<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>U.S. Customs and Border Protection is reminding travelers that a toy that&amp;rsquo;s popular on Easter in the rest of the world is banned in the U.S., and subject to seizure at the border. 
 </p></div>

U.S. Customs and Border Protection is reminding travelers that a toy that&rsquo;s popular on Easter in the rest of the world is banned in the U.S., and subject to seizure at the border.

<div><p>U.S. Customs and Border Protection is reminding travelers that a toy that&amp;rsquo;s popular on Easter in the rest of the world is banned in the U.S., and subject to seizure at the border. </p><p></p><p></p><p>The Kinder Egg, or Kinder Surprise Egg, is a chocolate egg, according to the Food and Drug Administration, embedded with a &amp;ldquo;non-nutritive object:&amp;rdquo; a small toy that poses a choking hazard. Customs said it seized 25,000 of the eggs in 2010. That included commercial shipments, but most were taken from individuals. </p><p></p><p></p><p>Kinder Eggs were developed by the Italian confectioner Ferrero in 1972, and first marketed in Germany,...

U.S. Customs and Border Protection is reminding travelers that a toy that&rsquo;s popular on Easter in the rest of the world is banned in the U.S., and subject to seizure at the border. The Kinder Egg, or Kinder Surprise Egg, is a chocolate egg, according to the Food and Drug Administration, embedded with a &ldquo;non-nutritive object:&rdquo; a small toy that poses a choking hazard. Customs said it seized 25,000 of the eggs in 2010. That included commercial shipments, but most were taken from individuals. Kinder Eggs were developed by the Italian confectioner Ferrero in 1972, and first marketed in Germany, according to Wikipedia . Ferrero first applied unsuccessfully to market the egg in the U.S. In 2008, it was banned by the Consumer Product Safety Commission. The online source said at least seven children have died of ingesting the toy since 1991. -- Contact R.G. Edmonson at bedmonson@joc.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Customs Reminds Travelers of Banned Chocolate Egg

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>While reefer trade is at the center of carrier booking suspensions because of its time-sensitive nature, many mainline carriers have put a stop to all Middle East shipments until further notice. </p></div>

While reefer trade is at the center of carrier booking suspensions because of its time-sensitive nature, many mainline carriers have put a stop to all Middle East shipments until further notice.

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<div class="phx-topic"><p>Supply chains between India and the Middle East have come to a standstill following the en masse suspension of services and cargo acceptance by ocean carriers serving the trade corridor amid the military conflict between Iran and the US and Israel. </p><p>The economic implications of the developing crisis are enormous for India as it is the second-largest trading partner for the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The two sides in 2022 signed a comprehensive trade pact aimed at pushing non-oil bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030. </p><p>While reefer trade is seen to be at the center of carrier booking suspensions because of its time-sensitive nature, many mainline carriers have already put a stop to all kinds of Middle East shipments until further notice. </p><p>“Effective immediately, we are suspending all new bookings between the Indian Subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) and the Upper Gulf markets of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia (Dammam and Jubail only),” Maersk said in an operational update. </p><p>Mediterranean Shipping Co., Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE) have also halted all Middle East bookings.   </p><p>“For cargo currently in transit or planned shipments, we are closely assessing the situation voyage by voyage,” Singapore-based ONE said.  </p><p>Concurrently, lead mainline carriers on the trade lane have announced hefty war risk or emergency surcharges – ranging between $1,500 to $3,000 per standard container. </p><p>Maersk is the latest operator to have issued that advisory, slapping an “emergency freight increase” levy for the region of $1,800 per TEU, $3,000 per FEU, and $3,800 for reefer boxes. </p><h3>Exports ‘piling up’ on Indian docks </h3><p>Meanwhile, the abrupt cargo flow stoppage and service disruptions have left many Indian docks facing a buildup of containers, with the accumulation expected to aggravate as planned export containers continue to gate in. </p><p>“Cargo booked for Middle East destinations is piling up across Indian ports,” Sunil Vaswani, executive director of the Container Shipping Lines Association (India), told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>. “If the crisis is not resolved quickly, it’s going to cause congestion troubles.” </p><p>The disruptive impact on Indian exports goes beyond the Middle East regional trade.  India's seasonal grape shipments to Europe, which were picking up, now face longer or unpredictable transits due to vessel diversions around southern Africa for westbound services that recently resumed, and then halted, Red Sea/Suez Canal transits. </p><p><i>Contact Bency Mathew at </i><a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com"><i>bencyvmathew@gmail.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

