<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Closing the gap between capacity and demand is going to take years, analysts and carriers believe.</div>

Closing the gap between capacity and demand is going to take years, analysts and carriers believe.

<div>To fully appreciate the enormous overcapacity predicament container lines find themselves in, consider these numbers: a record 500,000 twenty-foot-equivalent units will be scrapped by the end of the year and the <a>idle capacity</a> is more than 1.5 million TEUs.Yet even with 2 million TEUs out of service — around 10 percent of the global fleet — container shipping supply will remain above demand for containerized transport for at least the next two years, according to maritime analysts. Alphaliner’s Tan Hua Joo said demand growth will not be more than 2 percent in the next two years. He said even if...

To fully appreciate the enormous overcapacity predicament container lines find themselves in, consider these numbers: a record 500,000 twenty-foot-equivalent units will be scrapped by the end of the year and the idle capacity is more than 1.5 million TEUs.Yet even with 2 million TEUs out of service — around 10 percent of the global fleet — container shipping supply will remain above demand for containerized transport for at least the next two years, according to maritime analysts. Alphaliner’s Tan Hua Joo said demand growth will not be more than 2 percent in the next two years. He said even if the scrapping rate were to continue at the current level, next year’s growth in supply will only be brought down from 6 percent to 5 percent. l “The scrapping is not sufficient to address the demand-supply gap,” he told the Global Liner Shipping Asia conference in Singapore. “On a year-to-year basis, 2016 will have the lowest-ever annual growth recorded in container ship supply at 2.9 percent. That is an all-time low, but will unfortunately bring no recovery in the container markets.”Camille Egloff, partner and managing director at Boston Consulting Group, said BCG had run a projection looking at where demand would go in the next five years. It arrived at an annual growth rate of under 4 percent at best “if everything goes right” and slightly more than 2 percent “if everything goes wrong.” Supply growth would be around 3.7 percent, which wouldn't help narrow gap between supply and demand. “If you were to rebalance the supply and demand gap, you would have to remove another 100 super-large vessels from the global fleet,” she said. Hanjin Shipping’s collapse immediately removed around 600,000 TEUs from service, but much of that capacity will eventually find its way back to work.“So even events such as Hanjin’s collapse does not translate into taking any capacity out of the market because the ships are still there and their owners will try to charter them out. But who will have the guts to start a trend of taking this kind of large capacity out of the market?” l Carriers are struggling to raise freight rates to profit-making levels and regular general rate increases on numerous trades have been undermined by the surplus capacity available. Even the rate bounce from Hanjin's collapse has not been as high as expected since carriers having plenty of capacity available to deploy ships to pick up the slack. SeaIntel's Alan Murphy said the blanking of more than 5 percent of capacity on the trans-Pacific when Hanjin went into receivership did not have the effect one would have expected. "Removing 5 percent of capacity from the trans-Pacific should have been enough to drive a sustained spike in rates," he said. Shipping lines also took a gloomy view of the market, unsurprisingly led by Rickmers Maritime CEO Soren Andersen. The carrier is desperate for the holders of its bonds worth $74.85 million that mature in May 2017 to accept a debt-for-equity swap.Sorensen, a former APL and Maersk Line executive, said the industry was under extreme duress and container shipping has never seen a down cycle of this magnitude or this length.“I get worried when people talk about this being the new normal because it is not. The only question is how many casualties will we see before we get back to a balance between supply and demand?” he said.Andersen said Rickmers had managed to achieve ship utilization rates in the first half of above 90 percent, but that was very difficult to maintain because the idle fleet was growing by the week.“There will be some people left standing when supply and demand is rebalanced and it’s about being one of those people,” he said. “That is also the answer to why there is not more scrapping. People are trying to survive. If I can avoid scrapping, I will, and if another has to do it, great for me.”Robbert van Trooijen, CEO of Maersk Line Asia Pacific, also had supply ahead of demand in 2017. “Part of the disruption in 2015 was the unpredictability in supply and demand, but we are forecasting that the capacity growth in 2017 will be more stable than it was in 2015, as will the demand,” he said.Niklas Holck, managing director of Costamare Shipping Company, said realigning supply and demand was the way to bring down costs, but he believed shipping had a long way to go before those problems would be tackled.“I think we are in for a few years of pain and instead of hoping things will improve we need to assume they will not,” he said. “If there is oversupply in one segment you will have oversupply in all segments around it as ships cascade down.” Solutions appear to be in short supply, but the survival of carriers depends on finding a far better balance between supply and demand that will bring back profitability. "Unless this industry is profitable, disruption is unavoidable in the supply chain," Van Trooijen said. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@ihsmarkit.com and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler .

Container lines

Overcapacity expected to plague container lines for years

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Inland water transport offers a lower-emission alternative routing for out-of-gauge cargoes, with cost-efficiency, lower energy consumption, and fewer accidents among other advantages.</div>

Inland water transport offers a lower-emission alternative routing for out-of-gauge cargoes, with cost-efficiency, lower energy consumption, and fewer accidents among other advantages.

