<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Those of us who regularly read shipping industry reports from around the world must endure a mix of emotions when reading the news of the day. Some days, we smile. Others, we may shed a tear. And then there the days of bewilderment. And that was my reaction when reading on a late-summer day in August that truckers had shut down the Port of Oakland over alleged issues with the port and terminal operators. </div>

Those of us who regularly read shipping industry reports from around the world must endure a mix of emotions when reading the news of the day. Some days, we smile. Others, we may shed a tear. And then there the days of bewilderment. And that was my reaction when reading on a late-summer day in August that truckers had shut down the Port of Oakland over alleged issues with the port and terminal operators.

<div>Those of us who regularly read shipping industry reports from around the world must endure a mix of emotions when reading the news of the day. Some days, we smile. Others, we may shed a tear. And then there the days of bewilderment.And that was my reaction when reading on a late-summer day in August that truckers had shut down the Port of Oakland over alleged issues with the port and terminal operators. I can certainly understand the frustration at times with slow turnaround times at terminals, but is shutting down the port a solution to that? Where are those...

Those of us who regularly read shipping industry reports from around the world must endure a mix of emotions when reading the news of the day. Some days, we smile. Others, we may shed a tear. And then there the days of bewilderment. And that was my reaction when reading on a late-summer day in August that truckers had shut down the Port of Oakland over alleged issues with the port and terminal operators. I can certainly understand the frustration at times with slow turnaround times at terminals, but is shutting down the port a solution to that? Where are those with enough common sense to work out the issues without it coming to that? On the brighter side, A.P. Moller-Maersk investors are said to be pleased with the Danish conglomerate’s second quarter results, according to Lloyd’s List. I’m thinking the investors represent a rather small contingent outside of the family trust who own the majority of the stock, which was trading at $8,995 a share, up nearly $200, a day after the company released its financial results. But the second quarter results could be confusing to some: Container freight rates were down 13 percent year-over-year, volumes were up 2 percent and costs were 12 percent lower. Yet net profit increased a whopping 93 percent, from $227 million in the second quarter of 2012 to $439 million this year. Math is funny sometimes, but in this case it’s more interesting than funny. Most of Maersk’s competitors, meanwhile, are reporting losses, with some surprising experts and pundits. It’s a very similar pattern to 2012 — a mixed bag of profits and losses, but fewer with profits so far this year. The difference between those making money and those losing it, as I’ve stated several times in this space over the past two years, is cost. As I’ve also suggested, and as the results demonstrate, maintaining strong rates isn’t easy, especially with today’s market conditions. Double-digit percentage reductions to a price structure will cause problems for any industry, so how does one not only survive but also thrive under those conditions? By focusing on cost reduction and being the low-cost service provider in the industry. Starting in 2006, with the introduction of the 15,000-TEU Emma-class vessels, Maersk has been on a quest to be not only the largest carrier, but also the lowest-cost provider. Those ships, and the other modern and efficient vessels deployed and now being supplemented with 18,000-TEU vessels that are even more efficient, are the cornerstone of the strategy that gets Maersk to the numbers cited above. Other carriers followed, and still others are just catching up. Yang Ming in mid-August was reported to have ordered five 14,000-TEU vessels for delivery in 2016, building on an earlier 10-ship order for delivery in 2015. Two things about this stand in stark contrast to Maersk — and other Top 20 carriers, for that matter. First, Yang Ming was late to the party, behind the Emma-class vessels by nine years. Second, when it did finally join the party, it ordered ships that many would say aren’t as cost-effective as the larger versions seen on the water today. So in comparing the two carriers, one has had a significant cost advantage for an extended period of time, much of which has been through rough financial waters. When the second reacted, it seemed to have been conservative. That’s not to say Yang Ming is wrong. No one will really know for another five to 10 years which companies made the right decisions. It’s also possible that, because of the trades these ships will be deployed in, over the long run, both are right. But for now and the next three years or so, those who acted earlier and acted the boldest will reap the greatest benefits. There’s enough evidence to suggest that one public carrier and perhaps one private carrier will outperform the industry this year and through 2015, and not by a small margin. Getting involved early in the game with bigger vessels and other cost-cutting made a significant difference. That’s what the numbers show, so far, at least. Gary Ferrulli, a 40-year shipping industry veteran, is director ocean product for non-vessel-operating common carrier Ocean World Lines, a subsidiary of Pacer International. Contact him at mrgt4811@mindspring.com . The views expressed here are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of OWL.

Forwarding

Mixed Results, Mixed Emotions

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Data from consultants Trade and Transport Group shows the impact of regulatory changes as  de minimis traffic fell significantly while regular air cargo increased.</div>

