<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The shipping industry is buzzing over this week's extraordinary announcement by the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement, whose members plan to ask customers to renegotiate recently signed service </div>

The shipping industry is buzzing over this week's extraordinary announcement by the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement, whose members plan to ask customers to renegotiate recently signed service

<div>The shipping industry is buzzing over this week's extraordinary announcement by the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement, whose members plan to ask customers to renegotiate recently signed service contracts to provide $500-per-FEU increases in eastbound rates from Asia to the United States. That would be an increase of about 50 percent or more in contract rates, assuming they're close to Hong Kong-to-Los Angeles spot rates, which are about $900 per FEU, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants' latest weekly survey. No one disputes that carriers are in desperate straits and that some may need the higher rates to survive. Whether that translates into...

The shipping industry is buzzing over this week's extraordinary announcement by the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement, whose members plan to ask customers to renegotiate recently signed service contracts to provide $500-per-FEU increases in eastbound rates from Asia to the United States. That would be an increase of about 50 percent or more in contract rates, assuming they're close to Hong Kong-to-Los Angeles spot rates, which are about $900 per FEU, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants' latest weekly survey. No one disputes that carriers are in desperate straits and that some may need the higher rates to survive. Whether that translates into success in renegotiating rates will become apparent during the weeks ahead. There already are doubters. Here's an opinion we've received from one JoC reader, who writes: The primary reasons the TSA August increases will not hold are; 1. No one carrier has gone under yet this year. The expectations were that at least one and as many as three Pacific players would either close up shop or merge into another carrier. 2. Customers found large numbers of carriers, during Pacific contract season, that were willing to drop their shorts on the rates. Many more were aggressive/proactive in doing so than in past years. 3. Carriers expect to have full ships, to a larger degree than normal, as they have downsized. Even with the falling levels of moving freight. They are wishing for demand and guessing on supply, not a good posture reviewing the history of accuracy (or lack thereof) that the industry has with forecasting supply-demand. 4. Customers will not be accepting that all that much has changed over the past 30-45 days (most Pac E/B service contracts were re-signed around late May to late June). Now a 50% increase!! What catastrophe occurred? 5. To make matters worse many carriers fixed bunker surcharges for the duration of the service contracts. How where does that make any sense? I could come up with more reasons, but, the underlying notion is that carriers created the atmosphere that they are totally and completely desperate for cargo in May and June and then decide to raise rates by 50% in August - what's wrong with this picture? Will Ford raise the price of cars by 25% next month? My bet is that the rate averages will be the same or lower in October/November than they are now, unless a major carrier falls off the earth. Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share your thoughts here.

Maritime

Will TSA succeed?

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them, meaning we are literally building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn, writes Robbert van Trooijen.</div>

The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them, meaning we are literally building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn, writes Robbert van Trooijen.

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<div class="phx-topic">In his recent work, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, Edward Fishman argues that while great powers once rose by controlling geographic straits like the Bosphorus, modern power relies on different, often digital, levers. Today we are reminded that even in the Digital Age, physical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz can still disrupt supply chains to such an extent that they threaten global recession. But as we look toward a post-2026 horizon — assuming current geopolitical fires are eventually extinguished — a more systemic bottleneck looms: the stagnation of global port infrastructure. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6209409_0.1.jpg"></img></div>The math of global trade is currently heading toward a collision course. Available ocean terminal capacity at major gateways and hubs is reaching a saturation point. While the industry has leaned heavily on efficiency gains and automation to squeeze more "moves per hour" out of existing footprints, there is a lack of new physical capacity being added to the global map. We see a flurry of M&amp;A activity — such as the planned sale of assets like Hutchison Port Holdings — but shifting ownership of an existing facility in itself does nothing to accommodate the actual growth of global trade. The strongest evidence of this disconnect lies in the shipyards. The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them. We are, quite literally, building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn. <h3>Protecting margins — at the expense of cargo flow </h3>The hesitation to build is certainly not due to a lack of profitability. The investment case for terminal infrastructure is, in fact, staggering. APM Terminals, a subsidiary of Danish conglomerate A.P. Moller Maersk, reported a return on invested capital (ROIC) of no less than 16.1% in the 2025 fourth quarter, a figure that outperforms almost every other sub-sector in the maritime industry. So, why the inertia? There is no simple answer, but part of the answer lies in a classic "incumbent’s dilemma." While new capacity would benefit the global economy by increasing competitiveness, it would also — at least temporarily — dilute the high returns currently enjoyed by existing operators. In some markets, bottlenecks are not just a nuisance; they are lucrative. This creates a perverse incentive for incumbents to lobby against greenfield projects, effectively protecting their margins at the expense of trade fluidity. The investment gap is most visible in the Southern Hemisphere. As industry analyst Lars Jensen highlighted at TPM26 in Long Beach in early March, demographic shifts identify Latin America and Africa as the next great trade frontiers. Yet, these are the very regions where the pushback against "carrier-owned" terminals is loudest. Local players often lobby against the participation of ocean carriers, arguing that vertical integration is anti-competitive. This is an understandable yet somewhat protectionist stance. It is the ocean carriers who possess the most direct incentive to drive capacity growth — they are the ones who need the berths to keep their growing fleet of vessels moving. The "dominance" argument falls flat when compared to the alternative: a stagnant, expensive status quo maintained by local (family-owned) oligopolies. <h3>The need to act now </h3>Any legitimate anti-competitive concerns can be easily mitigated through clear, enforceable neutrality clauses within concession agreements. These clauses ensure that while a carrier may own the terminal, it remains an open-access utility for the broader market. The construction of a greenfield site takes three to five years. If we do not break ground today, the “landside chokepoint” of 2028 and beyond could very well make today’s Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions look like a minor logistical hiccup. To secure the future of global trade, we must look past the protectionist rhetoric of local incumbents and embrace the capital and operational drive of carrier-terminal combinations. The returns are there and the demand is there. But the berths are not. It is time for a virtuous cycle to take over the industry. Robbert van Trooijen, founder and president of Inception Partners and a McKinsey consultant, had a 33-year tenure with The Nedlloyd Group, P&amp;O Nedlloyd and the Maersk Group. Contact him at r<a href="mailto:robbert@inceptionpartners.org">obbert@inceptionpartners.org</a>. </div>