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<div class="phx-topic">As demand grows for infrastructure projects including data centers, power plants and mining facilities, inland waterways are emerging as a greener and more efficient alternative for breakbulk and project cargo shippers. Hans Vermij, port hinterland logistics professional for international consultancy Haskoning, told the Journal of Commerce that project cargo is well positioned to expand the role of inland waterways for transport, especially when it comes to moving cargo for energy, mining and construction projects. Along with production of bulk raw materials that require inland water access to ship large volumes, mining companies also transport oversized project cargo such as mining or port handling equipment. “Transport by road [faces] severe restrictions regarding the dimensions of the load,” Vermij said. Vermij cited the Rhine River as a key inland route for regularly transporting project cargo across parts of Europe. The Rhine runs from the Alps in Switzerland to the North Sea in the Netherlands and is regularly used to ship machinery, mining equipment and transport vehicles. “As equipment becomes more specialized and the motorway networks in Western Europe are more and more congested, we expect more shipments of project cargo by inland water,” Vermij said. Sustainability, cost-efficiency, lower energy consumption, and fewer accidents are among the advantages of inland water transport, Vermij said. “However, there are still many cases where these advantages are unexplored or need justification to be demonstrated to convince shippers and cargo owners,” he said. <h3>Inland transport supports mining </h3>In South America, increased mining activity necessitated a landmark heavy-lift operation and inland transport by multipurpose vessel (MPV) operator AAL Shipping in December. In its most complex engineering operation to date, AAL transported a fleet of 16 bulk-commodity transport barges on a single heavy-lift vessel from Brazil to Uruguay. According to AAL, the barges will enable South American mining shipments via inland waterways and will be deployed to transport iron and manganese ore for export over 1,500 miles along the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway from Brazil to Uruguay. “We’re seeing growing interest in inland waterways as part of mining and bulk supply chains in South America,” Eugene Nutovych, senior chartering manager for AAL Americas, told the Journal of Commerce. Considered southern South America’s equivalent of the US’ Mississippi River, the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway links Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina, and Uruguay with the Atlantic Ocean. Nutovych said the use of inland waterways delivers benefits beyond logistics. “Economically it supports industrial activity in Brazil – including the reopening of the Enseada Shipyard in Bahia – and stimulates employment and growth in mining regions and along the waterway corridor,” he said. For mining companies, inland waterway transport can provide greater carrying capacity, reduce logistics costs, and accelerate product flow to market by scaling cargo movement. “It also supports a shift away from road-heavy transportation toward more efficient waterborne solutions, aligning with the broader push for cleaner, more sustainable bulk movement,” Nutovych said. The fleet of barges is expected to increase capacity for more eco-efficient water-bound transport while elevating Brazil’s presence in the global commodities market. Nutovych said AAL anticipates more operations of this kind, particularly as inland corridors develop. According to the Rosario Board of Trade, the large-scale mining development projected in the Cuyo and Northwest Argentine regions will likely require river transport via the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway of processed lithium, copper, silver, gold, zinc, and lead — which often ship as breakbulk cargo — for export, along with the transport of equipment to support production. <h3>Global expansions take shape </h3>Investments in global inland waterways range from targeted projects in the US to massive expansions in Asia and Europe. In the US, inland waterway infrastructure has been expanding in recent months to support supply chains, critical infrastructure, and maritime workforce development. In July, the US Department of Transportation added 848 new miles of navigable waterways to the US Marine Highway Program. The network now covers 27,139 miles across 35 designated routes. On Feb. 5, the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma and the inland ports of Benton, Pasco and Walla Walla in Washington signed an agreement to develop an inland logistics hub in the southeastern part of the state. Along with leveraging railroads and major highways with connections to coastal ports, the hub will rely on the region’s Columbia-Snake River system, which stretches from British Columbia, Canada, to the Pacific Ocean in Oregon, and through Washington, Idaho, and Wyoming. One objective of the hub is to ease truck congestion in the Puget Sound metro area and improve supply chain efficiency. The NWSA has been implementing a growth plan since 2020 that includes infrastructure expansion and intermodal enhancements to extend the gateway’s reach into the US interior. In Europe, work is under way on the 66-mile Seine-Nord Europe Canal, touted as Europe’s answer to the Suez Canal and France’s first new waterway to be built since the 1970s. The $6 billion canal will allow super barges weighing up to 4,400 tons — the equivalent of 400 trucks of cargo — to travel between France, Belgium and the Netherlands. David Edwards-May, consultant, publisher and former president of UK nonprofit Inland Waterways International (IWI), told the Journal of Commerce that the canal could serve as a key route for breakbulk and project cargo while helping shift oversized freight off European roadways. “That means you’ve got one-fifth of France — the whole Paris region down to Normandy — that will henceforth be linked to the Rhine (River),” May said. In southern China, construction is nearing completion on the 82-mile Pinglu Canal, one of the world’s largest canal construction projects and the country’s first river-to-sea canal to be built since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. The $10 billion canal will cross mountains and plains to connect China’s inland waterways with the South China Sea. The canal is set to open to navigation by the end of 2026. The Pinglu Canal project marks the beginning of China’s larger overall push to expand inland shipping, as the country plans to establish a 15,500-mile network of inland waterways by 2035. “The bet the Chinese are making is that the temporary upheaval involved with developing new waterways for modern inland water transport will be compensated by the long-term benefits of a lower carbon imprint,” May said. <h3>Taking weight off roads </h3>In the UK, inland waterways, particularly the Manchester Ship Channel, are playing an increasing role in reducing road congestion by moving heavy and oversized cargo to waterways. Jamie Gray, senior project director for Haskoning, cited the 2024 transport of a large hydrogen-powered furnace from India to the Port of Liverpool. UK port operator Peel Ports transferred the furnace to a barge and moved the cargo via the Manchester Ship Canal to reduce road miles and public disruption. Gray said Peel Ports is investing heavily in warehousing and logistics hubs along its waterways. “The aim is to process goods closer to the final destination, and thus lower carbon emissions,” he said. May said inland waterway barges will eventually be adapted to run on electric propulsion, making them less reliant on fossil fuels. “Inland water transport could evolve to being carbon-neutral much more quickly than road transport,” he said. Another emerging technology is AI-powered self-steering barges, which could help lower personnel costs and is already being tested in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. “Obviously a lot of caution is required in proceeding on that basis, but it is a trend that I think clearly is on the way and will help to rationalize that mode of transport,” May said. In any case, May said inland transport is able to maintain a low profile, not only because it produces less noise pollution than trucks, but also because it means fewer oversized shipments taking up space on the road. “It is so incredibly discreet,” he said. “People are not even really aware of the service that is rendered to the economy.” Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at <a href="mailto:autumn@autumngiusti.com">autumn@autumngiusti.com.</a></div>

