Next year will be a loud, eventful year for the North American freight rail industry, but I predict that the following year, 2027, will be the defining one. That is because the proposed Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger, which could transform the industry, won't be decided until then. Yes, the merger partners are rushing to get their application into the Surface Transportation Board as early as the time of writing (November 2025), and theoretically, while the 390-day review deadline could be expedited (as the dealmakers request), given the magnitude of this deal and its follow-on implications, I expect the decision, and therefore its ramifications, to be a 2027 event. As a good friend who should know says, “Bet the over!”
There will be lots of noise, press releases, speeches, etc. in the interim, of course — this stuff gets personal. Is this deal going to pass? What will the deal be that is approved, if so? What are the remedies involved? What will the other carriers then do, if anything? Will shippers take a stand? Will the stakeholders choose between oppose, support and/or extort? Stay tuned…
And in the meantime, the freight rail group, some 50% trade-weighted, will still be subject to the political whims of the White House and industrial inactivity created by lack of any supply chain/tariff clarity, not to mention the continuing freight recession (trucking oversupply). But buckle up, it's going to be a loud, crazy year! Then the real work will begin…