Supply chains between India and the Middle East have come to a standstill following the en masse suspension of services and cargo acceptance by ocean carriers serving the trade corridor amid the military conflict between Iran and the US and Israel. The economic implications of the developing crisis are enormous for India as it is the second-largest trading partner for the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The two sides in 2022 signed a comprehensive trade pact aimed at pushing non-oil bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030. While reefer trade is seen to be at the center of carrier booking suspensions because of its time-sensitive nature, many mainline carriers have already put a stop to all kinds of Middle East shipments until further notice. “Effective immediately, we are suspending all new bookings between the Indian Subcontinent (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) and the Upper Gulf markets of the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia (Dammam and Jubail only),” Maersk said in an operational update. Mediterranean Shipping Co., Hapag-Lloyd and Ocean Network Express (ONE) have also halted all Middle East bookings. “For cargo currently in transit or planned shipments, we are closely assessing the situation voyage by voyage,” Singapore-based ONE said. Concurrently, lead mainline carriers on the trade lane have announced hefty war risk or emergency surcharges – ranging between $1,500 to $3,000 per standard container. Maersk is the latest operator to have issued that advisory, slapping an “emergency freight increase” levy for the region of $1,800 per TEU, $3,000 per FEU, and $3,800 for reefer boxes. Exports ‘piling up’ on Indian docks Meanwhile, the abrupt cargo flow stoppage and service disruptions have left many Indian docks facing a buildup of containers, with the accumulation expected to aggravate as planned export containers continue to gate in. “Cargo booked for Middle East destinations is piling up across Indian ports,” Sunil Vaswani, executive director of the Container Shipping Lines Association (India), told the Journal of Commerce. “If the crisis is not resolved quickly, it’s going to cause congestion troubles.” The disruptive impact on Indian exports goes beyond the Middle East regional trade. India's seasonal grape shipments to Europe, which were picking up, now face longer or unpredictable transits due to vessel diversions around southern Africa for westbound services that recently resumed, and then halted, Red Sea/Suez Canal transits. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Port News

Container lines

Asia-Europe

International ports

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Carriers pause India-Middle East cargo bookings amid Persian Gulf port chaos 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>An expert on Yemen told TPM26 the leadership of the Tehran-backed militant group appears to be split on how best to respond to the attacks on Iran that began over the weekend. </p></div>

An expert on Yemen told TPM26 the leadership of the Tehran-backed militant group appears to be split on how best to respond to the attacks on Iran that began over the weekend.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>Long Beach, California — The next 48 to 72 hours are critical as to how Houthi militants operating in Yemen will react to the US/Israeli bombardment of Iran, specifically what the Tehran-backed rebels may do to once again disrupt shipping in the Red Sea and Suez Canal. </p><p>That’s the assessment of a veteran security analyst speaking to attendees Monday at the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>’s TPM26 conference.  </p><p>Geopolitical expert Hisham Al-Omeisy is a senior Yemen advisor at the European Institute for Peace. He says the leadership of the Houthis appears to be split on how best to respond to the attacks on Iran that began Saturday. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6177003_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p>”A lot of people were waiting for them to act, and now that the attacks are ongoing in Iran, they’ve stayed relatively on the fence,” al-Omeisy said. </p><p>He explained that with the huge US military buildup in the Middle East, if the Houthis were to resume their attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea, it would be, in his words, “a suicide mission.” </p><p>”Houthi leadership, I’ve been talking to people there from Yemen for the past couple of days, and there is a bit of an internal fight where the hardliners are basically trigger happy,” al-Omeisy said. “The hardliners are pushing for action.”  </p><p>Cooler heads within the militants believe that taking military action now would prompt a response from the US and Israel that could degrade the Houthis military capability. </p><p>But al-Omeisy said his sources have told him that to save face, there could be a limited military response from the Houthis.  </p><p>“There are massive protests in Hutu-controlled areas from their base, demanding blood, demanding reaction, especially since part of the Houthi bravado, their rhetoric, you know the slogan, the ‘death to America, death to Israel,’” he said. “People are asking, ‘why aren't you doing something?’” </p><p>Al-Omeisy says the longer the conflict goes without action by the Houthis, they risk losing their legitimacy. </p><p>“We are really holding our breath, waiting for the Houthi reaction,” he said. </p><p>Major container lines have mostly avoided the Red Sea/Suez route since late 2023 when Houthi militants began their attacks on commercial shipping to protest Israel’s move into Gaza, forcing lengthy and costly diversions around southern Africa. Those attacks stopped last October after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, prompting some major carriers to resume transits through the volatile area on a small scale. </p><h3>Paying protection money </h3><p>Al-Omeisy said the Houthis have made side deals with some shipping companies who essentially pay protection money to get their ships through the waters, something considered a cost of doing business in that part of the world. </p><p>“I'm not at liberty to say who, where and when, but there have been payments, and I can't fault them for that,” he said. “People are being pragmatic. They've been cutting their own deals, realizing that's the best way out for certain amounts (of money) that you've just secured the safety of your crews, your ships.” </p><p>That means for the Houthis, it’s a matter of more than just political power; the threat of their attacks has become a profit center. </p><p>”The Houthis are insistent on those attacks, because it’s an income. They’re making a lot of money from it,” al-Omeisy told TPM26. “And you have to remember, it’s not just a dogma, it’s not just a political incentive. There’s also financial incentive.”  </p><p>Appearing on the same conference panel, Robbert van Trooijen, a veteran shipping consultant and executive director of Inception Holdings, noted the financial windfall of the Houthis business. </p><p>“Piracy, regretfully, is still a very lucrative line of business,” he said. </p><p><i>Contact Dan Ronan at </i><a href="mailto:contactdanronan@gmail.com"><i>contactdanronan@gmail.com</i></a><i>.</i> </p></div>

