax credit was followed by new hours-of-service rules in 2004, then the electronic logging device mandate in 2017–2018. We may be approaching another one.
In 2025, compliance professionals focused on fraud, security and the last “wild west” of global supply chains: ground transport operations. Airlines, air-cargo operators, global forwarders, carriers and 3PLs all faced scrutiny for gaps in freight oversight. For life science shippers, US GDP certification rolled out in the spring, followed by TAPA’s Tier 1 TSR for high-value goods.
Transport providers routinely broker freight to outside parties, yet little attention had been paid to which party actually moved the freight or whether it was qualified and controlled. In high-value cargo, “asset-based” has never guaranteed “appropriate, safe or secure.” These new standards are shrinking the pool of compliant entities.
Regulatory shifts in the driver workforce could amplify impact. Efforts to remove non-domiciled commercial drivers’ license holders could cut 6% of drivers, and English language proficiency tests at roadside inspections — backed by USDOT enforcement including withheld funds — could further reduce capacity.
All this is unfolding as the trucking market contracts after three and a half years of freight recession — the longest since deregulation. The combination of a prolonged downturn and sudden enforcement could create a system shock, pushing out weaker or noncompliant capacity just as equilibrium nears, potentially driving higher rates and renewed demand.
Add in a global supply chain adjusting to a new tariff-driven world order, and the outlook is clear: 2025 may have brought volatility and correction, but 2026 and beyond could test the industry’s resilience yet again.