As demand grows for infrastructure projects including data centers, power plants and mining facilities, inland waterways are emerging as a greener and more efficient alternative for breakbulk and project cargo shippers. Hans Vermij, port hinterland logistics professional for international consultancy Haskoning, told the Journal of Commerce that project cargo is well positioned to expand the role of inland waterways for transport, especially when it comes to moving cargo for energy, mining and construction projects. Along with production of bulk raw materials that require inland water access to ship large volumes, mining companies also transport oversized project cargo such as mining or port handling equipment. “Transport by road [faces] severe restrictions regarding the dimensions of the load,” Vermij said. Vermij cited the Rhine River as a key inland route for regularly transporting project cargo across parts of Europe. The Rhine runs from the Alps in Switzerland to the North Sea in the Netherlands and is regularly used to ship machinery, mining equipment and transport vehicles. “As equipment becomes more specialized and the motorway networks in Western Europe are more and more congested, we expect more shipments of project cargo by inland water,” Vermij said. Sustainability, cost-efficiency, lower energy consumption, and fewer accidents are among the advantages of inland water transport, Vermij said. “However, there are still many cases where these advantages are unexplored or need justification to be demonstrated to convince shippers and cargo owners,” he said. Inland transport supports mining In South America, increased mining activity necessitated a landmark heavy-lift operation and inland transport by multipurpose vessel (MPV) operator AAL Shipping in December. In its most complex engineering operation to date, AAL transported a fleet of 16 bulk-commodity transport barges on a single heavy-lift vessel from Brazil to Uruguay. According to AAL, the barges will enable South American mining shipments via inland waterways and will be deployed to transport iron and manganese ore for export over 1,500 miles along the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway from Brazil to Uruguay. “We’re seeing growing interest in inland waterways as part of mining and bulk supply chains in South America,” Eugene Nutovych, senior chartering manager for AAL Americas, told the Journal of Commerce. Considered southern South America’s equivalent of the US’ Mississippi River, the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway links Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina, and Uruguay with the Atlantic Ocean. Nutovych said the use of inland waterways delivers benefits beyond logistics. “Economically it supports industrial activity in Brazil – including the reopening of the Enseada Shipyard in Bahia – and stimulates employment and growth in mining regions and along the waterway corridor,” he said. For mining companies, inland waterway transport can provide greater carrying capacity, reduce logistics costs, and accelerate product flow to market by scaling cargo movement. “It also supports a shift away from road-heavy transportation toward more efficient waterborne solutions, aligning with the broader push for cleaner, more sustainable bulk movement,” Nutovych said. The fleet of barges is expected to increase capacity for more eco-efficient water-bound transport while elevating Brazil’s presence in the global commodities market. Nutovych said AAL anticipates more operations of this kind, particularly as inland corridors develop. According to the Rosario Board of Trade, the large-scale mining development projected in the Cuyo and Northwest Argentine regions will likely require river transport via the Paraguay-Paraná Waterway of processed lithium, copper, silver, gold, zinc, and lead — which often ship as breakbulk cargo — for export, along with the transport of equipment to support production. Global expansions take shape Investments in global inland waterways range from targeted projects in the US to massive expansions in Asia and Europe. In the US, inland waterway infrastructure has been expanding in recent months to support supply chains, critical infrastructure, and maritime workforce development. In July, the US Department of Transportation added 848 new miles of navigable waterways to the US Marine Highway Program. The network now covers 27,139 miles across 35 designated routes. On Feb. 5, the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma and the inland ports of Benton, Pasco and Walla Walla in Washington signed an agreement to develop an inland logistics hub in the southeastern part of the state. Along with leveraging railroads and major highways with connections to coastal ports, the hub will rely on the region’s Columbia-Snake River system, which stretches from British Columbia, Canada, to the Pacific Ocean in Oregon, and through Washington, Idaho, and Wyoming. One objective of the hub is to ease truck congestion in the Puget Sound metro area and improve supply chain efficiency. The NWSA has been implementing a growth plan since 2020 that includes infrastructure expansion and intermodal enhancements to extend the gateway’s reach into the US interior. In Europe, work is under way on the 66-mile Seine-Nord Europe Canal, touted as Europe’s answer to the Suez Canal and France’s first new waterway to be built since the 1970s. The $6 billion canal will allow super barges weighing up to 4,400 tons — the equivalent of 400 trucks of cargo — to travel between France, Belgium and the Netherlands. David Edwards-May, consultant, publisher and former president of UK nonprofit Inland Waterways International (IWI), told the Journal of Commerce that the canal could serve as a key route for breakbulk and project cargo while helping shift oversized freight off European roadways. “That means you’ve got one-fifth of France — the whole Paris region down to Normandy — that will henceforth be linked to the Rhine (River),” May said. In southern China, construction is nearing completion on the 82-mile Pinglu Canal, one of the world’s largest canal construction projects and the country’s first river-to-sea canal to be built since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. The $10 billion canal will cross mountains and plains to connect China’s inland waterways with the South China Sea. The canal is set to open to navigation by the end of 2026. The Pinglu Canal project marks the beginning of China’s larger overall push to expand inland shipping, as the country plans to establish a 15,500-mile network of inland waterways by 2035. “The bet the Chinese are making is that the temporary upheaval involved with developing new waterways for modern inland water transport will be compensated by the long-term benefits of a lower carbon imprint,” May said. Taking weight off roads In the UK, inland waterways, particularly the Manchester Ship Channel, are playing an increasing role in reducing road congestion by moving heavy and oversized cargo to waterways. Jamie Gray, senior project director for Haskoning, cited the 2024 transport of a large hydrogen-powered furnace from India to the Port of Liverpool. UK port operator Peel Ports transferred the furnace to a barge and moved the cargo via the Manchester Ship Canal to reduce road miles and public disruption. Gray said Peel Ports is investing heavily in warehousing and logistics hubs along its waterways. “The aim is to process goods closer to the final destination, and thus lower carbon emissions,” he said. May said inland waterway barges will eventually be adapted to run on electric propulsion, making them less reliant on fossil fuels. “Inland water transport could evolve to being carbon-neutral much more quickly than road transport,” he said. Another emerging technology is AI-powered self-steering barges, which could help lower personnel costs and is already being tested in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. “Obviously a lot of caution is required in proceeding on that basis, but it is a trend that I think clearly is on the way and will help to rationalize that mode of transport,” May said. In any case, May said inland transport is able to maintain a low profile, not only because it produces less noise pollution than trucks, but also because it means fewer oversized shipments taking up space on the road. “It is so incredibly discreet,” he said. “People are not even really aware of the service that is rendered to the economy.” Contact Autumn Cafiero Giusti at autumn@autumngiusti.com.

