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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Expectations of a solid peak season from Asia to both Europe and North America could lead to higher ocean container freight rates in the third quarter, but the gains are likely to be only temporary.</div>

Expectations of a solid peak season from Asia to both Europe and North America could lead to higher ocean container freight rates in the third quarter, but the gains are likely to be only temporary.

<div>Expectations of a solid peak season from Asia to both Europe and North America could lead to higher ocean container freight rates in the third quarter, but the gains are likely to be only temporary. Market watchers have little confidence in a sustained improvement as ocean carriers struggle against an unhealthy supply-demand imbalance that will extend well into 2015.China’s recent export figures <a>have been better than expected</a> as the economic recovery of the U.S. and Europe continues to drive higher consumer spending. Manufacturing output in mainland China is up, and ports and shipping lines are reporting impressive gains in container...

Expectations of a solid peak season from Asia to both Europe and North America could lead to higher ocean container freight rates in the third quarter, but the gains are likely to be only temporary. Market watchers have little confidence in a sustained improvement as ocean carriers struggle against an unhealthy supply-demand imbalance that will extend well into 2015. China’s recent export figures have been better than expected as the economic recovery of the U.S. and Europe continues to drive higher consumer spending. Manufacturing output in mainland China is up, and ports and shipping lines are reporting impressive gains in container volume. Year-to-date through May, Asia-to-Europe container volumes are up 8 percent, according to Container Trades Statistics, versus virtually no growth during the same period in 2013. Asia-to-North America volumes are up 4.7 percent year-to-date through June , versus only 1.5 percent growth in the same period in 2013, according to PIERS, the data division of JOC Group Inc. Growth accelerating in east-west headhaul lanes Full-size chart This long-awaited development in the container shipping environment is improving load factors on the east-west trades and could well lead to an increase in spot rates in the second half of the year, but analysts do not expect the good times to roll for long. Citi Research predicts a spike in rates during the third quarter, and with demand improving to levels unseen in recent years, container lines have bumped up capacity in preparation for the coming peak season. As a result, only 1.7 percent of the global container fleet is idled, the lowest level since August 2011. The additional capacity coming online will be augmented by new vessels. According to Drewry, 35 vessels totalling 285,300 TEUs will be delivered in the third quarter and another 42 ships (333,600 TEUs) in the last three months of 2014. “Although the high level of demolition –– 256,000 TEUs in the first half, an increase of 25 percent year-over-year –– provides some relief against supply growth, deliveries are still outpacing scrapping,” according to Citi Research. The research report said capacity of 705,000 TEUs has been delivered so far this year, and another 885,000 TEUs in ship capacity is scheduled for the second half. Overall, supply growth is estimated to reach 5.6 percent in 2014, slightly lower than 2013’s 5.7 percent. Martin Dixon, Drewry director and head of research products, predicted that freight rate levels would remain under pressure into 2015. “Fleet growth is expected to accelerate and slot costs to continue to fall, notwithstanding some modest recovery in overall demand,” he told JOC.com. But he added that some of the decline in overall rate levels was being driven by lower slot costs –– as slot costs fell, so did freight rates. “The big carriers have realized that they can still remain profitable despite low freight rates due to their unit cost advantage. For carriers, this means that future profitability, and for some, survival, will depend on cost leadership,” Dixon told JOC.com in June — a fact that explains carriers’ aggressive embrace of mega-ship tonnage. Dixon said encouraging growth was returning to head-haul east-west trades, and together with tight capacity management at a trade route level was helping to support spot rates. “However, despite this, we expect overall east-west freight rate levels to fall this year because carriers agreed to lower contract rates earlier in the year, and on the trans-Pacific, cargo moving on contract rates accounts for the majority of the eastbound trade,” he said. DBS Research sees a bright picture of economic recovery in a report that said the outlook for both the U.S. and Europe trade flows were encouraging for the rest of the year and “volume improvements would underpin sentiment.” The investment bank told investors that manufacturing in the U.S. gained momentum in June and the number of new orders hit its highest level in more than four years. Consumer sentiment in the U.S. also rose in June, and the unemployment rate fell to a near-6-year low of 6.1 percent. Economic recovery in the Eurozone is also expected to continue at a moderate pace in the coming months. Contact Greg Knowler at gknowler@joc.com and follow him on Twitter: @greg_knowler .

