<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Norfolk’s dredging to a 55-foot depth will allow ocean carriers to offer more capacity on big ships that have to load lightly due to draft constraints. </div>

Norfolk’s dredging to a 55-foot depth will allow ocean carriers to offer more capacity on big ships that have to load lightly due to draft constraints.

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<div class="phx-topic">The Port of Virginia has completed a dredging project that brings Norfolk Harbor to a 55-foot depth, making it the deepest port on the US East Coast and allowing ocean carriers to better utilize the ultra-large container vessels increasingly deployed on the coast’s long-haul services.The Virginia Port Authority said Wednesday the dredging of an additional five feet of navigable depth in its harbor was completed Feb. 28, with the remaining work on official depth soundings and updated navigation charts expected to be finished in late spring. Portions of the ship channel were also widened to allow two-way vessel traffic, with the VPA expecting a 15% improvement in ship turnover, according to a spokesperson. The dredging was part of a $1.4 billion capacity upgrade for Virginia that began in 2023. The upgrades include expansion of the port’s intermodal rail capacity and ongoing development of a new ultra-large container vessel berth on the northern side at the Norfolk International Terminal.With the expected completion of the north berth in mid-2027, Virginia will have nominal capacity of 5.8 million TEUs and be capable of handling five large ships simultaneously. VPA’s interim Chief Executive Sarah McCoy said in a statement the dredging and other expansion projects allows ocean carriers and shippers to “expand their operations and cargo volumes at the Port of Virginia without concern for outgrowing our capabilities.”At 52 feet, the Port of Charleston had been the deepest on the East Coast since 2022. The Port of New York and New Jersey, which dredged to 50 feet in 2016, is studying further dredging to a 55-foot depth. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="86fef1d5-115b-4ff1-9c1f-49d44a4182ad"></dynamic-object></div><h3>Big ships partially filled</h3>While Virginia and other East Coast ports are already handling ultra-large container vessels (ULCVs), current harbor depths put a limit on the amount of cargo space those larger ships can offer. Since last March, 599 ships over 14,000 TEU in capacity have called US East Coast ports, according to Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Those vessels have an average maximum draft of 16 meters, just over 52 feet. However, the average draft at arrival has been just under 13 meters, or 42 feet. Cargo mix and operational constraints make every vessel loading situation different. But one industry rule-of-thumb has been that every meter of loaded draft amounts to $3 million to $4 million of available cargo space. Ocean Network Express’ ULCVs have been the most frequent visitors to the East Coast, with some 149 calls over the past 12 months, followed by Evergreen Marine’s 133 ULCV calls and Zim Integrated Shipping Service’s 109, according to Sea-web data. During 2025, Virginia handled 1.47 million TEUs in loaded imports, a 5.6% drop from a year earlier, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Exports through the gateway during that time were 959,889 TEUs, a 1.5% drop from 2024.The 2.43 million TEUs in total volume, which was down 4% from 2024, made Virginia the sixth-busiest port in the US last year, according to PIERS.Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto: michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a> </div>

The Port of Virginia has completed a dredging project that brings Norfolk Harbor to a 55-foot depth, making it the deepest port on the US East Coast and allowing ocean carriers to better utilize the ultra-large container vessels increasingly deployed on the coast’s long-haul services. The Virginia Port Authority said Wednesday the dredging of an additional five feet of navigable depth in its harbor was completed Feb. 28, with the remaining work on official depth soundings and updated navigation charts expected to be finished in late spring. Portions of the ship channel were also widened to allow two-way vessel traffic, with the VPA expecting a 15% improvement in ship turnover, according to a spokesperson. The dredging was part of a $1.4 billion capacity upgrade for Virginia that began in 2023. The upgrades include expansion of the port’s intermodal rail capacity and ongoing development of a new ultra-large container vessel berth on the northern side at the Norfolk International Terminal. With the expected completion of the north berth in mid-2027, Virginia will have nominal capacity of 5.8 million TEUs and be capable of handling five large ships simultaneously. VPA’s interim Chief Executive Sarah McCoy said in a statement the dredging and other expansion projects allows ocean carriers and shippers to “expand their operations and cargo volumes at the Port of Virginia without concern for outgrowing our capabilities.” At 52 feet, the Port of Charleston had been the deepest on the East Coast since 2022. The Port of New York and New Jersey, which dredged to 50 feet in 2016, is studying further dredging to a 55-foot depth. Big ships partially filled While Virginia and other East Coast ports are already handling ultra-large container vessels (ULCVs), current harbor depths put a limit on the amount of cargo space those larger ships can offer. Since last March, 599 ships over 14,000 TEU in capacity have called US East Coast ports, according to Sea-web, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Those vessels have an average maximum draft of 16 meters, just over 52 feet. However, the average draft at arrival has been just under 13 meters, or 42 feet. Cargo mix and operational constraints make every vessel loading situation different. But one industry rule-of-thumb has been that every meter of loaded draft amounts to $3 million to $4 million of available cargo space. Ocean Network Express’ ULCVs have been the most frequent visitors to the East Coast, with some 149 calls over the past 12 months, followed by Evergreen Marine’s 133 ULCV calls and Zim Integrated Shipping Service’s 109, according to Sea-web data. During 2025, Virginia handled 1.47 million TEUs in loaded imports, a 5.6% drop from a year earlier, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Exports through the gateway during that time were 959,889 TEUs, a 1.5% drop from 2024. The 2.43 million TEUs in total volume, which was down 4% from 2024, made Virginia the sixth-busiest port in the US last year, according to PIERS. Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com

Container lines

Port infrastructure

North American ports

Virginia’s deeper harbor could allow higher usage on ULCVs

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Containers that were inbound when the war started have been plugged into reefer slots in terminals outside the Gulf, accruing mounting storage charges as cargo owners either wait for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen or start looking for new markets</div>

Containers that were inbound when the war started have been plugged into reefer slots in terminals outside the Gulf, accruing mounting storage charges as cargo owners either wait for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen or start looking for new markets

<div class="phx-topic">Düsseldorf — Cold chain shippers with containers destined for the Middle East are in a state of suspended animation with reefer boxes offloaded early at other ports in the region and no timeline on when their voyages will be able to resume through the war zone. Ocean carriers have suspended the acceptance of reefer, dangerous goods and special cargo in and out of the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia until further notice. Reefer containers that were inbound when the war started on Feb. 28 have been dropped off and plugged into reefer slots in terminals outside the Persian Gulf, accruing mounting storage charges and leaving cargo owners waiting until shipping can again pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Alternatively, cargo owners will need to start looking for new markets. One such shipper with reefers out of position is Tyson Foods. The Middle East is a major market for the global protein producer that brings in halal chicken from Brazil, but Gulf-bound reefer containers were offloaded before reaching their destination, according to Juliana Violato, Tyson’s senior manager of procurement in Europe. “In Brazil we have slowed down production because all containers that were on the water are now sitting in ports near the Gulf or in India or Singapore,” Violato told the Journal of Commerce at the Global Cold Chain Association Europe conference in Dusseldorf this week. “They will be there until they find a new trade lane that could be through Oman or Saudi Arabia, but we don’t know how or when because of the war,” she added. “What we do know is that the market is still there.” Thomas Eskesen, founder of cold chain industry consultants Eskesen Advisory, said the fate of frozen food shipments and perishables with a limited shelf life has been the number one issue for the global cold chain since the Middle East war began. “This has a massive cascading effect with equipment tied up and booking stops affecting carriers individually,” Eskesen told the Journal of Commerce. “Lots of cargo is being diverted via the Jeddah back door (in Saudi Arabia), but it is more difficult if dumped in India and Sri Lanka.” <h3>Land-based options under pressure </h3>The land options via Khor Fakkan and Fujairah in the UAE, Sohar in Oman and Jeddah that are being offered by ocean carriers and forwarders <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/rising-road-volume-puts-middle-east-land-based-options-under-pressure-6187755">are creaking under the heavy demand</a>. Port delays are growing fast, as are trucking bottlenecks, with one forwarder reporting a 20-mile line of trucks waiting to get into Dubai's Jebel Ali container port. Violato said the clock was ticking as reefers could not wait forever and new markets will need to be found if Hormuz remains unpassable “in the coming weeks,” a move that would bring its own set of problems. “There will be a decision to bring back the containers (to origin) or to sell the products in different markets,” she said. “If it's chicken breast it can be sold in Europe, and if it's dark meat it can be sold in Africa, but if the war continues, they will need to find another destination.” Kevin Marchetti, co-founder of Lineage Logistics, said although he had no customers with reefers stuck in the region, those shippers are in a difficult position as there will need to be a different solution depending on the customer, the product and the destination. ”Some of the products are pre-approved for certain markets where some traders have licences and some don’t, so it is a really complicated issue,” Marchetti said on the sidelines of the GCCA conference. “The bigger question is that you produce goods thinking you have the end markets open and the goods will just flow, but now reefers are backing up,” he added. “There is also a limited amount of equipment and although we don’t have shortages yet, people have started to talk about it.” <h3>Holding back shipments from Europe </h3>Andrew Mates, managing director of Europe for temperature-controlled warehousing and food logistics specialist Americold, said shipments from Europe to the Middle East have been held back because of the war. “Our Dubai joint venture has reported the UAE government is being very active in redirecting cargo coming in from ports in Oman and Saudi Arabia and arranging land-based routes to keep the supply chain moving,” Mates said. “But there are trucking constraints where all of a sudden containers need to go thousands of kilometers,” he added. “The UAE government realizes that if the situation stays as it is for a few more weeks, they will simply have to get products in somehow.” While exceptions are being made for critical foodstuffs, pharma and other essential goods, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-forced-to-ship-fuel-from-us-europe-as-asia-bunkers-start-to-run-dry-6184651">in a recent interview with the Journal of Commerce</a>, Maersk CCO Karsten Kildahl said that at some point “all cargo becomes urgent,” including aluminum, petrochemicals and polyethylene that are all raw materials for plastics production. Persian Gulf states import more than 90% of their goods, and while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has long been factored into their scenario planning, a long-term closure will start to hit the shelves. Another fast-developing problem is outward-bound cargo, particularly fertilizer from the Middle East that comprise around 30% of the global market and is crucial for food production, according to Violato. “If the war takes longer, we will not have fertilizer for planting and grain production will drop,” she said. “When we impact grain, we impact animal feed and protein becomes more expensive and inflation is impossible to avoid. But again, everything depends on how long the war goes on for.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Düsseldorf — Cold chain shippers with containers destined for the Middle East are in a state of suspended animation with reefer boxes offloaded early at other ports in the region and no timeline on when their voyages will be able to resume through the war zone. Ocean carriers have suspended the acceptance of reefer, dangerous goods and special cargo in and out of the UAE, Oman, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia until further notice. Reefer containers that were inbound when the war started on Feb. 28 have been dropped off and plugged into reefer slots in terminals outside the Persian Gulf, accruing mounting storage charges and leaving cargo owners waiting until shipping can again pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Alternatively, cargo owners will need to start looking for new markets. One such shipper with reefers out of position is Tyson Foods. The Middle East is a major market for the global protein producer that brings in halal chicken from Brazil, but Gulf-bound reefer containers were offloaded before reaching their destination, according to Juliana Violato, Tyson’s senior manager of procurement in Europe. “In Brazil we have slowed down production because all containers that were on the water are now sitting in ports near the Gulf or in India or Singapore,” Violato told the Journal of Commerce at the Global Cold Chain Association Europe conference in Dusseldorf this week. “They will be there until they find a new trade lane that could be through Oman or Saudi Arabia, but we don’t know how or when because of the war,” she added. “What we do know is that the market is still there.” Thomas Eskesen, founder of cold chain industry consultants Eskesen Advisory, said the fate of frozen food shipments and perishables with a limited shelf life has been the number one issue for the global cold chain since the Middle East war began. “This has a massive cascading effect with equipment tied up and booking stops affecting carriers individually,” Eskesen told the Journal of Commerce. “Lots of cargo is being diverted via the Jeddah back door (in Saudi Arabia), but it is more difficult if dumped in India and Sri Lanka.” Land-based options under pressure The land options via Khor Fakkan and Fujairah in the UAE, Sohar in Oman and Jeddah that are being offered by ocean carriers and forwarders are creaking under the heavy demand . Port delays are growing fast, as are trucking bottlenecks, with one forwarder reporting a 20-mile line of trucks waiting to get into Dubai's Jebel Ali container port. Violato said the clock was ticking as reefers could not wait forever and new markets will need to be found if Hormuz remains unpassable “in the coming weeks,” a move that would bring its own set of problems. “There will be a decision to bring back the containers (to origin) or to sell the products in different markets,” she said. “If it's chicken breast it can be sold in Europe, and if it's dark meat it can be sold in Africa, but if the war continues, they will need to find another destination.” Kevin Marchetti, co-founder of Lineage Logistics, said although he had no customers with reefers stuck in the region, those shippers are in a difficult position as there will need to be a different solution depending on the customer, the product and the destination. ”Some of the products are pre-approved for certain markets where some traders have licences and some don’t, so it is a really complicated issue,” Marchetti said on the sidelines of the GCCA conference. “The bigger question is that you produce goods thinking you have the end markets open and the goods will just flow, but now reefers are backing up,” he added. “There is also a limited amount of equipment and although we don’t have shortages yet, people have started to talk about it.” Holding back shipments from Europe Andrew Mates, managing director of Europe for temperature-controlled warehousing and food logistics specialist Americold, said shipments from Europe to the Middle East have been held back because of the war. “Our Dubai joint venture has reported the UAE government is being very active in redirecting cargo coming in from ports in Oman and Saudi Arabia and arranging land-based routes to keep the supply chain moving,” Mates said. “But there are trucking constraints where all of a sudden containers need to go thousands of kilometers,” he added. “The UAE government realizes that if the situation stays as it is for a few more weeks, they will simply have to get products in somehow.” While exceptions are being made for critical foodstuffs, pharma and other essential goods, in a recent interview with the Journal of Commerce, Maersk CCO Karsten Kildahl said that at some point “all cargo becomes urgent,” including aluminum, petrochemicals and polyethylene that are all raw materials for plastics production. Persian Gulf states import more than 90% of their goods, and while the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has long been factored into their scenario planning, a long-term closure will start to hit the shelves. Another fast-developing problem is outward-bound cargo, particularly fertilizer from the Middle East that comprise around 30% of the global market and is crucial for food production, according to Violato. “If the war takes longer, we will not have fertilizer for planting and grain production will drop,” she said. “When we impact grain, we impact animal feed and protein becomes more expensive and inflation is impossible to avoid. But again, everything depends on how long the war goes on for.” Contact Greg Knowler at  greg.knowler@spglobal.com . 