Breakbulk carriers

Energy projects

Heavy-haul transport

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Maritime

Shippers look inland to move swelling project cargo demand

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The digital trade body argues that online sellers outside the EU were able to scale rapidly by exploiting gaps in customs and regulatory enforcement that European businesses could not legally replicate.</div>

The digital trade body argues that online sellers outside the EU were able to scale rapidly by exploiting gaps in customs and regulatory enforcement that European businesses could not legally replicate.

<div class="phx-topic">A Polish digital trade group has warned that Chinese online platforms were distorting competition across the European Union using “unequal rules” to reshape the e-commerce market. The Chamber of Digital Economy in Poland argued in a report prepared with KPMG that non-EU sellers were scaling rapidly by exploiting gaps in customs and regulatory enforcement that European businesses could not legally replicate. “This is not a debate about protectionism,” Patrycja Sass-Staniszewska, president of the Chamber of Digital Economy, said in a statement. “Polish companies compete on price, service and innovation every day. What they cannot compete with are business models built on regulatory loopholes and the absence of effective enforcement.” The report said Chinese platforms now account for 6% to 11% of Poland’s $42 billion e-commerce market, with strong growth in the electronics and household goods sectors where sustained price dumping risks hollowing out domestic production and investment capacity. The threat to businesses extends across Europe, the Polish group warned, saying that without intervention, EU-based companies will struggle to scale, invest and compete globally. Regulatory clampdowns on e-commerce have profound implications for air freight, as evidenced by the US’ removal of the de minimis exemption from duties for low-value goods that went into force last year. Amid a growing outcry across Europe, the European Union will impose a similar regulatory clampdown from mid-2026. The European Commission has adopted measures to remove the €150 ($177) duty-free exemption for low-value goods, targeting a surge in e-commerce imports from China. In 2024, the European Commission estimated that 4.6 billion parcels with a value not exceeding €150 crossed the EU border, twice the number of parcels from the previous year. The EU de minimis exemption not only allows importers of low-value goods to avoid paying duties, but also removes the need for importers to submit a standard customs declaration. A temporary €3 ($3.50) import duty per item is expected to be applied by the European Commission from July 2026 with a full reform of measures scheduled for 2028. <h3>Hollowing out domestic production </h3>Data from rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows the removal of the US’ de minimis exemption for Chinese imports last May led to a sharp decline in e-commerce on the trans-Pacific that has extended into 2026. China-Europe low-value exports are also slowing as regulatory scrutiny intensifies. For instance, France in November suspended access to Shein’s online platform for three months after discovering illegal items on sale, while it has intensified customs inspections of e-commerce imports. Data from Xeneta shows China-US e-commerce exports were down more than 50% for a third consecutive month in December and fell 28% for the full year. Growth in China-Europe e-commerce volume slowed to 8% in December compared to a 54% growth rate in the first 11 months of 2025, but when excluding Russia, volume to Europe fell 23% for the year. Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, said after three months of steadily slowing e-commerce demand from China, it appears obvious that the slowdown has now become a trend. “If it remains flat or declines further, it will certainly affect many organization’s growth plans, including those with commitments to freighter conversions that will be relying on the high level of e-commerce demand we have seen in recent years,” Van de Wouw said in a market update Friday. Xeneta estimated that the air cargo market relies on e-commerce for up to 25% of its total annual volumes globally. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A Polish digital trade group has warned that Chinese online platforms were distorting competition across the European Union using “unequal rules” to reshape the e-commerce market. The Chamber of Digital Economy in Poland argued in a report prepared with KPMG that non-EU sellers were scaling rapidly by exploiting gaps in customs and regulatory enforcement that European businesses could not legally replicate. “This is not a debate about protectionism,” Patrycja Sass-Staniszewska, president of the Chamber of Digital Economy, said in a statement. “Polish companies compete on price, service and innovation every day. What they cannot compete with are business models built on regulatory loopholes and the absence of effective enforcement.” The report said Chinese platforms now account for 6% to 11% of Poland’s $42 billion e-commerce market, with strong growth in the electronics and household goods sectors where sustained price dumping risks hollowing out domestic production and investment capacity. The threat to businesses extends across Europe, the Polish group warned, saying that without intervention, EU-based companies will struggle to scale, invest and compete globally. Regulatory clampdowns on e-commerce have profound implications for air freight, as evidenced by the US’ removal of the de minimis exemption from duties for low-value goods that went into force last year. Amid a growing outcry across Europe, the European Union will impose a similar regulatory clampdown from mid-2026. The European Commission has adopted measures to remove the €150 ($177) duty-free exemption for low-value goods, targeting a surge in e-commerce imports from China. In 2024, the European Commission estimated that 4.6 billion parcels with a value not exceeding €150 crossed the EU border, twice the number of parcels from the previous year. The EU de minimis exemption not only allows importers of low-value goods to avoid paying duties, but also removes the need for importers to submit a standard customs declaration. A temporary €3 ($3.50) import duty per item is expected to be applied by the European Commission from July 2026 with a full reform of measures scheduled for 2028. Hollowing out domestic production Data from rate benchmarking platform Xeneta shows the removal of the US’ de minimis exemption for Chinese imports last May led to a sharp decline in e-commerce on the trans-Pacific that has extended into 2026. China-Europe low-value exports are also slowing as regulatory scrutiny intensifies. For instance, France in November suspended access to Shein’s online platform for three months after discovering illegal items on sale, while it has intensified customs inspections of e-commerce imports. Data from Xeneta shows China-US e-commerce exports were down more than 50% for a third consecutive month in December and fell 28% for the full year. Growth in China-Europe e-commerce volume slowed to 8% in December compared to a 54% growth rate in the first 11 months of 2025, but when excluding Russia, volume to Europe fell 23% for the year. Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, said after three months of steadily slowing e-commerce demand from China, it appears obvious that the slowdown has now become a trend. “If it remains flat or declines further, it will certainly affect many organization’s growth plans, including those with commitments to freighter conversions that will be relying on the high level of e-commerce demand we have seen in recent years,” Van de Wouw said in a market update Friday. Xeneta estimated that the air cargo market relies on e-commerce for up to 25% of its total annual volumes globally. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Asia-Europe