Container lines

Rising trade will lift rates, but not for long, analysts say

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The agency ruled in 2024 that shippers can pick their own chassis when they arrange for truck transportation, but compliance with that ruling remains unclear. </div>

The agency ruled in 2024 that shippers can pick their own chassis when they arrange for truck transportation, but compliance with that ruling remains unclear.

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<div class="phx-topic">The Federal Maritime Commission is launching its second probe into chassis restrictions ocean carriers put on truckers when hauling a container. The probe comes after the agency ruled in 2024 that shippers can choose their own chassis when they contract with their own trucker. In a federal register notice Friday, the FMC said it plans to open a 60-day window for comments about “service contract terms or other means to mandate that motor carriers (truckers) and shippers use the ocean common carriers’ designated chassis.” The comments are sought in relation to an investigation by the FMC over allegations that “ocean common carriers may be in violation of the Shipping Act by unjustly and unreasonably restricting truckers and shippers from negotiating and dealing with chassis providers.”The investigation stems from <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fmc-rules-for-truckers-in-chassis-dispute-with-ocean-carriers-5234355">the 2024 agency ruling</a> that ocean carriers have to stop mandating what specific chassis must be used under merchant haulage contracts. The agency upheld an administrative law judge’s earlier decision in a case between the American Trucking Association and the Ocean Carrier Equipment Management Association (OCEMA) that c<a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ocema-appeals-chassis-ruling-to-fmc-commissioners-5193253">ontainer lines violate the Shipping Act when they restrict chassis choice</a> among shippers who are arranging their own container trucking. <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fmc-says-investigating-potential-violations-of-recent-ruling-on-chassis-control-5192272">The FMC was already investigating compliance</a> with a cease-and-desist order in the 2024 ruling, which is still ongoing. The new probe is looking for “any information concerning new or ongoing ocean common carrier practices … to affect, restrict, or inhibit chassis provider selection,” the notice said. Part of the new probe involves whether ocean carriers designate single chassis providers at Chicago and Memphis rail ramps, if providers have enough chassis on-hand, any reimbursement for truckers on chassis split, and whether truckers are given notice about a container being under merchant or carrier haulage, the latter allowing an ocean carrier to choose a chassis. Along with the inland rail ramps, the FMC said its investigation is looking at chassis choice at the Savannah, Los Angeles, and Long Beach ports. As part of the probe into the Southern California market, the FMC is seeking how the “Pool of Pools” operated by the three main chassis providers for the LA-LB ports distinguishes between “carrier haulage and merchant haulage containers and coordinate billing accordingly,” the notice said. OCEMA did not immediately respond to a request for comment into the new investigation.Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto: michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a> </div>