In his recent work, Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare, Edward Fishman argues that while great powers once rose by controlling geographic straits like the Bosphorus, modern power relies on different, often digital, levers. Today we are reminded that even in the Digital Age, physical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz can still disrupt supply chains to such an extent that they threaten global recession. But as we look toward a post-2026 horizon — assuming current geopolitical fires are eventually extinguished — a more systemic bottleneck looms: the stagnation of global port infrastructure. The math of global trade is currently heading toward a collision course. Available ocean terminal capacity at major gateways and hubs is reaching a saturation point. While the industry has leaned heavily on efficiency gains and automation to squeeze more "moves per hour" out of existing footprints, there is a lack of new physical capacity being added to the global map. We see a flurry of M&A activity — such as the planned sale of assets like Hutchison Port Holdings — but shifting ownership of an existing facility in itself does nothing to accommodate the actual growth of global trade. The strongest evidence of this disconnect lies in the shipyards. The current pipeline of newbuilding programs for ultra-large container vessels vastly outstrips the construction of new berths intended to receive them. We are, quite literally, building a fleet for which there may soon be no room at the inn. Protecting margins — at the expense of cargo flow The hesitation to build is certainly not due to a lack of profitability. The investment case for terminal infrastructure is, in fact, staggering. APM Terminals, a subsidiary of Danish conglomerate A.P. Moller Maersk, reported a return on invested capital (ROIC) of no less than 16.1% in the 2025 fourth quarter, a figure that outperforms almost every other sub-sector in the maritime industry. So, why the inertia? There is no simple answer, but part of the answer lies in a classic "incumbent’s dilemma." While new capacity would benefit the global economy by increasing competitiveness, it would also — at least temporarily — dilute the high returns currently enjoyed by existing operators. In some markets, bottlenecks are not just a nuisance; they are lucrative. This creates a perverse incentive for incumbents to lobby against greenfield projects, effectively protecting their margins at the expense of trade fluidity. The investment gap is most visible in the Southern Hemisphere. As industry analyst Lars Jensen highlighted at TPM26 in Long Beach in early March, demographic shifts identify Latin America and Africa as the next great trade frontiers. Yet, these are the very regions where the pushback against "carrier-owned" terminals is loudest. Local players often lobby against the participation of ocean carriers, arguing that vertical integration is anti-competitive. This is an understandable yet somewhat protectionist stance. It is the ocean carriers who possess the most direct incentive to drive capacity growth — they are the ones who need the berths to keep their growing fleet of vessels moving. The "dominance" argument falls flat when compared to the alternative: a stagnant, expensive status quo maintained by local (family-owned) oligopolies. The need to act now Any legitimate anti-competitive concerns can be easily mitigated through clear, enforceable neutrality clauses within concession agreements. These clauses ensure that while a carrier may own the terminal, it remains an open-access utility for the broader market. The construction of a greenfield site takes three to five years. If we do not break ground today, the “landside chokepoint” of 2028 and beyond could very well make today’s Red Sea/Strait of Hormuz disruptions look like a minor logistical hiccup. To secure the future of global trade, we must look past the protectionist rhetoric of local incumbents and embrace the capital and operational drive of carrier-terminal combinations. The returns are there and the demand is there. But the berths are not. It is time for a virtuous cycle to take over the industry. Robbert van Trooijen, founder and president of Inception Partners and a McKinsey consultant, had a 33-year tenure with The Nedlloyd Group, P&O Nedlloyd and the Maersk Group. Contact him at r obbert@inceptionpartners.org .