Data from consultants Trade and Transport Group shows the impact of regulatory changes as  de minimis traffic fell significantly while regular air cargo increased.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">A fundamental shift in trans-Pacific air freight trade flows since the US eliminated the de minimis exemption for low-value goods in May is becoming clearer, with a decline in China-US traffic replaced by booming imports from Taiwan and Vietnam. Data from consultants Trade and Transport Group shows the impact of the regulatory changes as  de minimis traffic fell significantly while regular air cargo increased. “The decline in China to US traffic has been more than offset, particularly by air freight from Taiwan and Vietnam, and it is mainly linked to computers and parts, as well as industrial equipment,” Frederic Horst, managing director of Trade and Transport Group, told the Journal of Commerce. In the first nine months of the year, US imports of air cargo from China were down 10.1% year over year, Trade and Transport data shows. But imports from Northeast Asia as a whole rose 36.4%, while imports from Southeast Asian origins were up almost 50%.  A deeper dive into the data shows US air cargo imports from Taiwan from January through September jumped almost 91% year over year, imports from Vietnam rose almost 80% and imports from Thailand were up more than 40%. Computers and accessories, industrial equipment and parts; audio, video and optical components; and mobile phones comprised the bulk of the air freight shipments. The trend has also been picked up by Taiwan-based Dimerco Express Group, which has urged shippers to factor the supply chain changes into their 2026 shipment plans. “Following changes to US de minimis rules, some direct China-US e-commerce flows have decreased, but more cargo is now routed via alternative hubs and forward-stocking models, making trade lanes more diversified,” Catherine Chien, chairwoman of Dimerco Express Group, said in a market update.  “Demand for high-tech, AI-related and e-commerce shipments continues to drive growth in air freight from the Asia-Pacific region to North America and Europe,” Chien added. “Shippers that can flex between multiple lanes, multiple modes and multiple origin countries will be better positioned than those relying on a single country or mode.” <h3>US import data distorted by e-commerce </h3>The main driver of inbound air cargo from Asia to the US has been e-commerce, which over the past few years has created a growing gap in US air cargo data. But the removal in May of the de minimis exemption for low-value imports from China, followed by the removal of de minimis rules for all US trading partners in August, has led to a fundamental change in the mix of air cargo. “Regular air freight imports – i.e. consignments greater than $2,000 – are up 16.5% for the first nine months, while overall inbound air cargo traffic (to the US) is down 2.5%,” Horst said. Data from air cargo analyst Rotate shows freighter operators have shifted capacity in Asia to follow the moving export trend. Direct air freight capacity offered from Southeast Asia to North America from May 2 – when the de minimis tariff on China imports was eliminated – through November was up 89% at 102,700 tonnes.  <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="8d7ed0b1-01de-471d-b540-bed610465c9a"></dynamic-object></div>However, the analyst pointed out that much of Vietnam’s air freight trade is shipped indirectly through Asian hubs in mainland China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan, so the actual volume from Southeast Asia to North America is higher. The Freightos Air Index shows China-US rates at a 2025 high exceeding $8/kg this week, higher than last year's $7.30/kg peak, according to a market update from Freightos Tuesday.  The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects global air volume growth of 3.1% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026 despite the impact of the US tariffs on volume flows. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

A fundamental shift in trans-Pacific air freight trade flows since the US eliminated the de minimis exemption for low-value goods in May is becoming clearer, with a decline in China-US traffic replaced by booming imports from Taiwan and Vietnam.  Data from consultants Trade and Transport Group shows the impact of the regulatory changes as  de minimis traffic fell significantly while regular air cargo increased.  “The decline in China to US traffic has been more than offset, particularly by air freight from Taiwan and Vietnam, and it is mainly linked to computers and parts, as well as industrial equipment,” Frederic Horst, managing director of Trade and Transport Group, told the Journal of Commerce.  In the first nine months of the year, US imports of air cargo from China were down 10.1% year over year, Trade and Transport data shows. But imports from Northeast Asia as a whole rose 36.4%, while imports from Southeast Asian origins were up almost 50%.   A deeper dive into the data shows US air cargo imports from Taiwan from January through September jumped almost 91% year over year, imports from Vietnam rose almost 80% and imports from Thailand were up more than 40%. Computers and accessories, industrial equipment and parts; audio, video and optical components; and mobile phones comprised the bulk of the air freight shipments.  The trend has also been picked up by Taiwan-based Dimerco Express Group, which has urged shippers to factor the supply chain changes into their 2026 shipment plans.  “Following changes to US de minimis rules, some direct China-US e-commerce flows have decreased, but more cargo is now routed via alternative hubs and forward-stocking models, making trade lanes more diversified,” Catherine Chien, chairwoman of Dimerco Express Group, said in a market update.   “Demand for high-tech, AI-related and e-commerce shipments continues to drive growth in air freight from the Asia-Pacific region to North America and Europe,” Chien added. “Shippers that can flex between multiple lanes, multiple modes and multiple origin countries will be better positioned than those relying on a single country or mode.”  US import data distorted by e-commerce  The main driver of inbound air cargo from Asia to the US has been e-commerce, which over the past few years has created a growing gap in US air cargo data. But the removal in May of the de minimis exemption for low-value imports from China, followed by the removal of de minimis rules for all US trading partners in August, has led to a fundamental change in the mix of air cargo.  “Regular air freight imports – i.e. consignments greater than $2,000 – are up 16.5% for the first nine months, while overall inbound air cargo traffic (to the US) is down 2.5%,” Horst said.  Data from air cargo analyst Rotate shows freighter operators have shifted capacity in Asia to follow the moving export trend. Direct air freight capacity offered from Southeast Asia to North America from May 2 – when the de minimis tariff on China imports was eliminated – through November was up 89% at 102,700 tonnes.   However, the analyst pointed out that much of Vietnam’s air freight trade is shipped indirectly through Asian hubs in mainland China, Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan, so the actual volume from Southeast Asia to North America is higher.  The Freightos Air Index shows China-US rates at a 2025 high exceeding $8/kg this week, higher than last year's $7.30/kg peak, according to a market update from Freightos Tuesday.   The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects global air volume growth of 3.1% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026 despite the impact of the US tariffs on volume flows.  Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com . 

Air Cargo Forwarder News

Air Cargo

Rising US air freight imports from Taiwan, Vietnam offset drop in China trade 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The US Department of Transportation estimates there are about 200,000 holders of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses, most of whom would lose eligibility under a proposed rule that would bar certain immigrants from operating commercial vehicles.</div>

The US Department of Transportation estimates there are about 200,000 holders of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses, most of whom would lose eligibility under a proposed rule that would bar certain immigrants from operating commercial vehicles.