The Federal Maritime Commission is launching its second probe into chassis restrictions ocean carriers put on truckers when hauling a container. The probe comes after the agency ruled in 2024 that shippers can choose their own chassis when they contract with their own trucker. In a federal register notice Friday, the FMC said it plans to open a 60-day window for comments about “service contract terms or other means to mandate that motor carriers (truckers) and shippers use the ocean common carriers’ designated chassis.” The comments are sought in relation to an investigation by the FMC over allegations that “ocean common carriers may be in violation of the Shipping Act by unjustly and unreasonably restricting truckers and shippers from negotiating and dealing with chassis providers.” The investigation stems from the 2024 agency ruling that ocean carriers have to stop mandating what specific chassis must be used under merchant haulage contracts. The agency upheld an administrative law judge’s earlier decision in a case between the American Trucking Association and the Ocean Carrier Equipment Management Association (OCEMA) that c ontainer lines violate the Shipping Act when they restrict chassis choice among shippers who are arranging their own container trucking. The FMC was already investigating compliance with a cease-and-desist order in the 2024 ruling, which is still ongoing. The new probe is looking for “any information concerning new or ongoing ocean common carrier practices … to affect, restrict, or inhibit chassis provider selection,” the notice said. Part of the new probe involves whether ocean carriers designate single chassis providers at Chicago and Memphis rail ramps, if providers have enough chassis on-hand, any reimbursement for truckers on chassis split, and whether truckers are given notice about a container being under merchant or carrier haulage, the latter allowing an ocean carrier to choose a chassis. Along with the inland rail ramps, the FMC said its investigation is looking at chassis choice at the Savannah, Los Angeles, and Long Beach ports. As part of the probe into the Southern California market, the FMC is seeking how the “Pool of Pools” operated by the three main chassis providers for the LA-LB ports distinguishes between “carrier haulage and merchant haulage containers and coordinate billing accordingly,” the notice said. OCEMA did not immediately respond to a request for comment into the new investigation. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com

Drayage

FMC takes second look at ocean carrier limits on chassis choice

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Transflo, which sells automation software to transportation providers, is using AI agents to identify specific exceptions common to LTL billing errors.</div>

Transflo, which sells automation software to transportation providers, is using AI agents to identify specific exceptions common to LTL billing errors.

<div class="phx-topic">Transflo, a provider of workflow software for freight transportation companies, has launched an invoice audit and resolution product for less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments, targeting error rates that touch nearly a third of shipments in that mode. The product is geared toward solving the interactions between LTL carriers and brokers that result in the manual management of exceptions on inaccurate freight bills by instead using automated invoice matching and validation. “We designed this solution to address the inherent complexity of LTL billing, reducing invoice resolution from days to minutes, accelerating payments, and delivering transparency for all parties,” Transflo CEO Renee Krug said in a statement Thursday. The product, called Workflow AI for LTL, is built around artificial intelligence (AI) agents trained to handle specific invoice exception types, as opposed to general purpose AI agents that are trained over time to automate a range of transportation processes. Ultimately, Transflo said, the goal is to make auditing teams 10 times more productive in handling additional invoices without adding headcount. The company estimates that 30% to 40% of LTL invoices are inaccurate. The new product is an example of so-called agentic AI overlapping with process automation in the freight transportation industry. A range of providers have sprung up in the last two years building AI agents, also called digital workers, to help brokers avoid adding headcount. Most of those companies are taking aim at workflow processes, from responding to shipper quote requests to automating appointment scheduling to invoice auditing, reconciling, and payment, such as Transflo’s product. The focus on LTL is also unique in that the majority of third-party automation software has been trained on the much larger and more fragmented truckload industry, leaving LTL brokers and carriers to largely develop their own internal solutions to automate processes. Because of the differences in pricing, quoting, and network operations between LTL and truckload, the technologies are rarely transferable. Contact Eric Johnson at <a href="mailto:eric.johnson@spglobal.com">eric.johnson@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Transflo, a provider of workflow software for freight transportation companies, has launched an invoice audit and resolution product for less-than-truckload (LTL) shipments, targeting error rates that touch nearly a third of shipments in that mode. The product is geared toward solving the interactions between LTL carriers and brokers that result in the manual management of exceptions on inaccurate freight bills by instead using automated invoice matching and validation. “We designed this solution to address the inherent complexity of LTL billing, reducing invoice resolution from days to minutes, accelerating payments, and delivering transparency for all parties,” Transflo CEO Renee Krug said in a statement Thursday. The product, called Workflow AI for LTL, is built around artificial intelligence (AI) agents trained to handle specific invoice exception types, as opposed to general purpose AI agents that are trained over time to automate a range of transportation processes. Ultimately, Transflo said, the goal is to make auditing teams 10 times more productive in handling additional invoices without adding headcount. The company estimates that 30% to 40% of LTL invoices are inaccurate. The new product is an example of so-called agentic AI overlapping with process automation in the freight transportation industry. A range of providers have sprung up in the last two years building AI agents, also called digital workers, to help brokers avoid adding headcount. Most of those companies are taking aim at workflow processes, from responding to shipper quote requests to automating appointment scheduling to invoice auditing, reconciling, and payment, such as Transflo’s product. The focus on LTL is also unique in that the majority of third-party automation software has been trained on the much larger and more fragmented truckload industry, leaving LTL brokers and carriers to largely develop their own internal solutions to automate processes. Because of the differences in pricing, quoting, and network operations between LTL and truckload, the technologies are rarely transferable. Contact Eric Johnson at eric.johnson@spglobal.com .

