<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>In the end, does the “why” really matter? After 12 months of planning and countless millions of dollars, isn’t it enough that China said no to the largest vessel-sharing alliance ever proposed?</p></div>

In the end, does the “why” really matter? After 12 months of planning and countless millions of dollars, isn’t it enough that China said no to the largest vessel-sharing alliance ever proposed?

<div><p>In the end, does the “why” really matter? After 12 months of planning and countless millions of dollars, isn’t it enough that China said no to the largest vessel-sharing alliance ever proposed?</p><p>Well, yes, the reasons behind the failed partnership of Maersk Line, CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping Co. do indeed matter. Unfortunately, we may never know the true reasons behind China’s rejection after the three carriers tried in various ways to meet the country’s conditions, according to a report by the global law firm of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher &amp; Flom.</p><p>On its face, of course, the carriers’ share of the...

In the end, does the “why” really matter? After 12 months of planning and countless millions of dollars, isn’t it enough that China said no to the largest vessel-sharing alliance ever proposed? Well, yes, the reasons behind the failed partnership of Maersk Line, CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping Co. do indeed matter. Unfortunately, we may never know the true reasons behind China’s rejection after the three carriers tried in various ways to meet the country’s conditions, according to a report by the global law firm of Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom. On its face, of course, the carriers’ share of the Asia-Europe trade — 42 percent, according to the U.S. Federal Maritime Commission, and 47 percent, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce — would be enough to void the deal, considering the most common threshold for dominant market control is 30 percent. But there’s been enough chatter — some linked directly to the P3 carriers’ themselves — that the lack of a Chinese carrier in the alliance was the real deal-killer. Some have gone as far to say that such a demand was made. Or, if you believe others, it was the centralized command center to be run by former Maersk executive Lars Mikael Jensen that ran afoul of Chinese regulators (though one would think, if true, that could have been rectified by the carriers. That it wasn’t — and that the P3 carriers quickly squashed the P3 after China’s decision — only raises more questions about the carriers’ true commitment to the alliance.). And, if you believe Richard Gluck, an attorney with Garvey Schubert Barer in Washington who chairs its Transportation and Logistics and China Task Force practice groups, it was more about the impact on rates out of China and the broader economic impact. The reasoning behind the latter two possibilities, however, belies a simple fact: Regulatory efforts don’t die with approval of a partnership. Regulatory agencies in Europe, the U.S., Japan and numerous other countries have been anything but passive toward carriers of all sorts accused of breaching antitrust law. In allowing the P3, in fact, the European Commission warned the carriers that it would respond to any complaints of anti-competitive behavior. Sure, you say, but the three P3 carriers are European and thus were in line for beneficial treatment by EU antitrust authorities. Valid point, but misguided. The European Commission is eight months into an investigation of Asia-Europe carriers — including Maersk and CMA CGM — over alleged coordination of rate increases and has been an aggressive antitrust officer for the better part of two decades. Is China as harsh on its own? Tough to say, but an argument can be made that it isn’t. The CKYHE Alliance among China Ocean Shipping Co., Japan’s “K” Line, Taiwan’s Yang Ming and Evergreen and South Korea’s Hanjin Shipping, after all, controls 32 percent of the trans-Pacific trade — above that 30 percent threshold that commonly indicates market dominance, according to research analyst Alphaliner. The P3 would have controlled 22 percent of that market. So why does the true reason for China’s decision to stonewall the P3 matter? Because as with any strategic move, lack of visibility leads to guesswork. Ocean carriers, in particular, can’t afford guesswork after collectively losing billions of dollars in four of the last five years. For some, their decisions could be the difference between surviving or not. Maersk, CMA CGM and MSC have such financial heft that they can withstand the rejection of a plan a year in the making and worth millions of dollars. It’s a luxury not everyone can afford. Contact Chris Brooks at cbrooks@joc.com and follow him on Twitter: @cbrooks_joc .

Picking up the P3 pieces

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The monthly year-on-year decline in import TEUs landing in Los Angeles and Long Beach over the past half-year isn’t a cargo swoon, but rather a return to normalcy, according to Larry Gross. </p></div>