Forwarding

International ports

Maritime

Reefer shippers play waiting game with boxes stuck outside Persian Gulf

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The multi-pronged program includes reflagging four of the carrier’s container ships to the Indian registry and participating in terminal infrastructure development at Vadhavan.</div>

The multi-pronged program includes reflagging four of the carrier’s container ships to the Indian registry and participating in terminal infrastructure development at Vadhavan.

<div class="phx-topic">Hapag-Lloyd is moving to expand its business profile in India via an investment of around $1 billion in a move designed to play catch up with competitors while aligning with local regulatory changes. The German liner announced the multi-pronged growth plan on Thursday as a contingent of company executives, including CEO Rolf Habben Jansen, visited Mumbai The expansion program includes reflagging four of Hapag-Lloyd's container ships to the Indian registry and participating in terminal infrastructure development at Vadhavan, a greenfield, deepwater harbor project about 100 miles north of Mumbai, the carrier said in a statement. “India is one of the most important growth markets in global trade and a key strategic partner for Hapag-Lloyd,” Habben Jansen said. “We want to further strengthen our long-standing relationships with India and support the country’s ambitions to expand its maritime capabilities, enhance global connectivity and advance sustainable shipping.” While the carrier did not provide specifics of the flag transition, Habben Jansen said it will involve the type of tonnage suitable for short-haul trades. Hapag-Lloyd joins CMA CGM, Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Co. <a href="https://nam11.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.joc.com%2Farticle%2Fmsc-agrees-to-reflag-12-container-ships-in-india-in-diversification-push-6108526&amp;data=05%7C02%7Ckevin.saville2%40spglobal.com%7C74f5ecd618184ac0524908de85b97d44%7C8f3e36ea80394b4081a77dc0599e8645%7C1%7C0%7C639095228896173730%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=gDljRvjLsRJ%2Byz4QLEDtm5p1ez6WkLQ8sP5%2B5znWkR4%3D&amp;reserved=0">in making such a move in the Indian market.</a>Hapag-Lloyd is primed to drive projects in India linked to terminal capacity and ship recycling via its local partner JM Baxi Ports &amp; Logistics (JMBPL), which operates a clutch of marine terminals across the country, including Nhava Sheva (JNPA). The carrier holds a controlling stake in JMBPL via equity acquisitions made in stages since 2023. “India’s port and logistics infrastructure is developing at remarkable speed and scale,” said Dheeraj Bhatia, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd subsidiary Hanseatic Global Terminals. “Projects such as Vadhavan Port have the potential to significantly strengthen India’s role in global supply chains.” Meanwhile, speaking on the sidelines of a Mumbai media briefing, Habben Jansen reiterated Hapag-Lloyd’s stated position to continue operating vessels via the Cape of Good of Hope in southern Africa until the security situation in the Middle East and Red Sea region is sustainably safe. <h3>Regulatory pressures </h3>A wave of investments by liner heavyweights in India beyond port-to-port shipping comes as the industry there faces a seesaw of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/indias-renewed-protectionist-policies-threaten-foreign-liner-network-expansions-5751795">regulatory and government pressures</a>. Last month, New Delhi reversed cabotage relaxations granted to foreign-flagged vessels in 2018 for the movement of laden containers for transshipment and empty boxes for repositioning between domestic ports. The move raises cargo scalability concerns for major carriers as vessel sizes on Indian long-haul trades rapidly grow. Indian lawmakers appear firm on the revised policy implementation beginning in late April despite foreign liners strongly appealing for a review. “The [Indian] cabotage policy reversal is a major supply chain hurdle for mainline carriers,” an industry representative who didn’t want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce. “This will have a detrimental effect on transshipment trade, especially at the Vizhinjam hub [in southern India].” Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com.</a></div>

Hapag-Lloyd is moving to expand its business profile in India via an investment of around $1 billion in a move designed to play catch up with competitors while aligning with local regulatory changes. The German liner announced the multi-pronged growth plan on Thursday as a contingent of company executives, including CEO Rolf Habben Jansen, visited Mumbai The expansion program includes reflagging four of Hapag-Lloyd's container ships to the Indian registry and participating in terminal infrastructure development at Vadhavan, a greenfield, deepwater harbor project about 100 miles north of Mumbai, the carrier said in a statement. “India is one of the most important growth markets in global trade and a key strategic partner for Hapag-Lloyd,” Habben Jansen said. “We want to further strengthen our long-standing relationships with India and support the country’s ambitions to expand its maritime capabilities, enhance global connectivity and advance sustainable shipping.” While the carrier did not provide specifics of the flag transition, Habben Jansen said it will involve the type of tonnage suitable for short-haul trades. Hapag-Lloyd joins CMA CGM, Maersk and Mediterranean Shipping Co. in making such a move in the Indian market. Hapag-Lloyd is primed to drive projects in India linked to terminal capacity and ship recycling via its local partner JM Baxi Ports & Logistics (JMBPL), which operates a clutch of marine terminals across the country, including Nhava Sheva (JNPA). The carrier holds a controlling stake in JMBPL via equity acquisitions made in stages since 2023. “India’s port and logistics infrastructure is developing at remarkable speed and scale,” said Dheeraj Bhatia, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd subsidiary Hanseatic Global Terminals. “Projects such as Vadhavan Port have the potential to significantly strengthen India’s role in global supply chains.” Meanwhile, speaking on the sidelines of a Mumbai media briefing, Habben Jansen reiterated Hapag-Lloyd’s stated position to continue operating vessels via the Cape of Good of Hope in southern Africa until the security situation in the Middle East and Red Sea region is sustainably safe. Regulatory pressures A wave of investments by liner heavyweights in India beyond port-to-port shipping comes as the industry there faces a seesaw of regulatory and government pressures . Last month, New Delhi reversed cabotage relaxations granted to foreign-flagged vessels in 2018 for the movement of laden containers for transshipment and empty boxes for repositioning between domestic ports. The move raises cargo scalability concerns for major carriers as vessel sizes on Indian long-haul trades rapidly grow. Indian lawmakers appear firm on the revised policy implementation beginning in late April despite foreign liners strongly appealing for a review. “The [Indian] cabotage policy reversal is a major supply chain hurdle for mainline carriers,” an industry representative who didn’t want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce. “This will have a detrimental effect on transshipment trade, especially at the Vizhinjam hub [in southern India].” Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com.

Container Shipping News

Hapag-Lloyd to invest $1 billion across Indian maritime verticals

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Delilah’s Law, a major crackdown on immigrants in the trucking industry, was passed 35 to 26 by the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and now heads to a floor vote.</div>

Delilah’s Law, a major crackdown on immigrants in the trucking industry, was passed 35 to 26 by the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee and now heads to a floor vote.

<div class="phx-topic">The US House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee on Wednesday advanced the bill known as “Dalilah’s Law,” sending the legislation that could reshape the truckload and drayage industry to the full House for consideration. The committee’s vote to approve the legislation was 35 to 26. President Donald Trump championed the bill in his State of the Union address in late February, calling for illegal immigrants to lose their non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) while toughening standards around the English language proficiency of all drivers. The bill is named after a young girl named Dalilah Coleman of Bakersfield, California, who was critically injured in June 2024 in an accident with a tractor-trailer. The truck driver was a 20-year-old from India that the Trump administration said was in the US illegally. The legislation contains several provisions that go far beyond the scope of a Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) rule restricting non-domiciled CDLs that went into effect earlier this week which the agency estimates could remove up to 194,000 drivers from the market over five years. Still, the trucking industry <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/impact-of-non-domiciled-cdl-enforcement-splits-us-trucking-sector-6135184">is split on whether federal regulations will significantly impact trucking and drayage capacity</a> amid a more than three-year freight recession. <h3>Immediate license revocation </h3>Delilah’s Law would prevent states from issuing commercial driver’s licenses to anyone who is not a US citizen or a permanent lawful resident unless the person has a valid H-2A, H-2B or E-2 visa. States would also be required to immediately revoke CDLs of any driver who does not meet the new standards, whereas the FMCSA rule cancels non-domiciled CDLs when they are up for renewal, or when the driver next interacts with a state licensing agency. The bill would even affect US citizens who drive trucks, as it would require a mandatory 180-day recertification of all CDL holders in the US, regardless of citizenship or nationality, with all testing done in English. “I cannot understand how these licenses have been issued to people who do not write or speak English. How are these being issued?” Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) said during Wednesday’s hearing on Capitol Hill. “What happens when you get to a customer and you can’t talk to them, or you don’t know what you’re hauling? There’s a lot more than just reading road signs.” Collins said he supports the bill because the industry needs to crack down on the proliferation of so-called CDL mills that he and others say are putting unqualified men and women on the roads, jeopardizing safety. The bill has the support of more than 55 trucking, safety and transportation organizations including the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA), and the American Trucking Associations (ATA). Democrats on the committee opposed the bill because they believe it casts too wide of a net. “It reaches drivers who are lawfully present, who have complied with federal requirements and who have been working safely and consistently in this country for years, sometimes decades,” said Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.). “They will lose the ability to do the job they have trained for and relied on to support their families. There is no evidence presented here that these drivers are unsafe. This bill, as written, deeply misses the mark.” Contact Dan Ronan at <a href="mailto:contactdanronan@gmail.com">contactdanronan@gmail.com</a>.</div>