Trucking News

Surface

Logistics Technology News

Software provider targets LTL invoice inaccuracies with automation solution

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Despite 2025 being shaped by geopolitics and trade upheaval, France’s largest container port of Le Havre was able to capitalize on significant investments to modernize its terminal infrastructure.</div>

Despite 2025 being shaped by geopolitics and trade upheaval, France’s largest container port of Le Havre was able to capitalize on significant investments to modernize its terminal infrastructure.

<div class="phx-topic">France’s Haropa Port, operator of the Northern Europe hub Le Havre, on Friday reported record container volumes for 2025, supported by huge investments into terminals partly owned by three of the world’s largest ocean carriers. Haropa Port comprises the ports of Le Havre, Rouen and Paris. Despite a year shaped by geopolitics and trade upheaval, container traffic at Haropa increased 4% in 2025, setting a record with more than 3.2 million TEUs handled during the year. Transhipment was up 2.4%, with hinterland traffic up 4% at 2.3 million TEUs. “The performance of the port will be strengthened in 2026 and 2027 and the coming years by the huge investment, led by the by the main terminal operators,” Kris Danaradjou, deputy CEO in charge of development at Haropa Port, told the Journal of Commerce. Mediterranean Shipping Co., CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd were among the investors that committed €1.2 billion ($1.4 billion) to modernize Haropa’s infrastructure. Danaradjou said Haropa’s operations were shaped by “an extremely unpredictable” international environment, marked by the introduction of US tariffs, the reshuffling of carrier alliances and strategies, and the normalization of vessel routing via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal. <h3>Return to Red Sea could ‘challenge’ port </h3>Asked how Le Havre was preparing for a potential return of shipping to Suez and Red Sea transits and the congestion that shift was expected to bring, Danaradjou acknowledged it would be a challenge. “What will be the trickiest period is the transition when you have some vessels going through the Suez and others going around the Cape of Good Hope, and when you receive this kind of traffic in the same period, it could be a challenge,” he said. But Danaradjou said Le Havre had significant land available to terminals if they needed to clear their yards, and road, rail and barge options to move import containers to their inland destinations. “We are also a deep-water port so there is little waiting time, and we can move ships from the mooring area to the quay within an hour,” he said. Haropa Port has made multimodality a priority to improve decarbonization, the French port operator said in a statement. On the River Seine corridor that stretches from Le Havre to Paris, modal share of barge traffic grew from 19.7% in 2024 to 20.3% last year, in line with objectives set in Haropa’s 2020–25 strategic plan. River container traffic measured at the Paris terminals grew 1% after several record years, but rail container transport from Le Havre to the hinterland reached a record 145,000 TEUs last year, up 18%. Despite US tariffs on the European Union, trade between France and the US East Coast remained stable in 2025 with about 180,000 TEUs moved on the trans-Atlantic. The US is Haropa’s largest export market with about 30% of the cargo comprising wine and spirits, and the rest made up of commodities including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and dairy products. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