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Polish trade group hits out at ‘unequal rules’ for Chinese e-commerce platforms

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The move to split Logistics and Services into three product segments reflects the sensitivities around a division that underpins the carrier’s integrated end-to-end strategy launched in 2017.</div>

The move to split Logistics and Services into three product segments reflects the sensitivities around a division that underpins the carrier’s integrated end-to-end strategy launched in 2017.

<div class="phx-topic">Maersk will split its Logistics and Services unit into three individual product segments as the division continues to frustrate management efforts to reach the 6% operating margin target set almost five years ago. While the segment’s 4.8% earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin in 2025 was an improvement on the 3.6% reported the previous year, it is not far above the 4.2% margin recorded in 2021 when the target was set. "We are proud of the progress we have made but are (neither) complacent or satisfied with where we are, and improving both our results and growth rates in logistics will remain a priority in 2026,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said during an earnings call after <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/gemini-benefits-face-looming-challenge-from-oversupplied-market-maersk-ceo-6164887">the carrier announced its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results</a> Thursday. With the EBIT margin showing only incremental growth, Clerc outlined plans to transform the Logistics and Services segment to drive more value for customers following feedback from the market. “It will increase comparability and transparency to allow you to better benchmark our performance with peers,” Clerc told analysts on the earnings call. The transformation reflects the sensitivities around a division that underpins the carrier’s integrated end-to-end strategy launched in 2017. Maersk wants to attract a greater share of shipper-direct volume with the aim of providing end-to-end control of customers’ cargo. It is a model <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/tpm24-industry-veteran-sees-little-value-in-ocean-carriers-integrating-logistics-services-5241059">that has drawn criticism from global forwarders</a> who regard their asset-light approach as better-suited to the complexities of global trade. “Our priority in 2026 is to continue to improve where we have fallen short in Logistics and Services,” Clerc insisted. <h3>Division split into three new segments </h3>In an organizational change that will take effect on April 1, the Logistics and Services business will be split into three new product segments: landside, forwarding and solutions, with each segments comprising its own set of products. Landside will comprise local and regional products linked to inland transportation: drayage in and out of terminals, ground freight in North America offering mainly expedited less-than-container-load (LCL) road transport, depots, and custom services to assist customers with declarations, tariffs and other regulatory matters. Forwarding will comprise global forwarding and ancillary products such as air freight, LCL for ocean, project logistics and insurance. Solutions will handle supply chain management, e-commerce and warehousing and distribution. While still short of the 6% EBIT margin target, the Logistics and Services segment was able to grow its business in 2025 while broadening its network footprint in strategic locations that should position the portfolio for long-term growth. Full-year revenue was up 1.3% year over year at $15.1 billion and EBIT grew 35% to $728 million. First-mile volume in the logistics segment was up almost 4% year over year at just over 7 million FEUs, while air freight volume was down 2.7% at 318,000 metric tons. “While the (logistics) business is by far not where we want it to be in terms of growth and profitability, 2025 has moved us closer,” Clerc said. “Our priority is to accelerate margin improvement and push harder on growth wherever it makes sense, which we define as the many parts of the portfolio delivering high margins and where higher volumes will increase network utilization and thus, translate also in better margins,” he noted. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Maersk will split its Logistics and Services unit into three individual product segments as the division continues to frustrate management efforts to reach the 6% operating margin target set almost five years ago. While the segment’s 4.8% earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) margin in 2025 was an improvement on the 3.6% reported the previous year, it is not far above the 4.2% margin recorded in 2021 when the target was set. "We are proud of the progress we have made but are (neither) complacent or satisfied with where we are, and improving both our results and growth rates in logistics will remain a priority in 2026,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc said during an earnings call after the carrier announced its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results Thursday. With the EBIT margin showing only incremental growth, Clerc outlined plans to transform the Logistics and Services segment to drive more value for customers following feedback from the market. “It will increase comparability and transparency to allow you to better benchmark our performance with peers,” Clerc told analysts on the earnings call. The transformation reflects the sensitivities around a division that underpins the carrier’s integrated end-to-end strategy launched in 2017. Maersk wants to attract a greater share of shipper-direct volume with the aim of providing end-to-end control of customers’ cargo. It is a model that has drawn criticism from global forwarders who regard their asset-light approach as better-suited to the complexities of global trade. “Our priority in 2026 is to continue to improve where we have fallen short in Logistics and Services,” Clerc insisted. Division split into three new segments In an organizational change that will take effect on April 1, the Logistics and Services business will be split into three new product segments: landside, forwarding and solutions, with each segments comprising its own set of products. Landside will comprise local and regional products linked to inland transportation: drayage in and out of terminals, ground freight in North America offering mainly expedited less-than-container-load (LCL) road transport, depots, and custom services to assist customers with declarations, tariffs and other regulatory matters. Forwarding will comprise global forwarding and ancillary products such as air freight, LCL for ocean, project logistics and insurance. Solutions will handle supply chain management, e-commerce and warehousing and distribution. While still short of the 6% EBIT margin target, the Logistics and Services segment was able to grow its business in 2025 while broadening its network footprint in strategic locations that should position the portfolio for long-term growth. Full-year revenue was up 1.3% year over year at $15.1 billion and EBIT grew 35% to $728 million. First-mile volume in the logistics segment was up almost 4% year over year at just over 7 million FEUs, while air freight volume was down 2.7% at 318,000 metric tons. “While the (logistics) business is by far not where we want it to be in terms of growth and profitability, 2025 has moved us closer,” Clerc said. “Our priority is to accelerate margin improvement and push harder on growth wherever it makes sense, which we define as the many parts of the portfolio delivering high margins and where higher volumes will increase network utilization and thus, translate also in better margins,” he noted. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Port News