Long Beach, California — The next 48 to 72 hours are critical as to how Houthi militants operating in Yemen will react to the US/Israeli bombardment of Iran, specifically what the Tehran-backed rebels may do to once again disrupt shipping in the Red Sea and Suez Canal. That’s the assessment of a veteran security analyst speaking to attendees Monday at the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference. Geopolitical expert Hisham Al-Omeisy is a senior Yemen advisor at the European Institute for Peace. He says the leadership of the Houthis appears to be split on how best to respond to the attacks on Iran that began Saturday. ”A lot of people were waiting for them to act, and now that the attacks are ongoing in Iran, they’ve stayed relatively on the fence,” al-Omeisy said. He explained that with the huge US military buildup in the Middle East, if the Houthis were to resume their attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea, it would be, in his words, “a suicide mission.” ”Houthi leadership, I’ve been talking to people there from Yemen for the past couple of days, and there is a bit of an internal fight where the hardliners are basically trigger happy,” al-Omeisy said. “The hardliners are pushing for action.” Cooler heads within the militants believe that taking military action now would prompt a response from the US and Israel that could degrade the Houthis military capability. But al-Omeisy said his sources have told him that to save face, there could be a limited military response from the Houthis. “There are massive protests in Hutu-controlled areas from their base, demanding blood, demanding reaction, especially since part of the Houthi bravado, their rhetoric, you know the slogan, the ‘death to America, death to Israel,’” he said. “People are asking, ‘why aren't you doing something?’” Al-Omeisy says the longer the conflict goes without action by the Houthis, they risk losing their legitimacy. “We are really holding our breath, waiting for the Houthi reaction,” he said. Major container lines have mostly avoided the Red Sea/Suez route since late 2023 when Houthi militants began their attacks on commercial shipping to protest Israel’s move into Gaza, forcing lengthy and costly diversions around southern Africa. Those attacks stopped last October after the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, prompting some major carriers to resume transits through the volatile area on a small scale. Paying protection money Al-Omeisy said the Houthis have made side deals with some shipping companies who essentially pay protection money to get their ships through the waters, something considered a cost of doing business in that part of the world. “I'm not at liberty to say who, where and when, but there have been payments, and I can't fault them for that,” he said. “People are being pragmatic. They've been cutting their own deals, realizing that's the best way out for certain amounts (of money) that you've just secured the safety of your crews, your ships.” That means for the Houthis, it’s a matter of more than just political power; the threat of their attacks has become a profit center. ”The Houthis are insistent on those attacks, because it’s an income. They’re making a lot of money from it,” al-Omeisy told TPM26. “And you have to remember, it’s not just a dogma, it’s not just a political incentive. There’s also financial incentive.” Appearing on the same conference panel, Robbert van Trooijen, a veteran shipping consultant and executive director of Inception Holdings, noted the financial windfall of the Houthis business. “Piracy, regretfully, is still a very lucrative line of business,” he said. Contact Dan Ronan at contactdanronan@gmail.com .

