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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The slow global recovery coupled with the uncertainty of European and Chinese economies have markets, corporations and consumers on edge. The blogosphere and the traditional media are abuzz with proposed remedies for the stumbling economy. Lately, the role of free trade agreements in the recovering economy seems to be one of the most discussed topics.</div>

The slow global recovery coupled with the uncertainty of European and Chinese economies have markets, corporations and consumers on edge. The blogosphere and the traditional media are abuzz with proposed remedies for the stumbling economy. Lately, the role of free trade agreements in the recovering economy seems to be one of the most discussed topics.

<div>One of the best things about social media is that it allows trade nerds like me to debate topics with people all over the world without ever leaving the comfort of my mom’s basement or changing out of my pajamas.OK, I may not have been in my parents’ basement, but I do find myself on Twitter and Facebook daily discussing matters of international trade and the global economy with my counterparts in the industry and academia. The slow global recovery coupled with the uncertainty of European and Chinese economies have markets, corporations and consumers on edge. The blogosphere and the...

One of the best things about social media is that it allows trade nerds like me to debate topics with people all over the world without ever leaving the comfort of my mom’s basement or changing out of my pajamas. OK, I may not have been in my parents’ basement, but I do find myself on Twitter and Facebook daily discussing matters of international trade and the global economy with my counterparts in the industry and academia. The slow global recovery coupled with the uncertainty of European and Chinese economies have markets, corporations and consumers on edge. The blogosphere and the traditional media are abuzz with proposed remedies for the stumbling economy. Lately, the role of free trade agreements in the recovering economy seems to be one of the most discussed topics. Given the state of the American political debate, it’s no surprise that focus has been more toward domestic issues than on expanding duty-free treatment overseas. Issues such as high unemployment, revenue shortfalls and the general adversarial state of Congress have taken the lion’s share of energy from our “body politic.” As an economist, I usually look at what we need to foster export growth and expand our economy. Time and again, that analysis has me evaluating our stance on FTAs. My recent conversations with other policy geeks tend to fall into two discussions: working on improving existing agreements and emphasizing the need to create new FTAs. Focusing on existing FTAs is a great place to start. Given rising labor, energy and transportation costs, more of our clients are taking a second look at Mexico and the duty-free treatment afforded by the North American Free Trade Agreement. In the course of one day this December in China, I counseled four companies on the intricacies of unbolting their production machinery in Shanghai in order to export them to Mexico, where they would be reassembled and put into operation to near-source duty-free goods for the U.S. auto market. Given the reduced transportation costs, reduced cycle times, lower duties and merchandise processing fees, and faster speed to market, the only surprise is that it took so long for this to happen. Most clients consistently point to the dramatic increase in Chinese labor costs over the past five years as the biggest reason for the move. Of course, there was just as much caution as exuberance in my discussions. NAFTA is one of the most misused and incorrectly claimed FTAs we see in the course of auditing our clients’ import processes. Issues related to cartel-driven violence and the need to cross-dock U.S.-bound cargo from Mexico complicate the opportunity. Although it isn’t all rosy on the southern border, the news is improving, and a fresh light is being cast on opportunities in Mexican manufacturing for the U.S. market. We also learned how devastating letting the Generalized System of Preferences slip could be. Because the GSP is a special trade program and not an FTA, it requires periodic congressional approval. Our political process and constituent pressure recently resulted in months of U.S. importers not being able to employ this duty-minimization strategy available on imports of thousands of commodities from 127 countries. Imagine if a similar fate befell NAFTA every few years? It might be time to make the GSP permanent while expanding the number of products provided duty-free treatment. When it comes to the really heated arguments, though, we tend to foam at the mouth on the direction of new FTAs. The prospect of a U.S.-European Union FTA dazzles the imagination. The thought of the world’s two most dominant economies entering a duty-free agreement where each side exports similar products and competes for the same business seems too good to be true. Aside from the economic opportunities it could present for both, it would set the stage for developing numerous rules on global issues facing both regions, including climate change, banking, energy shortages and infrastructure. How likely are we to see a deal in the near term? That’s difficult to say. The EU and Canada have been working on a Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement for some time, and, although they’re close, significant gaps remain. Many people believe the EU doesn’t want to give up too much, fearing this agreement will become the blueprint for the U.S. and Europe. Moreover, we can look at how hotly contested the U.S.-South Korea FTA passage was for insight into the difficulties this pact might face. Disagreements on agriculture and automotive exports alone would be problematic to navigate. Questions remain about why the U.S. wouldn’t push harder for an FTA with other large economies. Japan is the most common example. The U.S. and Japan have had a long, slow road to recovery, and both could benefit from further promoting bilateral trade. While we’re at it, why not continue to explore a comprehensive Pacific Rim deal to make the largest impact possible? For now, the debate will rage on. With so much at stake, the issues will be hotly contested. If you need me, I’ll be in the basement. Pete Mento is director of global customs and trade policy at C.H. Robinson. Contact him at pete.mento@chrobinson.com .