Forwarding

Drayage

Container Shipping News

Maersk to reorganize logistics segment as profit margins fall short again

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Marine terminals are using the new longshore contract to tackle one of the port’s recurring problems, with the union’s support, as they look to boost efficiency at the biggest port along the US East Coast. </div>

Marine terminals are using the new longshore contract to tackle one of the port’s recurring problems, with the union’s support, as they look to boost efficiency at the biggest port along the US East Coast.

<div class="phx-topic">Marine terminals at the Port of New York and New Jersey have made the first — albeit very small — cuts of chronically absent employees under terms outlined in the new local longshore contract, one of the main concessions employers won under the deal to boost productivity at the port. John Nardi, president of the Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey, which represents maritime employers at the port, said this week five local longshore workers were fired in January under the new unexcused absentee policy his group negotiated in the local contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). The cuts are miniscule in relation to the port’s 4,400 ILA workers. But Nardi said the new policy’s message has had an impact by cutting absenteeism at the port in half since the new contract, something that employers have “fought for years to improve.” “We worked very closely with the ILA to fix some longstanding challenges,” Nardi said. “We had the full support of the ILA at the highest level. We’re not fooling around on this.” The ILA did not respond to a request for comment from the Journal of Commerce. The local contract was officially ratified last year as part of the master contract between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, with the union securing a 62% increase in its top wage tier through 2030. The first year of that wage increase, along with a higher entry-level wage and manning changes, have resulted in a nearly 20% increase in labor costs for marine terminals since March 2025, according to a source familiar with the deal’s economics. <h3>Monday popular for absenteeism </h3>The master contract required all East and Gulf coast ports to draw up absentee policies. But absenteeism is a particular problem for the NY-NJ port relative to other East Coast ports, where longshore workers use hiring halls or telephonic dispatch to take any daily jobs listed as available at any of a port’s various facilities. NY-NJ maritime employers rely on specific longshore workers due to the different layout and equipment at each of its six container terminals. Marine terminals put out orders the day prior for how many longshore workers they need. ILA members at those terminals can then accept the day’s work, or it gets offered to someone else. Absenteeism can be particularly acute on Mondays. An ILA member may have worked at a time-and-half wage rate on the weekend but not show up for a shift at a regular time wage rate on Monday, despite having committed to that day’s work. “You can take a couple of days off for unanticipated reasons, but if you leave yourself in the system and accept a job, you need to take that job,” Nardi said. “You can’t just not show up without repercussions.” Under the new policy, longshore workers are allowed three days of unexcused absences each month. But unexcused absences following a weekend or a holiday count as one-and-half of those days, as do consecutive days of unexcused absences. The disciplinary escalation to firing is shortened under the new contract from seven unexcused absences to four. While longshore workers had a pass until the second unexcused absence for a warning letter, the first unexcused absence now results in a warning letter. Under the old contract, longshore workers were relegated to lower-paying, dispatched jobs at the cruise and roll-on/roll-off terminals for several periods of time before a possible termination. But the new contract only offers one relegation period, followed by a two-week suspension and then firing. The new contract also has a stricter policy around longshore employees who unexpectedly leave work during their shift. <h3>Container move clause </h3>The new, local NY-NJ contract also has requirements that each longshore gang improve productivity by one container move each year, otherwise they lose seniority to another more productive gang. The number of longshore workers hired as standby relief went up under the new contract from three workers for every two jobs to two workers for every one job. However, Nardi said the additional relief has to be cost-neutral for employers and is contingent on productivity goals. Close to a year under the new contract, Nardi said the new absenteeism policy, along with the productivity measures, have resulted in a 7% increase in productivity at the port’s biggest terminals. He added that improved labor productivity aligns with the ILA’s goal of halting port automation. During contract negotiations, ILA President Harold Daggett also <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ila-usmx-remain-at-odds-over-dockworker-wage-increases-daggett-5215515">appealed to the union’s rank-and-file</a> to improve their productivity due to the potential for job loss from automation. “If [the ILA is] focused on stemming the tide of automation, then people need to show up,” Nardi said. Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Marine terminals at the Port of New York and New Jersey have made the first — albeit very small — cuts of chronically absent employees under terms outlined in the new local longshore contract, one of the main concessions employers won under the deal to boost productivity at the port. John Nardi, president of the Shipping Association of New York and New Jersey, which represents maritime employers at the port, said this week five local longshore workers were fired in January under the new unexcused absentee policy his group negotiated in the local contract with the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). The cuts are miniscule in relation to the port’s 4,400 ILA workers. But Nardi said the new policy’s message has had an impact by cutting absenteeism at the port in half since the new contract, something that employers have “fought for years to improve.” “We worked very closely with the ILA to fix some longstanding challenges,” Nardi said. “We had the full support of the ILA at the highest level. We’re not fooling around on this.” The ILA did not respond to a request for comment from the Journal of Commerce. The local contract was officially ratified last year as part of the master contract between the ILA and the United States Maritime Alliance, with the union securing a 62% increase in its top wage tier through 2030. The first year of that wage increase, along with a higher entry-level wage and manning changes, have resulted in a nearly 20% increase in labor costs for marine terminals since March 2025, according to a source familiar with the deal’s economics. Monday popular for absenteeism The master contract required all East and Gulf coast ports to draw up absentee policies. But absenteeism is a particular problem for the NY-NJ port relative to other East Coast ports, where longshore workers use hiring halls or telephonic dispatch to take any daily jobs listed as available at any of a port’s various facilities. NY-NJ maritime employers rely on specific longshore workers due to the different layout and equipment at each of its six container terminals. Marine terminals put out orders the day prior for how many longshore workers they need. ILA members at those terminals can then accept the day’s work, or it gets offered to someone else. Absenteeism can be particularly acute on Mondays. An ILA member may have worked at a time-and-half wage rate on the weekend but not show up for a shift at a regular time wage rate on Monday, despite having committed to that day’s work. “You can take a couple of days off for unanticipated reasons, but if you leave yourself in the system and accept a job, you need to take that job,” Nardi said. “You can’t just not show up without repercussions.” Under the new policy, longshore workers are allowed three days of unexcused absences each month. But unexcused absences following a weekend or a holiday count as one-and-half of those days, as do consecutive days of unexcused absences. The disciplinary escalation to firing is shortened under the new contract from seven unexcused absences to four. While longshore workers had a pass until the second unexcused absence for a warning letter, the first unexcused absence now results in a warning letter. Under the old contract, longshore workers were relegated to lower-paying, dispatched jobs at the cruise and roll-on/roll-off terminals for several periods of time before a possible termination. But the new contract only offers one relegation period, followed by a two-week suspension and then firing. The new contract also has a stricter policy around longshore employees who unexpectedly leave work during their shift. Container move clause The new, local NY-NJ contract also has requirements that each longshore gang improve productivity by one container move each year, otherwise they lose seniority to another more productive gang. The number of longshore workers hired as standby relief went up under the new contract from three workers for every two jobs to two workers for every one job. However, Nardi said the additional relief has to be cost-neutral for employers and is contingent on productivity goals. Close to a year under the new contract, Nardi said the new absenteeism policy, along with the productivity measures, have resulted in a 7% increase in productivity at the port’s biggest terminals. He added that improved labor productivity aligns with the ILA’s goal of halting port automation. During contract negotiations, ILA President Harold Daggett also appealed to the union’s rank-and-file to improve their productivity due to the potential for job loss from automation. “If [the ILA is] focused on stemming the tide of automation, then people need to show up,” Nardi said. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

North American ports

Longshore labor

NY-NJ port’s stricter absentee policy results in first longshore cuts 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The shock in spot market rates after the recent snowstorm and frigid temperatures has rivaled the severe winter weather of February 2021, which kickstarted an entire year of rising rates for shippers.</div>

The shock in spot market rates after the recent snowstorm and frigid temperatures has rivaled the severe winter weather of February 2021, which kickstarted an entire year of rising rates for shippers.