<div class="phx-topic">The trucking industry differs on how much of any impact stricter federal rules on immigrants driving in the US will have, with one side arguing that a crackdown will move the needle on subdued pricing and the other warning that only a demand rebound will end the three-year freight slump. The US Department of Transportation (USDOT) estimates there are about 200,000 holders of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs), most of whom would lose eligibility under a proposed rule that would bar certain immigrants, including asylum seekers, from operating commercial vehicles. No one has confirmed the number in the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA’s) emergency interim rule; states issue CDLs, not the federal government. “There is a lack of clarity on where the 200,000 figure comes from in the first place,” Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management for Michigan State University, told the Journal of Commerce. Under the DOT’s proposed rule, only drivers holding H-2A, H-2B or E-2 visas would be permitted to retain non-domiciled CDLs. But the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has placed the rule on hold indefinitely. Even so, some industry executives argue that enforcement activity — rather than the rule itself — could have a more immediate effect on trucking capacity. Thom Albrecht, chief revenue officer of insurer Reliance Partners, said he believes up to 15% of current US truckload capacity may be tied to illegitimate operations, including cargo theft and carriers operating outside of US rules and regulations. Albrecht emphasized that the figure is an estimate based on publicly available CDL data, not an exact count. “That doesn’t mean we have 15% excess capacity. I would suggest it’s probably 2% to 3%. It would not take a whole lot for the industry to start feeling better,” he said during a webinar last week hosted by Deutsche Bank. “There have been so many bad actors let into this industry over the last few years. That’s the single-biggest deterrent for this industry to get healthy.” Ryan Joyce, CEO of cargo security firm Genlogs, said his company found nearly 1,000 Mexican trucking companies that are legally allowed to cross the border with international freight, but also operating far beyond the permitted zone inside the US. Joyce said those carriers are engaging in cabotage — legally delivering an international load, then illegally hauling a domestic load between two US locations. “The top violator, for example, was observed hundreds of times operating as far north as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New York,” Joyce said on the Deutsche Bank webinar. He also said the non-domiciled CDL problem is tied to cargo theft, with some unsafe carriers shutting down one day, paying cash to obtain a new motor carrier number, and then reopening the next day, often referred to as “chameleon carriers.” Albrecht and Joyce are among those who expect a swift market response as insurers and USDOT increase scrutiny of illegitimate operations. “I follow certain threads of truck drivers online, and there are discussions that a lot of these non-domiciled CDLs coming up for renewal won’t be renewed,” Albrecht said on the webinar. “A lot of them have said that post-Christmas, that’s it for them. That this is the last hurrah.” Others, however, argue that the non-domiciled CDL and cabotage crackdowns will not produce a sudden spike in trucking rates. <h3>Skepticism abounds </h3>In audits conducted of Minnesota and New York, most of the violations cited by USDOT involved otherwise properly issued non-domiciled CDLs in which the license expiration date extended beyond the driver’s employment authorization, rather than wholesale ineligibility. And even when drivers with a valid non-domiciled CDL fail an English-language proficiency exam, many continue operating once highway patrol leaves the scene. Police cannot immobilize the vehicle because it is the driver, not the truck, who is taken out of service. “The driver will just wait a little bit and once the officer leaves, he’ll just drive off as if nothing happened,” said Cliff Bates, former owner of Capital City Trucking, a trucking company that went out of business within the last two years. “Even when the driver is dropped off at the next exit, the minute the patrol leaves, he’s walking back down the highway to the truck again.” While Bates agrees that reckless driving by some non-domiciled CDL holders is a major problem, he questions how quickly the Trump administration can act. “I think they’re going to cut off the spigot for new CDLs, but I question the assumption that this administration will act swiftly with midterms coming in less than a year,” Bates told the Journal of Commerce. He said rapid enforcement could raise rates and, by extension, consumer prices. Still, broader macroeconomic factors may limit how much enforcement alone can shift the market. Slashing capacity does not address weak US manufacturing data that has softened truckload demand, according to Miller. He noted, for example, that single-family building permits have fallen 10% from last year, as of the last update before the US government shutdown, and that fracking activity isn’t going to rebound with crude oil at current prices. “There are also individuals out there with the requisite background who could re-enter the [trucking] industry rather quickly if conditions significantly improve from a pricing standpoint, which would blunt any loss of non-domiciled capacity,” Miller said. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The trucking industry differs on how much of any impact stricter federal rules on immigrants driving in the US will have, with one side arguing that a crackdown will move the needle on subdued pricing and the other warning that only a demand rebound will end the three-year freight slump. The US Department of Transportation (USDOT) estimates there are about 200,000 holders of non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs), most of whom would lose eligibility under a proposed rule that would bar certain immigrants, including asylum seekers, from operating commercial vehicles. No one has confirmed the number in the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA’s) emergency interim rule; states issue CDLs, not the federal government. “There is a lack of clarity on where the 200,000 figure comes from in the first place,” Jason Miller, professor of supply chain management for Michigan State University, told the Journal of Commerce. Under the DOT’s proposed rule, only drivers holding H-2A, H-2B or E-2 visas would be permitted to retain non-domiciled CDLs. But the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has placed the rule on hold indefinitely. Even so, some industry executives argue that enforcement activity — rather than the rule itself — could have a more immediate effect on trucking capacity. Thom Albrecht, chief revenue officer of insurer Reliance Partners, said he believes up to 15% of current US truckload capacity may be tied to illegitimate operations, including cargo theft and carriers operating outside of US rules and regulations. Albrecht emphasized that the figure is an estimate based on publicly available CDL data, not an exact count. “That doesn’t mean we have 15% excess capacity. I would suggest it’s probably 2% to 3%. It would not take a whole lot for the industry to start feeling better,” he said during a webinar last week hosted by Deutsche Bank. “There have been so many bad actors let into this industry over the last few years. That’s the single-biggest deterrent for this industry to get healthy.” Ryan Joyce, CEO of cargo security firm Genlogs, said his company found nearly 1,000 Mexican trucking companies that are legally allowed to cross the border with international freight, but also operating far beyond the permitted zone inside the US. Joyce said those carriers are engaging in cabotage — legally delivering an international load, then illegally hauling a domestic load between two US locations. “The top violator, for example, was observed hundreds of times operating as far north as Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New York,” Joyce said on the Deutsche Bank webinar. He also said the non-domiciled CDL problem is tied to cargo theft, with some unsafe carriers shutting down one day, paying cash to obtain a new motor carrier number, and then reopening the next day, often referred to as “chameleon carriers.” Albrecht and Joyce are among those who expect a swift market response as insurers and USDOT increase scrutiny of illegitimate operations. “I follow certain threads of truck drivers online, and there are discussions that a lot of these non-domiciled CDLs coming up for renewal won’t be renewed,” Albrecht said on the webinar. “A lot of them have said that post-Christmas, that’s it for them. That this is the last hurrah.” Others, however, argue that the non-domiciled CDL and cabotage crackdowns will not produce a sudden spike in trucking rates. Skepticism abounds In audits conducted of Minnesota and New York, most of the violations cited by USDOT involved otherwise properly issued non-domiciled CDLs in which the license expiration date extended beyond the driver’s employment authorization, rather than wholesale ineligibility. And even when drivers with a valid non-domiciled CDL fail an English-language proficiency exam, many continue operating once highway patrol leaves the scene. Police cannot immobilize the vehicle because it is the driver, not the truck, who is taken out of service. “The driver will just wait a little bit and once the officer leaves, he’ll just drive off as if nothing happened,” said Cliff Bates, former owner of Capital City Trucking, a trucking company that went out of business within the last two years. “Even when the driver is dropped off at the next exit, the minute the patrol leaves, he’s walking back down the highway to the truck again.” While Bates agrees that reckless driving by some non-domiciled CDL holders is a major problem, he questions how quickly the Trump administration can act. “I think they’re going to cut off the spigot for new CDLs, but I question the assumption that this administration will act swiftly with midterms coming in less than a year,” Bates told the Journal of Commerce. He said rapid enforcement could raise rates and, by extension, consumer prices. Still, broader macroeconomic factors may limit how much enforcement alone can shift the market. Slashing capacity does not address weak US manufacturing data that has softened truckload demand, according to Miller. He noted, for example, that single-family building permits have fallen 10% from last year, as of the last update before the US government shutdown, and that fracking activity isn’t going to rebound with crude oil at current prices. “There are also individuals out there with the requisite background who could re-enter the [trucking] industry rather quickly if conditions significantly improve from a pricing standpoint, which would blunt any loss of non-domiciled capacity,” Miller said. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Trucking labor