The US House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee on Wednesday advanced the bill known as “Dalilah’s Law,” sending the legislation that could reshape the truckload and drayage industry to the full House for consideration. The committee’s vote to approve the legislation was 35 to 26. President Donald Trump championed the bill in his State of the Union address in late February, calling for illegal immigrants to lose their non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) while toughening standards around the English language proficiency of all drivers. The bill is named after a young girl named Dalilah Coleman of Bakersfield, California, who was critically injured in June 2024 in an accident with a tractor-trailer. The truck driver was a 20-year-old from India that the Trump administration said was in the US illegally. The legislation contains several provisions that go far beyond the scope of a Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) rule restricting non-domiciled CDLs that went into effect earlier this week which the agency estimates could remove up to 194,000 drivers from the market over five years. Still, the trucking industry is split on whether federal regulations will significantly impact trucking and drayage capacity amid a more than three-year freight recession. Immediate license revocation Delilah’s Law would prevent states from issuing commercial driver’s licenses to anyone who is not a US citizen or a permanent lawful resident unless the person has a valid H-2A, H-2B or E-2 visa. States would also be required to immediately revoke CDLs of any driver who does not meet the new standards, whereas the FMCSA rule cancels non-domiciled CDLs when they are up for renewal, or when the driver next interacts with a state licensing agency. The bill would even affect US citizens who drive trucks, as it would require a mandatory 180-day recertification of all CDL holders in the US, regardless of citizenship or nationality, with all testing done in English. “I cannot understand how these licenses have been issued to people who do not write or speak English. How are these being issued?” Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) said during Wednesday’s hearing on Capitol Hill. “What happens when you get to a customer and you can’t talk to them, or you don’t know what you’re hauling? There’s a lot more than just reading road signs.” Collins said he supports the bill because the industry needs to crack down on the proliferation of so-called CDL mills that he and others say are putting unqualified men and women on the roads, jeopardizing safety. The bill has the support of more than 55 trucking, safety and transportation organizations including the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA), and the American Trucking Associations (ATA). Democrats on the committee opposed the bill because they believe it casts too wide of a net. “It reaches drivers who are lawfully present, who have complied with federal requirements and who have been working safely and consistently in this country for years, sometimes decades,” said Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.). “They will lose the ability to do the job they have trained for and relied on to support their families. There is no evidence presented here that these drivers are unsafe. This bill, as written, deeply misses the mark.” Contact Dan Ronan at contactdanronan@gmail.com .

Trucking News

Trucking labor

Surface

House committee advances bill targeting non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Changing market dynamics offer an opportunity for motor carriers to raise rates, but also for intermodal providers to win business from cost-conscious shippers looking to shift modes.</div>

Changing market dynamics offer an opportunity for motor carriers to raise rates, but also for intermodal providers to win business from cost-conscious shippers looking to shift modes.

<div class="phx-topic">The tightening of truckload capacity and a sharp rise in diesel prices are beginning to reset surface transportation rates in the US, giving carriers renewed leverage while opening a potential growth opportunity for intermodal rail. Crackdowns on <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/impact-of-non-domiciled-cdl-enforcement-splits-us-trucking-sector-6135184">non-domiciled commercial drivers</a> and stricter English-language enforcement are constraining truckload capacity after a four-year freight recession. Meanwhile, diesel prices have surged to their highest level since late 2022 amid the war with Iran, lifting transportation costs for all and forcing shippers to reassess their budgets. It has started a cascading effect across domestic US transportation. Brokers and asset-based truckload carriers are rejecting freight and insisting on renegotiating contract rates, while shippers facing blown transportation budgets consider cheaper options such as intermodal rail. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="f7dc31b8-1e1c-4a59-907f-2391c69d4e9f"></dynamic-object></div>Early signs of that repricing are already evident. Spot truckload rates are up between 15% and 20% from a year ago, according to DAT Freight &amp; Analytics, even as freight demand remains muted amid elevated interest rates, a lackluster housing market, and mixed signals from the US industrial sector. “Not only are you seeing elevated rates across other modalities such as flatbed, but in the overall dry-van market, you’re seeing 14%, 15% tender rejections coming out of the slowest freight month of the year,” said Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer for RXO, a non-asset broker, speaking at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference on Tuesday. As recently as last year, tender rejections were at or less than 5%, according to Weisfeld. <h3>Regulatory tightening reinforces supply constraint </h3>The supply side could tighten further as new federal regulations take hold. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FCMSA) enacted a rule earlier this week restricting non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs), a move the agency estimates could remove up to 194,000 drivers over five years. On Wednesday, the US House of Representatives advanced “Delilah’s Law,” which would accelerate enforcement over non-domiciled CDLs by retroactively invalidating certain licenses, rather than waiting for a non-domiciled CDL holder to interact with state licensing agencies. Despite higher rates, fleets have been cautious about adding capacity, even though stricter emissions regulations in 2027 will increase the purchase price of a new truck. “Our customers are more middle- to smaller-sized [carriers], and I think there’s still a lot of hesitation on that side to make the decisions,” said Cristina Gallo-Aquino, CFO of Ryder Systems, speaking at the J.P. Morgan event. “We are pointing it all out to them to show them how much of a price increase could be coming ... but we haven’t really seen the shift to make a decision and preorder.” <h3>Fuel surge amplifies pricing pressure </h3>Diesel prices averaged $5.07 per gallon last week, according to the US Energy Information Administration, the highest since November 2022 and adding another layer of cost pressure across the truckload market. On the spot market, where rates are often negotiated on an all-in basis, the increase is squeezing owner-operators and smaller carriers that cannot pass through fuel costs. That dynamic may cause more capacity to exit the truckload sector. In the contract market, larger asset-based carriers pass through higher fuel costs via surcharges. Since March 1, the average surcharge has risen nearly 20 cents per mile, although methodologies vary. For shippers, the result is sticker shock on invoices and a renewed focus on lower-cost alternatives such as rail. “For the intermodal space, it starts to put pressure on truck rates, which is a pretty good thing for us,” Mark George, CEO of Norfolk Southern, said at the J.P. Morgan event. “We’ve been pretty depressed [price-wise] for a while. We’d love to see some evacuation of capacity in trucking.” Intermodal providers are already prepared for that shift. Darren Field, president of intermodal at J.B. Hunt Transport Services, said the company is actively engaging with shippers looking to manage rising transportation costs. “How can we convert business from the highway back to intermodal, or to intermodal for the first time to hopefully save you a little money and prepare your budget for a year where truckload capacity and prices could get difficult for you,” Field said at the J.P. Morgan conference. “How can you hedge against the potential for a cost increase coming at your budget as a shipper by utilizing more intermodal?” But capturing that opportunity will depend on execution. Railroads must maintain service reliability even as volumes rise, a lesson of the pandemic when congestion and labor shortages left intermodal with a lingering stigma among some shippers. Service metrics suggest the industry has made progress. In a Journal of Commerce survey conducted late last year, 91.3% of respondents said they were satisfied with domestic intermodal service, up from 45.3% in the spring of 2023. Whether that improvement holds under renewed demand may determine how much freight ultimately shifts modes. Shippers, having experienced pandemic-era disruptions, are unlikely to tolerate a repeat. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The tightening of truckload capacity and a sharp rise in diesel prices are beginning to reset surface transportation rates in the US, giving carriers renewed leverage while opening a potential growth opportunity for intermodal rail. Crackdowns on non-domiciled commercial drivers and stricter English-language enforcement are constraining truckload capacity after a four-year freight recession. Meanwhile, diesel prices have surged to their highest level since late 2022 amid the war with Iran, lifting transportation costs for all and forcing shippers to reassess their budgets. It has started a cascading effect across domestic US transportation. Brokers and asset-based truckload carriers are rejecting freight and insisting on renegotiating contract rates, while shippers facing blown transportation budgets consider cheaper options such as intermodal rail. Early signs of that repricing are already evident. Spot truckload rates are up between 15% and 20% from a year ago, according to DAT Freight & Analytics, even as freight demand remains muted amid elevated interest rates, a lackluster housing market, and mixed signals from the US industrial sector. “Not only are you seeing elevated rates across other modalities such as flatbed, but in the overall dry-van market, you’re seeing 14%, 15% tender rejections coming out of the slowest freight month of the year,” said Jared Weisfeld, chief strategy officer for RXO, a non-asset broker, speaking at the J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference on Tuesday. As recently as last year, tender rejections were at or less than 5%, according to Weisfeld. Regulatory tightening reinforces supply constraint The supply side could tighten further as new federal regulations take hold. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FCMSA) enacted a rule earlier this week restricting non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs), a move the agency estimates could remove up to 194,000 drivers over five years. On Wednesday, the US House of Representatives advanced “Delilah’s Law,” which would accelerate enforcement over non-domiciled CDLs by retroactively invalidating certain licenses, rather than waiting for a non-domiciled CDL holder to interact with state licensing agencies. Despite higher rates, fleets have been cautious about adding capacity, even though stricter emissions regulations in 2027 will increase the purchase price of a new truck. “Our customers are more middle- to smaller-sized [carriers], and I think there’s still a lot of hesitation on that side to make the decisions,” said Cristina Gallo-Aquino, CFO of Ryder Systems, speaking at the J.P. Morgan event. “We are pointing it all out to them to show them how much of a price increase could be coming ... but we haven’t really seen the shift to make a decision and preorder.” Fuel surge amplifies pricing pressure Diesel prices averaged $5.07 per gallon last week, according to the US Energy Information Administration, the highest since November 2022 and adding another layer of cost pressure across the truckload market. On the spot market, where rates are often negotiated on an all-in basis, the increase is squeezing owner-operators and smaller carriers that cannot pass through fuel costs. That dynamic may cause more capacity to exit the truckload sector. In the contract market, larger asset-based carriers pass through higher fuel costs via surcharges. Since March 1, the average surcharge has risen nearly 20 cents per mile, although methodologies vary. For shippers, the result is sticker shock on invoices and a renewed focus on lower-cost alternatives such as rail. “For the intermodal space, it starts to put pressure on truck rates, which is a pretty good thing for us,” Mark George, CEO of Norfolk Southern, said at the J.P. Morgan event. “We’ve been pretty depressed [price-wise] for a while. We’d love to see some evacuation of capacity in trucking.” Intermodal providers are already prepared for that shift. Darren Field, president of intermodal at J.B. Hunt Transport Services, said the company is actively engaging with shippers looking to manage rising transportation costs. “How can we convert business from the highway back to intermodal, or to intermodal for the first time to hopefully save you a little money and prepare your budget for a year where truckload capacity and prices could get difficult for you,” Field said at the J.P. Morgan conference. “How can you hedge against the potential for a cost increase coming at your budget as a shipper by utilizing more intermodal?” But capturing that opportunity will depend on execution. Railroads must maintain service reliability even as volumes rise, a lesson of the pandemic when congestion and labor shortages left intermodal with a lingering stigma among some shippers. Service metrics suggest the industry has made progress. In a Journal of Commerce survey conducted late last year, 91.3% of respondents said they were satisfied with domestic intermodal service, up from 45.3% in the spring of 2023. Whether that improvement holds under renewed demand may determine how much freight ultimately shifts modes. Shippers, having experienced pandemic-era disruptions, are unlikely to tolerate a repeat. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Rail News

Truckload

Capacity cuts, fuel shocks provide openings for trucking and rail

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The most disruptive energy shock in modern history has reawakened the debate over whether emergency fuel surcharges are a fair way for ocean carriers to recoup unexpected costs or blatant “double-dipping” that angers shippers.</div>

The most disruptive energy shock in modern history has reawakened the debate over whether emergency fuel surcharges are a fair way for ocean carriers to recoup unexpected costs or blatant “double-dipping” that angers shippers.