Port News

Port infrastructure

Marine terminals

Supply chain

Landside infrastructure is container shipping’s next great chokepoint

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While there have been some schedule changes for multipurpose vessels, reliability is still sufficient only because the shock hasn't gotten through the system yet — and conditions will likely worsen from there, conference attendees were told.</div>

While there have been some schedule changes for multipurpose vessels, reliability is still sufficient only because the shock hasn't gotten through the system yet — and conditions will likely worsen from there, conference attendees were told.

<div class="phx-topic">New Orleans —The war-induced disruption to energy markets is a significant financial shock that the project cargo industry didn’t plan for — and the worst is likely yet to come, experts speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026 said this week. Christian Ohlrich, global director of logistics at energy storage manufacturer Fluence Energy, said his “major concern” is of “drastic” financial impacts for shippers with projects already underway. While there have been some schedule changes for multipurpose vessels, reliability is still there, but only because the shock “just hasn’t gotten through the system yet,” Ohlrich said. “I would expect the schedule to start seeing some effects in the fall and then get worse,” he said. To counter this, Fluence is trying to pre-order as many project supplies as financially possible. “We’re pre-buying, we’re storing, and we’re preparing,” said Ohlrich. Amy Groeschel, director and head of energy spending at S&amp;P Global Energy, had a stark warning for project cargo shippers: “It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.” <h3>AI driver highlighted </h3>Looking beyond the current conflict with Iran, Groeschel flagged the impact of AI as a huge project cargo driver, not only for renewable power, but also for batteries and storage. “Our newest forecast really presents a very positive spin for renewable power and where that's coming from,” she said. “Even in the face of this conflict, we might see this change even more next year, as countries go back to the thought of energy security and making different policy choices in order to create more stable power supplies.” Corrie Henry, regional director for logistics and trade compliance at engineering, procurement and construction company Worley, said he expected to see EPCs “hedge their bets” on LNG and oil, adding renewables when speed and politics demand it. “My bet is going to be on a multi-energy buildout,” Henry told Breakbulk26. While she agreed with a multi-fuel transition future, Groeschel warned that the outlook could be “messy” and in “fits and starts.” “There is a mismatch of project cycle and the need for energy,” she said. “Those quick to deploy technologies, like in renewable power in some places, are appropriate and are incentivized by the government. ”And so that’s where you’re going to see those big build outs,” which will drive project cargo demand, she added. Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

New Orleans —The war-induced disruption to energy markets is a significant financial shock that the project cargo industry didn’t plan for — and the worst is likely yet to come, experts speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s Breakbulk and Project Cargo Conference 2026 said this week. Christian Ohlrich, global director of logistics at energy storage manufacturer Fluence Energy, said his “major concern” is of “drastic” financial impacts for shippers with projects already underway. While there have been some schedule changes for multipurpose vessels, reliability is still there, but only because the shock “just hasn’t gotten through the system yet,” Ohlrich said. “I would expect the schedule to start seeing some effects in the fall and then get worse,” he said. To counter this, Fluence is trying to pre-order as many project supplies as financially possible. “We’re pre-buying, we’re storing, and we’re preparing,” said Ohlrich. Amy Groeschel, director and head of energy spending at S&P Global Energy, had a stark warning for project cargo shippers: “It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.” AI driver highlighted Looking beyond the current conflict with Iran, Groeschel flagged the impact of AI as a huge project cargo driver, not only for renewable power, but also for batteries and storage. “Our newest forecast really presents a very positive spin for renewable power and where that's coming from,” she said. “Even in the face of this conflict, we might see this change even more next year, as countries go back to the thought of energy security and making different policy choices in order to create more stable power supplies.” Corrie Henry, regional director for logistics and trade compliance at engineering, procurement and construction company Worley, said he expected to see EPCs “hedge their bets” on LNG and oil, adding renewables when speed and politics demand it. “My bet is going to be on a multi-energy buildout,” Henry told Breakbulk26. While she agreed with a multi-fuel transition future, Groeschel warned that the outlook could be “messy” and in “fits and starts.” “There is a mismatch of project cycle and the need for energy,” she said. “Those quick to deploy technologies, like in renewable power in some places, are appropriate and are incentivized by the government. ”And so that’s where you’re going to see those big build outs,” which will drive project cargo demand, she added. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .

Energy projects

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Breakbulk26: War-related financial, schedule shocks ahead for energy projects

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The conflict could also spur increased spending on ports and landside infrastructure in the Middle East as investors seek to develop alternative transport solutions to avoid areas that have been closed or heavily impacted by the hostilities, executives said Thursday on a pair of webinars.</div>

The conflict could also spur increased spending on ports and landside infrastructure in the Middle East as investors seek to develop alternative transport solutions to avoid areas that have been closed or heavily impacted by the hostilities, executives said Thursday on a pair of webinars.

<div class="phx-topic">Blank sailings, service cancellations and routing changes are among the likely impacts on container shipping in the coming months from the Middle East war, shipping executives and analysts said Thursday. Longer-term, potential oil shortages could significantly affect global manufacturing, curtailing container volumes, they said. The conflict could also spur increased spending on ports and landside infrastructure in the Middle East as investors seek to develop alternative transport solutions to avoid areas, including the Strait of Hormuz, that have been closed or heavily impacted by the hostilities. The potential consequences of the US and Israel war with Iran were outlined in separate webinars Thursday hosted by ocean carrier Hapag-Lloyd and maritime consultancy Drewry. To date, the Iran war has had a limited impact on global trade except for escalating oil prices, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said during the carrier-backed event. Jansen pointed out the carrier and shippers have come together to agree on alternative transport options, including road transport, for freight in the Gulf so that “92% of cargo that was stuck now has a clear delivery date.” A month ago, Habben Jansen said the war in the Middle East <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/war-adding-40-50-million-per-week-to-hapag-lloyds-costs-ceo-6193532">had raised Hapag-Lloyd’s operating costs by $40 million to $50 million per week</a>, a reality he said was “not something that you can sustain for very long.” The consequences of a protracted conflict are more severe with higher oil prices and oil shortages curtailing production of fertilizers, foodstuffs, plastics and manufactured goods such as shoes and electronics that use oil derivatives. Asia and the Indian sub-continent are especially susceptible to oil-related disruptions because of their heavy reliance on Middle East crude imports, shipments that have largely stopped following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Asia relies on the Middle East for about 60% of its total crude oil imports, while about 55% of India’s oil comes from the region. Björn Vang Jensen, a Dubai-based former executive vice president and global head of ocean at EasySpeed International Logistics, said the impact of the disruptions would be felt in the coming months. With the crop sowing season about to start across the Indian sub-continent, Asia fertilizer shortages will result in thinner crop yields and higher food prices, he told the Hapag webinar. Shortages are already being felt in Australia, where the federal government has recently secured an emergency supply of 250,000 metric tons of urea fertilizer from Indonesia. That came after Australia’s National Farmers Federation warned that fertilizer shortages and surging fuel costs would reduce the acreage planted, leading to higher food prices. <h3>Year will be a ‘mess’ </h3>Vang Jensen indicated oil shortages could hit manufacturing, especially in Asia, which would affect exports and container volumes. “There may be a peak season, but I doubt it. If there is, it’ll be muted,” he said. “There will be service cancellations, blank sailings, [and] routing changes if the conflict drags on ... the whole year is going to be a mess.” Simon Heaney, Drewry’s senior manager of container research, said the consultancy has now cut its growth forecast for global container port throughput to 1.8%, down from 2.2% in February. “Any further escalation [in the conflict] could force a bigger downgrade,” Heaney said on Drewry’s webinar. “Port throughput growth could sink to between 0.5% and 1.3%, which comes after two years of very strong growth of 6%.” With no sign the Middle East war will end quickly and ongoing uncertainty about the security situation, carriers are in no rush to return to the Red Sea/Suez Canal or the Arabian Sea, executives said. Lars Jensen, an industry analyst and CEO of Vespucci Maritime, told the Hapag-Lloyd webinar that Iran and its allies could easily threaten the Red Sea, especially since it has already closed Hormuz, and on Wednesday seized two container ships belonging to Mediterranean Shipping Co. Even if Iran was to reopen Hormuz, restoring access to the Persian Gulf and its ports, a quick return by ocean carriers was seen as unlikely. “Drewry’s view is that direct container ship sailings into Gulf ports will not happen until a substantive deal is reached and the risk of attack is very low,” Heaney told the Journal of Commerce. On the Drewry webinar, he said the longer-term consequences of the conflict would further entrench carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa. Heaney also thought there would be greater interest in developing ports outside the Strait of Hormuz and upgrading inland infrastructure among the Gulf Cooperation Council, an intergovernmental political and economic union developing the 600-mile Saudi Arabia land bridge railway. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