Container lines

Freeing Up Free Trade

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Expansion of two container terminals and construction of a new 200-acre facility to be called Pier 500 will help the port retain its position as the largest US gateway, Executive Director Gene Seroka said in his State of the Port address Thursday.</div>

Expansion of two container terminals and construction of a new 200-acre facility to be called Pier 500 will help the port retain its position as the largest US gateway, Executive Director Gene Seroka said in his State of the Port address Thursday.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">The Port of Los Angeles will expand two existing container terminals and develop an 89-acre chassis operations facility, it announced Thursday. That’s in addition to building a new 200-acre container terminal, a project that was announced last year. In order to retain its position as the largest US container port and accommodate growth, Los Angeles must expand its infrastructure and enable port stakeholders to operate more efficiently using technology, Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director, said in his State of the Port address. “We must build bigger and we must build smarter: bigger capacity, smarter technology, increased sustainability,” Seroka said. The terminal expansion projects include development of a 40-acre site adjacent to Pier 300 and upgrading the LA Til container terminal in the port’s West Basin. The port also plans to develop 80 acres of under-utilized land on Terminal Island into a maritime support facility for chassis parking and maintenance as well as for container pickups and dropoffs, Seroka said. The port last October released a request for proposals (RFP) to evaluate the interest in and feasibility of constructing a 200-acre facility to be called the Pier 500 Marine Container Terminal, which would include 3,000 linear feet of wharf space and two berths. Pier 500, to be developed on landfill, would be the first new container terminal built in Los Angeles in a generation, Seroka said. The project is projected to be completed in 10 years once construction begins. That’s <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/port-of-los-angeles-looks-to-handle-future-growth-with-new-terminal-project-6091694">faster than most new terminals built on landfill</a> because over the past 20 years, rocks removed during other construction projects have been dumped on the 124-acre landfill site, raising it to about 15 feet below the water line. Seroka said the port is in final discussions with Fenix Maritime Services, which operates Pier 300, to develop 40 acres of vacant land adjacent to the 300-acre terminal. The plan would be to add another berth and develop the site for terminal-related operations. Los Angeles will soon be issuing an environmental impact report for the LA Til Container Terminal to upgrade the wharf and rail yard to accommodate larger container ships, Seroka said. The Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex is operating at about 60% capacity utilization, which is a far cry <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/more-data-sharing-crucial-to-avoiding-future-port-congestion-officials-6135162">from the 90%-plus utilization rate</a> during the post-pandemic cargo surge that resulted in vessel backlogs and marine terminal congestion. However, with a projected doubling of container volumes in the port complex by 2040, the expansion projects should ensure that Los Angeles is well-positioned to handle future growth as well as the next generation of container vessels, Seroka said in his address. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="d8f25580-ea17-41e6-be9c-497d1aa8fba5"></dynamic-object></div>Los Angeles last year handled 10.2 million TEUs of laden and empty containers, which was its third-busiest year, he said. The port handled 4.86 million TEUs of container imports from Asia last year, down 0.7% from 2024 but still the most among all US ports, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Long Beach was second with 4.56 million TEUs. <h3>Building a new bridge still possible </h3>Meanwhile, re-decking of the Vincent Thomas Bridge at the entry to the Port of Los Angeles, which will begin in the coming months, will make the bridge safer for the 50,000 vehicles that cross it daily, Seroka said. “But here’s the bigger issue. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/la-port-wants-california-to-raise-bridge-to-accommodate-big-ships-6087396">We also need to raise or replace it to unlock our full terminal capacity north of the bridge</a>. We pushed to do both together,” he said. “That timeline simply didn’t work, but this issue is not going away. We’re working with the governor’s office and California transportation officials to explore all options – which could include building a new crossing.” The port continues to expand and improve its technology-driven programs, including the Port Optimizer to project container volumes in a three-week window, and the Universal Truck Appointment System which has improved gate usage at marine terminals by 20%, Seroka said. “Building smarter also means investing in technology that powers everything we do,” he said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a></div>

The Port of Los Angeles will expand two existing container terminals and develop an 89-acre chassis operations facility, it announced Thursday. That’s in addition to building a new 200-acre container terminal, a project that was announced last year. In order to retain its position as the largest US container port and accommodate growth, Los Angeles must expand its infrastructure and enable port stakeholders to operate more efficiently using technology, Gene Seroka, the port’s executive director, said in his State of the Port address. “We must build bigger and we must build smarter: bigger capacity, smarter technology, increased sustainability,” Seroka said. The terminal expansion projects include development of a 40-acre site adjacent to Pier 300 and upgrading the LA Til container terminal in the port’s West Basin. The port also plans to develop 80 acres of under-utilized land on Terminal Island into a maritime support facility for chassis parking and maintenance as well as for container pickups and dropoffs, Seroka said. The port last October released a request for proposals (RFP) to evaluate the interest in and feasibility of constructing a 200-acre facility to be called the Pier 500 Marine Container Terminal, which would include 3,000 linear feet of wharf space and two berths. Pier 500, to be developed on landfill, would be the first new container terminal built in Los Angeles in a generation, Seroka said. The project is projected to be completed in 10 years once construction begins. That’s faster than most new terminals built on landfill because over the past 20 years, rocks removed during other construction projects have been dumped on the 124-acre landfill site, raising it to about 15 feet below the water line. Seroka said the port is in final discussions with Fenix Maritime Services, which operates Pier 300, to develop 40 acres of vacant land adjacent to the 300-acre terminal. The plan would be to add another berth and develop the site for terminal-related operations. Los Angeles will soon be issuing an environmental impact report for the LA Til Container Terminal to upgrade the wharf and rail yard to accommodate larger container ships, Seroka said. The Los Angeles-Long Beach port complex is operating at about 60% capacity utilization, which is a far cry from the 90%-plus utilization rate during the post-pandemic cargo surge that resulted in vessel backlogs and marine terminal congestion. However, with a projected doubling of container volumes in the port complex by 2040, the expansion projects should ensure that Los Angeles is well-positioned to handle future growth as well as the next generation of container vessels, Seroka said in his address. Los Angeles last year handled 10.2 million TEUs of laden and empty containers, which was its third-busiest year, he said. The port handled 4.86 million TEUs of container imports from Asia last year, down 0.7% from 2024 but still the most among all US ports, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Long Beach was second with 4.56 million TEUs. Building a new bridge still possible Meanwhile, re-decking of the Vincent Thomas Bridge at the entry to the Port of Los Angeles, which will begin in the coming months, will make the bridge safer for the 50,000 vehicles that cross it daily, Seroka said. “But here’s the bigger issue. We also need to raise or replace it to unlock our full terminal capacity north of the bridge . We pushed to do both together,” he said. “That timeline simply didn’t work, but this issue is not going away. We’re working with the governor’s office and California transportation officials to explore all options – which could include building a new crossing.” The port continues to expand and improve its technology-driven programs, including the Port Optimizer to project container volumes in a three-week window, and the Universal Truck Appointment System which has improved gate usage at marine terminals by 20%, Seroka said. “Building smarter also means investing in technology that powers everything we do,” he said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com