<div class="phx-topic">The speed and severity of the jump in global oil prices amid the war in the Middle East have reignited long-standing suspicions by cargo owners that fuel surcharges levied by ocean carriers are used as a revenue stream rather than a cost recovery mechanism. Container lines defend the fees, ranging from $30 to $300 per TEU depending on the trade lane, arguing that what is widely seen as the most significant energy shock in history has forced them to recoup costs with fees beyond the lagging quarterly bunker adjustment factor (BAF). Bunker fuel prices contribute approximately 15% to 30% of operating costs, depending on the year, according to various container line financial reports.And while the traditional linkage between fuel costs and BAFs has fractured due to the rapid escalation of the war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Vizion analysis, shippers nonetheless are retaining a cynical view of the emergency fuel surcharges. “Shipping lines always seem to manage to turn a crisis into a cash-grab,” was the blunt message from James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum. “This apparent ‘double-dipping’ brings the whole sordid practice of surcharging into further disrepute.” Emergency bunker adjustment factors (EBAFs) on top of quarterly fuel price adjustments to recover costs in what is a core operational expense were acceptable for the current contract period ending March 26, said Antonios Rigalos, managing partner of shipper network ShiftX. But going forward, increased bunker costs should be recovered by the quarterly BAF review, he noted.“The BAF reviews executed for Q3 will reflect the higher bunker costs for the previous quarter [March/April/May], and an EBAF plus BAF review would create a double charging of customers,” Rigalos said. “While we understand the situation of carriers and that increased bunker costs have a big impact that somehow needs to be recovered, it needs to be carried out in a fair way and not by double charging BCOs [beneficial cargo owners] and clients.” Several carriers have announced emergency bunker fuel surcharges on top of quarterly fuel price adjustments to recover costs in what is a core operational expense, but the moves have sparked growing concern from shippers. An Asia-Europe shipper based in Hong Kong said he negotiated contracts based on the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) that covers both BAF and EBAF surcharges. “We adjust the bunker fuel surcharge bi-monthly and as far as we are concerned, we will fight any additional emergency fuel surcharge from the carriers,” the source said. <h3>Long hauls hit with surcharges </h3>CMA CGM this week announced an upward review of its “emergency fuel surcharge” imposed on March 16 that will increase from $150 per TEU to $265/TEU on all long-haul trade lanes. OOCL said it will impose a temporary emergency bunker surcharge (EBS) from March 23 to manage global challenges to fuel availability because the increased costs are “beyond the scope of existing fuel cost recovery and low sulfur adjustment mechanisms.” Cosco Shipping has also announced emergency bunker surcharges on various trades between Europe, South America and Africa, while Mediterranean Shipping Co. introduced a temporary emergency bunker surcharge on March 16 that varies from $30/TEU to $300/TEU depending on the trade lane. Maersk on March 10 announced it would implement an emergency bunker surcharge of $200/TEU on all long hauls “to safeguard cargo integrity and maintain the stability of our network.” “This surcharge covers the impact of fuel availability, cost and mix outside of what is covered in our fossil fuel fee [FFF],” the carrier said in a statement. “This means we are better positioned to have the necessary access to fuel and the ability to move it to necessary locations.” Maersk CCO Karsten Kildahl said the carrier was being forced to take the unprecedented step of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/maersk-forced-to-ship-fuel-from-us-europe-as-asia-bunkers-start-to-run-dry-6184651">filling ships with fuel in the US and Europe and transferring the bunkers to vessels in Asia as supplies at bunkering hubs dried up</a>. Most of the emergency fuel surcharges will be reviewed by carriers every two weeks, but with the Strait of Hormuz — through which about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies move each day — out of bounds to commercial shipping, there is little chance the EBAF will be dropped anytime soon. The speed with which the fuel surcharges were imposed by carriers made it “nigh on impossible” for shippers to recover costs from their own customers or suppliers, Hookham told the Journal of Commerce. “For smaller businesses, that cash flow hit can be fatal when payments are likely to be late due to late or non-delivery of cargo,” he said, noting that the number of surcharges being introduced made it difficult for shippers to track which ones applied to their shipments. “The US got it right when the [Federal Maritime Commission] <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fmc-says-closely-monitoring-carrier-rate-moves-tied-to-middle-east-war-6184781">required 30-day notice periods</a> before surcharges could take effect on US services,” Hookham said. “The current surcharging behavior will only hasten demands for similar notice periods to become mandatory worldwide.” <h3>Fractured fuel links </h3>While carriers roll out their fuel surcharges to try to recover rising costs, freight tracking platform Vizion believes the traditional linkage between fuel costs and BAFs has fractured due to the rapid escalation of the war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In a recent review of bunker surcharges, Vizion noted that average very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) prices of $535 per metric ton in 2025 were down 14.4% year over year, the lowest since 2020, with BAF contributing just 10% to 20% to total freight costs. The launch of US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 triggered a 73% fuel price spike to $939/metric ton in under two weeks, and carriers within days responded with emergency surcharges of $60/TEU to $190/TEU, far faster than standard quarterly BAF adjustments. That shows the traditional BAF fuel-price correlation has weakened as carriers shift to emergency mechanisms to manage extreme volatility, according to Vizion. But Vizion said a deeper trend was emerging with a market fracture in progress as carriers divided into two camps: immediate risk transfer versus contract stability. Carriers such as Maersk initially absorbed the volatility to protect long-term contract relationships, although the carrier has subsequently announced an emergency fuel surcharge. A more aggressive strategy was taken by MSC and CMA CGM, with both adopting a rapid pass-through of fuel spikes to protect their margins immediately. Shippers with locked-in rates will enjoy a short-term cost advantage, but it will be a temporary relief before fuel adjustments hit. Vizion warned that over the next three to six months, shippers can expect aggressive second-quarter BAF corrections to capture the remaining fuel cost delta. Chantal McRoberts, director and head of advisory at Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, said shippers understand they will pay an increased fuel cost in the third quarter as that is part of the BAF policy that enables carriers to recover fuel costs over time. “The concern around the introduction of EBAF is the potential for double recovery,” McRoberts told the Journal of Commerce. “In practice, a shipper may pay an EBAF during Q2 to reflect higher fuel prices and then see its underlying BAF increase in Q3 as the formula catches up with those same Q2 fuel costs. At that point, the EBAF risks becoming revenue‑generating rather than purely cost‑recovering. “This is the dilemma currently facing shippers,” she added. “As a result, those operating under transparent, formula‑based BAF mechanisms are, in many cases, pushing back on EBAF charges.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The speed and severity of the jump in global oil prices amid the war in the Middle East have reignited long-standing suspicions by cargo owners that fuel surcharges levied by ocean carriers are used as a revenue stream rather than a cost recovery mechanism. Container lines defend the fees, ranging from $30 to $300 per TEU depending on the trade lane, arguing that what is widely seen as the most significant energy shock in history has forced them to recoup costs with fees beyond the lagging quarterly bunker adjustment factor (BAF). Bunker fuel prices contribute approximately 15% to 30% of operating costs, depending on the year, according to various container line financial reports. And while the traditional linkage between fuel costs and BAFs has fractured due to the rapid escalation of the war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Vizion analysis, shippers nonetheless are retaining a cynical view of the emergency fuel surcharges. “Shipping lines always seem to manage to turn a crisis into a cash-grab,” was the blunt message from James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum. “This apparent ‘double-dipping’ brings the whole sordid practice of surcharging into further disrepute.” Emergency bunker adjustment factors (EBAFs) on top of quarterly fuel price adjustments to recover costs in what is a core operational expense were acceptable for the current contract period ending March 26, said Antonios Rigalos, managing partner of shipper network ShiftX. But going forward, increased bunker costs should be recovered by the quarterly BAF review, he noted. “The BAF reviews executed for Q3 will reflect the higher bunker costs for the previous quarter [March/April/May], and an EBAF plus BAF review would create a double charging of customers,” Rigalos said. “While we understand the situation of carriers and that increased bunker costs have a big impact that somehow needs to be recovered, it needs to be carried out in a fair way and not by double charging BCOs [beneficial cargo owners] and clients.” Several carriers have announced emergency bunker fuel surcharges on top of quarterly fuel price adjustments to recover costs in what is a core operational expense, but the moves have sparked growing concern from shippers. An Asia-Europe shipper based in Hong Kong said he negotiated contracts based on the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) that covers both BAF and EBAF surcharges. “We adjust the bunker fuel surcharge bi-monthly and as far as we are concerned, we will fight any additional emergency fuel surcharge from the carriers,” the source said. Long hauls hit with surcharges CMA CGM this week announced an upward review of its “emergency fuel surcharge” imposed on March 16 that will increase from $150 per TEU to $265/TEU on all long-haul trade lanes. OOCL said it will impose a temporary emergency bunker surcharge (EBS) from March 23 to manage global challenges to fuel availability because the increased costs are “beyond the scope of existing fuel cost recovery and low sulfur adjustment mechanisms.” Cosco Shipping has also announced emergency bunker surcharges on various trades between Europe, South America and Africa, while Mediterranean Shipping Co. introduced a temporary emergency bunker surcharge on March 16 that varies from $30/TEU to $300/TEU depending on the trade lane. Maersk on March 10 announced it would implement an emergency bunker surcharge of $200/TEU on all long hauls “to safeguard cargo integrity and maintain the stability of our network.” “This surcharge covers the impact of fuel availability, cost and mix outside of what is covered in our fossil fuel fee [FFF],” the carrier said in a statement. “This means we are better positioned to have the necessary access to fuel and the ability to move it to necessary locations.” Maersk CCO Karsten Kildahl said the carrier was being forced to take the unprecedented step of filling ships with fuel in the US and Europe and transferring the bunkers to vessels in Asia as supplies at bunkering hubs dried up . Most of the emergency fuel surcharges will be reviewed by carriers every two weeks, but with the Strait of Hormuz — through which about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies move each day — out of bounds to commercial shipping, there is little chance the EBAF will be dropped anytime soon. The speed with which the fuel surcharges were imposed by carriers made it “nigh on impossible” for shippers to recover costs from their own customers or suppliers, Hookham told the Journal of Commerce. “For smaller businesses, that cash flow hit can be fatal when payments are likely to be late due to late or non-delivery of cargo,” he said, noting that the number of surcharges being introduced made it difficult for shippers to track which ones applied to their shipments. “The US got it right when the [Federal Maritime Commission] required 30-day notice periods before surcharges could take effect on US services,” Hookham said. “The current surcharging behavior will only hasten demands for similar notice periods to become mandatory worldwide.” Fractured fuel links While carriers roll out their fuel surcharges to try to recover rising costs, freight tracking platform Vizion believes the traditional linkage between fuel costs and BAFs has fractured due to the rapid escalation of the war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In a recent review of bunker surcharges, Vizion noted that average very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) prices of $535 per metric ton in 2025 were down 14.4% year over year, the lowest since 2020, with BAF contributing just 10% to 20% to total freight costs. The launch of US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 triggered a 73% fuel price spike to $939/metric ton in under two weeks, and carriers within days responded with emergency surcharges of $60/TEU to $190/TEU, far faster than standard quarterly BAF adjustments. That shows the traditional BAF fuel-price correlation has weakened as carriers shift to emergency mechanisms to manage extreme volatility, according to Vizion. But Vizion said a deeper trend was emerging with a market fracture in progress as carriers divided into two camps: immediate risk transfer versus contract stability. Carriers such as Maersk initially absorbed the volatility to protect long-term contract relationships, although the carrier has subsequently announced an emergency fuel surcharge. A more aggressive strategy was taken by MSC and CMA CGM, with both adopting a rapid pass-through of fuel spikes to protect their margins immediately. Shippers with locked-in rates will enjoy a short-term cost advantage, but it will be a temporary relief before fuel adjustments hit. Vizion warned that over the next three to six months, shippers can expect aggressive second-quarter BAF corrections to capture the remaining fuel cost delta. Chantal McRoberts, director and head of advisory at Drewry Supply Chain Advisors, said shippers understand they will pay an increased fuel cost in the third quarter as that is part of the BAF policy that enables carriers to recover fuel costs over time. “The concern around the introduction of EBAF is the potential for double recovery,” McRoberts told the Journal of Commerce. “In practice, a shipper may pay an EBAF during Q2 to reflect higher fuel prices and then see its underlying BAF increase in Q3 as the formula catches up with those same Q2 fuel costs. At that point, the EBAF risks becoming revenue‑generating rather than purely cost‑recovering. “This is the dilemma currently facing shippers,” she added. “As a result, those operating under transparent, formula‑based BAF mechanisms are, in many cases, pushing back on EBAF charges.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

