The phrase “ocean shipping predictability” often feels like a contradiction.
We rely on sailing schedules to plan our supply chains, but on-time performance is often unreliable. In some shipping lanes, carriers struggle to deliver more than 40% of shipments on time.
What are we really paying for? How can one effectively plan a supply chain when ocean carriers have little or no incentive to stick to their schedules?
From a shipper’s perspective, we put a lot of effort into providing accurate forecasts to help carriers plan their operations. Every month, we outline the number of containers we expect to book each week during the following five weeks by carrier and shipping lane.
By sharing this information, we aim to help carriers plan their vessels more efficiently, improve reliability, ensure equipment availability and optimize stowage. While this process is challenging, we believe it’s essential for building successful partnerships.
The process itself is highly detailed and labor-intensive. First, orders must be translated into the number of packages, which are then calculated into cubic meters, converted into pallets and planned for loading into containers (either palletized or floor-loaded). Delivery dates are factored in, production schedules are adjusted and unexpected factory delays are managed. Once that’s done, we coordinate consolidation shipments, where suppliers deliver their goods to designated consolidation centers on specific days. This detailed planning is repeated for every shipping lane.
After all this preparation, issues such as blank sailings, rolled cargo, fluctuating vessel capacity, phase-ins and phase-outs, congestion, and other unforeseen carrier problems often disrupt operations and undermine the hard work we do to plan effectively.
That’s why we prioritize working with carriers that are genuinely committed to improving their on-time performance. While some issues, such as bad weather or safety concerns, are unavoidable, we value carriers who actively work to resolve fixable problems. These are the partners we’ll continue to work with as we move forward.