Blank sailings, service cancellations and routing changes are among the likely impacts on container shipping in the coming months from the Middle East war, shipping executives and analysts said Thursday. Longer-term, potential oil shortages could significantly affect global manufacturing, curtailing container volumes, they said. The conflict could also spur increased spending on ports and landside infrastructure in the Middle East as investors seek to develop alternative transport solutions to avoid areas, including the Strait of Hormuz, that have been closed or heavily impacted by the hostilities. The potential consequences of the US and Israel war with Iran were outlined in separate webinars Thursday hosted by ocean carrier Hapag-Lloyd and maritime consultancy Drewry. To date, the Iran war has had a limited impact on global trade except for escalating oil prices, Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said during the carrier-backed event. Jansen pointed out the carrier and shippers have come together to agree on alternative transport options, including road transport, for freight in the Gulf so that “92% of cargo that was stuck now has a clear delivery date.” A month ago, Habben Jansen said the war in the Middle East had raised Hapag-Lloyd’s operating costs by $40 million to $50 million per week , a reality he said was “not something that you can sustain for very long.” The consequences of a protracted conflict are more severe with higher oil prices and oil shortages curtailing production of fertilizers, foodstuffs, plastics and manufactured goods such as shoes and electronics that use oil derivatives. Asia and the Indian sub-continent are especially susceptible to oil-related disruptions because of their heavy reliance on Middle East crude imports, shipments that have largely stopped following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Asia relies on the Middle East for about 60% of its total crude oil imports, while about 55% of India’s oil comes from the region. Björn Vang Jensen, a Dubai-based former executive vice president and global head of ocean at EasySpeed International Logistics, said the impact of the disruptions would be felt in the coming months. With the crop sowing season about to start across the Indian sub-continent, Asia fertilizer shortages will result in thinner crop yields and higher food prices, he told the Hapag webinar. Shortages are already being felt in Australia, where the federal government has recently secured an emergency supply of 250,000 metric tons of urea fertilizer from Indonesia. That came after Australia’s National Farmers Federation warned that fertilizer shortages and surging fuel costs would reduce the acreage planted, leading to higher food prices. Year will be a ‘mess’ Vang Jensen indicated oil shortages could hit manufacturing, especially in Asia, which would affect exports and container volumes. “There may be a peak season, but I doubt it. If there is, it’ll be muted,” he said. “There will be service cancellations, blank sailings, [and] routing changes if the conflict drags on ... the whole year is going to be a mess.” Simon Heaney, Drewry’s senior manager of container research, said the consultancy has now cut its growth forecast for global container port throughput to 1.8%, down from 2.2% in February. “Any further escalation [in the conflict] could force a bigger downgrade,” Heaney said on Drewry’s webinar. “Port throughput growth could sink to between 0.5% and 1.3%, which comes after two years of very strong growth of 6%.” With no sign the Middle East war will end quickly and ongoing uncertainty about the security situation, carriers are in no rush to return to the Red Sea/Suez Canal or the Arabian Sea, executives said. Lars Jensen, an industry analyst and CEO of Vespucci Maritime, told the Hapag-Lloyd webinar that Iran and its allies could easily threaten the Red Sea, especially since it has already closed Hormuz, and on Wednesday seized two container ships belonging to Mediterranean Shipping Co. Even if Iran was to reopen Hormuz, restoring access to the Persian Gulf and its ports, a quick return by ocean carriers was seen as unlikely. “Drewry’s view is that direct container ship sailings into Gulf ports will not happen until a substantive deal is reached and the risk of attack is very low,” Heaney told the Journal of Commerce. On the Drewry webinar, he said the longer-term consequences of the conflict would further entrench carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa. Heaney also thought there would be greater interest in developing ports outside the Strait of Hormuz and upgrading inland infrastructure among the Gulf Cooperation Council, an intergovernmental political and economic union developing the 600-mile Saudi Arabia land bridge railway. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Container lines

Asia-Europe

International ports

Container Shipping News

Container shipping faces blank sailings, falling demand from prolonged Iran war

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The jump in domestic intermodal volumes shows how quickly freight can move to rail when truckload pricing increases, but whether that shift sustains depends on how railroads handle the surge in cargo.</div>

The jump in domestic intermodal volumes shows how quickly freight can move to rail when truckload pricing increases, but whether that shift sustains depends on how railroads handle the surge in cargo.