War reignites tussle between ocean carriers, cargo owners over fuel surcharges

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Southern California’s traditional solutions to surging freight volumes ignore the fact that they might well have reached the limits of being effective, writes Ted Prince.</div>

Southern California’s traditional solutions to surging freight volumes ignore the fact that they might well have reached the limits of being effective, writes Ted Prince.

<div class="phx-topic">The Journal of Commerce’s TPM conference has completed another big show in Long Beach. And while most attendees were living with the lingering impacts of the Trump administration’s tariff policy, we were all faced with the added geopolitical suspense brought about by the US and Israeli strikes on Iran that commenced as TPM attendees arrived. While this drama played out, I thought back to Michelle Phillips of the Mamas and the Papas eating a banana during a 1967 performance of “California Dreamin’” on the Ed Sullivan Show. This was to protest the band being forced to lip-sync rather than perform live. Just as the protest distracted from the singing, war and tariffs effectively blocked out any consideration of how California is planning to handle current volumes, let alone a doubling by 2050. Traditionally, this has meant bemoaning California’s “socialist state” – albeit with the fourth- or fifth-largest economy in the world. There is no shortage of issues. California Air Resources Board (CARB) rules on advanced clean trucks and advanced clean fleets impact freight transportation by mandating a transition to zero-emission trucks over time. These are on top of previous diesel tractor emission and “clean” diesel truck regulations. CARB has also adopted policies to reduce emissions from marine terminals and at-berth ship emissions. In addition, the harbor drayage community continues to deal with the AB5 legislation dealing with worker classification. Much like tariffs, all of these are subject to conflicting interpretations with the federal government. And, on a global level, confusion reigns over the International Maritime Organization’s net-zero framework. But the list of greatest hits being lip-synched is much larger. Let’s roll the tape. <h3>Will projects become reality? </h3>The Port of Long Beach continues to talk up its Pier B Rail expansion. But this project doesn’t solve the problem of destination disaggregation. Assembling less-than-fully loaded stack cars to a plethora of destinations actually cannibalizes doublestack linehaul economics. (This network scope vs. scale issue is also pertinent in the current transcontinental railroad debate.) The Port of Los Angeles has its own multi-billion-dollar long shot — Pier 500. Given its configuration, the most realistic method to handle bigger, next-generation cargo ships is to make it an adjunct to APMT’s Pier 400 — and obviate the need to replicate gates, buildings and on-dock-rail. Otherwise, there simply isn’t enough land short of container levitation. The Barstow International Gateway (BIG) is BNSF’s planned inland intermodal and logistics complex. It is still in the environmental review and permitting stage. I am sure that BNSF hopes it progresses better than its current Phoenix project, which is even more ambitious than BIG. BNSF’s need for BIG is no doubt driven by previous Southern California failures: passing on the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility (ICTF) and failing to garner approval for the Southern California Intermodal Gateway (SCIG.) Part of BIG’s value proposition is that distribution centers will locate there because traffic will be processed using zero- and near-zero emission cargo-handling equipment. However, getting new or upgraded electric service in the Inland Empire has proven problematic, so a clear trajectory of electrified warehouse space cannot be assumed. Further north, the Wonderful Logistics Center has a SeaCube Cold Solutions container depot already supporting local refrigerated exporters; however, the planned international rail shuttle linking Shafter to the Port of Los Angeles using BNSF is still under development. Whereas BIG is a many-to-one network, this is more complicated because traffic is not transitive and it is one-to-many. (Pesky car utilization issues again.) Also, refrigerated produce is a much more complicated rail transportation product than dry imports. Meanwhile, the Mojave Inland Port remains a proposed, private development that has not progressed beyond county-level approvals in 2022. Perhaps the issue is that there does not appear to be a sustainable desire to build distribution centers in the middle of a desert. For decades, Southern California has held itself out to be the answer to the impending freight tsunami. Yet a focus on more-of-the-same traditional solutions ignores the fact that these might well have reached their limits. Otherwise, the greatest hits lip-synching will continue, and we may be reminded that “banana” can come to stand for Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything.” In that case, the global supply chain will need to sing a new song. Ted Prince is founder and CEO of Tri-Cities Intermodal LLC. Contact him at <a href="mailto:ted@tricitiesintermodal.com">ted@tricitiesintermodal.com.</a></div>

The Journal of Commerce’s TPM conference has completed another big show in Long Beach. And while most attendees were living with the lingering impacts of the Trump administration’s tariff policy, we were all faced with the added geopolitical suspense brought about by the US and Israeli strikes on Iran that commenced as TPM attendees arrived. While this drama played out, I thought back to Michelle Phillips of the Mamas and the Papas eating a banana during a 1967 performance of “California Dreamin’” on the Ed Sullivan Show. This was to protest the band being forced to lip-sync rather than perform live. Just as the protest distracted from the singing, war and tariffs effectively blocked out any consideration of how California is planning to handle current volumes, let alone a doubling by 2050. Traditionally, this has meant bemoaning California’s “socialist state” – albeit with the fourth- or fifth-largest economy in the world. There is no shortage of issues. California Air Resources Board (CARB) rules on advanced clean trucks and advanced clean fleets impact freight transportation by mandating a transition to zero-emission trucks over time. These are on top of previous diesel tractor emission and “clean” diesel truck regulations. CARB has also adopted policies to reduce emissions from marine terminals and at-berth ship emissions. In addition, the harbor drayage community continues to deal with the AB5 legislation dealing with worker classification. Much like tariffs, all of these are subject to conflicting interpretations with the federal government. And, on a global level, confusion reigns over the International Maritime Organization’s net-zero framework. But the list of greatest hits being lip-synched is much larger. Let’s roll the tape. Will projects become reality? The Port of Long Beach continues to talk up its Pier B Rail expansion. But this project doesn’t solve the problem of destination disaggregation. Assembling less-than-fully loaded stack cars to a plethora of destinations actually cannibalizes doublestack linehaul economics. (This network scope vs. scale issue is also pertinent in the current transcontinental railroad debate.) The Port of Los Angeles has its own multi-billion-dollar long shot — Pier 500. Given its configuration, the most realistic method to handle bigger, next-generation cargo ships is to make it an adjunct to APMT’s Pier 400 — and obviate the need to replicate gates, buildings and on-dock-rail. Otherwise, there simply isn’t enough land short of container levitation. The Barstow International Gateway (BIG) is BNSF’s planned inland intermodal and logistics complex. It is still in the environmental review and permitting stage. I am sure that BNSF hopes it progresses better than its current Phoenix project, which is even more ambitious than BIG. BNSF’s need for BIG is no doubt driven by previous Southern California failures: passing on the Intermodal Container Transfer Facility (ICTF) and failing to garner approval for the Southern California Intermodal Gateway (SCIG.) Part of BIG’s value proposition is that distribution centers will locate there because traffic will be processed using zero- and near-zero emission cargo-handling equipment. However, getting new or upgraded electric service in the Inland Empire has proven problematic, so a clear trajectory of electrified warehouse space cannot be assumed. Further north, the Wonderful Logistics Center has a SeaCube Cold Solutions container depot already supporting local refrigerated exporters; however, the planned international rail shuttle linking Shafter to the Port of Los Angeles using BNSF is still under development. Whereas BIG is a many-to-one network, this is more complicated because traffic is not transitive and it is one-to-many. (Pesky car utilization issues again.) Also, refrigerated produce is a much more complicated rail transportation product than dry imports. Meanwhile, the Mojave Inland Port remains a proposed, private development that has not progressed beyond county-level approvals in 2022. Perhaps the issue is that there does not appear to be a sustainable desire to build distribution centers in the middle of a desert. For decades, Southern California has held itself out to be the answer to the impending freight tsunami. Yet a focus on more-of-the-same traditional solutions ignores the fact that these might well have reached their limits. Otherwise, the greatest hits lip-synching will continue, and we may be reminded that “banana” can come to stand for Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anything.” In that case, the global supply chain will need to sing a new song. Ted Prince is founder and CEO of Tri-Cities Intermodal LLC. Contact him at ted@tricitiesintermodal.com.

Supply chain

Are SoCal’s planned freight projects a matter of ‘California Dreamin’’?

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Record fleet expansion, widening scale disparities, and lingering financial reserves have combined to create a rare window in which transformative deals among ocean carriers are both feasible and strategically rational.</div>

Record fleet expansion, widening scale disparities, and lingering financial reserves have combined to create a rare window in which transformative deals among ocean carriers are both feasible and strategically rational.