The monthly year-on-year decline in import TEUs landing in Los Angeles and Long Beach over the past half-year isn’t a cargo swoon, but rather a return to normalcy, according to Larry Gross.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic"><p>Import TEUs arriving in Southern California have come in lower than the prior year for six of the past seven months. But a focus solely on the year-on-year comparisons can be misleading. What is taking place is not a cargo swoon; it’s a return to normalcy.  </p><p>The chart below tracks import TEUs arriving in California over the long term. The green bars indicate the number of TEUs arriving each calendar quarter, in millions. Two trendlines are added: a four-quarter moving average which shows the situation on a rolling basis, and the underlying linear trend.  </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6172265_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p>For a decade, from 2010 to 2020, California imports followed a stable pattern, slowly increasing each year. The two trendlines were closely aligned during this period. The turn of the decade ushered in a period of turbulence which has now extended for five years. The region was buffeted by the pandemic and the subsequent cargo surge, labor instability on both the West and East coasts, and the US’ uneven tariff policy over the past year. This has generated large oscillations in the four-quarter moving average.  </p><p>What this very simplistic analysis tells us is that currently, with the distorting effects of external events largely removed, we are seeing a return to trend. </p><p>There are two main sources for the recent volatility. The first is variation in the total TEU imports arriving into the US. The second is changing import routings into the heartland. It is this “jump ball” freight which can utilize a variety of entry ports on both coasts. Insight into what is happening in this regard can be gleaned from looking at inland point intermodal (IPI, or the inland movement of ISO containers via rail) and transloads emerging from California. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="9a3e536e-8629-4568-b52a-ec7ceb01aeec"></dynamic-object></div><p>From the beginning of 2023 to the end of 2024, import TEUs leaving California via IPI grew steadily, from an estimated 445,000 in Q1 2023 to 817,000 in Q4 2024, an increase of 84%. Over the same period, import TEUs arriving each quarter grew by “only” 55%. For 2023, about 23% of import TEUs arriving in California exited the state via IPI. In 2024, that rose to 26%, with IPI peaking in Q1 2025 at over 28%. A substantial share of the overall import increase was generated by IPI movements inland from California. </p><p>But after peaking in early 2025, the situation has changed. IPI share has steadily declined since then, with 25.3% IPI share in the fourth quarter of 2025.  </p><h3>‘Complex’ transloading lags </h3><p>The story is a bit different for transloads. TEUs exiting California in the form of transloads grew by only 28% over the same 2023-2025 period during which IPI grew 84%. Roughly 47% of import TEUs arriving in California exited the state as transloads in 2023. By 2025, this figure had fallen to about 40%. Why the difference? Transloading arrangements are much more complex and harder to change than IPI. It is much simpler to change the port of arrival for a container destined to move inland intact than it is to create additional transloading capacity. </p><p>But here again, normalcy is returning. While IPI volume dropped 16% from Q3 2025 to year’s end, transload volume increased for the second consecutive quarter, by over 4%. This divergence is normal seasonal behavior which generally sees increased transload share in Q4, when fast delivery and speed to market is emphasized. </p><p>Looking forward, in the absence of further disruption (a pretty heroic assumption these days), California imports can expect to see some continuing downward pressure as the Red Sea/Suez Canal route continues to gradually open. This will reduce the cost and time involved in East Coast routings and move the economic dividing line between the West Coast and the East Coast a bit further westward. This will potentially cost the West Coast some additional share of the “jump ball” freight. </p><p><i>Larry Gross is president and founder of Gross Transportation Consulting. Contact him at </i><a href="mailto:lawrencejgross@gmail.com"><i>lawrencejgross@gmail.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

Import TEUs arriving in Southern California have come in lower than the prior year for six of the past seven months. But a focus solely on the year-on-year comparisons can be misleading. What is taking place is not a cargo swoon; it’s a return to normalcy. The chart below tracks import TEUs arriving in California over the long term. The green bars indicate the number of TEUs arriving each calendar quarter, in millions. Two trendlines are added: a four-quarter moving average which shows the situation on a rolling basis, and the underlying linear trend. For a decade, from 2010 to 2020, California imports followed a stable pattern, slowly increasing each year. The two trendlines were closely aligned during this period. The turn of the decade ushered in a period of turbulence which has now extended for five years. The region was buffeted by the pandemic and the subsequent cargo surge, labor instability on both the West and East coasts, and the US’ uneven tariff policy over the past year. This has generated large oscillations in the four-quarter moving average. What this very simplistic analysis tells us is that currently, with the distorting effects of external events largely removed, we are seeing a return to trend. There are two main sources for the recent volatility. The first is variation in the total TEU imports arriving into the US. The second is changing import routings into the heartland. It is this “jump ball” freight which can utilize a variety of entry ports on both coasts. Insight into what is happening in this regard can be gleaned from looking at inland point intermodal (IPI, or the inland movement of ISO containers via rail) and transloads emerging from California. From the beginning of 2023 to the end of 2024, import TEUs leaving California via IPI grew steadily, from an estimated 445,000 in Q1 2023 to 817,000 in Q4 2024, an increase of 84%. Over the same period, import TEUs arriving each quarter grew by “only” 55%. For 2023, about 23% of import TEUs arriving in California exited the state via IPI. In 2024, that rose to 26%, with IPI peaking in Q1 2025 at over 28%. A substantial share of the overall import increase was generated by IPI movements inland from California. But after peaking in early 2025, the situation has changed. IPI share has steadily declined since then, with 25.3% IPI share in the fourth quarter of 2025. ‘Complex’ transloading lags The story is a bit different for transloads. TEUs exiting California in the form of transloads grew by only 28% over the same 2023-2025 period during which IPI grew 84%. Roughly 47% of import TEUs arriving in California exited the state as transloads in 2023. By 2025, this figure had fallen to about 40%. Why the difference? Transloading arrangements are much more complex and harder to change than IPI. It is much simpler to change the port of arrival for a container destined to move inland intact than it is to create additional transloading capacity. But here again, normalcy is returning. While IPI volume dropped 16% from Q3 2025 to year’s end, transload volume increased for the second consecutive quarter, by over 4%. This divergence is normal seasonal behavior which generally sees increased transload share in Q4, when fast delivery and speed to market is emphasized. Looking forward, in the absence of further disruption (a pretty heroic assumption these days), California imports can expect to see some continuing downward pressure as the Red Sea/Suez Canal route continues to gradually open. This will reduce the cost and time involved in East Coast routings and move the economic dividing line between the West Coast and the East Coast a bit further westward. This will potentially cost the West Coast some additional share of the “jump ball” freight. Larry Gross is president and founder of Gross Transportation Consulting. Contact him at lawrencejgross@gmail.com .