France’s Haropa Port, operator of the Northern Europe hub Le Havre, on Friday reported record container volumes for 2025, supported by huge investments into terminals partly owned by three of the world’s largest ocean carriers. Haropa Port comprises the ports of Le Havre, Rouen and Paris. Despite a year shaped by geopolitics and trade upheaval, container traffic at Haropa increased 4% in 2025, setting a record with more than 3.2 million TEUs handled during the year. Transhipment was up 2.4%, with hinterland traffic up 4% at 2.3 million TEUs. “The performance of the port will be strengthened in 2026 and 2027 and the coming years by the huge investment, led by the by the main terminal operators,” Kris Danaradjou, deputy CEO in charge of development at Haropa Port, told the Journal of Commerce. Mediterranean Shipping Co., CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd were among the investors that committed €1.2 billion ($1.4 billion) to modernize Haropa’s infrastructure. Danaradjou said Haropa’s operations were shaped by “an extremely unpredictable” international environment, marked by the introduction of US tariffs, the reshuffling of carrier alliances and strategies, and the normalization of vessel routing via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal. Return to Red Sea could ‘challenge’ port Asked how Le Havre was preparing for a potential return of shipping to Suez and Red Sea transits and the congestion that shift was expected to bring, Danaradjou acknowledged it would be a challenge. “What will be the trickiest period is the transition when you have some vessels going through the Suez and others going around the Cape of Good Hope, and when you receive this kind of traffic in the same period, it could be a challenge,” he said. But Danaradjou said Le Havre had significant land available to terminals if they needed to clear their yards, and road, rail and barge options to move import containers to their inland destinations. “We are also a deep-water port so there is little waiting time, and we can move ships from the mooring area to the quay within an hour,” he said. Haropa Port has made multimodality a priority to improve decarbonization, the French port operator said in a statement. On the River Seine corridor that stretches from Le Havre to Paris, modal share of barge traffic grew from 19.7% in 2024 to 20.3% last year, in line with objectives set in Haropa’s 2020–25 strategic plan. River container traffic measured at the Paris terminals grew 1% after several record years, but rail container transport from Le Havre to the hinterland reached a record 145,000 TEUs last year, up 18%. Despite US tariffs on the European Union, trade between France and the US East Coast remained stable in 2025 with about 180,000 TEUs moved on the trans-Atlantic. The US is Haropa’s largest export market with about 30% of the cargo comprising wine and spirits, and the rest made up of commodities including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and dairy products. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

French port operator posts record volumes as carrier investments pay off 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The multimodal option is aimed at shippers wanting predictability in cross-border shipments and the ability to control costs.</div>

The multimodal option is aimed at shippers wanting predictability in cross-border shipments and the ability to control costs.

<div class="phx-topic">DHL Global Forwarding has launched a Truckair service between China and Turkey, with onward connections to points in Europe. The company this week said its Truckair multimodal service integrates air and road freight to move large-volume shipments, picking up cargo in China and transporting it by truck to Tashkent in Uzbekistan, then onward by air to Istanbul. From there, various modes are used to other European destinations. The service was launched two months ago, DHL said in a statement, with total transit time from China to Turkey at nine to 11 days. While that is longer than the typical four to seven days for all air freight, DHL cited the “cost-efficient” nature of its service. “Demand for agile and cost-efficient logistics solutions continues to rise, backed by sustained growth in China-Europe and broader Asia-Europe trade,” said Aditi Rasquinha, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Greater China. The European Union was China’s second-largest trading partner in 2025, the company said, with bilateral trade up 5.4% year over year at $716 billion. DHL’s latest market update points to tight capacity and rate increases into Chinese New Year, with a demand peak expected in early February. The Truckair service is designed to help shippers avoid short-term volatility while maintaining predictable lead times. “Truckair was developed to meet this growing demand for greater flexibility and predictability in cross-border shipments, enabling businesses to control costs...,” Rasquinha said. Although costs vary from shipment to shipment, DHL maintains customers such as European retailers have reported savings of six-digit figures over the two months of using the multimodal service instead of all air freight. Still, shippers without time-to-market pressures continue to use the overland China-Europe rail network. In 2025, China-Europe freight trains made about 34,000 trips and carried 3.17 million TEUs, up 9.8% and 7.6% year over year, respectively, according to the China State Railway Group, which manages the network. Freight volume on the New Western Land-Sea Corridor, an initiative that began in 2017 to encourage development in China’s western regions, shot up 47.5% to 1.42 million TEUs in 2025, China State Railway Group said in a statement. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>.   </div>