TPM26: Shipping waits for Houthi reaction to US/Israeli attacks on Iran

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>As the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran extends into its third day, about 10% of the global container shipping fleet remains stranded inside the Persian Gulf or held up outside.</p></div>

As the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran extends into its third day, about 10% of the global container shipping fleet remains stranded inside the Persian Gulf or held up outside.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>Long Beach, California — The container shipping supply chain is bracing for the ripple effects of the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran that will be felt across global trade lanes, industry executives said Monday. </p><p>As the regional conflict extends into its third day, about 10% of the global container shipping fleet remains stranded inside the Persian Gulf or held up outside the critical waterway, according to Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Ocean Network Express (ONE). </p><p>“Most of the carriers, including ONE, have had to stop all bookings to the Middle East, and it is a significant trade,” Nixon told the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>’s TPM26 conference. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6177002_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p>“All of that cargo is going to start backing up into the hubs and into the key locations in Europe and Asia,” he added. “Those vessels that have cargo for the Middle East will need to turn around and try to take some of that cargo off in places like Colombo, Fujairah and Singapore, and the hubs are going to lose some of their fluidity.” </p><p>Triene Nielsen, vice president of ocean/global at forwarder Flexport, said when a ship fails to meet its normal schedule, the ripple effects can be felt across the network, with carriers trying to prioritize equipment and the movement of empty containers.  </p><p>“Those ripples are not going to come tomorrow, but they might come three, four or eight weeks from now,” she told the conference. “Even if this is mainly a Middle East situation, the equipment issues will be felt on the other trade lanes.”  </p><p>Johan Sigsgaard, executive vice president of Maersk, said just dealing with the containers already on the water was going to be a major challenge as the ships and equipment would effectively be suspended. </p><p>“What we have seen from the last couple of years when these kinds of problems occur is that the same equipment and the same ships are being used worldwide,” Sigsgaard said. “Many of the hubs today touch many trades, particularly the big ones, so depending on how long this goes on for, it will affect more trades than just the Middle East.” </p><h3>Seafarers stranded in Persian Gulf </h3><p>Maersk on Sunday said it had suspended all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed due to threats from Iran to attack ships transiting the waterway. </p><p>Nixon also highlighted the human element, with about 40,000 seafarers impacted by the conflict that has trapped 350 ships inside the Persian Gulf and another 350 outside. </p><p>“Those seafarers will be very concerned,” he said. “Five tankers were attacked in the last 24 hours, one of them at anchor off Oman, and crew have been killed.” </p><p>The International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) and the Joint Negotiating Group (JNG) on Monday designated the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters a “high risk area” that requires carriers to provide enhanced protection measures for seafarers operating in or near the affected waters. </p><p><i>Contact Greg Knowler at </i><a href="greg.knowler@spglobal.com"><i>greg.knowler@spglobal.com</i></a>.</p></div>

Long Beach, California — The container shipping supply chain is bracing for the ripple effects of the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran that will be felt across global trade lanes, industry executives said Monday. As the regional conflict extends into its third day, about 10% of the global container shipping fleet remains stranded inside the Persian Gulf or held up outside the critical waterway, according to Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Ocean Network Express (ONE). “Most of the carriers, including ONE, have had to stop all bookings to the Middle East, and it is a significant trade,” Nixon told the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference. “All of that cargo is going to start backing up into the hubs and into the key locations in Europe and Asia,” he added. “Those vessels that have cargo for the Middle East will need to turn around and try to take some of that cargo off in places like Colombo, Fujairah and Singapore, and the hubs are going to lose some of their fluidity.” Triene Nielsen, vice president of ocean/global at forwarder Flexport, said when a ship fails to meet its normal schedule, the ripple effects can be felt across the network, with carriers trying to prioritize equipment and the movement of empty containers. “Those ripples are not going to come tomorrow, but they might come three, four or eight weeks from now,” she told the conference. “Even if this is mainly a Middle East situation, the equipment issues will be felt on the other trade lanes.” Johan Sigsgaard, executive vice president of Maersk, said just dealing with the containers already on the water was going to be a major challenge as the ships and equipment would effectively be suspended. “What we have seen from the last couple of years when these kinds of problems occur is that the same equipment and the same ships are being used worldwide,” Sigsgaard said. “Many of the hubs today touch many trades, particularly the big ones, so depending on how long this goes on for, it will affect more trades than just the Middle East.” Seafarers stranded in Persian Gulf Maersk on Sunday said it had suspended all vessel crossings in the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively closed due to threats from Iran to attack ships transiting the waterway. Nixon also highlighted the human element, with about 40,000 seafarers impacted by the conflict that has trapped 350 ships inside the Persian Gulf and another 350 outside. “Those seafarers will be very concerned,” he said. “Five tankers were attacked in the last 24 hours, one of them at anchor off Oman, and crew have been killed.” The International Transport Workers’ Federation (ITF) and the Joint Negotiating Group (JNG) on Monday designated the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters a “high risk area” that requires carriers to provide enhanced protection measures for seafarers operating in or near the affected waters. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