Surface

Trans-Atlantic

North American ports

North-American rail

Maritime

Southern California imports ‘return to trend’ after lengthy period of turbulence

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>If trucking rates remain elevated into the spring, carriers will likely move to push prices higher on new and existing contracts in the second half of the year.</p></div>

If trucking rates remain elevated into the spring, carriers will likely move to push prices higher on new and existing contracts in the second half of the year.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>US trucking executives are beginning to feel better about the state of the freight economy, hoping tighter capacity will lead to higher rates and, ultimately, an end to the long freight recession.  </p><p>The increasingly upbeat mood comes as spot dry-van rates, as compiled by DAT Freight and Analytics, remain elevated compared with a year ago, even after the disruptive winter weather of January subsided. The average rate, excluding fuel, on DAT’s top 50 US lanes has hovered near $2.30 per mile this month, up 18% to 20% compared with the same period a year ago. </p><p>Adam Miller, CEO of Knight-Swift Transportation, told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i> that the market is balanced between carriers and shippers. He noted that the reaction to the winter storms and frigid temperatures last month were in stark contrast to January 2025, when a similar snowstorm had zero impact on spot market rates. </p><p>“It kind of feels like a little bit of Goldilocks right now,” Miller said. “Inflation seems to be under control. I think it’s positioning for demand to see some life because it’s been relatively muted. While capacity continues to exit, I think that puts the supply-demand relationship in a much better position [for trucking companies].” </p><p>The snow and ice from the heavy winter storm that blanketed a large portion of the US in late January are melting, and trucks that were sidelined are now back in business.  </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="f7dc31b8-1e1c-4a59-907f-2391c69d4e9f"></dynamic-object></div><p>Trucking executives say there is a feeling that the next two or three weeks will indicate whether this is really the beginning of the end of the three-year freight recession, something that could determine if trucking companies can push contract rate increases on shippers in the coming months.  </p><p>“The farther we can get from storms, if we continue to see that strength, then it’s going to feel a little bit different this year than the last few years,” Brad Hicks, president of Dedicated Contract Services at J.B. Hunt, said Tuesday at Barclays’ Annual Industrial Select Conference in Miami. “We have had a lot of disruptions from winter weather. We’ve had a lot of customer meetings over the last several weeks, and I would say it should be no surprise that no customer is raising their hands saying, ‘can’t wait to pay you more.’” </p><h3>Gain in Cass Index for January </h3><p>The Cass Freight Index suggests the changes taking place in the truckload market might be more than a weather disruption. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, a measurement of rates, rose 3.2% year over year in January. </p><p>“This index is mostly comprised of contract rates, and anecdotally we hear about more shippers initiating one-year bids, suggesting movement in the cycle beyond just weather effects,” Tim Denoyer, author of the Cass Freight Index, wrote Tuesday. </p><p>The 3.2% hike is consistent with what carrier Werner Enterprises is seeing. </p><p>“Low to mid-single digits on our contract renewals would be really the starting point there,” Chris Neal, Werner’s senior vice president of pricing, said at the Citi Global Industrial Tech &amp; Mobility Conference Tuesday. "We’ve had some good success already early in the year with some of those renewals.” </p><p>Werner CEO Derek Leathers admitted while the winter weather played a role, the recovery is also supply-driven <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/usdot-releases-interim-final-rule-on-non-domiciled-cdl-holders-6169023">as the federal government cracks down on non-domiciled commercial drivers’ licenses</a> and English language proficiency of truckers in the US.  </p><p>“You’re finally starting to see a cleansing of some of the capacity out there that needed to be addressed,” Leathers said at the Citi Global conference. “It’s been mostly supply-driven up until now, and with some signs now of a little bit of demand spark coupled with that, it puts us in a pretty optimistic position.” </p><p><i>Contact Dan Ronan at </i><a href="mailto:contactdanronan@gmail.com"><i>contactdanronan@gmail.com</i></a>.</p></div>

US trucking executives are beginning to feel better about the state of the freight economy, hoping tighter capacity will lead to higher rates and, ultimately, an end to the long freight recession. The increasingly upbeat mood comes as spot dry-van rates, as compiled by DAT Freight and Analytics, remain elevated compared with a year ago, even after the disruptive winter weather of January subsided. The average rate, excluding fuel, on DAT’s top 50 US lanes has hovered near $2.30 per mile this month, up 18% to 20% compared with the same period a year ago. Adam Miller, CEO of Knight-Swift Transportation, told the Journal of Commerce that the market is balanced between carriers and shippers. He noted that the reaction to the winter storms and frigid temperatures last month were in stark contrast to January 2025, when a similar snowstorm had zero impact on spot market rates. “It kind of feels like a little bit of Goldilocks right now,” Miller said. “Inflation seems to be under control. I think it’s positioning for demand to see some life because it’s been relatively muted. While capacity continues to exit, I think that puts the supply-demand relationship in a much better position [for trucking companies].” The snow and ice from the heavy winter storm that blanketed a large portion of the US in late January are melting, and trucks that were sidelined are now back in business. Trucking executives say there is a feeling that the next two or three weeks will indicate whether this is really the beginning of the end of the three-year freight recession, something that could determine if trucking companies can push contract rate increases on shippers in the coming months. “The farther we can get from storms, if we continue to see that strength, then it’s going to feel a little bit different this year than the last few years,” Brad Hicks, president of Dedicated Contract Services at J.B. Hunt, said Tuesday at Barclays’ Annual Industrial Select Conference in Miami. “We have had a lot of disruptions from winter weather. We’ve had a lot of customer meetings over the last several weeks, and I would say it should be no surprise that no customer is raising their hands saying, ‘can’t wait to pay you more.’” Gain in Cass Index for January The Cass Freight Index suggests the changes taking place in the truckload market might be more than a weather disruption. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, a measurement of rates, rose 3.2% year over year in January. “This index is mostly comprised of contract rates, and anecdotally we hear about more shippers initiating one-year bids, suggesting movement in the cycle beyond just weather effects,” Tim Denoyer, author of the Cass Freight Index, wrote Tuesday. The 3.2% hike is consistent with what carrier Werner Enterprises is seeing. “Low to mid-single digits on our contract renewals would be really the starting point there,” Chris Neal, Werner’s senior vice president of pricing, said at the Citi Global Industrial Tech & Mobility Conference Tuesday. "We’ve had some good success already early in the year with some of those renewals.” Werner CEO Derek Leathers admitted while the winter weather played a role, the recovery is also supply-driven as the federal government cracks down on non-domiciled commercial drivers’ licenses and English language proficiency of truckers in the US. “You’re finally starting to see a cleansing of some of the capacity out there that needed to be addressed,” Leathers said at the Citi Global conference. “It’s been mostly supply-driven up until now, and with some signs now of a little bit of demand spark coupled with that, it puts us in a pretty optimistic position.” Contact Dan Ronan at contactdanronan@gmail.com .