<div class="phx-topic">Spot truckload rates jumped in the days following a snowstorm that disrupted large portions of the US two weeks ago, driving a 40% week-over-week increase in spot market load posts, according to DAT Freight &amp; Analytics. Dry-van spot rates climbed 11 cents after snow and ice blanketed much of the eastern US, the largest seven-day increase in more than three years, DAT said. Spot prices for temperature-controlled capacity jumped 15 cents week over week, as shippers increasingly lean on refrigerated trucks to provide freeze protection during frigid conditions. “This storm stood out because it had an impact that was very similar to February 2021 when key freight routes turned into a skating rink,” Dean Croke, principal analyst for DAT, told the Journal of Commerce. “The only difference right now is that there is much less spot market capacity to absorb the disruption. There is no question in my mind there is less latent capacity, less buffer in the system.” The market reaction to the most recent storm has been more severe than is typically seen following hurricanes. After Hurricane Helene in September 2024, dry-van and temperature-controlled spot market loads increased 17%, while rates rose 4 cents week over week, according to DAT. Following Hurricane Ian in September 2022, dry-van load posts increased 2% and temperature-controlled load posts rose 10% week over week, but rates were largely unchanged. During the February 2021 ice storms, which caused widespread power outages in Texas, spot rates jumped approximately 20 cents during the two weeks afterward and then continued to climb through the remainder of the year. The disruption reset the market with spot rates rising steadily until the freight downturn began in 2022. <h3>Could the 2021 market trajectory repeat in 2026? </h3>Whether the current disruption evolves into a broader shift remains unclear. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing data for January flipped into expansion territory after more than a year of being below the baseline index of 50. Knight-Swift Transportation said <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/shippers-will-see-rates-climb-as-truckload-capacity-tightens-knight-swift-6156695">on its earnings call last month</a> that federal enforcement actions tied to non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) and English-language proficiency requirements are prompting shippers to rely more heavily on asset-based carriers with company drivers. According to the carrier, that shift could support volume growth and contract rate increases independent of broader economic conditions. Old Dominion Freight Line also said it is <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/odfl-cautiously-optimistic-about-ltl-demand-despite-lackluster-q4-6164259">more optimistic</a> than it was three months ago, citing ISM data and discussions with less-than-truckload shippers as indicators that freight conditions could improve this year. Croke said those signals could point to the end of the freight recession and the emergence of a more carrier-favorable market. “If there is any truth to this non-domiciled CDL and English language proficiency stuff, it’s going to bite us even harder when produce season begins in the spring,” he said. “If we see an absolute roller coaster for reefer [temperature-controlled trucks], then it trickles down to dry-van, and I think the 2021 [storm] comparison becomes more valid for the rest of this year.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="13499d91-a088-4824-b1c4-db0f2c552702"></dynamic-object></div>Jason Miller, associate professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said he remains skeptical that current conditions will mirror the red-hot carrier market of 2021. “Looking back, 2021 was an unusual year with incredible consumer stimulus,” Miller told the Journal of Commerce. “If housing starts to improve, then there will be an actual recovery in freight volumes taking place and an expansionary pricing cycle sticking.” Permits for new single-family homes were down about 9% year over year on a seasonally adjusted basis as of October, according to the US Census Bureau, reflecting continued weakness in residential construction. Existing home sales were up approximately 1% year over year in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the National Association of Realtors, indicating modest improvement but not a broad housing recovery. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Spot truckload rates jumped in the days following a snowstorm that disrupted large portions of the US two weeks ago, driving a 40% week-over-week increase in spot market load posts, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. Dry-van spot rates climbed 11 cents after snow and ice blanketed much of the eastern US, the largest seven-day increase in more than three years, DAT said. Spot prices for temperature-controlled capacity jumped 15 cents week over week, as shippers increasingly lean on refrigerated trucks to provide freeze protection during frigid conditions. “This storm stood out because it had an impact that was very similar to February 2021 when key freight routes turned into a skating rink,” Dean Croke, principal analyst for DAT, told the Journal of Commerce. “The only difference right now is that there is much less spot market capacity to absorb the disruption. There is no question in my mind there is less latent capacity, less buffer in the system.” The market reaction to the most recent storm has been more severe than is typically seen following hurricanes. After Hurricane Helene in September 2024, dry-van and temperature-controlled spot market loads increased 17%, while rates rose 4 cents week over week, according to DAT. Following Hurricane Ian in September 2022, dry-van load posts increased 2% and temperature-controlled load posts rose 10% week over week, but rates were largely unchanged. During the February 2021 ice storms, which caused widespread power outages in Texas, spot rates jumped approximately 20 cents during the two weeks afterward and then continued to climb through the remainder of the year. The disruption reset the market with spot rates rising steadily until the freight downturn began in 2022. Could the 2021 market trajectory repeat in 2026? Whether the current disruption evolves into a broader shift remains unclear. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing data for January flipped into expansion territory after more than a year of being below the baseline index of 50. Knight-Swift Transportation said on its earnings call last month that federal enforcement actions tied to non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) and English-language proficiency requirements are prompting shippers to rely more heavily on asset-based carriers with company drivers. According to the carrier, that shift could support volume growth and contract rate increases independent of broader economic conditions. Old Dominion Freight Line also said it is more optimistic than it was three months ago, citing ISM data and discussions with less-than-truckload shippers as indicators that freight conditions could improve this year. Croke said those signals could point to the end of the freight recession and the emergence of a more carrier-favorable market. “If there is any truth to this non-domiciled CDL and English language proficiency stuff, it’s going to bite us even harder when produce season begins in the spring,” he said. “If we see an absolute roller coaster for reefer [temperature-controlled trucks], then it trickles down to dry-van, and I think the 2021 [storm] comparison becomes more valid for the rest of this year.” Jason Miller, associate professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, said he remains skeptical that current conditions will mirror the red-hot carrier market of 2021. “Looking back, 2021 was an unusual year with incredible consumer stimulus,” Miller told the Journal of Commerce. “If housing starts to improve, then there will be an actual recovery in freight volumes taking place and an expansionary pricing cycle sticking.” Permits for new single-family homes were down about 9% year over year on a seasonally adjusted basis as of October, according to the US Census Bureau, reflecting continued weakness in residential construction. Existing home sales were up approximately 1% year over year in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the National Association of Realtors, indicating modest improvement but not a broad housing recovery. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

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Disruptive winter weather in US jolts spot truck rates to big gains

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