Container Shipping News

Port of Los Angeles forging ahead with aggressive construction program 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Tighter capacity amid the federal government’s crackdown on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses and English language proficiency among drivers will likely boost rates, the company says.</div>

Tighter capacity amid the federal government’s crackdown on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses and English language proficiency among drivers will likely boost rates, the company says.

<div class="phx-topic">Truckload shippers should expect their annual contract rates to rise by low-to mid-single-digit percentages due to the likelihood of tighter capacity this year, according to Knight-Swift Transportation. Negotiations are ongoing or about to begin with many truckload customers. The company said the momentum that propelled rates upward in December had trickled into the first couple of weeks of January, while more shippers are shifting their business from non-asset brokers to asset-based carriers. Shippers are making the move because of uneasiness about the federal government’s crackdown on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) and English language proficiency among drivers, Knight Swift said. Shippers who have spoken to the Journal of Commerce have generally said truckload rates are rising 1.5% to 3% in their 2026 bids, although some have been able to lock in unchanged rates by switching away from incumbent carriers. “What we’d be pushing for would be low-to mid-single-digit improvements in contract rates and maybe closer to mid than low,” Knight Swift CEO Adam Miller said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call Wednesday. “Maybe that may not align with what our customers want to see in a pre-bid. Some of this stuff is going to go into a bid to see where the market is from a balance standpoint.” Despite what Knight Swift said was a disappointing peak season, it believes capacity is fragile, as the December spot market surge in truckload showed, and more capacity will come out this year. If a disruption occurred, or manufacturing and industrial demand pick up, then capacity might become tight quickly. Knight-Swift, similar to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/truckload-at-a-tipping-point-intermodal-still-lagging-jb-hunt-6153949">J.B. Hunt Transport Services last week</a>, was careful not to call the end of the freight recession. “We’ve seen head fakes before, but I think we’re feeling better about where this market is headed,” Miller said. “And we do feel better about what the [US Department of Transportation] is doing to clean up capacity in our industry.” The US Department of Transportation and Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, a sub-agency, have cracked down on non-domiciled CDLs issued to non-citizens who have certain types of visas, including asylum seekers. Miller also pointed out that temporary protective status is ending for countries such as Ethiopia, Haiti, and Somalia, which would disqualify those drivers from continuing to operate a truck here. “Also, there were 3,000 [driving] schools recently removed because of noncompliance and another 4,000 schools that have placed on notice for noncompliance,” Miller said. “Two of our schools at Swift were audited, and we passed with flying colors, as we’d expect. So, it is real. It is happening.” <h3>Consolidating LTL business </h3>Knight Swift said it saw some “softness” in less-than-truckload (LTL) demand toward the end of the fourth quarter. The company’s emphasis in 2026 is uniting all its LTL businesses under one brand, AAA Cooper Transportation. When Knight Swift started its LTL division in July 2021, it kept the AAA Cooper and Midwest Motor Express brands separate. It continued to keep the brands separate when acquiring the LTL division of Dependable Highway Express in 2024. Nevertheless, it has reversed course because the company believes it has caused confusion among existing and potential LTL shippers. “We had integrated systems from a back-end perspective between the three businesses that we have combined, [but] it was creating confusion in our sales efforts,” Miller said. “We’ve already seen [a united brand] really help us in our sales efforts to present a single face to our customers and get them comfortable with our ability to deliver across our network in a way that meets their needs.” The company’s intermodal volumes decreased 6% year over year in the fourth quarter, but revenue per load rose 2.8%. Nevertheless, the company highlighted that the division’s operating ratio was 100.1%, still losing money, but only barely, after years of significant operating losses in the business. Swift Intermodal and Hub Group are the two companies who would most benefit if federal regulators approved a deal for Union Pacific Railroad to acquire Norfolk Southern Railway. They are the only two asset-owning intermodal providers in the US who are already exclusive partners to both railroads, making any transition in 2027 relatively seamless. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Truckload shippers should expect their annual contract rates to rise by low-to mid-single-digit percentages due to the likelihood of tighter capacity this year, according to Knight-Swift Transportation. Negotiations are ongoing or about to begin with many truckload customers. The company said the momentum that propelled rates upward in December had trickled into the first couple of weeks of January, while more shippers are shifting their business from non-asset brokers to asset-based carriers. Shippers are making the move because of uneasiness about the federal government’s crackdown on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) and English language proficiency among drivers, Knight Swift said. Shippers who have spoken to the Journal of Commerce have generally said truckload rates are rising 1.5% to 3% in their 2026 bids, although some have been able to lock in unchanged rates by switching away from incumbent carriers. “What we’d be pushing for would be low-to mid-single-digit improvements in contract rates and maybe closer to mid than low,” Knight Swift CEO Adam Miller said during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings call Wednesday. “Maybe that may not align with what our customers want to see in a pre-bid. Some of this stuff is going to go into a bid to see where the market is from a balance standpoint.” Despite what Knight Swift said was a disappointing peak season, it believes capacity is fragile, as the December spot market surge in truckload showed, and more capacity will come out this year. If a disruption occurred, or manufacturing and industrial demand pick up, then capacity might become tight quickly. Knight-Swift, similar to J.B. Hunt Transport Services last week , was careful not to call the end of the freight recession. “We’ve seen head fakes before, but I think we’re feeling better about where this market is headed,” Miller said. “And we do feel better about what the [US Department of Transportation] is doing to clean up capacity in our industry.” The US Department of Transportation and Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration, a sub-agency, have cracked down on non-domiciled CDLs issued to non-citizens who have certain types of visas, including asylum seekers. Miller also pointed out that temporary protective status is ending for countries such as Ethiopia, Haiti, and Somalia, which would disqualify those drivers from continuing to operate a truck here. “Also, there were 3,000 [driving] schools recently removed because of noncompliance and another 4,000 schools that have placed on notice for noncompliance,” Miller said. “Two of our schools at Swift were audited, and we passed with flying colors, as we’d expect. So, it is real. It is happening.” Consolidating LTL business Knight Swift said it saw some “softness” in less-than-truckload (LTL) demand toward the end of the fourth quarter. The company’s emphasis in 2026 is uniting all its LTL businesses under one brand, AAA Cooper Transportation. When Knight Swift started its LTL division in July 2021, it kept the AAA Cooper and Midwest Motor Express brands separate. It continued to keep the brands separate when acquiring the LTL division of Dependable Highway Express in 2024. Nevertheless, it has reversed course because the company believes it has caused confusion among existing and potential LTL shippers. “We had integrated systems from a back-end perspective between the three businesses that we have combined, [but] it was creating confusion in our sales efforts,” Miller said. “We’ve already seen [a united brand] really help us in our sales efforts to present a single face to our customers and get them comfortable with our ability to deliver across our network in a way that meets their needs.” The company’s intermodal volumes decreased 6% year over year in the fourth quarter, but revenue per load rose 2.8%. Nevertheless, the company highlighted that the division’s operating ratio was 100.1%, still losing money, but only barely, after years of significant operating losses in the business. Swift Intermodal and Hub Group are the two companies who would most benefit if federal regulators approved a deal for Union Pacific Railroad to acquire Norfolk Southern Railway. They are the only two asset-owning intermodal providers in the US who are already exclusive partners to both railroads, making any transition in 2027 relatively seamless. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Truckload