<div class="phx-topic">Debate over consolidation in the container shipping industry has persisted for decades. Advocates argue that the sector has long been fragmented, and that further consolidation is essential to improve financial resilience, operational efficiency, and long-term sustainability. Critics counter that consolidation concentrates pricing power in the hands of a few large players, potentially leading to higher freight rates and reduced competition. In my personal experience, the industry’s structural cyclicality has changed little over time. Freight rate movements in recent months suggest that competitive pressure remains intense, both within alliances and between independent carriers. Indeed, competition is likely to increase over the next three to five years as new vessel capacity enters the market. However, the competitive landscape itself has shifted dramatically. The global container ship order book currently stands at more than 35% of the existing fleet — an unprecedented level. At the same time, the four largest carriers — Mediterranean Shipping Co., CMA CGM, Maersk and Cosco — have taken decisive steps to widen the gap between themselves and the rest of the industry. Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd has strengthened its position as a clear number five, extending its lead over mid-tier competitors such as Ocean Network Express, Evergreen, HMM and PIL. (Industry data sources include Drewry and Clarksons Research.) Shipping is a low-margin, capital-intensive business where scale matters enormously. Larger fleets enable lower unit costs, stronger purchasing power, and more efficient network deployment, yet there are limits to what alliances alone can deliver. Alliances primarily provide network coordination and slot sharing; they do not generate the full cost synergies available through unified ownership structures. True economies of scale typically come from either expanding fleets organically or pursuing mergers and acquisitions. Of the two, M&amp;A offers the additional advantage of organizational synergies — streamlined management, consolidated procurement, integrated IT platforms, and rationalized overhead — that alliances cannot replicate. This raises an important question: Why is consolidation particularly relevant now? In cyclical industries such as container shipping, mergers rarely occur at market peaks. When profits are strong, shareholder expectations rise, valuations expand and forward multiples make transactions difficult to justify. Conversely, consolidation tends to occur during downturns or when markets are transitioning toward weaker conditions. That transition phase appears to be underway today. <h3>COVID-era profits provide ‘window of opportunity’ for carriers </h3>Many carriers still retain significant liquidity accumulated during the extraordinary profitability of the COVID-19 era boom. These financial reserves provide a unique window of opportunity. Companies can invest in strategic partnerships or acquisitions while still maintaining operational stability and customer confidence. They also have the resources needed to execute careful integrations that are critical to preserving service quality and avoiding customer disruption. If carriers wait several years, those reserves may be eroded by weaker freight markets, rising costs, or capital expenditures tied to fleet renewal and decarbonization requirements. The mid-tier segment of the industry presents multiple potential merger candidates. Historically, national interests have complicated cross-border consolidation, as governments often view shipping lines as strategic assets tied to trade security and economic policy. Yet recent developments suggest that such barriers are not insurmountable. Hapag-Lloyd’s proposed acquisition of Zim demonstrates that creative structures can address national security concerns while still enabling industrial consolidation. The ability to design tailored governance or ownership arrangements may unlock additional transactions that once seemed politically impossible. Customers, too, have a stake in consolidation, perhaps more than is commonly recognized. Over time, a more consolidated industry can produce greater stability. Previous downturns, including those in 2001, 2009 and 2016, revealed how financially distressed carriers can disrupt supply chains. When shipping lines suffer sustained losses, they often resort to abrupt service cancellations, capacity withdrawals, and large-scale blank sailings. These measures create uncertainty for shippers, ports, logistics providers, and equipment lessors. Most of us vividly remember the collapse of Hanjin Shipping. Its bankruptcy triggered widespread cargo disruptions, stranded containers, port congestion and financial losses across the logistics ecosystem. Such systemic shocks underscore the broader economic value of financially stronger carriers. Consolidation, if executed in a timely manner, can reduce the likelihood of extreme distress events by improving cost structures and balance sheet resilience. <h3>‘Pivotal moment’ </h3>To reassure the skeptics, we can rest assured that competition authorities will continue to monitor market concentration carefully, and customers will demand tangible service improvements rather than promises of efficiency. Nevertheless, the strategic logic is compelling. The container shipping industry stands at a pivotal moment. Record fleet expansion, widening scale disparities, and lingering financial reserves combine to create a rare window in which transformative deals are both feasible and strategically rational. Delaying action could mean missing that window, as market conditions tighten and financial flexibility declines. For carriers, investors and customers alike, timely consolidation offers the prospect of a more stable and sustainable industry. In a sector long defined by volatility, that outcome should be in everyone’s interest. Robbert van Trooijen, founder and president of Inception Partners and a McKinsey consultant, had a 33-year tenure with The Nedlloyd Group, P&amp;O Nedlloyd and the Maersk Group. Contact him at <a href="mailto:robbert@inceptionpartners.org">robbert@inceptionpartners.org</a>. </div>

Debate over consolidation in the container shipping industry has persisted for decades. Advocates argue that the sector has long been fragmented, and that further consolidation is essential to improve financial resilience, operational efficiency, and long-term sustainability. Critics counter that consolidation concentrates pricing power in the hands of a few large players, potentially leading to higher freight rates and reduced competition. In my personal experience, the industry’s structural cyclicality has changed little over time. Freight rate movements in recent months suggest that competitive pressure remains intense, both within alliances and between independent carriers. Indeed, competition is likely to increase over the next three to five years as new vessel capacity enters the market. However, the competitive landscape itself has shifted dramatically. The global container ship order book currently stands at more than 35% of the existing fleet — an unprecedented level. At the same time, the four largest carriers — Mediterranean Shipping Co., CMA CGM, Maersk and Cosco — have taken decisive steps to widen the gap between themselves and the rest of the industry. Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd has strengthened its position as a clear number five, extending its lead over mid-tier competitors such as Ocean Network Express, Evergreen, HMM and PIL. (Industry data sources include Drewry and Clarksons Research.) Shipping is a low-margin, capital-intensive business where scale matters enormously. Larger fleets enable lower unit costs, stronger purchasing power, and more efficient network deployment, yet there are limits to what alliances alone can deliver. Alliances primarily provide network coordination and slot sharing; they do not generate the full cost synergies available through unified ownership structures. True economies of scale typically come from either expanding fleets organically or pursuing mergers and acquisitions. Of the two, M&A offers the additional advantage of organizational synergies — streamlined management, consolidated procurement, integrated IT platforms, and rationalized overhead — that alliances cannot replicate. This raises an important question: Why is consolidation particularly relevant now? In cyclical industries such as container shipping, mergers rarely occur at market peaks. When profits are strong, shareholder expectations rise, valuations expand and forward multiples make transactions difficult to justify. Conversely, consolidation tends to occur during downturns or when markets are transitioning toward weaker conditions. That transition phase appears to be underway today. COVID-era profits provide ‘window of opportunity’ for carriers Many carriers still retain significant liquidity accumulated during the extraordinary profitability of the COVID-19 era boom. These financial reserves provide a unique window of opportunity. Companies can invest in strategic partnerships or acquisitions while still maintaining operational stability and customer confidence. They also have the resources needed to execute careful integrations that are critical to preserving service quality and avoiding customer disruption. If carriers wait several years, those reserves may be eroded by weaker freight markets, rising costs, or capital expenditures tied to fleet renewal and decarbonization requirements. The mid-tier segment of the industry presents multiple potential merger candidates. Historically, national interests have complicated cross-border consolidation, as governments often view shipping lines as strategic assets tied to trade security and economic policy. Yet recent developments suggest that such barriers are not insurmountable. Hapag-Lloyd’s proposed acquisition of Zim demonstrates that creative structures can address national security concerns while still enabling industrial consolidation. The ability to design tailored governance or ownership arrangements may unlock additional transactions that once seemed politically impossible. Customers, too, have a stake in consolidation, perhaps more than is commonly recognized. Over time, a more consolidated industry can produce greater stability. Previous downturns, including those in 2001, 2009 and 2016, revealed how financially distressed carriers can disrupt supply chains. When shipping lines suffer sustained losses, they often resort to abrupt service cancellations, capacity withdrawals, and large-scale blank sailings. These measures create uncertainty for shippers, ports, logistics providers, and equipment lessors. Most of us vividly remember the collapse of Hanjin Shipping. Its bankruptcy triggered widespread cargo disruptions, stranded containers, port congestion and financial losses across the logistics ecosystem. Such systemic shocks underscore the broader economic value of financially stronger carriers. Consolidation, if executed in a timely manner, can reduce the likelihood of extreme distress events by improving cost structures and balance sheet resilience. ‘Pivotal moment’ To reassure the skeptics, we can rest assured that competition authorities will continue to monitor market concentration carefully, and customers will demand tangible service improvements rather than promises of efficiency. Nevertheless, the strategic logic is compelling. The container shipping industry stands at a pivotal moment. Record fleet expansion, widening scale disparities, and lingering financial reserves combine to create a rare window in which transformative deals are both feasible and strategically rational. Delaying action could mean missing that window, as market conditions tighten and financial flexibility declines. For carriers, investors and customers alike, timely consolidation offers the prospect of a more stable and sustainable industry. In a sector long defined by volatility, that outcome should be in everyone’s interest. Robbert van Trooijen, founder and president of Inception Partners and a McKinsey consultant, had a 33-year tenure with The Nedlloyd Group, P&O Nedlloyd and the Maersk Group. Contact him at robbert@inceptionpartners.org .

In wake of Zim deal, the time for industry consolidation is now

Singapore

Port Klang

Colombo

Portcast reports on port congestion by processing and analyzing rich automatic identification system (AIS) data to determine vessels’ behavior and speed on the way to a given destination port and generate a congestion index for each port. The congestion tracker includes ships that do not have estimated times of arrival or are waiting at anchorage and uses multiple human-monitored data sources to make corrections around outliers. [Portcast](https://portcast.io/solutions/port-congestion-tracker)

South Asia port harbor performance (Portcast)

Southeast Asia harbor congestion number of vessels waiting (Portcast) Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">After a pause in trans-Pacific service contract negotiations caused by the war in the Middle East, talks are expected to move forward now that the largest US retailer has concluded some of its agreements.</div>

After a pause in trans-Pacific service contract negotiations caused by the war in the Middle East, talks are expected to move forward now that the largest US retailer has concluded some of its agreements.