Surface

Impact of non-domiciled CDL enforcement splits US trucking sector

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Although major US gateways have made some progress in promoting data sharing on vessel arrivals, port authorities say more systemic thinking must take place among carriers and their supply chain partners to avoid a repeat of the meltdown that occurred in 2021–22.</div>

Although major US gateways have made some progress in promoting data sharing on vessel arrivals, port authorities say more systemic thinking must take place among carriers and their supply chain partners to avoid a repeat of the meltdown that occurred in 2021–22.

<div class="phx-topic">US container ports are receiving better buy-in from their supply chain partners, including ocean carriers, in sharing shipment information in advance to avoid a repeat of the congestion issues experienced during the post-pandemic cargo tsunami of 2021–22. But greater cooperation will be needed to handle the next cargo surge when it happens, port officials say. Managers of the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA), the Port of Long Beach, the South Carolina Ports Authority and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey told the Journal of Commerce Port Performance webcast last week their data-sharing efforts are still hung up on the question of what proprietary data is. “We’re getting better buy-in from the carriers, but the issue is every sector of the supply chain thinks its information is proprietary,” said Beth Rooney, port director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. “If we are going to provide efficiency, we must think more systemically and cohesively rather than just focusing on your aspect of the supply chain,” she added. In retrospect, the vessel backlogs, congested marine terminals, displaced chassis, rail car shortages and fill-to-capacity warehouses that ports faced in 2021–22 were due to a lack of communication among supply chain partners, said Joel Britt, vice president-terminal operations at the South Carolina Ports Authority. The answer is greater data sharing among the supply chain partners, he said. “We’re trying to help them to help themselves,” Britt said. <h3>Capacity utilization a key factor in port performance </h3>A key indicator of the congestion ports experienced in 2021–22 was that the major gateways were operating at 90% to 95% capacity utilization, each of the four panelists said. Rooney noted that the industry standard for fluidity is that ports experience congestion after they reach 85% because then they have no buffer to handle cargo surges. Today, the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma is operating at 55% to 60% utilization, Long Beach at 54%, Charleston at 50% and New York-New Jersey 65%, the port officials said. A key difference in today’s supply chain fluidity is that warehouses in those regions are moving each season’s merchandise smoothly through their facilities to make room for the subsequent seasonal shipments, the port managers said. In 2021–22, the warehouses were filled to capacity, which forced importers to store inbound containers where they didn’t belong, such as at rail facilities, in truckers’ yards and on marine terminals. “It takes a long time to claw out of that,” said Jeff Bellerud, chief operating officer of the NWSA. Over the past several years, Seattle-Tacoma has developed or is in the process of locating near-dock yards for temporary storage of containers until they are needed. A second berth was added to the T-5 container terminal, a densification project at the Husky Terminal is underway and the port authority is working with railroads to develop support infrastructure to assemble longer trains and enable quicker train arrivals and departures, Bellerud said. Charleston’s Wando Terminal densification project has doubled the annual capacity of the port’s largest container terminal to 2.4 million TEUs a year, Britt said. And the Hugh Leatherman Terminal expansion project will have three berths with an annual capacity of 2.4 million TEUs, while the port’s near-dock rail project will accommodate 1 million rail moves upon completion, Britt said. Although Long Beach is a landlord port, in some ways it is resembling an operating port, said Noel Hacegaba, chief operating officer at the port. Long Beach is not taking over the operations, but rather is encouraging and contributing to measures that will improve operational efficiency. The Pier S facility is contributing to port fluidity as a logistics center for temporary storage of containers. Long Beach is developing the Pier B on-dock rail support facility for building longer inland point intermodal (IPI) trains to the US interior, a project that will be introduced in phases through 2032, Hacegaba said. In New York-New Jersey, every terminal is densifying its operations to increase capacity because the port authority has no more waterfront property to build on, Rooney said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