DHL Global Forwarding has launched a Truckair service between China and Turkey, with onward connections to points in Europe. The company this week said its Truckair multimodal service integrates air and road freight to move large-volume shipments, picking up cargo in China and transporting it by truck to Tashkent in Uzbekistan, then onward by air to Istanbul. From there, various modes are used to other European destinations. The service was launched two months ago, DHL said in a statement, with total transit time from China to Turkey at nine to 11 days. While that is longer than the typical four to seven days for all air freight, DHL cited the “cost-efficient” nature of its service. “Demand for agile and cost-efficient logistics solutions continues to rise, backed by sustained growth in China-Europe and broader Asia-Europe trade,” said Aditi Rasquinha, CEO of DHL Global Forwarding Greater China. The European Union was China’s second-largest trading partner in 2025, the company said, with bilateral trade up 5.4% year over year at $716 billion. DHL’s latest market update points to tight capacity and rate increases into Chinese New Year, with a demand peak expected in early February. The Truckair service is designed to help shippers avoid short-term volatility while maintaining predictable lead times. “Truckair was developed to meet this growing demand for greater flexibility and predictability in cross-border shipments, enabling businesses to control costs...,” Rasquinha said. Although costs vary from shipment to shipment, DHL maintains customers such as European retailers have reported savings of six-digit figures over the two months of using the multimodal service instead of all air freight. Still, shippers without time-to-market pressures continue to use the overland China-Europe rail network. In 2025, China-Europe freight trains made about 34,000 trips and carried 3.17 million TEUs, up 9.8% and 7.6% year over year, respectively, according to the China State Railway Group, which manages the network. Freight volume on the New Western Land-Sea Corridor, an initiative that began in 2017 to encourage development in China’s western regions, shot up 47.5% to 1.42 million TEUs in 2025, China State Railway Group said in a statement. Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com .   

Air Cargo Forwarder News

Air Cargo

DHL launches road-air service on busy China-Europe trade lane 

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">As the diversions away from the Suez Canal have shown over the past two years, global shipping is often at the mercy of global hotspots, writes Ted Prince.</div>

As the diversions away from the Suez Canal have shown over the past two years, global shipping is often at the mercy of global hotspots, writes Ted Prince.