Trucking News

Truckload

Trucking executives buoyed by market signals as winter exit nears

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>CEO Rodolphe Saadé said the deal deepened a strategic partnership between the carrier and India that has existed for almost 40 years, adding the liner would also expand its engagement in container manufacturing and ship recycling.</p></div>

CEO Rodolphe Saadé said the deal deepened a strategic partnership between the carrier and India that has existed for almost 40 years, adding the liner would also expand its engagement in container manufacturing and ship recycling.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>CMA CGM has signed a deal with India’s Cochin Shipyard Limited for six dual-fuel liquefied natural gas-powered ships of 1,700-TEU capacity, the carrier announced Wednesday. </p><p>The order was made during a visit to New Delhi by CMA CGM executives that included a pledge to add another 1,500 seafarer recruits to the 1,000 already employed by CMA Ships in the country. </p><p>CMA CGM CEO Rodolphe Saadé said the deal deepened a strategic partnership between the carrier and India that has existed for almost 40 years, noting CMA CGM would also expand its engagement in container manufacturing and ship recycling.  </p><p>“This is fully aligned with Prime Minister Modi’s Maritime Vision 2047 to position India as a major maritime nation,” Saadé said. “As corridors such as India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) develop ... CMA CGM stands ready to contribute to this new phase of global trade.”  </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="9a6c3727-a34d-4589-aa4a-e7d495b101d4"></dynamic-object></div><p>In partnership with technology and digital consultant Capgemini, CMA CGM has also established a dedicated research and development (R&amp;D) hub in India, positioning the country as a key global center for innovation within the group. The India R&amp;D hub is involved in developing next-generation digital and AI-enabled solutions that support CMA CGM’s worldwide operations. </p><p>New Delhi in recent years has invested heavily in freight infrastructure modernization through public-private partnerships and pushed digital logistics solutions along with sweeping policy reforms to ease trade processes. </p><p><i>Contact Greg Knowler at </i><a href=""><i>greg.knowler@spglobal.com</i></a><i>.</i>   </p></div>

CMA CGM has signed a deal with India’s Cochin Shipyard Limited for six dual-fuel liquefied natural gas-powered ships of 1,700-TEU capacity, the carrier announced Wednesday. The order was made during a visit to New Delhi by CMA CGM executives that included a pledge to add another 1,500 seafarer recruits to the 1,000 already employed by CMA Ships in the country. CMA CGM CEO Rodolphe Saadé said the deal deepened a strategic partnership between the carrier and India that has existed for almost 40 years, noting CMA CGM would also expand its engagement in container manufacturing and ship recycling. “This is fully aligned with Prime Minister Modi’s Maritime Vision 2047 to position India as a major maritime nation,” Saadé said. “As corridors such as India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) develop ... CMA CGM stands ready to contribute to this new phase of global trade.” In partnership with technology and digital consultant Capgemini, CMA CGM has also established a dedicated research and development (R&D) hub in India, positioning the country as a key global center for innovation within the group. The India R&D hub is involved in developing next-generation digital and AI-enabled solutions that support CMA CGM’s worldwide operations. New Delhi in recent years has invested heavily in freight infrastructure modernization through public-private partnerships and pushed digital logistics solutions along with sweeping policy reforms to ease trade processes. Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com .   

Container lines

CMA CGM inks order for six dual-fuel LNG ships with India yard

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The success of container lines in keeping vessel utilization high by removing functional capacity weakens the network and ups volatility in ocean reliability.</p></div>