US container ports are receiving better buy-in from their supply chain partners, including ocean carriers, in sharing shipment information in advance to avoid a repeat of the congestion issues experienced during the post-pandemic cargo tsunami of 2021–22. But greater cooperation will be needed to handle the next cargo surge when it happens, port officials say. Managers of the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA), the Port of Long Beach, the South Carolina Ports Authority and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey told the Journal of Commerce Port Performance webcast last week their data-sharing efforts are still hung up on the question of what proprietary data is. “We’re getting better buy-in from the carriers, but the issue is every sector of the supply chain thinks its information is proprietary,” said Beth Rooney, port director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. “If we are going to provide efficiency, we must think more systemically and cohesively rather than just focusing on your aspect of the supply chain,” she added. In retrospect, the vessel backlogs, congested marine terminals, displaced chassis, rail car shortages and fill-to-capacity warehouses that ports faced in 2021–22 were due to a lack of communication among supply chain partners, said Joel Britt, vice president-terminal operations at the South Carolina Ports Authority. The answer is greater data sharing among the supply chain partners, he said. “We’re trying to help them to help themselves,” Britt said. Capacity utilization a key factor in port performance A key indicator of the congestion ports experienced in 2021–22 was that the major gateways were operating at 90% to 95% capacity utilization, each of the four panelists said. Rooney noted that the industry standard for fluidity is that ports experience congestion after they reach 85% because then they have no buffer to handle cargo surges. Today, the Northwest Seaport Alliance (NWSA) of Seattle and Tacoma is operating at 55% to 60% utilization, Long Beach at 54%, Charleston at 50% and New York-New Jersey 65%, the port officials said. A key difference in today’s supply chain fluidity is that warehouses in those regions are moving each season’s merchandise smoothly through their facilities to make room for the subsequent seasonal shipments, the port managers said. In 2021–22, the warehouses were filled to capacity, which forced importers to store inbound containers where they didn’t belong, such as at rail facilities, in truckers’ yards and on marine terminals. “It takes a long time to claw out of that,” said Jeff Bellerud, chief operating officer of the NWSA. Over the past several years, Seattle-Tacoma has developed or is in the process of locating near-dock yards for temporary storage of containers until they are needed. A second berth was added to the T-5 container terminal, a densification project at the Husky Terminal is underway and the port authority is working with railroads to develop support infrastructure to assemble longer trains and enable quicker train arrivals and departures, Bellerud said. Charleston’s Wando Terminal densification project has doubled the annual capacity of the port’s largest container terminal to 2.4 million TEUs a year, Britt said. And the Hugh Leatherman Terminal expansion project will have three berths with an annual capacity of 2.4 million TEUs, while the port’s near-dock rail project will accommodate 1 million rail moves upon completion, Britt said. Although Long Beach is a landlord port, in some ways it is resembling an operating port, said Noel Hacegaba, chief operating officer at the port. Long Beach is not taking over the operations, but rather is encouraging and contributing to measures that will improve operational efficiency. The Pier S facility is contributing to port fluidity as a logistics center for temporary storage of containers. Long Beach is developing the Pier B on-dock rail support facility for building longer inland point intermodal (IPI) trains to the US interior, a project that will be introduced in phases through 2032, Hacegaba said. In New York-New Jersey, every terminal is densifying its operations to increase capacity because the port authority has no more waterfront property to build on, Rooney said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Port News

Container lines

North American ports

Marine terminals

Container Shipping News

Maritime

More data sharing crucial to avoiding future port congestion: officials

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">As economists question whether the US consumer is finally pulling back as tariff costs increasingly show in store prices, another major generator of freight manufacturing orders is showing signs of sputtering.</div>

As economists question whether the US consumer is finally pulling back as tariff costs increasingly show in store prices, another major generator of freight manufacturing orders is showing signs of sputtering.