<div class="phx-topic">Political science has been front of mind for many of us in the international maritime transportation industry as trade deals become enmeshed in tariffs and other policy matters. While the trans-Pacific remains the primary route for Asia-to-US West Coast cargo, the question of routing alternatives is at an all-time high. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6157386_0.1.jpg"></img></div>Starting in 2023, military activity by Houthi militants in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden targeted commercial vessels and created a direct challenge to Suez Canal transits. This route from Asia to the US East Coast had seen significant growth with the deployment of mega-vessels within alliances utilizing slow steaming. Twenty years ago, conventional wisdom established Singapore as the fulcrum for east-west deployment. It was hard to imagine that Suez services would start in China; however, that is what happened. The Houthi threat resulted in most carriers rerouting from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope around southern Africa. This added up to two weeks in transit and resulted in almost all spare capacity being absorbed. While there has been some discussion of Suez transits resuming, the political instability in Iran has caused some hesitation because of the knock-on risks to crew and cargo. The Suez route now has a theoretical challenge from the Northern Sea Route — which is estimated to be 20% to 40% shorter than the Suez. It could reduce transit time by weeks but still has significant seasonality concerns. Even summer and autumn transits require icebreaker escorts, although navigability is increasing with Arctic warming. Donald Trump’s focus on Greenland has certainly raised the stakes here. Likewise, with the Panama Canal. In his Jan. 20, 2025, inaugural address, Trump stated his intention to “take back” the Panama Canal, especially from alleged Chinese port control. That political pressure no doubt helped push CK Hutchison to arrange the sale of its extensive marine terminal portfolio to a consortium led by US investors (BlackRock/Global Infrastructure Partners, along with Mediterranean Shipping Co./Terminal Investment Limited) less than two months later for approximately $22.8 billion. Since then, political contention between the US, Panama and China has complicated the deal, so its status remains unresolved at present. <h3>Costly alternatives </h3>Among these “canal conundrums,” there is no shortage of ideas seeking to provide alternative routings: 1) The Kra (or Thai) Canal, a waterway across Thailand’s Kra Isthmus, connecting the Gulf of Thailand (Pacific Ocean) to the Andaman Sea (Indian Ocean), has been under consideration, literally for centuries. It would be bypassing the Strait of Malacca to shorten shipping routes between East Asia and the Suez Canal. 2) A canal transiting Nicaragua (Nicaragua Canal or Grand Oceanic Canal) has been considered for almost as long (as early as 1825). Both have been considered within the scope of China’s Belt and Road initiative; however, astronomical costs along with political and environmental hurdles make these likely to remain on the drawing board for some time. Finally, intermodal options have been proposed across southern Mexico (The Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec); Honduras (National Interoceanic Railway); and Nicaragua (Canal Interoceanico de Nicaragua). These also present multi-billion price tags and seek to replicate what already exists with the Panama Canal Railroad — which is owned by APM Terminals. There is no question that we live in increasingly turbulent political times. However, for the time being, it seems that we will continue to live in a world where the three main vessel routing alternatives will remain in place. Ted Prince is founder and CEO of Tri-Cities Intermodal LLC. Contact him at <a href="mailto:ted@tricitiesintermodal.com">ted@tricitiesintermodal.com</a>.</div>

Political science has been front of mind for many of us in the international maritime transportation industry as trade deals become enmeshed in tariffs and other policy matters. While the trans-Pacific remains the primary route for Asia-to-US West Coast cargo, the question of routing alternatives is at an all-time high. Starting in 2023, military activity by Houthi militants in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden targeted commercial vessels and created a direct challenge to Suez Canal transits. This route from Asia to the US East Coast had seen significant growth with the deployment of mega-vessels within alliances utilizing slow steaming. Twenty years ago, conventional wisdom established Singapore as the fulcrum for east-west deployment. It was hard to imagine that Suez services would start in China; however, that is what happened. The Houthi threat resulted in most carriers rerouting from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope around southern Africa. This added up to two weeks in transit and resulted in almost all spare capacity being absorbed. While there has been some discussion of Suez transits resuming, the political instability in Iran has caused some hesitation because of the knock-on risks to crew and cargo. The Suez route now has a theoretical challenge from the Northern Sea Route — which is estimated to be 20% to 40% shorter than the Suez. It could reduce transit time by weeks but still has significant seasonality concerns. Even summer and autumn transits require icebreaker escorts, although navigability is increasing with Arctic warming. Donald Trump’s focus on Greenland has certainly raised the stakes here. Likewise, with the Panama Canal. In his Jan. 20, 2025, inaugural address, Trump stated his intention to “take back” the Panama Canal, especially from alleged Chinese port control. That political pressure no doubt helped push CK Hutchison to arrange the sale of its extensive marine terminal portfolio to a consortium led by US investors (BlackRock/Global Infrastructure Partners, along with Mediterranean Shipping Co./Terminal Investment Limited) less than two months later for approximately $22.8 billion. Since then, political contention between the US, Panama and China has complicated the deal, so its status remains unresolved at present. Costly alternatives Among these “canal conundrums,” there is no shortage of ideas seeking to provide alternative routings: 1) The Kra (or Thai) Canal, a waterway across Thailand’s Kra Isthmus, connecting the Gulf of Thailand (Pacific Ocean) to the Andaman Sea (Indian Ocean), has been under consideration, literally for centuries. It would be bypassing the Strait of Malacca to shorten shipping routes between East Asia and the Suez Canal. 2) A canal transiting Nicaragua (Nicaragua Canal or Grand Oceanic Canal) has been considered for almost as long (as early as 1825). Both have been considered within the scope of China’s Belt and Road initiative; however, astronomical costs along with political and environmental hurdles make these likely to remain on the drawing board for some time. Finally, intermodal options have been proposed across southern Mexico (The Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec); Honduras (National Interoceanic Railway); and Nicaragua (Canal Interoceanico de Nicaragua). These also present multi-billion price tags and seek to replicate what already exists with the Panama Canal Railroad — which is owned by APM Terminals. There is no question that we live in increasingly turbulent political times. However, for the time being, it seems that we will continue to live in a world where the three main vessel routing alternatives will remain in place. Ted Prince is founder and CEO of Tri-Cities Intermodal LLC. Contact him at ted@tricitiesintermodal.com .