TPM26: Middle East conflict to ripple across global trade lanes: industry experts

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The global chief economist for S&amp;P Global Ratings told TPM26 the uncertainties that come with current White House policies are part of the mix when formulating economic forecasts.</p></div>

The global chief economist for S&P Global Ratings told TPM26 the uncertainties that come with current White House policies are part of the mix when formulating economic forecasts.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>Long Beach, California — The unpredictable nature of the Trump administration is simply a given that needs to be taken into account when generating economic forecasts, the global chief economist for S&amp;P Global Ratings said Monday.  </p><p>Dr. Paul Gruenwald, speaking at the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>’s TPM26 conference, presented a general overview of the US and world economies. He gave a cautiously optimistic presentation but said there is uncertainty and the possibility of change in many areas, in particular when it comes to US policies. </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6177002_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p>“I like to say that [with] US policy, unpredictability is a feature, not a bug, in this administration,” Gruenwald said. “So that’s kind of the operating model, and we’re going to continue to work with that.” </p><p>Pointing to the US/Israeli military action against Iran, US tariffs and economic sanctions, trade uncertainty, and other periodic disruptions, Gruenwald is forecasting that US economic growth will likely be more than 2% in 2026, but with lower job creation. </p><p>“We’re going to have to think hard about the big events over the last week, the attack on Iran, higher oil prices, a stronger dollar, lower to flat treasuries. If this lasts, higher oil prices are like a tax on growth,” he said. “Obviously, the physical disruption of oil is going to have an impact. So right now, that’s a downside risk, but we will be looking to incorporate that into our scenarios as you go through this round.”  </p><p>Gruenwald said 2025 finished stronger than expected despite the uncertainty over tariffs and other trade disputes because it is difficult to change the overall direction of a $30 trillion dollar a year economy, while trading partners such as China, Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam are adjusting on the fly to the Trump administration policies. </p><p>He said because of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, the US economy is creating fewer jobs per month than previous administrations, but 50,000 jobs per month is adequate to maintain the current 4.3% unemployment rate. </p><p>“The labor market headline number 4.3% unemployment looks good, but if you look at it sector by sector, there’s only one sector in the US that’s adding jobs right now, that’s healthcare,” Gruenwald said. “Tech is losing jobs, manufacturing is losing jobs, government’s losing jobs. Education is kind of a wash, but we’ve got a very narrow base for our reasonably strong economy right now.”  </p><h3>Interest rate cuts likely later this year </h3><p>Gruenwald told TPM26 there is room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in the future, but noted there is no hurry to do that. “We’ve got a couple of cuts from the Fed coming later in the year,” he said. </p><p>Gruenwald said one of the high points in the economy that is helping to keep it relatively strong is the billions of dollars being invested by tech companies and others in artificial intelligence, which proponents believe will make the economy more efficient in the long run. </p><p>“It’s moving the macro needle in a big way,” he said. “The data centers are not just the physical construction. It’s the software, it’s the hardware, it’s the racks, it’s the servers, it’s the HVAC, it’s the cooling, it’s the water, it’s the power, it’s everything else. </p><p>“This is probably going to last for a couple of years, but when that’s finished, we are going to need these operations to deliver the returns that are currently priced in, and as Secretary Yellen said, deliver some of these productivity gains over time,” Gruenwald added. </p><p><i>Contact Dan Ronan at </i><a href="mailto:contactdanronan@gmail.com"><i>contactdanronan@gmail.com</i></a>.</p></div>