Surface

Shippers will see rates climb as truckload capacity tightens: Knight Swift

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The LNG market is cementing its position as the alternative fuel of choice for the container shipping industry with significant expansion in ship orders and global bunkering infrastructure, a SEA-LNG report has found.</div>

The LNG market is cementing its position as the alternative fuel of choice for the container shipping industry with significant expansion in ship orders and global bunkering infrastructure, a SEA-LNG report has found.

<div class="phx-topic">Ocean carriers operating and ordering liquefied natural gas (LNG)-capable vessels are effectively “inoculating” themselves against ongoing regulatory uncertainty, according to industry coalition SEA-LNG. The shift to LNG as an interim alternative fuel reduces emissions to comply with European Union rules and has a lower cost of compliance with EU regulations and potential future decarbonization regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) compared with alternative fuels, SEA-LNG noted in its “View from the Bridge” report released this week. “It is clear LNG is on a runway to the future,” Peter Keller, chairman of SEA-LNG, told the Journal of Commerce in London following publication of the report. "Most of the alternative fuel ships in the container shipping order book are LNG-capable and our direction could not be clearer.” Despite uncertainties caused by the IMO’s decision to delay the adoption of its net-zero framework, the container shipping industry has continued to invest heavily in dual-fuel vessels and bunkering infrastructure. The swelling order book growth in 2025 was dominated by the container sector, which accounted for 88% of LNG dual-fuel orders, with 61% of those orders for vessels with a capacity of 14,500 to 24,000 TEUs. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e8be4ac1-33cb-4758-93c4-1d0f92f52e7d"></dynamic-object></div>Data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global, shows that just over 4 million TEUs of capacity for LNG dual-fuel ships was on order in 2025, compared with 2 million TEUs of methanol-capable vessels. The SEA-LNG report estimated that investment in LNG dual-fuel vessels and associated fuel supply chains over the past 10 years has amounted to more than $150 billion. A large portion of that is going into the supply side, with fuel availability at scale crucial for the global shipping industry. <h3>Surge in European demand </h3>The report said bunkering of liquefied biomethane has surged in Europe over the past year, driven by increasingly stringent EU regulations and voluntary, customer-related commitments. “Demand for LNG as a marine fuel has grown significantly over the past year, driven not only by regulatory developments like FuelEU Maritime but also by the growth of the LNG dual-fuel fleet,” Michael Schaap, commercial director of Titan Clean Fuels, said in the report. In 2024, the LNG market size was about 406 million metric tons, or approximately 100 times the current consumption of LNG as a marine fuel, the report noted. There is over 1 billion metric tons per annum of LNG import terminal capacity with terminals in or near all major bunkering ports. As demand from shipping grows for green methane, biomethane and e-methane, their production facilities can plug into the existing infrastructure. LNG bunkering is currently available in 222 ports worldwide, with plans underway to add a further 622. By the end of 2025, there were 62 LNG bunker vessels operating in hubs such as Rotterdam, Zeebrugge, Barcelona, Singapore, Shanghai, and the US East Coast, and 38 LNG bunker vessels on order. Shell is forecasting an LNG bunker market size of more than 15 million metric tons per annum by 2030, driven by the rapid growth in the LNG dual-fuel fleet and projected declines in LNG prices. Future LNG prices are forecast to drop with approximately 170 million metric tons per annum of new liquefaction capacity coming on stream by 2030, representing about a 42% increase in LNG supply. Regulatory uncertainty reached a head in October last year when the IMO decided to <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/imo-punts-on-pivotal-net-zero-shipping-regulation-6099141">postpone the adoption of its global net-zero framework</a> for a year following robust US-led opposition to the proposed pricing and fuel intensity measures. The IMO will focus on building consensus around its net-zero framework this year before a reconvened Marine Environment Protection Committee meets in October to finalize the legally binding measures. While many member states and non-governmental groups were frustrated, the SEA-LNG report said the delay offered an opportunity for the IMO to find the right way forward. “We need certainty because without that we risk other components getting in the way,” SEA-LNG's Keller told the Journal of Commerce. “Regulations can bring unintended consequences, especially when you are dealing with 176 countries that all have their own ideas of what should be in the regulations.” <h3>Avoiding double compliance costs </h3>The SEA-LNG report called on the IMO to ensure a single global decarbonization framework for maritime, with any local or regional regulations converging with IMO regulations to avoid double compliance costs. The industry coalition wants the net-zero framework to be based on regulations that were goal-based and technology-neutral, protecting first movers and incentivizing solutions that were practical, scalable and investable. “If the IMO makes any fuel prescriptive it could hurt the early movers and we don’t want that,” Keller said. The SEA-LNG report also addressed “methane slip” from ships under power from LNG and “fugitive emissions” in the LNG supply chain, with climate activists pointing out that methane from fossil LNG is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 emissions. SEA-LNG said methane slip had to be resolved if LNG was going to become a long-term and viable solution toward net-zero, and the coalition and other industry groups were making progress in addressing the issue. The report stated that across the global LNG fueled fleet, methane slip in the latest low-pressure engine technologies had fallen by 60% and would be resolved by 2030. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Ocean carriers operating and ordering liquefied natural gas (LNG)-capable vessels are effectively “inoculating” themselves against ongoing regulatory uncertainty, according to industry coalition SEA-LNG. The shift to LNG as an interim alternative fuel reduces emissions to comply with European Union rules and has a lower cost of compliance with EU regulations and potential future decarbonization regulations from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) compared with alternative fuels, SEA-LNG noted in its “View from the Bridge” report released this week. “It is clear LNG is on a runway to the future,” Peter Keller, chairman of SEA-LNG, told the Journal of Commerce in London following publication of the report. "Most of the alternative fuel ships in the container shipping order book are LNG-capable and our direction could not be clearer.” Despite uncertainties caused by the IMO’s decision to delay the adoption of its net-zero framework, the container shipping industry has continued to invest heavily in dual-fuel vessels and bunkering infrastructure. The swelling order book growth in 2025 was dominated by the container sector, which accounted for 88% of LNG dual-fuel orders, with 61% of those orders for vessels with a capacity of 14,500 to 24,000 TEUs. Data from Sea-web, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global, shows that just over 4 million TEUs of capacity for LNG dual-fuel ships was on order in 2025, compared with 2 million TEUs of methanol-capable vessels. The SEA-LNG report estimated that investment in LNG dual-fuel vessels and associated fuel supply chains over the past 10 years has amounted to more than $150 billion. A large portion of that is going into the supply side, with fuel availability at scale crucial for the global shipping industry. Surge in European demand The report said bunkering of liquefied biomethane has surged in Europe over the past year, driven by increasingly stringent EU regulations and voluntary, customer-related commitments. “Demand for LNG as a marine fuel has grown significantly over the past year, driven not only by regulatory developments like FuelEU Maritime but also by the growth of the LNG dual-fuel fleet,” Michael Schaap, commercial director of Titan Clean Fuels, said in the report. In 2024, the LNG market size was about 406 million metric tons, or approximately 100 times the current consumption of LNG as a marine fuel, the report noted. There is over 1 billion metric tons per annum of LNG import terminal capacity with terminals in or near all major bunkering ports. As demand from shipping grows for green methane, biomethane and e-methane, their production facilities can plug into the existing infrastructure. LNG bunkering is currently available in 222 ports worldwide, with plans underway to add a further 622. By the end of 2025, there were 62 LNG bunker vessels operating in hubs such as Rotterdam, Zeebrugge, Barcelona, Singapore, Shanghai, and the US East Coast, and 38 LNG bunker vessels on order. Shell is forecasting an LNG bunker market size of more than 15 million metric tons per annum by 2030, driven by the rapid growth in the LNG dual-fuel fleet and projected declines in LNG prices. Future LNG prices are forecast to drop with approximately 170 million metric tons per annum of new liquefaction capacity coming on stream by 2030, representing about a 42% increase in LNG supply. Regulatory uncertainty reached a head in October last year when the IMO decided to postpone the adoption of its global net-zero framework for a year following robust US-led opposition to the proposed pricing and fuel intensity measures. The IMO will focus on building consensus around its net-zero framework this year before a reconvened Marine Environment Protection Committee meets in October to finalize the legally binding measures. While many member states and non-governmental groups were frustrated, the SEA-LNG report said the delay offered an opportunity for the IMO to find the right way forward. “We need certainty because without that we risk other components getting in the way,” SEA-LNG's Keller told the Journal of Commerce. “Regulations can bring unintended consequences, especially when you are dealing with 176 countries that all have their own ideas of what should be in the regulations.” Avoiding double compliance costs The SEA-LNG report called on the IMO to ensure a single global decarbonization framework for maritime, with any local or regional regulations converging with IMO regulations to avoid double compliance costs. The industry coalition wants the net-zero framework to be based on regulations that were goal-based and technology-neutral, protecting first movers and incentivizing solutions that were practical, scalable and investable. “If the IMO makes any fuel prescriptive it could hurt the early movers and we don’t want that,” Keller said. The SEA-LNG report also addressed “methane slip” from ships under power from LNG and “fugitive emissions” in the LNG supply chain, with climate activists pointing out that methane from fossil LNG is a far more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 emissions. SEA-LNG said methane slip had to be resolved if LNG was going to become a long-term and viable solution toward net-zero, and the coalition and other industry groups were making progress in addressing the issue. The report stated that across the global LNG fueled fleet, methane slip in the latest low-pressure engine technologies had fallen by 60% and would be resolved by 2030. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Clear direction set for LNG amid ongoing regulatory uncertainty: industry group 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The feeling that an arms race for bigger ships and a rush for alternative fuels has overtaken purely rational decision making is strong, writes Jeremy Masters.</div>