<div class="phx-topic">The following is the cover story for the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook.US freight demand enters 2026 with import container volumes in retraction and surface freight demand in a three-year slump.  Container volumes will be flat to down next year, according to forecasts from S&amp;P Global Ratings and Moody’s, while truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) operators steel themselves for another so-so year. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6135159_0.1.jpg"></img></div>US air cargo growth is declining, with volumes down on a year-over-year basis for six straight months through October, according to the International Air Transport Association. Intermodal growth, meanwhile, has notably fared well, rising in the mid-single digits.  Importantly, and despite negative headlines on unemployment and retail confidence, economists expect the US economy to muster on, most likely avoiding a recession. US real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 2.2% in 2026 after climbing 2% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2024, according to economists from S&amp;P Global, the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.   But while the US economy expands, US inventory levels are not. And following months of frontloading imports, US retailers and other importers are replenishing gingerly. US inventory levels mildly expanded in November, according to the Logistics Managers Index. But companies have plenty of incentives to keep inventories lean, as the index shows that carrying costs have been increasing monthly since the beginning of 2025.   Attention is focused on US consumers as they show signs of cutting back amid stubborn inflation. The major consumer pricing indicators — via the University of Michigan’s index and the Consumer Board’s survey — paint a picture of an increasingly jittery consumer, a picture that is no longer exclusive to low-income Americans. The latest US unemployment numbers from the US Labor Department show hiring expanded in October, but at a slower pace, while more workers are staying put in their current roles. As economists question whether the near-unstoppable US consumer is finally pulling back as tariff costs increasingly show in store prices, another major generator of freight is showing signs of sputtering. New US manufacturing orders in November fell to their lowest point since May, according to the US manufacturing ISM. <h3>Warehouses ‘filled with unsold stock’ </h3>A Conference Board survey on Nov. 22 revealed that falling US consumer confidence had reached its lowest since April, when the US began its tariff onslaught. “Manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&amp;P Global. “For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data was available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.”  Another major driver of freight demand — housing — isn’t looking too good, either. Privately owned housing starts were down 11.1% year over year in August, the latest month for which data is available from the US Census Bureau following the US government shutdown.  The US economy in 2026 “entirely hinges on the housing industrial complex unlocking itself, and I don’t see that happening quickly,” Jason Miller, a Michigan State University supply chain professor, told the Journal of Commerce. Interest rates need to drop to allow house buyers to unlock lower financing, he said.  Keith Prather, co-founder and managing partner of consultancy Armada Corporate Intelligence, has a more positive outlook but doesn’t expect an immediate jolt to the economy.  “There are a lot of different moving parts in the US economy right now,” Prather said. He pointed to the reshoring of manufacturing in the US as a trend that will — eventually — create more domestic freight demand, although not in the short term.  <h3>Feel familiar?   </h3>The weakening demand indicators and downbeat freight forecasts suggest a first half of 2026 that resembles much of 2025. The for-hire trucking ton-mile index inched up just 0.4% in the first eight months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.   The supply-demand imbalance in trucking seemed to become more punishing as 2025 progressed, with little sign of a resolution or turning point ahead.  “We really thought toward the end of last year, 2024, that we had reached an equilibrium,” said Jeff Tucker, CEO of Tucker Company Worldwide, the largest family-owned US freight brokerage. “We felt 2025 showed some promise ... [but] nobody saw the breadth and depth of the impact of the tariff regime. “ Despite the slump, intermodal volume has been resilient. Domestic container volume, excluding trailers, rose 3.5% year over year between January and October, while international intermodal increased 4.3% during the same period, according to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).   Intermodal demand in 2026, though, will continue to be heavily tied to tariffs, trucking and ports. There is a strong nexus between international intermodal and Asian imports to West Coast ports. Domestic intermodal demand is often tied to how easy it is to procure trucks and how much cost is a factor in procurement decisions. If tariffs, for example, are squeezing overall margins, then a shipper might convert less service-sensitive freight to intermodal to meet their budget targets.  <h3>Lurching into 2026  </h3>No import growth is rare in US ocean shipping. There have been just two periods in which US containerized import volumes have declined to the extent seen in recent months, said analyst John McCown. The most recent was in the spring of 2020, when retailers and other importers slashed orders on fears that retail consumption would plunge in the early days of the pandemic, and the first was 2008–09 in the wake of the financial crisis, he said.  “I think we’re looking at perhaps the worst performance year that I can recall, in 2026, in terms of volume growth,” McCown said.  S&amp;P Global Ratings on Dec. 10 forecast that US container volumes will be down 2% in 2026 from 2025, while Moody’s Ratings on Nov. 20 predicted flat to negative import volume growth. The S&amp;P Global outlook calls for a rebound in volume of 6% in 2027 on the hopes of a more stable trade policy. For all of 2025, imports are estimated to be down 1.4% from 2024 at 25.2 million TEUs, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). US retailers are signaling they will be keeping volumes at a significant year-over-year deficit at least through April. Volumes in January, February, March and April are expected to be, respectively, 10.3%, 8.5%,16.8%, and 11% lower than the corresponding months in 2025, according to the Global Port Tracker, which is created by Hackett Associates on behalf of the NRF. Port operators, too, are budgeting for declines or only slow growth in 2026. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said in November it is budgeting for total container volumes of 8.5 million TEUs in 2026, which would be just over a 2% decline from 2024. Since 2016, NY-NJ port container volumes have grown at an annual average of 4.2%. Remarkably, US containerized exports have been resilient. Volumes in the first nine months of 2025 were up 2.1% from a year earlier, with containerized agricultural exports 1.2% higher in the same period, according to the latest available data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. In a twist of trade, US export growth is outpacing gains in imports, or a lack thereof. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.Journal of Commerce editorial staff contributed to this report. </div>