The success of container lines in keeping vessel utilization high by removing functional capacity weakens the network and ups volatility in ocean reliability.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>The high level of port-to-port ocean reliability the Gemini Cooperation has delivered since its launch a year ago is pressuring other carriers and alliances to up their game.  </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6172263_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p>Yet the obstacles for ocean carriers to remain profitable are only expanding as liners cycle deeper into overcapacity in the coming years. To protect their profitability, container lines have become better at managing short-term demand and supply and removing functional capacity. Their success in keeping utilization high, paradoxically, weakens the network, said Trine Nielsen, vice president of ocean/global at forwarder Flexport.</p><p>“As ‘micro-events’ [e.g., localized port congestion, labor strikes] are expected to increase due to shifting trade patterns and introducing more mega-ships, we expect network instability to rise,” she said. “In fact, as more capacity enters the market, we anticipate even further instability because we should expect more aggressive capacity management actions by carriers to protect their profitability.” </p><p>Facing congestion at Asia load centers such as Shanghai or Ningbo, ocean carriers may have the vessel omit the port entirely to not throw off the rest of their schedule. In some cases, vessels “swap” calls with one vessel covering Shanghai rather than Ningbo, and vice versa, Nielsen said.  </p><p>“While this maximizes asset utilization and prevents a vessel backlog, it triggers blank sailings and forces customers to deal with rolled cargo and unpredictable transit times,” she said.  </p><h3>Obstacles to reliability ratchet up  </h3><p>Port productivity globally is worsening, with S&amp;P Global’s Container Port Performance Index falling from a reading of 38 in 2020 to zero in 2024. The number of tropical storms has increased in recent years, and the intensity and unpredictability of cyclones has increased in the last decade, said Craig West, CEO/Europe at forecasting company Weathernews.  </p><p>“Volatility is not confined to extreme events. Conditions in the Central Atlantic have recently been practically impassable, with persistent weather patterns across the Bay of Biscay and English Channel leaving vessels drifting for multiple days,” West told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>. “There is no headline-grabbing storm in these situations, yet the commercial damage to uptime and schedule reliability is significant.”  </p><p>Optimistically, the volatility from an overall shambolic network offers increased incentives for ocean carriers to improve their reliability, allowing them to stand out more in a volatile, oft-commoditized market and gain higher and more stable pricing in return. After launching in February 2025, Gemini members Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are making the case that their joint network’s better than 90% reliability is giving customers enough certainty to reduce their inventories by two weeks.  </p><p>Vessels operated within the alliance hit 81% reliability in 2025, according to online benchmarking platform Xeneta’s eeSea data. Global ocean reliability for the entire industry has been falling since July, notching a reading of 25.4% thus far in February, according to eeSea.  </p><div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="4abe02d4-ed18-461a-ac0b-87ef52e3192b"></dynamic-object></div><p>“Shippers are also telling us that one of their priorities for 2026 is service reliability,” said Kelly Buckley, deputy director of ocean procurement at Drewry Supply Chain advisors. “Gemini has really raised the profile of that topic, and we can expect shippers to assess much more carefully on-time performance and lead times as part of their [trans-Pacific service contracting] tender process this year.” </p><h3>Finding reliability in service contracts  </h3><p>The last few years of shipping disruptions due to the pandemic, Suez Canal diversions, and then tariffs left small and medium-size shippers with little time to focus on reliability as they tried to keep their business afloat, Buckley said. Mounting overcapacity gives these shippers more leverage in service contract negotiations and allows them, she said, to “actually start to take a step back and ask questions without fear of the fact that your cargo then may not make it on the vessel the next week.” </p><p>Transparency on schedule changes remains an issue, Buckley said. Shippers still struggle to keep up with nearly last-minute blank notice announcements, and she said some Drewry customers learned after that fact that their cargo was routed through the Suez Canal via the perilous waters of the Red Sea.  </p><p>Meanwhile, although transit time reliability is critical for Sanmar’s new product launches and deliveries from new vendors, it’s only one element of service, said John Janson, global logistics director at the apparel shipper.  </p><p>“Normally, transit reliability is not as important to us if it is within a reasonable timeframe,” he said. “Having the equipment and space is more critical as our origins are counting on being able to load as most do not have storage.”  </p><p>Janson noted that ocean carriers allowed Sanmar — the US’ 79th-largest importer, according to the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>’s 2024 rankings — to exceed forecast volumes for emergencies and guaranteed that shipments would beat tariffs deadlines, saving the company hundreds of thousands of dollars.  </p><p>“No surprise, the folks that stepped up were the ones where we have made the most serious investment in relationships,” he said.  </p><p><i>Contact Mark Szakonyi at </i><a href="mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com"><i>mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