The feeling that an arms race for bigger ships and a rush for alternative fuels has overtaken purely rational decision making is strong, writes Jeremy Masters.

<div class="phx-topic">If you look at Alphaliner’s data on the cellular newbuilding order book, there are some striking numbers at both ends of the spectrum. The most obvious place to start is the 18,000- to 24,000-TEU range because that is where the biggest impacts are made in overall capacity injection, and there are multiple knock-on effects through cascading. According to Alphaliner in December, the total TEUs on order in the 18,000- to 24,000-TEU range as a percentage of the existing fleet size was a staggering 81%. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6156554_0.1.jpg"></img></div>If we look at where 18,000- to 24,000-TEU ships are deployed today, based on the capability to handle the vessels, the biggest concentration by far is in the Far East to North Europe and Mediterranean lanes. Given that the trade is already tending to an oversupply position, even just upgrading existing loops is going to severely test the limits of absorption. A return to Suez routing — and thus fewer ships required for the same weekly services — would seem to guarantee a severe overhang of capacity. Given this reality, some of the carriers’ options are: 1.	Tying up whole strings of expensive high-spec ships versus tinkering with blank sailings. This is a tough call, but the economics stack up if the supply/demand position moves enough in favor of the carriers and rates can be significantly increased. 2.	Retaining some loops around the Cape of Good Hope is a justifiable reaction to an unpredictable Middle East situation and would indeed be welcomed by a portion of clients not wishing to be caught with all their fish in the wrong basket. 3.	Super slow-steaming is an option, but of course this will extend transit times and has the potential to create competitive problems if it is not universally applied. Ironically, a reopening of the Suez routing would allow carriers to test the limits on slow-steaming without extending clients’ transit times. 4.	Scrapping is sometimes touted by carrier executives as one of the key cures for overcapacity. But the reality is that the oldest ships are in the smaller sizes, so even if they are scrapped, the impact will not be great unless it’s on a very big scale, and those size ships are currently in great demand. Almost 1.3 million TEUs in capacity for ultra-large container ships was on order in 2025, according to Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. <h3>‘Arms race’ for bigger ships? </h3>Of the options above, pulling full strings of large ships is clearly the most radical and impactful, but may be sidelined because it’s difficult to explain internally and externally could provoke a barrage of complaints and regulatory investigation. As it is likely that the other measures plus some blank sailings simply will not be enough to steer supply down to demand, the next area of attention will be expanding the number of trades where we see 18,000-plus TEU ships. Mediterranean Shipping Co.’s West Africa Express is instructive because it serves two new areas MSC has opened for big ships — West Africa and India. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="83f8b939-db16-47a4-b70a-8715aaf729ec"></dynamic-object></div>West Africa has four ports on that service, but India has only one — Vizhinjam. But there is connectivity at Vizhinjam to both local feeders and other deep-sea services (hub-and-spoke) where the spokes can be short and long. Given that there are several geographies similar to India where there are only a small number of ports able to take the very biggest ships, it could well be that the surplus of big ships creates more hub-and-spoke systems as carriers push these ships into more trades and the limited number of ports that can handle them. These may not initially be the 24,000-TEU ships that would be natural to use to upgrade European services (even if it means having fewer services), but there will be a cascading of capacity and thus a desire to deploy bigger ships in more places. If you are a port or port operator in a region where there are size constraints, there has never been a better time to positively differentiate yourself by upgrading or finding greenfield sites that can accommodate the biggest ships. The feeling that an arms race in the bigger sizes and a rush for alternative fuels has overtaken purely rational decision making is strong. That is reinforced by looking at the smaller-size ships which have been in very heavy demand, so one might expect strong newbuild ordering. Alphaliner reported in December that the order book as a percentage of existing capacity for 4,000- to 5,099-TEU ships was 10.4%, and for 5,100- to 7,499-TEU ships was 7.3%. This has gone up quite a bit in recent months but is still relatively sane. If there is a disconnect today with freight markets, it’s not as widely advertised in the charter market, but in the newbuild market. Jeremy Masters is managing director of Shipping Masters. Contact him at <a href="mailto:jeremy@shippingmastershk.com">jeremy@shippingmastershk.com</a>.</div>