<div class="phx-topic">Container lines that paused trans-Pacific service contract talks to assess the impact of the war in the Middle East are back at the table, and expectations are that major retailers will sign in the coming week now that Walmart has finalized its 2026–27 contracts with a half-dozen carriers. Walmart’s move opens the door for other major retailers and, in turn, smaller importers and then non-vessel operating common carriers to ink their own service contracts, which typically go into effect May 1. Despite the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/china-india-warn-carriers-on-higher-pricing-tied-to-middle-east-conflict-6183986">unknowns in terms of length and scope of the now two-week-long Middle East war</a>, carriers say big-box retailers want to lock in vessel capacity. Walmart, <a href="">the largest US importer</a>, has wrapped up its contract discussions with its core carriers, two sources familiar with the matter told the Journal of Commerce.  Carriers, and some forwarders, are urging customers to move expeditiously in their contract negotiations, rather than allowing uncertainties in global trade to deter them. “We now have seen an unpredictable shock to the global ocean market in like four of the last six years,” a carrier executive who asked not to be named told the Journal of Commerce. “Some BCOs [beneficial cargo owners] recognized that and wanted to take risk off the table; they signed early and at higher rates than many were predicting.” The executive added that analyst forecasts of supply and demand have rarely matched reality in recent years due to that outsized volatility. Geopolitical events including diversions away from the Red Sea, unpredictable US tariff policy and even more weather events, impacting ocean reliability, have begun to shift some shippers’ thinking, he said. “Some shippers have come to realize that pushing carriers well below breakeven to save a few cents on their cost of goods is not worth the risk of a major unpredictable event happening,” the executive said. <h3>Recouping higher fuel costs </h3>While securing space remains paramount for cargo owners, rising bunker fuel prices, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/fmc-says-closely-monitoring-carrier-rate-moves-tied-to-middle-east-war-6184781">is also driving contract discussions regarding bunker fuel adjustment factors</a>. Shippers are reluctant to compensate carriers for the rising operating costs tied to the Middle East on a trade lane that is not directly impacted. “The uncertainty and waiting around for clarity or resolution is not helpful to anyone,” said Kevin Parkerson, a consultant and former logistics manager at retailers. “Yes, it may impact overall capacity. Yes, it may impact fuel prices. But at this point, that shouldn’t delay the process of contracting. Everybody seems to be proceeding cautiously.” At the moment, securing capacity in the Asia-US West Coast trade is not a significant issue that would slow negotiations. “Asia to the West Coast will be fine,” a second carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce, noting that if the war in the Middle East drags on for some weeks, East Coast routings from the Indian sub-continent could be impacted by the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/waves-of-diverted-containers-swamping-middle-east-ports-6183989">congestion that is already building at some ports in the region</a>. In the interim, most importers would be wise to secure the minimum quantity commitments in their contracts as soon as they have a handle on what their space requirements will be, a third carrier executive said. “Those BCOs who are slow-walking their negotiations to wait for better prices — it may backfire,” the executive said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Container lines that paused trans-Pacific service contract talks to assess the impact of the war in the Middle East are back at the table, and expectations are that major retailers will sign in the coming week now that Walmart has finalized its 2026–27 contracts with a half-dozen carriers. Walmart’s move opens the door for other major retailers and, in turn, smaller importers and then non-vessel operating common carriers to ink their own service contracts, which typically go into effect May 1. Despite the unknowns in terms of length and scope of the now two-week-long Middle East war , carriers say big-box retailers want to lock in vessel capacity. Walmart,  the largest US importer , has wrapped up its contract discussions with its core carriers, two sources familiar with the matter told the Journal of Commerce.   Carriers, and some forwarders, are urging customers to move expeditiously in their contract negotiations, rather than allowing uncertainties in global trade to deter them. “We now have seen an unpredictable shock to the global ocean market in like four of the last six years,” a carrier executive who asked not to be named told the Journal of Commerce. “Some BCOs [beneficial cargo owners] recognized that and wanted to take risk off the table; they signed early and at higher rates than many were predicting.” The executive added that analyst forecasts of supply and demand have rarely matched reality in recent years due to that outsized volatility. Geopolitical events including diversions away from the Red Sea, unpredictable US tariff policy and even more weather events, impacting ocean reliability, have begun to shift some shippers’ thinking, he said. “Some shippers have come to realize that pushing carriers well below breakeven to save a few cents on their cost of goods is not worth the risk of a major unpredictable event happening,” the executive said. Recouping higher fuel costs While securing space remains paramount for cargo owners, rising bunker fuel prices, driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is also driving contract discussions regarding bunker fuel adjustment factors . Shippers are reluctant to compensate carriers for the rising operating costs tied to the Middle East on a trade lane that is not directly impacted. “The uncertainty and waiting around for clarity or resolution is not helpful to anyone,” said Kevin Parkerson, a consultant and former logistics manager at retailers. “Yes, it may impact overall capacity. Yes, it may impact fuel prices. But at this point, that shouldn’t delay the process of contracting. Everybody seems to be proceeding cautiously.”  At the moment, securing capacity in the Asia-US West Coast trade is not a significant issue that would slow negotiations. “Asia to the West Coast will be fine,” a second carrier executive told the Journal of Commerce, noting that if the war in the Middle East drags on for some weeks, East Coast routings from the Indian sub-continent could be impacted by the congestion that is already building at some ports in the region . In the interim, most importers would be wise to secure the minimum quantity commitments in their contracts as soon as they have a handle on what their space requirements will be, a third carrier executive said. “Those BCOs who are slow-walking their negotiations to wait for better prices — it may backfire,” the executive said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at  bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Trans-Pacific

Trans-Pacific contract talks accelerating after Walmart signs

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Meridian Speedway dispute is important because it’s one of the primary routes where a combined Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern railroad would look to take market share from truckload. </div>

The Meridian Speedway dispute is important because it’s one of the primary routes where a combined Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern railroad would look to take market share from truckload.

<div class="phx-topic">The US Surface Transportation Board (STB) will not intervene in a dispute over the Meridian Speedway, a critical intermodal route connecting the West Coast to the US Southeast where three railroads must team up to execute service. The unanimous ruling, issued Friday, culminates more than six months of arguing between Union Pacific Railroad, Norfolk Southern Railway, and Canadian Pacific Kansas City. CPKC applauded the decision that "exemplifies behavior typical of Union Pacific attempting to bully its way," in a statement. UP, expressing disappointment in the system, told the Journal of Commerce that Canadian Pacific changed operations and service on the line when it acquired Kanas City Southern, but UP also said it was moving on post-decision.The dispute boiled over last summer when FedEx and UPS trucked cargo around the stretch of track to bypass the disruptions. The two parcel giants lean on the railroads to move parcels across the US and impose stringent requirements for on-time performance in their service agreements. The Meridian Speedway, a nearly 300-mile stretch between Louisiana and Mississippi, is a joint venture in which CPKC controls 70% and Norfolk Southern controls the remaining 30%. CPKC oversees dispatching and operations. The Meridian Speedway slashes more than three days between Los Angeles and Atlanta compared with going through Memphis. The dispute centers around CPKC’s decision to restrict train lengths to 8,500 feet, while UP and NS prefer trains that are 11,000 feet long. UP argues the restriction forces them to break up the containers into two different blocks, and CPKC provides substandard service on the second train. CPKC counters that most of the sidings — akin to the shoulder of a highway — are not long enough to handle an 11,000-foot train. When there is a conflict between two trains, the CPKC train is often the one stopped for hours at a time to let the 11,000-foot UP train pass. In an unanimous decision, though, the STB decided not to intervene. “As CPKC notes, the increased dwell of UP’s ‘second train’ could also be attributable to an agreement between CPKC and [Norfolk Southern] that the second train would be scheduled to depart four hours and forty minutes after the first,” STB wrote in the ruling. “Given these facts, there are not sufficient indicia that the conditions the Board imposed in the CP/KCS merger approval are implicated by the increased dwell at UP’s Hollywood Yard.” NS filed a complaint last October but eventually reached an agreement with CPKC and dropped the cast. Last month, however, UP filed a new complaint, citing increased dwell times for the containers going on the second train. UP asked the board to launch an investigation. The Meridian Speedway is a lynchpin to the pending UP-NS transaction before regulators, a route identified as critical to converting more than 1.17 million truckloads to intermodal over three years. However, UP’s application also called for running 11,000-foot trains, the very length that is at the heart of the dispute. Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The US Surface Transportation Board (STB) will not intervene in a dispute over the Meridian Speedway, a critical intermodal route connecting the West Coast to the US Southeast where three railroads must team up to execute service. The unanimous ruling, issued Friday, culminates more than six months of arguing between Union Pacific Railroad, Norfolk Southern Railway, and Canadian Pacific Kansas City. CPKC applauded the decision that "exemplifies behavior typical of Union Pacific attempting to bully its way," in a statement. UP, expressing disappointment in the system, told the Journal of Commerce that Canadian Pacific changed operations and service on the line when it acquired Kanas City Southern, but UP also said it was moving on post-decision. The dispute boiled over last summer when FedEx and UPS trucked cargo around the stretch of track to bypass the disruptions. The two parcel giants lean on the railroads to move parcels across the US and impose stringent requirements for on-time performance in their service agreements. The Meridian Speedway, a nearly 300-mile stretch between Louisiana and Mississippi, is a joint venture in which CPKC controls 70% and Norfolk Southern controls the remaining 30%. CPKC oversees dispatching and operations. The Meridian Speedway slashes more than three days between Los Angeles and Atlanta compared with going through Memphis. The dispute centers around CPKC’s decision to restrict train lengths to 8,500 feet, while UP and NS prefer trains that are 11,000 feet long. UP argues the restriction forces them to break up the containers into two different blocks, and CPKC provides substandard service on the second train. CPKC counters that most of the sidings — akin to the shoulder of a highway — are not long enough to handle an 11,000-foot train. When there is a conflict between two trains, the CPKC train is often the one stopped for hours at a time to let the 11,000-foot UP train pass. In an unanimous decision, though, the STB decided not to intervene. “As CPKC notes, the increased dwell of UP’s ‘second train’ could also be attributable to an agreement between CPKC and [Norfolk Southern] that the second train would be scheduled to depart four hours and forty minutes after the first,” STB wrote in the ruling. “Given these facts, there are not sufficient indicia that the conditions the Board imposed in the CP/KCS merger approval are implicated by the increased dwell at UP’s Hollywood Yard.” NS filed a complaint last October but eventually reached an agreement with CPKC and dropped the cast. Last month, however, UP filed a new complaint, citing increased dwell times for the containers going on the second train. UP asked the board to launch an investigation. The Meridian Speedway is a lynchpin to the pending UP-NS transaction before regulators, a route identified as critical to converting more than 1.17 million truckloads to intermodal over three years. However, UP’s application also called for running 11,000-foot trains, the very length that is at the heart of the dispute. Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

North-American rail

Intermodal providers

STB declines to intervene on Meridian Speedway dispute

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">An estimated 30% of Asia-Europe air cargo capacity is routed via the Middle East, and with options through the region severely constrained by the US-Iran war, a rush for Asia-Europe air cargo capacity is pushing up prices. </div>

An estimated 30% of Asia-Europe air cargo capacity is routed via the Middle East, and with options through the region severely constrained by the US-Iran war, a rush for Asia-Europe air cargo capacity is pushing up prices.

<div class="phx-topic">Shippers of Asia-Europe air cargo are being hit with a double whammy of rapidly rising freight rates and soaring fuel surcharges as Middle East cargo gets rerouted, China picks up production after Lunar New Year and jet fuel prices double. An estimated 30% of Asia-Europe air cargo is routed via the Middle East, and with options through the region severely constrained by the ongoing US-Iran war, a rush for Asia-Europe air cargo capacity is pushing up rates with hefty fuel surcharges rolled out on top. Niall van de Wouw, air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said dynamic load factors on the Asia-Europe trade lane rose to 86% last week, up from 80% in the week prior. “That makes it overall a very tight market that will require some creativity to find spare capacity,” he said, but he warned that solutions will come at a price. Ray Zedov, an analyst at Rotate, said some forwarders were employing the creative and costly option of moving cargo from Asia to Europe in the bellies of passenger planes via North America, which was a clear indication there was not enough direct Asia-Europe capacity available. “This routing via North America will be quite expensive given that trans-Pacific carriers were already full on the eastbound routes prior to the war,” he said. While data from Freightos shows spot rates on China-Europe are up about 13% compared with last week, the rates from South Asia to Europe have increased 82% since before the war started. The Baltic Air Index had Singapore outbound rates up 47.6% last week compared with the previous week as Middle East airspace closures drove diversions from Gulf hubs to Asian gateways, tightening capacity. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said rates climbed sharply following the outbreak of war and the airspace closures, but in the last few days prices have leveled off on many lanes. “That may reflect some capacity recovery by Emirates, as well as Etihad, or the addition of direct Asia-Europe capacity by European airlines and carriers from the Far East,” he said. Several freighter operators and integrators have repositioned capacity to serve growing demand on Asia-Europe markets, but a protracted regional conflict could see rates climb even higher. “If this continues, we will see increases of 100% to 200% on the short-term market,” Van de Wouw noted. “In fact, I am picking up anecdotal evidence that this is already happening in selected markets.” <h3>Limited flight availability via Middle East </h3>The war is entering its third week and flights from international carriers remain suspended to the region’s busiest airports of Abu Dhabi, Amman, Bahrain, Doha, Dubai and Tel Aviv. UAE carriers Emirates and Etihad are operating limited flights to the regional hubs of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and Qatar Cargo, the region’s largest air freight carrier, is not flying in or out of its home base of Doha where Qatari airspace remains closed. Qatar Cargo is the largest air freight operator in the Gulf with a 5.9% share of global capacity, Emirates Skycargo second with 4.9% and Etihad holding a 1.5% share of global capacity, data from air cargo analyst Rotate shows. Total capacity to and from the Middle Eastern airports affected by the US-Iran war is down 90% compared with normal pre-war levels. South Asian origins in particular are heavily dependent on capacity via the Gulf, said Frederic Horst, managing director for Australia-based Trade and Transport Group. He told the Journal of Commerce that 35% of all Indian freight traffic and 46% of cargo traffic from Pakistan and Bangladesh were routed via the Persian Gulf. Kathy Liu, vice president of global sales and marketing at Dimerco Express Group, said with limited opportunity to ship via the main Gulf airports, the market was looking for direct flights from Asia into Europe or services that fly via Asian hubs. “As factories re-open after Chinese New Year, we will see cargo using Middle East carriers in the past moving to Asian hubs including Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Japan,” she told the Journal of Commerce. “That will impact on the first leg of capacity from origins into those hubs and that will squeeze capacity for intra-Asia and trans-Pacific eastbound,” she added. <h3>Fuel surcharges on the rise </h3>Airlines are reviewing their fuel surcharges weekly instead of every month as the war-driven spike in prices piles additional cost on top of what is already a significant portion of a carrier’s expenses. Cathay Pacific’s cargo fuel surcharge will increase from HK$3.20 ($0.41)/kg on March 19 to HK$12.9 ($1.65)/kg from March 20. Lufthansa Cargo raised its air freight surcharge from €0.85 ($0.97)/kg to €1.20 ($1.27)/kg, effective March 16, while IAG Cargo has hedged more than 60% of its fuel for 2026 and has not announced any new fuel surcharge. Jet fuel typically accounts for 20% to 30% of an airline’s total cost base, and with international carriers forced to fly longer distances to avoid Middle East conflict zones with reduced payloads, those costs are mounting fast. “Airspace restrictions or routing adjustments may require airlines to operate longer flight paths between global hubs, increasing fuel demand at a time when supply conditions are already tight,” global forwarder Logfret said in a market update. “This combination of supply constraints and operational adjustments has intensified cost pressures across both passenger and cargo aviation sectors.” Maersk told customers in an advisory Friday that its fuel surcharges will be reviewed on a weekly basis and adjusted in line with developments in aviation fuel prices, based on established market indexes. For contract renewals where no fuel surcharge mechanism is in place, Maersk has proposed that 15% of the rate is allocated to fuel. “At the same time, the evolving situation is placing pressure on global air freight capacity and routing options,” Maersk noted. “As a result, Maersk Air Freight will apply a transit disruption surcharge in respect of the additional costs associated with securing capacity, rerouting shipments and maintaining service continuity on affected operations.” <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/as-war-rages-multimodal-demand-surges-on-asia-europe-landbridge-6185162">Demand is also growing for multimodal alternatives</a>, with road freight being used to move cargo from Asia to Europe and between transport hubs in the Middle East as an alternative to air. Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