Long Beach, California — The unpredictable nature of the Trump administration is simply a given that needs to be taken into account when generating economic forecasts, the global chief economist for S&P Global Ratings said Monday. Dr. Paul Gruenwald, speaking at the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference, presented a general overview of the US and world economies. He gave a cautiously optimistic presentation but said there is uncertainty and the possibility of change in many areas, in particular when it comes to US policies. “I like to say that [with] US policy, unpredictability is a feature, not a bug, in this administration,” Gruenwald said. “So that’s kind of the operating model, and we’re going to continue to work with that.” Pointing to the US/Israeli military action against Iran, US tariffs and economic sanctions, trade uncertainty, and other periodic disruptions, Gruenwald is forecasting that US economic growth will likely be more than 2% in 2026, but with lower job creation. “We’re going to have to think hard about the big events over the last week, the attack on Iran, higher oil prices, a stronger dollar, lower to flat treasuries. If this lasts, higher oil prices are like a tax on growth,” he said. “Obviously, the physical disruption of oil is going to have an impact. So right now, that’s a downside risk, but we will be looking to incorporate that into our scenarios as you go through this round.” Gruenwald said 2025 finished stronger than expected despite the uncertainty over tariffs and other trade disputes because it is difficult to change the overall direction of a $30 trillion dollar a year economy, while trading partners such as China, Canada, Mexico, and Vietnam are adjusting on the fly to the Trump administration policies. He said because of the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown, the US economy is creating fewer jobs per month than previous administrations, but 50,000 jobs per month is adequate to maintain the current 4.3% unemployment rate. “The labor market headline number 4.3% unemployment looks good, but if you look at it sector by sector, there’s only one sector in the US that’s adding jobs right now, that’s healthcare,” Gruenwald said. “Tech is losing jobs, manufacturing is losing jobs, government’s losing jobs. Education is kind of a wash, but we’ve got a very narrow base for our reasonably strong economy right now.” Interest rate cuts likely later this year Gruenwald told TPM26 there is room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in the future, but noted there is no hurry to do that. “We’ve got a couple of cuts from the Fed coming later in the year,” he said. Gruenwald said one of the high points in the economy that is helping to keep it relatively strong is the billions of dollars being invested by tech companies and others in artificial intelligence, which proponents believe will make the economy more efficient in the long run. “It’s moving the macro needle in a big way,” he said. “The data centers are not just the physical construction. It’s the software, it’s the hardware, it’s the racks, it’s the servers, it’s the HVAC, it’s the cooling, it’s the water, it’s the power, it’s everything else. “This is probably going to last for a couple of years, but when that’s finished, we are going to need these operations to deliver the returns that are currently priced in, and as Secretary Yellen said, deliver some of these productivity gains over time,” Gruenwald added. Contact Dan Ronan at contactdanronan@gmail.com .

Supply chain

TPM26: Unpredictability the ‘operating model’ for Trump administration: economist

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper"><p>The ex-US Treasury Secretary said consumers could pull back on spending should crude oil and gasoline prices remain aloft due to the latest attacks on Iran by the US and Israel.   </p></div>

The ex-US Treasury Secretary said consumers could pull back on spending should crude oil and gasoline prices remain aloft due to the latest attacks on Iran by the US and Israel.