Geopolitical risks prompt thoughts of supply chain routing alternatives

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Monthly publication providing an editorial deep dive into global supply chain news

Journal of Commerce Magazine - Rectangle Box

Journal of Commerce Magazine

A premium access index of savings using domestic intermodal vs. OTR 

ISI Report - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Savings Index

An in-depth analysis of transport trends in the multipurpose and heavy-lift fleet segment

Breakbulk Report - Rectangle Box

Breakbulk Quarterly

An extensive dashboard of charts organized by trade lane, mode, and topic

Gateway - Rectangle Box

Gateway

Customers scoring their intermodal partners to identify the best service providers

Intermodal Service Scorecard - Rectangle Box

Intermodal Service Scorecard

A premium access outlook critical to shippers and transportation providers

QI Report - Rectangle Box

Quarterly Intelligence

The premier conference for the global container shipping and supply chain community

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Attend TPM26

The only editorially independent conference for the breakbulk & project cargo industry

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Attend Breakbulk26

The latest container shipping news and analysis of ocean container shipping, logistics, supply chains, technology solutions and end-to-end connectivity. Coverage includes the movement of containerized cargo handled by marine terminals and container ports, depots, container lines, drayage, consignees, importers and shippers, forwarders, non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOs) and off-dock warehousing providers. The Journal of Commerce's container shipping news includes news from the trans-Pacific, Asia–Europe, North America–Caribbean, Central and South America trades, and intra-Asia trades.

Asia-Europe

Container shipping news and analysis of ocean container shipping, logistics, supply chains, technology and end-to-end connectivity.

Container Shipping News | Journal of Commerce

Container Shipping News

The Journal of Commerce is the industry’s source for maritime news and analysis about ocean container shipping, logistics, supply chains, global shipping ports, shipping technology solutions and end-to-end connectivity. Coverage tracks the movement of containerized cargo — from origin to destination — handled by marine terminals in the US and abroad, depots, container ports, container lines, drayage, consignees and shippers, forwarders, non-vessel operating common carriers (NVOs) and off-dock warehousing providers, as well as pricing, capacity, volume and reliability on the trans-Pacific, Asia–Europe, North America–Caribbean, Central and South American and intra-Asia trades.

Discover comprehensive trucking news and trends with Journal of Commerce - from trucking LTL to regulation and trucking supply and demand.

Breakbulk News shipping | Journal of Commerce

Stay informed on port news worldwide with Journal of Commerce. From decarbonization to labor updates, get insights on global developments.

Port News | Journal of Commerce

News and analysis of ocean containerized cargo movement, logistics, supply chains, technology, and end-to-end connectivity. Maritime news and analysis of containerized ocean cargo movement, breakbulk and roll-on and roll-off shipping from origin to destination.

Latest News

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