The following is the cover story for the Journal of Commerce’s 2026 Annual Review and Outlook. US freight demand enters 2026 with import container volumes in retraction and surface freight demand in a three-year slump.  Container volumes will be flat to down next year, according to forecasts from S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s, while truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) operators steel themselves for another so-so year. US air cargo growth is declining, with volumes down on a year-over-year basis for six straight months through October, according to the International Air Transport Association. Intermodal growth, meanwhile, has notably fared well, rising in the mid-single digits.  Importantly, and despite negative headlines on unemployment and retail confidence, economists expect the US economy to muster on, most likely avoiding a recession. US real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow 2.2% in 2026 after climbing 2% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2024, according to economists from S&P Global, the parent company of the Journal of Commerce.   But while the US economy expands, US inventory levels are not. And following months of frontloading imports, US retailers and other importers are replenishing gingerly. US inventory levels mildly expanded in November, according to the Logistics Managers Index. But companies have plenty of incentives to keep inventories lean, as the index shows that carrying costs have been increasing monthly since the beginning of 2025.   Attention is focused on US consumers as they show signs of cutting back amid stubborn inflation. The major consumer pricing indicators — via the University of Michigan’s index and the Consumer Board’s survey — paint a picture of an increasingly jittery consumer, a picture that is no longer exclusive to low-income Americans. The latest US unemployment numbers from the US Labor Department show hiring expanded in October, but at a slower pace, while more workers are staying put in their current roles. As economists question whether the near-unstoppable US consumer is finally pulling back as tariff costs increasingly show in store prices, another major generator of freight is showing signs of sputtering. New US manufacturing orders in November fell to their lowest point since May, according to the US manufacturing ISM. Warehouses ‘filled with unsold stock’ A Conference Board survey on Nov. 22 revealed that falling US consumer confidence had reached its lowest since April, when the US began its tariff onslaught. “Manufacturers are making more goods but often not finding buyers for these products,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global. “For two successive months now, warehouses have filled with unsold stock to a degree not previously seen since comparable data was available in 2007. This unplanned accumulation of stock is usually a precursor to reduced production in the coming months.”  Another major driver of freight demand — housing — isn’t looking too good, either. Privately owned housing starts were down 11.1% year over year in August, the latest month for which data is available from the US Census Bureau following the US government shutdown.  The US economy in 2026 “entirely hinges on the housing industrial complex unlocking itself, and I don’t see that happening quickly,” Jason Miller, a Michigan State University supply chain professor, told the Journal of Commerce. Interest rates need to drop to allow house buyers to unlock lower financing, he said.  Keith Prather, co-founder and managing partner of consultancy Armada Corporate Intelligence, has a more positive outlook but doesn’t expect an immediate jolt to the economy.  “There are a lot of different moving parts in the US economy right now,” Prather said. He pointed to the reshoring of manufacturing in the US as a trend that will — eventually — create more domestic freight demand, although not in the short term.  Feel familiar?   The weakening demand indicators and downbeat freight forecasts suggest a first half of 2026 that resembles much of 2025. The for-hire trucking ton-mile index inched up just 0.4% in the first eight months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024.   The supply-demand imbalance in trucking seemed to become more punishing as 2025 progressed, with little sign of a resolution or turning point ahead.  “We really thought toward the end of last year, 2024, that we had reached an equilibrium,” said Jeff Tucker, CEO of Tucker Company Worldwide, the largest family-owned US freight brokerage. “We felt 2025 showed some promise ... [but] nobody saw the breadth and depth of the impact of the tariff regime. “ Despite the slump, intermodal volume has been resilient. Domestic container volume, excluding trailers, rose 3.5% year over year between January and October, while international intermodal increased 4.3% during the same period, according to the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA).   Intermodal demand in 2026, though, will continue to be heavily tied to tariffs, trucking and ports. There is a strong nexus between international intermodal and Asian imports to West Coast ports. Domestic intermodal demand is often tied to how easy it is to procure trucks and how much cost is a factor in procurement decisions. If tariffs, for example, are squeezing overall margins, then a shipper might convert less service-sensitive freight to intermodal to meet their budget targets.  Lurching into 2026  No import growth is rare in US ocean shipping. There have been just two periods in which US containerized import volumes have declined to the extent seen in recent months, said analyst John McCown. The most recent was in the spring of 2020, when retailers and other importers slashed orders on fears that retail consumption would plunge in the early days of the pandemic, and the first was 2008–09 in the wake of the financial crisis, he said.  “I think we’re looking at perhaps the worst performance year that I can recall, in 2026, in terms of volume growth,” McCown said.  S&P Global Ratings on Dec. 10 forecast that US container volumes will be down 2% in 2026 from 2025, while Moody’s Ratings on Nov. 20 predicted flat to negative import volume growth. The S&P Global outlook calls for a rebound in volume of 6% in 2027 on the hopes of a more stable trade policy. For all of 2025, imports are estimated to be down 1.4% from 2024 at 25.2 million TEUs, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). US retailers are signaling they will be keeping volumes at a significant year-over-year deficit at least through April. Volumes in January, February, March and April are expected to be, respectively, 10.3%, 8.5%,16.8%, and 11% lower than the corresponding months in 2025, according to the Global Port Tracker, which is created by Hackett Associates on behalf of the NRF. Port operators, too, are budgeting for declines or only slow growth in 2026. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey said in November it is budgeting for total container volumes of 8.5 million TEUs in 2026, which would be just over a 2% decline from 2024. Since 2016, NY-NJ port container volumes have grown at an annual average of 4.2%. Remarkably, US containerized exports have been resilient. Volumes in the first nine months of 2025 were up 2.1% from a year earlier, with containerized agricultural exports 1.2% higher in the same period, according to the latest available data from PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. In a twist of trade, US export growth is outpacing gains in imports, or a lack thereof. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .Journal of Commerce editorial staff contributed to this report.