<div class="phx-topic"><p>Long Beach, California — The duration of US and Israeli attacks on Iran and the effect on oil prices threaten to push inflation higher and jeopardize the modest growth expected in global container shipping demand for 2026, former US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday. </p><p>Front-month crude oil futures jumped to their highest level in more than a year Monday due to the weekend attacks on Iran. Yellen, speaking during her keynote address at the start of the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>’s TPM26 conference, said the 14 million barrels of crude that flow through the Strait of Hormuz daily have been cut to a trickle, a development that bears watching.   </p><div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6177002_0.1.jpg"></img></div><p>“The risk to the global economy will depend on how long energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted,” Yellen, also former chairperson of the US Federal Reserve, said. “If oil prices do remain higher, then we will really need to worry about the impact on inflation over the next year and it’s likely to have negative consequences for growth.” </p><p>Container shipping demand is expected to increase 1.7% globally this year, according to a forecast from S&amp;P Global Maritime, Trade and Supply Chain, a sister company of the <i>Journal of Commerce</i>. Most of that growth will occur outside of the US, which is likely to see flat results compared with 2025.  </p><p>The US economy is demonstrating some strength, Yellen said, with a low 4.3% unemployment rate, a tapering inflation rate of 3%, and gross domestic product (GDP) expected to grow at a similar rate in the first quarter.  </p><p>However, underneath those figures, Yellen said there are signs of fragility that could upend that growth. The monthly creation of 15,000 jobs in the US in 2025 remains well below trend. She added that consumer spending growth rests largely on high earners, with the top 10% of US household incomes now accounting for half of retail spending.  </p><p>“We have a K-shaped economy and an expansion [in which] upper income households are doing well,” Yellen said. “They’re in good financial shape and driving consumer spending.” </p><h3>Fed could be cautious about new rate cuts </h3><p>The Supreme Court’s recent decision to strike down the Trump administration’s emergency tariff powers could cut the inflation rate modestly in 2026. But with oil prices having the opposite effect, the Federal Reserve may become more cautious about further interest rate cuts, Yellen said.  </p><p>The Fed’s key overnight lending rate, which currently sits between 3.5% and 3.75%, is a driver of mortgage rates and interest on other types of consumer loans. Trump has been browbeating the Fed to bring its key rates below 2% in a bid to stimulate the US economy.  </p><p>“The Fed is terribly worried that it’s not yet gotten inflation back to its target of 2%,” Yellen told TPM26. “It’s not realistic that we’re going to go back to 2% right now. I think the recent Iran situation puts the Fed even more on hold, more reluctant to cut rates.” </p><p><i>Contact Michael Angell at </i><a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com"><i>michael.angell@spglobal.com</i></a><i>.</i>  </p></div>

Long Beach, California — The duration of US and Israeli attacks on Iran and the effect on oil prices threaten to push inflation higher and jeopardize the modest growth expected in global container shipping demand for 2026, former US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Monday. Front-month crude oil futures jumped to their highest level in more than a year Monday due to the weekend attacks on Iran. Yellen, speaking during her keynote address at the start of the Journal of Commerce’s TPM26 conference, said the 14 million barrels of crude that flow through the Strait of Hormuz daily have been cut to a trickle, a development that bears watching. “The risk to the global economy will depend on how long energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted,” Yellen, also former chairperson of the US Federal Reserve, said. “If oil prices do remain higher, then we will really need to worry about the impact on inflation over the next year and it’s likely to have negative consequences for growth.” Container shipping demand is expected to increase 1.7% globally this year, according to a forecast from S&P Global Maritime, Trade and Supply Chain, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce. Most of that growth will occur outside of the US, which is likely to see flat results compared with 2025. The US economy is demonstrating some strength, Yellen said, with a low 4.3% unemployment rate, a tapering inflation rate of 3%, and gross domestic product (GDP) expected to grow at a similar rate in the first quarter. However, underneath those figures, Yellen said there are signs of fragility that could upend that growth. The monthly creation of 15,000 jobs in the US in 2025 remains well below trend. She added that consumer spending growth rests largely on high earners, with the top 10% of US household incomes now accounting for half of retail spending. “We have a K-shaped economy and an expansion [in which] upper income households are doing well,” Yellen said. “They’re in good financial shape and driving consumer spending.” Fed could be cautious about new rate cuts The Supreme Court’s recent decision to strike down the Trump administration’s emergency tariff powers could cut the inflation rate modestly in 2026. But with oil prices having the opposite effect, the Federal Reserve may become more cautious about further interest rate cuts, Yellen said. The Fed’s key overnight lending rate, which currently sits between 3.5% and 3.75%, is a driver of mortgage rates and interest on other types of consumer loans. Trump has been browbeating the Fed to bring its key rates below 2% in a bid to stimulate the US economy. “The Fed is terribly worried that it’s not yet gotten inflation back to its target of 2%,” Yellen told TPM26. “It’s not realistic that we’re going to go back to 2% right now. I think the recent Iran situation puts the Fed even more on hold, more reluctant to cut rates.” Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

TPM26: Iran conflict puts new risk on US economic growth: Yellen 

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