The high level of port-to-port ocean reliability the Gemini Cooperation has delivered since its launch a year ago is pressuring other carriers and alliances to up their game. Yet the obstacles for ocean carriers to remain profitable are only expanding as liners cycle deeper into overcapacity in the coming years. To protect their profitability, container lines have become better at managing short-term demand and supply and removing functional capacity. Their success in keeping utilization high, paradoxically, weakens the network, said Trine Nielsen, vice president of ocean/global at forwarder Flexport. “As ‘micro-events’ [e.g., localized port congestion, labor strikes] are expected to increase due to shifting trade patterns and introducing more mega-ships, we expect network instability to rise,” she said. “In fact, as more capacity enters the market, we anticipate even further instability because we should expect more aggressive capacity management actions by carriers to protect their profitability.” Facing congestion at Asia load centers such as Shanghai or Ningbo, ocean carriers may have the vessel omit the port entirely to not throw off the rest of their schedule. In some cases, vessels “swap” calls with one vessel covering Shanghai rather than Ningbo, and vice versa, Nielsen said. “While this maximizes asset utilization and prevents a vessel backlog, it triggers blank sailings and forces customers to deal with rolled cargo and unpredictable transit times,” she said. Obstacles to reliability ratchet up Port productivity globally is worsening, with S&P Global’s Container Port Performance Index falling from a reading of 38 in 2020 to zero in 2024. The number of tropical storms has increased in recent years, and the intensity and unpredictability of cyclones has increased in the last decade, said Craig West, CEO/Europe at forecasting company Weathernews. “Volatility is not confined to extreme events. Conditions in the Central Atlantic have recently been practically impassable, with persistent weather patterns across the Bay of Biscay and English Channel leaving vessels drifting for multiple days,” West told the Journal of Commerce. “There is no headline-grabbing storm in these situations, yet the commercial damage to uptime and schedule reliability is significant.” Optimistically, the volatility from an overall shambolic network offers increased incentives for ocean carriers to improve their reliability, allowing them to stand out more in a volatile, oft-commoditized market and gain higher and more stable pricing in return. After launching in February 2025, Gemini members Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are making the case that their joint network’s better than 90% reliability is giving customers enough certainty to reduce their inventories by two weeks. Vessels operated within the alliance hit 81% reliability in 2025, according to online benchmarking platform Xeneta’s eeSea data. Global ocean reliability for the entire industry has been falling since July, notching a reading of 25.4% thus far in February, according to eeSea. “Shippers are also telling us that one of their priorities for 2026 is service reliability,” said Kelly Buckley, deputy director of ocean procurement at Drewry Supply Chain advisors. “Gemini has really raised the profile of that topic, and we can expect shippers to assess much more carefully on-time performance and lead times as part of their [trans-Pacific service contracting] tender process this year.” Finding reliability in service contracts The last few years of shipping disruptions due to the pandemic, Suez Canal diversions, and then tariffs left small and medium-size shippers with little time to focus on reliability as they tried to keep their business afloat, Buckley said. Mounting overcapacity gives these shippers more leverage in service contract negotiations and allows them, she said, to “actually start to take a step back and ask questions without fear of the fact that your cargo then may not make it on the vessel the next week.” Transparency on schedule changes remains an issue, Buckley said. Shippers still struggle to keep up with nearly last-minute blank notice announcements, and she said some Drewry customers learned after that fact that their cargo was routed through the Suez Canal via the perilous waters of the Red Sea. Meanwhile, although transit time reliability is critical for Sanmar’s new product launches and deliveries from new vendors, it’s only one element of service, said John Janson, global logistics director at the apparel shipper. “Normally, transit reliability is not as important to us if it is within a reasonable timeframe,” he said. “Having the equipment and space is more critical as our origins are counting on being able to load as most do not have storage.” Janson noted that ocean carriers allowed Sanmar — the US’ 79th-largest importer, according to the Journal of Commerce’s 2024 rankings — to exceed forecast volumes for emergencies and guaranteed that shipments would beat tariffs deadlines, saving the company hundreds of thousands of dollars. “No surprise, the folks that stepped up were the ones where we have made the most serious investment in relationships,” he said. Contact Mark Szakonyi at mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Trans-Pacific

Container Shipping News

Greater capacity control needs hinder ocean reliability efforts

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>As volumes of new energy generation and storage technologies increase, shippers expect more documentation, transparency and greater control over risk, according to project forwarders and carriers.</p></div>