If you look at Alphaliner’s data on the cellular newbuilding order book, there are some striking numbers at both ends of the spectrum. The most obvious place to start is the 18,000- to 24,000-TEU range because that is where the biggest impacts are made in overall capacity injection, and there are multiple knock-on effects through cascading. According to Alphaliner in December, the total TEUs on order in the 18,000- to 24,000-TEU range as a percentage of the existing fleet size was a staggering 81%. If we look at where 18,000- to 24,000-TEU ships are deployed today, based on the capability to handle the vessels, the biggest concentration by far is in the Far East to North Europe and Mediterranean lanes. Given that the trade is already tending to an oversupply position, even just upgrading existing loops is going to severely test the limits of absorption. A return to Suez routing — and thus fewer ships required for the same weekly services — would seem to guarantee a severe overhang of capacity. Given this reality, some of the carriers’ options are: 1. Tying up whole strings of expensive high-spec ships versus tinkering with blank sailings. This is a tough call, but the economics stack up if the supply/demand position moves enough in favor of the carriers and rates can be significantly increased. 2. Retaining some loops around the Cape of Good Hope is a justifiable reaction to an unpredictable Middle East situation and would indeed be welcomed by a portion of clients not wishing to be caught with all their fish in the wrong basket. 3. Super slow-steaming is an option, but of course this will extend transit times and has the potential to create competitive problems if it is not universally applied. Ironically, a reopening of the Suez routing would allow carriers to test the limits on slow-steaming without extending clients’ transit times. 4. Scrapping is sometimes touted by carrier executives as one of the key cures for overcapacity. But the reality is that the oldest ships are in the smaller sizes, so even if they are scrapped, the impact will not be great unless it’s on a very big scale, and those size ships are currently in great demand. Almost 1.3 million TEUs in capacity for ultra-large container ships was on order in 2025, according to Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. ‘Arms race’ for bigger ships? Of the options above, pulling full strings of large ships is clearly the most radical and impactful, but may be sidelined because it’s difficult to explain internally and externally could provoke a barrage of complaints and regulatory investigation. As it is likely that the other measures plus some blank sailings simply will not be enough to steer supply down to demand, the next area of attention will be expanding the number of trades where we see 18,000-plus TEU ships. Mediterranean Shipping Co.’s West Africa Express is instructive because it serves two new areas MSC has opened for big ships — West Africa and India. West Africa has four ports on that service, but India has only one — Vizhinjam. But there is connectivity at Vizhinjam to both local feeders and other deep-sea services (hub-and-spoke) where the spokes can be short and long. Given that there are several geographies similar to India where there are only a small number of ports able to take the very biggest ships, it could well be that the surplus of big ships creates more hub-and-spoke systems as carriers push these ships into more trades and the limited number of ports that can handle them. These may not initially be the 24,000-TEU ships that would be natural to use to upgrade European services (even if it means having fewer services), but there will be a cascading of capacity and thus a desire to deploy bigger ships in more places. If you are a port or port operator in a region where there are size constraints, there has never been a better time to positively differentiate yourself by upgrading or finding greenfield sites that can accommodate the biggest ships. The feeling that an arms race in the bigger sizes and a rush for alternative fuels has overtaken purely rational decision making is strong. That is reinforced by looking at the smaller-size ships which have been in very heavy demand, so one might expect strong newbuild ordering. Alphaliner reported in December that the order book as a percentage of existing capacity for 4,000- to 5,099-TEU ships was 10.4%, and for 5,100- to 7,499-TEU ships was 7.3%. This has gone up quite a bit in recent months but is still relatively sane. If there is a disconnect today with freight markets, it’s not as widely advertised in the charter market, but in the newbuild market. Jeremy Masters is managing director of Shipping Masters. Contact him at jeremy@shippingmastershk.com .

Could the ocean carrier order book be a matter of ‘irrational exuberance’?

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The carrier consortium released details of its new network showing a slight uptick in port calls primarily from Southeast Asia and small rotation changes on the US East Coast.</div>

The carrier consortium released details of its new network showing a slight uptick in port calls primarily from Southeast Asia and small rotation changes on the US East Coast.