<div class="phx-topic">North American railroads hauled more than 785,000 domestic containers in March, the third-highest monthly total on record and the strongest March ever, new data shows, as shippers shifted more freight from truckload to intermodal to offset rising highway transportation costs. The jump in domestic intermodal volumes shows how quickly freight can move to rail when truckload pricing increases. But the sustainability of that shift will depend on whether railroads can shed the stigma of service meltdowns that occurred five years ago during the pandemic-related freight surge. The Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) reported March domestic volumes grew 9.5% year over year. That came as intermodal providers Knight-Swift Transportation and J.B. Hunt Transport Services reported more than 8% growth last month. IANA also reported that first-quarter domestic intermodal volumes rose 4% over the first quarter of 2025. “We are more optimistic today than we were in January in terms of truck conversion opportunities — primarily in our domestic intermodal business,” Maryclare Kenney, CSX Transportation’s executive vice president of sales, said on the railroad’s earnings call Wednesday. Union Pacific Railroad (UP) reported a first-quarter company record for domestic intermodal, while CSX said total intermodal volume, including international business, rose 6% year over year during the same period. Neither railroad breaks out intermodal volume by container size, but IANA said domestic intermodal traffic in the eastern US jumped nearly 10% year over year in Q1. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="3fd5fdb9-63a9-4a2b-95a1-9fb56e3d7e4b"></dynamic-object></div>Rail visibility provider RailState said UP’s domestic intermodal volume in Southern California climbed more than 20% year over year in the first quarter. CSX, J.B. Hunt, Knight-Swift and Union Pacific all expect domestic intermodal volumes to remain strong in the second quarter as truckload rates rise. The Journal of Commerce forecasts that domestic intermodal volumes will increase 3% to 4.5% year over year in the second quarter, based on an analysis of historical trends. The robust volume outlook comes as Knight-Swift said contract truckload rates could rise by as much as low-double-digit percentages this year, increasing the likelihood of further conversion to intermodal, if railroads can maintain reliable service. Trucking rates have climbed sharply since December due to a combination of severe winter weather, regulatory crackdowns that have canceled the licenses of certain immigrant truck drivers, enhanced enforcement of English language proficiency of all drivers, and surging fuel costs because of the war with Iran. <h3>Intermodal pricing will follow trucking, eventually </h3>Intermodal pricing has yet to respond as sharply as truckload rates, reflecting the usual lag between changes in highway and rail pricing. The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index shows only modest growth in intermodal contract rates through March 31, not enough to match broader inflation in the US. “We are getting some improvement in rate — not near what you are getting on the truckload side — but some improvement,” Knight-Swift CEO Adam Miller said during an earnings call Wednesday. “We expect intermodal to be profitable and to see that improve as the cycle strengthens.” UP said raising intermodal rates depends first on service; railroads can charge shippers more if they deliver a product that provides clear advantages for shippers. “We sell to Denver, we sell Salt Lake City, we sell Santa Teresa [El Paso] and into Mexico,” UP CEO Jim Vena said in an interview with the Journal of Commerce on Thursday. “Price is not always the number that is most important for customers. Many look at it as a full supply chain solution.” Vena said maintaining service also includes constant communication with partners including Hub Group, Knight-Swift, Schneider National, STG Logistics, and other intermodal marketing companies and intermodal shippers. “Our operations department doesn’t make a change without having sales understanding the impact, and sales doesn’t talk about changing freight flows without operations tied into the process,” Vena said. “That’s how we communicate with our customers.” <h3>More growth comes with Howard Street Tunnel </h3>CSX also revealed that double-stack intermodal trains will begin moving through the Howard Street Tunnel in Baltimore <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/csx-restarts-baltimore-tunnel-service-for-double-stack-in-2026-6087384">as soon as next week</a>, expanding service options on a key East Coast corridor. The railroad expects the change to cut a full day off transit times to New Jersey for freight originating in Chicago and for traffic handed off from BNSF Railway in the western US. The savings would come by routing Midwest cargo through Baltimore instead of sending trains through Buffalo and central New York before turning south to New Jersey. CSX’s Kenney said some intermodal growth could come quickly, particularly along the Interstate 95 corridor, but other freight will take longer to win because annual contracts, rather than operational readiness alone, determine cargo flows. “We have been talking to our channel partners and shippers for a while about [Howard Street]; they are very excited about it,” Kenney said. “We are coming to the tail end of this year’s bid season, but we are seeing some traction, and that will continue to build over the course of the next year or so.” Similar to UP, the test for CSX is whether it can maintain reliable service as volumes rise. The railroad has already absorbed a 15% increase in container lifts at its terminal in Fairburn, Georgia, outside Atlanta. Multiple intermodal marketing companies told the Journal of Commerce that truck turn times for retrieving containers at the terminal have ballooned since April 1 amid the higher volumes. “We are focused on continuous improvement and continue to invest in our intermodal facilities to ensure we have the capacity to support customer demand while maintaining service our customers can count on,” CSX said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