Supply chain

US freight industry enters 2026 with low growth expectations

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Alliance members Ocean Network Express, HMM and Yang Ming said they were “closely monitoring” the situation around the Red Sea with the focus on the safety of crew, ship and cargo.</div>

Alliance members Ocean Network Express, HMM and Yang Ming said they were “closely monitoring” the situation around the Red Sea with the focus on the safety of crew, ship and cargo.

<div class="phx-topic">The Premier Alliance unveiled its updated 2026 network Monday with services from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and US East Coast continuing to divert around southern Africa to avoid passing through the Red Sea. Premier Alliance members Ocean Network Express (ONE), HMM and Yang Ming said they were “closely monitoring” the situation around the Red Sea with the focus on the safety of the crew, ship and cargo. ONE CEO Jeremy Nixon said in a statement that the 2026 product was designed to be flexible and reliable to support global trade “while prioritizing safety and stability amid geopolitical uncertainties.” South Korean flagship HMM noted the “evolving situation in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal” and promised “timely communication and support” for customers should services return to the shorter route. Peter Sand, chief analyst for rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said the risk assessment currently being carried out by ocean carriers would consider the ability, opportunity and intent of Houthi militants to attack ships from their base in Yemen. “Though we have seen a growing interest in Suez transits in the past months, it’s still not at a point where the large-scale return is imminent,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce. “Premier Alliance have not been leading the ‘testing of waters,’ and we know that Japanese owners [of ONE] in general are amongst the most risk-averse ship owners.” CMA CGM’s Indamex service from Jan. 15 will transit the Suez Canal on fronthaul and backhaul voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast. <h3>Tempering market optimism </h3>Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce contributor, said although there was growing market optimism related to a return to the Red Sea, there was little clarity to support this. “Today, the Houthi Ministry of Foreign Affairs cautioned against what they termed ‘continued Zionist escalation in Gaza and flagrant violations of the ceasefire agreement,’” Jensen wrote in a LinkedIn post Monday. “This can be interpreted as a thinly veiled threat that they could choose to end their self-imposed ceasefire against merchant shipping unless the situation in Gaza develops in a way they see as more favorable,” he added. While the Premier Alliance rolls out its 2026 network, Sand said one area where shippers will be looking closely is schedule reliability. Xeneta data shows that Premier Alliance began at a global reliability of 36% in the first quarter, sliding to 22% in the third quarter before inching up to 23% thus far in the fourth quarter. Sand said across the services offered under the 2026 network, it appears the alliance will call fewer ports and, “that in itself could prove to be one pathway to better on-time performance.” <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="00f898cc-0bf5-4e4d-80d3-6db9454b1165"></dynamic-object></div>In its updated 2026 product, HMM said its role in the Premier Alliance network would be bolstered by additional capacity from new vessels that will be delivered through 2026. The carrier has 20 ships on order — 12 vessels of 13,000 TEUs and eight of 14,000 TEUs. “This updated network aims to deliver improved service reliability by means of an optimized global structure ... the refined network is designed to strengthen overall operational stability whilst preserving the company’s broad international reach,” HMM said. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The Premier Alliance unveiled its updated 2026 network Monday with services from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and US East Coast continuing to divert around southern Africa to avoid passing through the Red Sea. Premier Alliance members Ocean Network Express (ONE), HMM and Yang Ming said they were “closely monitoring” the situation around the Red Sea with the focus on the safety of the crew, ship and cargo. ONE CEO Jeremy Nixon said in a statement that the 2026 product was designed to be flexible and reliable to support global trade “while prioritizing safety and stability amid geopolitical uncertainties.” South Korean flagship HMM noted the “evolving situation in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait and the Suez Canal” and promised “timely communication and support” for customers should services return to the shorter route. Peter Sand, chief analyst for rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said the risk assessment currently being carried out by ocean carriers would consider the ability, opportunity and intent of Houthi militants to attack ships from their base in Yemen. “Though we have seen a growing interest in Suez transits in the past months, it’s still not at a point where the large-scale return is imminent,” Sand told the Journal of Commerce. “Premier Alliance have not been leading the ‘testing of waters,’ and we know that Japanese owners [of ONE] in general are amongst the most risk-averse ship owners.” CMA CGM’s Indamex service from Jan. 15 will transit the Suez Canal on fronthaul and backhaul voyages between India/Pakistan and the US East Coast. Tempering market optimism Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce contributor, said although there was growing market optimism related to a return to the Red Sea, there was little clarity to support this. “Today, the Houthi Ministry of Foreign Affairs cautioned against what they termed ‘continued Zionist escalation in Gaza and flagrant violations of the ceasefire agreement,’” Jensen wrote in a LinkedIn post Monday. “This can be interpreted as a thinly veiled threat that they could choose to end their self-imposed ceasefire against merchant shipping unless the situation in Gaza develops in a way they see as more favorable,” he added. While the Premier Alliance rolls out its 2026 network, Sand said one area where shippers will be looking closely is schedule reliability. Xeneta data shows that Premier Alliance began at a global reliability of 36% in the first quarter, sliding to 22% in the third quarter before inching up to 23% thus far in the fourth quarter. Sand said across the services offered under the 2026 network, it appears the alliance will call fewer ports and, “that in itself could prove to be one pathway to better on-time performance.” In its updated 2026 product, HMM said its role in the Premier Alliance network would be bolstered by additional capacity from new vessels that will be delivered through 2026. The carrier has 20 ships on order — 12 vessels of 13,000 TEUs and eight of 14,000 TEUs. “This updated network aims to deliver improved service reliability by means of an optimized global structure ... the refined network is designed to strengthen overall operational stability whilst preserving the company’s broad international reach,” HMM said. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Premier Alliance’s 2026 network to maintain Red Sea diversions

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