What can container carriers expect to come out of Washington this year that will affect the container shipping industry? The short and realistic answer is little or nothing.
A number of converging factors all point to this result. Broadly speaking, traditionally there is a slowdown in legislation and other government initiatives in an election year. Not only are legislators and other government officials generally distracted by the election year politics, but this heightened political sensitivity also frequently results in inaction. In Washington, inaction is often believed — sometimes mistakenly — to be the safest course.
Beyond the usual election-year gridlock, the paralysis will be exacerbated by Washington’s escalating and well-publicized partisan atmosphere. Because of the growing political divide between the two parties, some larger issues that also could impact container carriers have scant chance of becoming law. Federal legislation regulating or controlling greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide emissions have no chance of advancing. Other environmental initiatives, such as those affecting ballast water, likely face a similar fate. The same is true of major infrastructure projects (port and intermodal connections). And, further measures relating to container security aren’t even contemplated.
Strikingly, transportation issues, which historically have been treated in Washington as bipartisan, have become more partisan. The Democrats vs. Republicans war has infected the transportation arena, causing a recent, and unpopular, partial shutdown of the Federal Aviation Administration. It also has stymied a meaningful highway bill. Anything that costs money has a cloudy future.
Against this background, 2012 will not see any meaningful legislative actions that impact container carriers, either indirectly or directly.