Truckload Index Shows Freight Demand Cooling

Truckload freight demand is slowing, according to the Morgan Stanley Truckload Freight Index.

The index, which measures incremental truckload demand against incremental supply, was down 4.4 percent June 25 from its most recent peak on June 16 and 10.1 percent from its high this year on May 14.

“Our index is beginning its late summer seasonal decline earlier than historical seasonality would suggest,” Morgan Stanley analysts William Greene and Adam Longson said in a note to investors.

U.S. Truck shipping costs monthly year-over-year percent change numbers.

The index is still up more than 400 percent from a year ago, but lower than it was in 2008, 2006, 2005 and 2004, according to Morgan Stanley.

That indicates the pace of the recovery may be slowing, and underscores that even in recovery truckload demand is not as strong as it was before the recession.

“At this point, our straight-line forecast implies a strong peak season, but nothing near the peaks of 2004 and 2005,” Longson and Greene said.

Morgan Stanley’s TFI Index tracks the American Trucking Associations’ Truck Tonnage Index, which slipped 2.8 percent from April to May, without seasonal adjustment.

Seasonally adjusted tonnage dropped 0.6 percent in May, ATA said.

--Contact William B. Cassidy at wcassidy@joc.com.