<div class="phx-topic">Carriers in the Ocean Alliance will be offering North American shippers more connections from Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent as part of their 2026 network. Ocean Alliance carriers will also make their first return to the Port of Jacksonville in seven years with a new call on their Gulf Coast service. CMA CGM, Cosco Shipping and Evergreen Marine each announced this week the launch of the Ocean Alliance’s “Day 10” product covering 14 services to the North American West Coast and eight to the East Coast. The new network will go into effect as of April. While the number of services to North America did not change compared with the alliance’s 2025 network, the 2026 network to and from the US and Canada does feature new port rotations that highlight the ongoing shift of US importers away from China. The Port of Haiphong will see the biggest increase in North American connectivity. Calls to the Vietnamese port, where <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/cma-cgm-signs-deal-to-develop-600-million-haiphong-terminal-complex-6012131">CMA CGM plans to build a $600 million terminal</a>, will be added to four trans-Pacific services to North America, according to Cosco’s Day 10 schedule. On the West Coast, those services include the Pacific Southwest 9 (PSW9) service to Long Beach and the Pacific Northwest 2 (PNW2) to the ports of Vancouver and Seattle. Haiphong remains a call for Ocean Alliance’s PSW1 service into Long Beach. However, another Long Beach service, PSW10, that previously called Haiphong as part of the 2025 network, appears to have been dropped in favor of the Port of Laem Chabang in Thailand. Ocean Alliance’s 2025 network previously had no regular service between Southeast Asia and the Pacific Northwest. On the East Coast, Haiphong will be added as a call to the USEC3 and 5 services. Haiphong was previously a call only on the Ocean Alliance’s USEC8 service into Norfolk as of 2025, but that call has been replaced with Vietnam’s Cai Mep as of the 2026 network. Laem Chabang will also be on the new rotation for the PSW7 service into Los Angeles. The Laem Chabang call appears to have replaced a call to Malaysia’s Port Klang featured on the 2025 network. The transshipment port of Colombo in Sri Lanka will also be added to the USEC5 service that makes first call at Savannah, adding a second Ocean Alliance service from the Indian subcontinent along with the current USEC3 service rotation. In addition, Ocean Alliance added Taiwan’s Kaohsiung as a backhaul on three West Coast trans-Pacific services, along with a westbound call to South Korea’s Busan. Chinese port rotations will also see small changes in the 2026 network. The southern China port of Yangpu, across the Beibu Gulf from Haiphong, will be added to the front-haul for the PSW9 and PNW2 services to the West Coast. Tianjin will also be added to the PSW5 service, while Hong Kong will be added to the PNW2 service.China’s Xiamen port will get a second service with a new call on the USEC4 service, adding to an existing call on the USEC2 service. But a previous Xiamen call on the USEC5 appears to have been dropped in favor of the new Haiphong call. Amid the ongoing sourcing shift away from China, container volumes from Southeast Asia to the US saw year-over-year gains in every month last year, with 10 of those months seeing double-digit gains, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="021af9b6-860f-45a6-99eb-549dc05cabfe"></dynamic-object></div><h3>Jacksonville gets Far East service</h3>Jacksonville this year will be on the rotation for Ocean Alliance’s USEC6 service that covers the US Gulf Coast. The USEC6 previously featured a call to New Orleans, but it’s not included in the 2026 network. While Jacksonville already has Asia services through the Premier Alliance, Mediterranean Shipping Co. and Zim Integrated Shipping, the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/jaxport-optimistic-on-growth-despite-service-loss-5236112">Ocean Alliance has not been a regular caller to the port since 2019</a> when it dropped Jacksonville on the same service. Other US rotation changes include dropping Charleston from the USEC4 service, while keeping the port on rotation for three other Ocean Alliance services. The USEC4 will replace the Charleston call with a call to Baltimore, but that port will be dropped from the USEC5 service. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Carriers in the Ocean Alliance will be offering North American shippers more connections from Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent as part of their 2026 network. Ocean Alliance carriers will also make their first return to the Port of Jacksonville in seven years with a new call on their Gulf Coast service. CMA CGM, Cosco Shipping and Evergreen Marine each announced this week the launch of the Ocean Alliance’s “Day 10” product covering 14 services to the North American West Coast and eight to the East Coast. The new network will go into effect as of April. While the number of services to North America did not change compared with the alliance’s 2025 network, the 2026 network to and from the US and Canada does feature new port rotations that highlight the ongoing shift of US importers away from China. The Port of Haiphong will see the biggest increase in North American connectivity. Calls to the Vietnamese port, where CMA CGM plans to build a $600 million terminal , will be added to four trans-Pacific services to North America, according to Cosco’s Day 10 schedule. On the West Coast, those services include the Pacific Southwest 9 (PSW9) service to Long Beach and the Pacific Northwest 2 (PNW2) to the ports of Vancouver and Seattle. Haiphong remains a call for Ocean Alliance’s PSW1 service into Long Beach. However, another Long Beach service, PSW10, that previously called Haiphong as part of the 2025 network, appears to have been dropped in favor of the Port of Laem Chabang in Thailand. Ocean Alliance’s 2025 network previously had no regular service between Southeast Asia and the Pacific Northwest. On the East Coast, Haiphong will be added as a call to the USEC3 and 5 services. Haiphong was previously a call only on the Ocean Alliance’s USEC8 service into Norfolk as of 2025, but that call has been replaced with Vietnam’s Cai Mep as of the 2026 network. Laem Chabang will also be on the new rotation for the PSW7 service into Los Angeles. The Laem Chabang call appears to have replaced a call to Malaysia’s Port Klang featured on the 2025 network. The transshipment port of Colombo in Sri Lanka will also be added to the USEC5 service that makes first call at Savannah, adding a second Ocean Alliance service from the Indian subcontinent along with the current USEC3 service rotation. In addition, Ocean Alliance added Taiwan’s Kaohsiung as a backhaul on three West Coast trans-Pacific services, along with a westbound call to South Korea’s Busan. Chinese port rotations will also see small changes in the 2026 network. The southern China port of Yangpu, across the Beibu Gulf from Haiphong, will be added to the front-haul for the PSW9 and PNW2 services to the West Coast. Tianjin will also be added to the PSW5 service, while Hong Kong will be added to the PNW2 service. China’s Xiamen port will get a second service with a new call on the USEC4 service, adding to an existing call on the USEC2 service. But a previous Xiamen call on the USEC5 appears to have been dropped in favor of the new Haiphong call. Amid the ongoing sourcing shift away from China, container volumes from Southeast Asia to the US saw year-over-year gains in every month last year, with 10 of those months seeing double-digit gains, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Jacksonville gets Far East service Jacksonville this year will be on the rotation for Ocean Alliance’s USEC6 service that covers the US Gulf Coast. The USEC6 previously featured a call to New Orleans, but it’s not included in the 2026 network. While Jacksonville already has Asia services through the Premier Alliance, Mediterranean Shipping Co. and Zim Integrated Shipping, the Ocean Alliance has not been a regular caller to the port since 2019 when it dropped Jacksonville on the same service. Other US rotation changes include dropping Charleston from the USEC4 service, while keeping the port on rotation for three other Ocean Alliance services. The USEC4 will replace the Charleston call with a call to Baltimore, but that port will be dropped from the USEC5 service. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Ocean Alliance adding Vietnam calls to North America for 2026

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