As volumes of new energy generation and storage technologies increase, shippers expect more documentation, transparency and greater control over risk, according to project forwarders and carriers.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>A nascent boom in the transport of new power-related technologies such as large scale battery energy storage system (BESS) units is placing a higher compliance burden on project logistics professionals, from dangerous goods regulations and port processes to biosecurity and onsite safety requirements. </p><p>Regulators and government authorities are restricting approval pathways, and shippers expect more documentation, more transparency, and greater control over risk, Colin Charnock, group CEO of forwarder Trans Global Projects (TGP), told the <i>Journal of Commerce.</i> </p><p>“The power sector’s longstanding high expectations are not only continuing but intensifying,” Charnock said. “Logistics providers must operate with deeper technical expertise, stronger quality governance and more structured execution models. </p><p>“Capacity planning, specialized equipment availability and cross-border regulatory alignment will all become more challenging as demand increases, particularly for remote-area deliveries, renewable energy projects and next-generation storage systems,” he added. </p><p>And although it may be supercharged, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/lumpy-project-cargo-demand-to-lead-to-two-tier-mpv-market-6164866">the power drive isn’t likely to be steady or uniform</a>, according to a spokesperson for Chipolbrok who did not want to be identified. </p><p>The heavy-lift and multipurpose vessel (MPV) operator has seen a “remarkable decline” in oil and gas development <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/reversal-in-us-clean-energy-investment-signals-shift-in-project-cargo-momentum-6169519">outside the US</a>, with traditional power plant equipment volumes now “significantly exceeded” by demand from renewable energy and infrastructure projects, the spokesperson said. </p><p>Earlier this year, Chipolbrok announced an order for up to 10 60,800-deadweight-ton MPVs that will increase its fleet to more than 40 vessels. The ships, the first of which is scheduled for delivery in November 2027, will be capable of carrying containerized energy storage systems, battery packs and electrical charging equipment, as well as other power-related project cargoes such as wind farm components. </p><p>Demand is also uneven among geographical regions, the spokesperson said, adding that Chipolbrok is “focusing heavily on developments in the Arab world and the Indian subcontinent.” </p><p>The situation in Central Europe, however, remains “somewhat unclear,” he said, as infrastructure projects have been overshadowed by military buildup and the war in Ukraine, even though there is a significant need for development there. </p><p>Investors, developers and logistics providers must also deal with sudden policy upheavals, such as the Trump administration’s decision to cancel five major US offshore wind projects in late 2025. A January court ruling allowed construction to resume on all five sites — Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind-Commercial, Empire Wind 1, Revolution Wind, Sunrise Wind, and Vineyard Wind 1 — but the administration plans to appeal that decision, US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHSzhcphfkc">in an interview with Bloomberg Television.</a></p><h3>An ‘evolving’ environment  </h3><p>Charnock said the global transition toward lower- and zero-carbon energy sources has further accelerated freight demand from the power generation and storage sector, but noted that TGP’s current cargo pipeline “spans every major segment of the sector: hydrogen, wind, nuclear, traditional generation and emerging technologies.” </p><p>Although the logistics provider’s approach to transporting renewable power project cargoes does not differ fundamentally from moving conventional energy freight, the variety of equipment is increasing and each technology brings its own regulatory and operational challenges, he said. </p><p>“Many of the core components, such as transformers, cables and control systems, are identical across both conventional and renewable applications,” Charnock said. “What differs is the regulatory framework around each technology, the sequencing of deliveries and in some cases the level of scrutiny from authorities and investors.” </p><p>Charnock cited a recent delivery of 48 lithium BESS units from China to a remote site in Western Australia, the region’s first approved lithium battery import, as an example of the more stringent safety, compliance and risk management environment around new power technologies. </p><p>Operationally, the move involved breakbulk ocean transport, specialized handling equipment and a challenging 90-km final leg across a dirt road. It also required “extensive compliance work,” he said, including a two year consultation process to secure port approval under new International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations, strict dangerous goods procedures, high pressure cleaning, and detailed biosecurity and customs controls.  </p><h3>‘Elevated safety protocol’ </h3><p>Jack Zhou, general manager at MPV operator AAL Shipping, said transporting IMO-classified cargo such as BESS units “requires elevated security documentation and safety protocol.” </p><p>For starters, all AAL vessels hold a Document of Compliance for the Carriage of Dangerous Goods, which includes tailored onboard contingency plans covering spillage, fire and other emergency scenarios involving BESS units. </p><p>“To further enhance the safety of the vessel and monitor the internal temperature of the BESS units, AAL has invested in flammable-gas detectors, temperature and humidity monitoring systems, portable thermal cameras and high-capacity submersible pumps,” Zhou told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>. “Crews undergo specific drills prior to each shipment and vessels are equipped with toxic-gas protective gear.”   </p><p>Strict loading controls overseen by the vessel’s Officer of the Watch ensure all dangerous goods signals are displayed and that no “hot work,” such as welding the D-rings used for lashing, is carried out after BESS units are loaded onboard. Weather routing experts help the in-house performance optimization team plan voyage routes to minimize vessel motion. During transit, the crew performs regular inspections and activates immediate countermeasures if any irregularities are found. </p><p>“As BESS technology scales and unit sizes grow, AAL expects regulations to further evolve,” Zhou added. </p><p><i>Contact Felicity Landon at </i><a href="mailto:felicity@felicitylandon.com"><i>felicity@felicitylandon.com</i></a>.</p></div>

A nascent boom in the transport of new power-related technologies such as large scale battery energy storage system (BESS) units is placing a higher compliance burden on project logistics professionals, from dangerous goods regulations and port processes to biosecurity and onsite safety requirements. Regulators and government authorities are restricting approval pathways, and shippers expect more documentation, more transparency, and greater control over risk, Colin Charnock, group CEO of forwarder Trans Global Projects (TGP), told the Journal of Commerce. “The power sector’s longstanding high expectations are not only continuing but intensifying,” Charnock said. “Logistics providers must operate with deeper technical expertise, stronger quality governance and more structured execution models. “Capacity planning, specialized equipment availability and cross-border regulatory alignment will all become more challenging as demand increases, particularly for remote-area deliveries, renewable energy projects and next-generation storage systems,” he added. And although it may be supercharged, the power drive isn’t likely to be steady or uniform , according to a spokesperson for Chipolbrok who did not want to be identified. The heavy-lift and multipurpose vessel (MPV) operator has seen a “remarkable decline” in oil and gas development outside the US , with traditional power plant equipment volumes now “significantly exceeded” by demand from renewable energy and infrastructure projects, the spokesperson said. Earlier this year, Chipolbrok announced an order for up to 10 60,800-deadweight-ton MPVs that will increase its fleet to more than 40 vessels. The ships, the first of which is scheduled for delivery in November 2027, will be capable of carrying containerized energy storage systems, battery packs and electrical charging equipment, as well as other power-related project cargoes such as wind farm components. Demand is also uneven among geographical regions, the spokesperson said, adding that Chipolbrok is “focusing heavily on developments in the Arab world and the Indian subcontinent.” The situation in Central Europe, however, remains “somewhat unclear,” he said, as infrastructure projects have been overshadowed by military buildup and the war in Ukraine, even though there is a significant need for development there. Investors, developers and logistics providers must also deal with sudden policy upheavals, such as the Trump administration’s decision to cancel five major US offshore wind projects in late 2025. A January court ruling allowed construction to resume on all five sites — Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind-Commercial, Empire Wind 1, Revolution Wind, Sunrise Wind, and Vineyard Wind 1 — but the administration plans to appeal that decision, US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. An ‘evolving’ environment Charnock said the global transition toward lower- and zero-carbon energy sources has further accelerated freight demand from the power generation and storage sector, but noted that TGP’s current cargo pipeline “spans every major segment of the sector: hydrogen, wind, nuclear, traditional generation and emerging technologies.” Although the logistics provider’s approach to transporting renewable power project cargoes does not differ fundamentally from moving conventional energy freight, the variety of equipment is increasing and each technology brings its own regulatory and operational challenges, he said. “Many of the core components, such as transformers, cables and control systems, are identical across both conventional and renewable applications,” Charnock said. “What differs is the regulatory framework around each technology, the sequencing of deliveries and in some cases the level of scrutiny from authorities and investors.” Charnock cited a recent delivery of 48 lithium BESS units from China to a remote site in Western Australia, the region’s first approved lithium battery import, as an example of the more stringent safety, compliance and risk management environment around new power technologies. Operationally, the move involved breakbulk ocean transport, specialized handling equipment and a challenging 90-km final leg across a dirt road. It also required “extensive compliance work,” he said, including a two year consultation process to secure port approval under new International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations, strict dangerous goods procedures, high pressure cleaning, and detailed biosecurity and customs controls. ‘Elevated safety protocol’ Jack Zhou, general manager at MPV operator AAL Shipping, said transporting IMO-classified cargo such as BESS units “requires elevated security documentation and safety protocol.” For starters, all AAL vessels hold a Document of Compliance for the Carriage of Dangerous Goods, which includes tailored onboard contingency plans covering spillage, fire and other emergency scenarios involving BESS units. “To further enhance the safety of the vessel and monitor the internal temperature of the BESS units, AAL has invested in flammable-gas detectors, temperature and humidity monitoring systems, portable thermal cameras and high-capacity submersible pumps,” Zhou told the Journal of Commerce. “Crews undergo specific drills prior to each shipment and vessels are equipped with toxic-gas protective gear.” Strict loading controls overseen by the vessel’s Officer of the Watch ensure all dangerous goods signals are displayed and that no “hot work,” such as welding the D-rings used for lashing, is carried out after BESS units are loaded onboard. Weather routing experts help the in-house performance optimization team plan voyage routes to minimize vessel motion. During transit, the crew performs regular inspections and activates immediate countermeasures if any irregularities are found. “As BESS technology scales and unit sizes grow, AAL expects regulations to further evolve,” Zhou added. Contact Felicity Landon at felicity@felicitylandon.com .