North American railroads hauled more than 785,000 domestic containers in March, the third-highest monthly total on record and the strongest March ever, new data shows, as shippers shifted more freight from truckload to intermodal to offset rising highway transportation costs. The jump in domestic intermodal volumes shows how quickly freight can move to rail when truckload pricing increases. But the sustainability of that shift will depend on whether railroads can shed the stigma of service meltdowns that occurred five years ago during the pandemic-related freight surge. The Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) reported March domestic volumes grew 9.5% year over year. That came as intermodal providers Knight-Swift Transportation and J.B. Hunt Transport Services reported more than 8% growth last month. IANA also reported that first-quarter domestic intermodal volumes rose 4% over the first quarter of 2025. “We are more optimistic today than we were in January in terms of truck conversion opportunities — primarily in our domestic intermodal business,” Maryclare Kenney, CSX Transportation’s executive vice president of sales, said on the railroad’s earnings call Wednesday. Union Pacific Railroad (UP) reported a first-quarter company record for domestic intermodal, while CSX said total intermodal volume, including international business, rose 6% year over year during the same period. Neither railroad breaks out intermodal volume by container size, but IANA said domestic intermodal traffic in the eastern US jumped nearly 10% year over year in Q1. Rail visibility provider RailState said UP’s domestic intermodal volume in Southern California climbed more than 20% year over year in the first quarter. CSX, J.B. Hunt, Knight-Swift and Union Pacific all expect domestic intermodal volumes to remain strong in the second quarter as truckload rates rise. The Journal of Commerce forecasts that domestic intermodal volumes will increase 3% to 4.5% year over year in the second quarter, based on an analysis of historical trends. The robust volume outlook comes as Knight-Swift said contract truckload rates could rise by as much as low-double-digit percentages this year, increasing the likelihood of further conversion to intermodal, if railroads can maintain reliable service. Trucking rates have climbed sharply since December due to a combination of severe winter weather, regulatory crackdowns that have canceled the licenses of certain immigrant truck drivers, enhanced enforcement of English language proficiency of all drivers, and surging fuel costs because of the war with Iran. Intermodal pricing will follow trucking, eventually Intermodal pricing has yet to respond as sharply as truckload rates, reflecting the usual lag between changes in highway and rail pricing. The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Index shows only modest growth in intermodal contract rates through March 31, not enough to match broader inflation in the US. “We are getting some improvement in rate — not near what you are getting on the truckload side — but some improvement,” Knight-Swift CEO Adam Miller said during an earnings call Wednesday. “We expect intermodal to be profitable and to see that improve as the cycle strengthens.” UP said raising intermodal rates depends first on service; railroads can charge shippers more if they deliver a product that provides clear advantages for shippers. “We sell to Denver, we sell Salt Lake City, we sell Santa Teresa [El Paso] and into Mexico,” UP CEO Jim Vena said in an interview with the Journal of Commerce on Thursday. “Price is not always the number that is most important for customers. Many look at it as a full supply chain solution.” Vena said maintaining service also includes constant communication with partners including Hub Group, Knight-Swift, Schneider National, STG Logistics, and other intermodal marketing companies and intermodal shippers. “Our operations department doesn’t make a change without having sales understanding the impact, and sales doesn’t talk about changing freight flows without operations tied into the process,” Vena said. “That’s how we communicate with our customers.” More growth comes with Howard Street Tunnel CSX also revealed that double-stack intermodal trains will begin moving through the Howard Street Tunnel in Baltimore as soon as next week , expanding service options on a key East Coast corridor. The railroad expects the change to cut a full day off transit times to New Jersey for freight originating in Chicago and for traffic handed off from BNSF Railway in the western US. The savings would come by routing Midwest cargo through Baltimore instead of sending trains through Buffalo and central New York before turning south to New Jersey. CSX’s Kenney said some intermodal growth could come quickly, particularly along the Interstate 95 corridor, but other freight will take longer to win because annual contracts, rather than operational readiness alone, determine cargo flows. “We have been talking to our channel partners and shippers for a while about [Howard Street]; they are very excited about it,” Kenney said. “We are coming to the tail end of this year’s bid season, but we are seeing some traction, and that will continue to build over the course of the next year or so.” Similar to UP, the test for CSX is whether it can maintain reliable service as volumes rise. The railroad has already absorbed a 15% increase in container lifts at its terminal in Fairburn, Georgia, outside Atlanta. Multiple intermodal marketing companies told the Journal of Commerce that truck turn times for retrieving containers at the terminal have ballooned since April 1 amid the higher volumes. “We are focused on continuous improvement and continue to invest in our intermodal facilities to ensure we have the capacity to support customer demand while maintaining service our customers can count on,” CSX said in a statement to the Journal of Commerce. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

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Soaring truck rates power major rebound in domestic intermodal volume

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Ocean carriers are unable to evacuate the containers quickly due to operational restrictions and/or landside constraints at alternative ports of discharge in the United Arab Emirates and Oman.</div>

Ocean carriers are unable to evacuate the containers quickly due to operational restrictions and/or landside constraints at alternative ports of discharge in the United Arab Emirates and Oman.

