Since the peak of the COVID-19 supply chain crisis, over-the-road trucking prices in the US have declined steadily, even as labor and input costs rise. According to Oliver Wyman’s 2025 Shipper Survey, an unusual amount of rail intermodal lanes is priced above truck rates currently, inhibiting conversions from truck to rail. This suggests that many owner-operators/small fleets are maintaining pricing power for longer than usual. A third of active tractors are operated by fleets of less than ten trucks, while large fleet owners control only 8% of the market.
The pandemic led to a surge of new entrants at the small end of the market. High rates and government assistance created a cash influx that enabled owner-operators to purchase new equipment. Although small trucking firms are typically short-lived, there is value even at lower rates in keeping paid-off trucks operational, preserving excess market supply: Owner-operators who were able to eliminate equipment debt incur incremental costs around $0.80 per mile, making them competitive against current market rates of approximately $1.72.
The rise of digital freight brokers is enhancing access to available freight, further empowering owner-operators in a competitive market. We think it is unlikely that these trucks owned by smaller operators will exit the market soon, despite enforcement of current truck driving regulations and more stringent regulations coming into play. Railroads will need to consider whether greater market flexibility will be required to keep freight on rail through this extended period of lower trucking rates.