Breakbulk carriers

Energy projects

Heavy-haul transport

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Growing energy cargo demand brings higher compliance burden

Use code GTW595 at checkout and save $900 on first year of an annual Gold subscription!

Upgrade Subscription - Gold Trials

Become a Gold Subscriber and Save!

Arm your team with the most trusted information portal for the international container shipping industry.

Group Subscriptions - Wide Box

Get into a group subscription today

Use code FTW25 at checkout to save 25% on a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription! 

Subscribe Now - FT to S/SP - Wide Box

SUBSCRIBE AND SAVE 25%

Use code GW595 and upgrade to Gold for just $595! Valid for first year of subscription.

Upgrade Subscription - S/SP to Gold - Wide Box

SAVE $900 ON A GOLD SUBSCRIPTION

Choose a subscription plan that works best for you!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to S/SP - Wide Box

SUBSCRIBE TODAY

Access Journal of Commerce content for 30 days

Free Trial - Wide Box

START A FREE TRIAL TODAY

Use code GW995 at checkout to save $500 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - FT to Gold - Wide Box

SAVE $500 ON A GOLD SUBSCRIPTION

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to Gold - Wide Box

START A FREE TRIAL: Access Journal of Commerce content for 30 days

Free Trial - Offer Box

Free Trial

SUBSCRIBE AND SAVE 25%: Use code FTW25 to save 25% on first year of a Silver or Silver Plus annual subscription!


Subscribe Now - FT to S/SP - Offer Box

Subscribe and Save

GET INTO A GROUP SUBSCRIPTION: Arm your team with unlimited Journal of Commerce content

Group Subscriptions - Offer Box

Group Subscriptions

SUBSCRIBE TODAY: Choose a subscription plan that works best for you!

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to S/SP - Offer Box

UPGRADE TO GOLD AND SAVE: Use code GTW595 at checkout and save $900 on first year of a Gold subscription!

Upgrade Subscription

Subscribe Now - Anonymous to Gold - Offer Box

SAVE $900 ON A GOLD SUBSCRIPTION: Use code GW595 and upgrade to Gold for just $595! Valid on first year of subscription.

Upgrade Subscription - S/SP to Gold - Offer Box

SAVE $500 ON A GOLD SUBSCRIPTION: Use code GW995 and save $500 on the first year of a Gold subscription!

Subscribe Now - FT to Gold - Offer Box

SUBSCRIBE AND SAVE

Monthly publication providing an editorial deep dive into global supply chain news

Journal of Commerce Magazine - Rectangle Box

Journal of Commerce Magazine

A premium access index of savings using domestic intermodal vs. OTR 

ISI Report - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Savings Index

An in-depth analysis of transport trends in the multipurpose and heavy-lift fleet segment

Breakbulk Report - Rectangle Box

Breakbulk Quarterly

An extensive dashboard of charts organized by trade lane, mode, and topic

Gateway - Rectangle Box

Gateway

Customers scoring their intermodal partners to identify the best service providers

Intermodal Service Scorecard - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Service Scorecard

A premium access outlook critical to shippers and transportation providers

QI Report - Rectangle Box

Quarterly Intelligence

The premier conference for the global container shipping and supply chain community

TPM Conference - Rectangle Box

Attend TPM26

The only editorially independent conference for the breakbulk & project cargo industry

Latest News

More News & Analysis

Southern California imports ‘return to trend’ after lengthy period of turbulence

Trucking executives buoyed by market signals as winter exit nears

CMA CGM inks order for six dual-fuel LNG ships with India yard