<div class="phx-topic">Indian ports offering temporary shelter to stranded Middle East-bound containers are grappling with multiple operational challenges. Notably, the pileup of rerouted hazardous or dangerous cargo containers on dock, especially at Nhava Sheva (JNPA), has become a serious concern for Indian authorities, local sources say. That is because ocean carriers are unable to evacuate the containers quickly due to operational restrictions and/or landside constraints at alternative ports of discharge in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman. Khor Fakkan and Fujairah in the UAE and Sohar in Oman, which have become the supply chain lifeline for trades into the Persian Gulf during the war, are prioritizing general dry cargo handling. Additionally, vessels calling at Omani ports must pre-declare that they carry no dangerous goods. According to data from industry sources, a leading European liner alone is holding about 600 TEUs of rerouted hazardous loads at Nhava Sheva as part of recent trade diversions, exposing the dock to potential safety risks. Sources told the Journal of Commerce that the port authority there has sounded alarm bells through stakeholders about the urgency of clearing accumulated dangerous boxes, saying the cargo could become a ticking time bomb if it continues to be stacked up inside. Responding to that pressure, some carriers are now said to be exploring an alternative evacuation option via the Saudi Red Sea port of Jeddah. Adding to the alarm, the Nhava Sheva region reported multiple incidents of fires breaking out in off-site container storage depots over the past week, although the specifics of the cause were not immediately known. Nhava Sheva’s transshipment volumes in March swelled to 121,247 TEUs, up from 34,883 TEUs in February before the war began, data shows. JNPA was unavailable for comment. <h3>Hazmat exports a concern, too </h3>Mundra, Kandla and Pipavav are the other Indian ports holding Middle East-bound hazmat boxes, albeit fewer than Nhava Sheva, sources say. The predicament of carriers facing Middle East port woes extends to the storage of local/gateway hazmat bookings — mostly Indian chemical exports — already picked up for loading. Asian regional operators typically have a stronger appetite for hazmat handling, so they likely also have such volumes rerouted to India. One major factor driving that specialized shipping activity is the growing scale of lithium battery exports from China to the Middle East for renewable energy and electric vehicle needs, which have now accelerated due to the oil supply shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

Indian ports offering temporary shelter to stranded Middle East-bound containers are grappling with multiple operational challenges. Notably, the pileup of rerouted hazardous or dangerous cargo containers on dock, especially at Nhava Sheva (JNPA), has become a serious concern for Indian authorities, local sources say. That is because ocean carriers are unable to evacuate the containers quickly due to operational restrictions and/or landside constraints at alternative ports of discharge in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman. Khor Fakkan and Fujairah in the UAE and Sohar in Oman, which have become the supply chain lifeline for trades into the Persian Gulf during the war, are prioritizing general dry cargo handling. Additionally, vessels calling at Omani ports must pre-declare that they carry no dangerous goods. According to data from industry sources, a leading European liner alone is holding about 600 TEUs of rerouted hazardous loads at Nhava Sheva as part of recent trade diversions, exposing the dock to potential safety risks. Sources told the Journal of Commerce that the port authority there has sounded alarm bells through stakeholders about the urgency of clearing accumulated dangerous boxes, saying the cargo could become a ticking time bomb if it continues to be stacked up inside. Responding to that pressure, some carriers are now said to be exploring an alternative evacuation option via the Saudi Red Sea port of Jeddah. Adding to the alarm, the Nhava Sheva region reported multiple incidents of fires breaking out in off-site container storage depots over the past week, although the specifics of the cause were not immediately known. Nhava Sheva’s transshipment volumes in March swelled to 121,247 TEUs, up from 34,883 TEUs in February before the war began, data shows. JNPA was unavailable for comment. Hazmat exports a concern, too Mundra, Kandla and Pipavav are the other Indian ports holding Middle East-bound hazmat boxes, albeit fewer than Nhava Sheva, sources say. The predicament of carriers facing Middle East port woes extends to the storage of local/gateway hazmat bookings — mostly Indian chemical exports — already picked up for loading. Asian regional operators typically have a stronger appetite for hazmat handling, so they likely also have such volumes rerouted to India. One major factor driving that specialized shipping activity is the growing scale of lithium battery exports from China to the Middle East for renewable energy and electric vehicle needs, which have now accelerated due to the oil supply shock caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Rerouted Middle East hazmat containers spark safety concerns at Indian ports

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