Shippers of Asia-Europe air cargo are being hit with a double whammy of rapidly rising freight rates and soaring fuel surcharges as Middle East cargo gets rerouted, China picks up production after Lunar New Year and jet fuel prices double. An estimated 30% of Asia-Europe air cargo is routed via the Middle East, and with options through the region severely constrained by the ongoing US-Iran war, a rush for Asia-Europe air cargo capacity is pushing up rates with hefty fuel surcharges rolled out on top. Niall van de Wouw, air freight officer at rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, said dynamic load factors on the Asia-Europe trade lane rose to 86% last week, up from 80% in the week prior. “That makes it overall a very tight market that will require some creativity to find spare capacity,” he said, but he warned that solutions will come at a price. Ray Zedov, an analyst at Rotate, said some forwarders were employing the creative and costly option of moving cargo from Asia to Europe in the bellies of passenger planes via North America, which was a clear indication there was not enough direct Asia-Europe capacity available. “This routing via North America will be quite expensive given that trans-Pacific carriers were already full on the eastbound routes prior to the war,” he said. While data from Freightos shows spot rates on China-Europe are up about 13% compared with last week, the rates from South Asia to Europe have increased 82% since before the war started. The Baltic Air Index had Singapore outbound rates up 47.6% last week compared with the previous week as Middle East airspace closures drove diversions from Gulf hubs to Asian gateways, tightening capacity. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, said rates climbed sharply following the outbreak of war and the airspace closures, but in the last few days prices have leveled off on many lanes. “That may reflect some capacity recovery by Emirates, as well as Etihad, or the addition of direct Asia-Europe capacity by European airlines and carriers from the Far East,” he said. Several freighter operators and integrators have repositioned capacity to serve growing demand on Asia-Europe markets, but a protracted regional conflict could see rates climb even higher. “If this continues, we will see increases of 100% to 200% on the short-term market,” Van de Wouw noted. “In fact, I am picking up anecdotal evidence that this is already happening in selected markets.” Limited flight availability via Middle East The war is entering its third week and flights from international carriers remain suspended to the region’s busiest airports of Abu Dhabi, Amman, Bahrain, Doha, Dubai and Tel Aviv. UAE carriers Emirates and Etihad are operating limited flights to the regional hubs of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and Qatar Cargo, the region’s largest air freight carrier, is not flying in or out of its home base of Doha where Qatari airspace remains closed. Qatar Cargo is the largest air freight operator in the Gulf with a 5.9% share of global capacity, Emirates Skycargo second with 4.9% and Etihad holding a 1.5% share of global capacity, data from air cargo analyst Rotate shows. Total capacity to and from the Middle Eastern airports affected by the US-Iran war is down 90% compared with normal pre-war levels. South Asian origins in particular are heavily dependent on capacity via the Gulf, said Frederic Horst, managing director for Australia-based Trade and Transport Group. He told the Journal of Commerce that 35% of all Indian freight traffic and 46% of cargo traffic from Pakistan and Bangladesh were routed via the Persian Gulf. Kathy Liu, vice president of global sales and marketing at Dimerco Express Group, said with limited opportunity to ship via the main Gulf airports, the market was looking for direct flights from Asia into Europe or services that fly via Asian hubs. “As factories re-open after Chinese New Year, we will see cargo using Middle East carriers in the past moving to Asian hubs including Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Japan,” she told the Journal of Commerce. “That will impact on the first leg of capacity from origins into those hubs and that will squeeze capacity for intra-Asia and trans-Pacific eastbound,” she added. Fuel surcharges on the rise Airlines are reviewing their fuel surcharges weekly instead of every month as the war-driven spike in prices piles additional cost on top of what is already a significant portion of a carrier’s expenses. Cathay Pacific’s cargo fuel surcharge will increase from HK$3.20 ($0.41)/kg on March 19 to HK$12.9 ($1.65)/kg from March 20. Lufthansa Cargo raised its air freight surcharge from €0.85 ($0.97)/kg to €1.20 ($1.27)/kg, effective March 16, while IAG Cargo has hedged more than 60% of its fuel for 2026 and has not announced any new fuel surcharge. Jet fuel typically accounts for 20% to 30% of an airline’s total cost base, and with international carriers forced to fly longer distances to avoid Middle East conflict zones with reduced payloads, those costs are mounting fast. “Airspace restrictions or routing adjustments may require airlines to operate longer flight paths between global hubs, increasing fuel demand at a time when supply conditions are already tight,” global forwarder Logfret said in a market update. “This combination of supply constraints and operational adjustments has intensified cost pressures across both passenger and cargo aviation sectors.” Maersk told customers in an advisory Friday that its fuel surcharges will be reviewed on a weekly basis and adjusted in line with developments in aviation fuel prices, based on established market indexes. For contract renewals where no fuel surcharge mechanism is in place, Maersk has proposed that 15% of the rate is allocated to fuel. “At the same time, the evolving situation is placing pressure on global air freight capacity and routing options,” Maersk noted. “As a result, Maersk Air Freight will apply a transit disruption surcharge in respect of the additional costs associated with securing capacity, rerouting shipments and maintaining service continuity on affected operations.” Demand is also growing for multimodal alternatives , with road freight being used to move cargo from Asia to Europe and between transport hubs in the Middle East as an alternative to air. Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

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Asia-Europe air cargo space tightens as rates, fuel surcharges soar

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While the logistical hurdles of sending cargo to the region are more of an inconvenience at this point for US exporters rather than a full-blown crisis, shippers see a bigger risk in the war’s longevity and the downstream effect of higher oil prices.</div>

While the logistical hurdles of sending cargo to the region are more of an inconvenience at this point for US exporters rather than a full-blown crisis, shippers see a bigger risk in the war’s longevity and the downstream effect of higher oil prices.

<div class="phx-topic">US exporters are scrambling to locate containers they have shipped to the Middle East but were subsequently dropped off at unknown ports after ocean carriers were forced to halt almost all services due to the war with Iran. While the logistical hurdles for Middle East cargo are more of an inconvenience at this point for US exporters rather than a full-blown crisis, shippers see a bigger risk in the war’s longevity and the downstream effect of higher oil prices. Mediterranean Shipping Co. invoked an “end of voyage” clause this week on exports into Jebel Ali in Dubai, allowing the carrier to discharge containers at the next available port on the ship’s rotation, forwarders tell the Journal of Commerce. The end-of-voyage clause also includes an $800 surcharge. Stephen Zambo, president of third-party logistics provider AGL Group, said he has about 70 containers on the water with MSC destined for the Middle East. He is now figuring out where the next port of call will be for those boxes and bracing his customers for more costs and delays due to the redirections. Along with those containers, AGL has three containers on the ONE Majesty that was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. Although the vessel suffered some damage, Zambo was told the ship would continue its original voyage. “We’re having to figure out each day what’s going on and what we need to do,” Zambo said. “It’s like it’s been over the last two years with tariffs and other crises, sort of wait-and-see how things play out and act accordingly.” MSC handles about half the container volumes from the US to the Middle East each year, which amounts to about 290,000 TEUs, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. Maersk and CMA CGM are the second- and third-busiest carriers on that trade lane. Tim Avanzato, director of global logistics for paper and plastic products maker Lanca Sales, told the Journal of Commerce there’s little risk of that US export cargo backing up at ports, as most of it can be sold to other markets. However, the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting surge in oil prices is concerning because that raises the cost of the products that Lanca Sales distributes. Water and hygiene services company Ecolab imposed a 10% to 14% energy surcharge on its products on Wednesday due to crude oil futures rising to over $100 per barrel. “The Mideast situation is more of an inconvenience at this point,” Avanzato said. “But the fallout if this goes on for weeks? It’s a catastrophe.” Zambo said there are other markets that US exporters can tap. But some products such as certain softwoods are milled specifically for Middle East markets. “The lumber producers are now trying to figure out what to do with the product they have,” he said. Higher oil prices have also resulted in escalating fuel surcharges for all trades. Zambo said he has been in discussions about shipping trans-Atlantic cargo into the US, but carriers have been unwilling to commit to rates due to the surge in fuel prices. <h3>Reviewing new routes </h3>The director of global logistics for a Houston-based chemicals company told the Journal of Commerce he is expecting his iso-tanks onboard MSC vessels destined for Jebel Ali to land in India now due to the end-of-voyage clause. He is now looking at new routes outside of the Middle East’s main port. CMA CGM, which last week suspended all Middle East bookings, on Wednesday reopened bookings for alternative ports such as the UAE’s Khor Fakkan or Oman’s Sohar port, which sit outside of the Strait of Hormuz. CMA CGM is also offering service to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Jeddah <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/as-war-rages-multimodal-demand-surges-on-asia-europe-landbridge-6185162">and trucking cargo from there</a>. But Jeddah would also involve transiting the Red Sea, which raises the risk of a potential attack by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels. The source said the regional risk is such that MSC has also suspended bookings into Israel’s Haifa, leaving Zim Integrated Shipping Services as the only carrier to service that port. MSC’s suspension of Haifa service could not be independently confirmed. “The Red Sea is a mess,” the executive said. “I have no confidence it will get there.” He added that he’s looking to move containers to Egypt’s Port Said, a transshipment hub outside of the immediate warzone at the northern end of the Suez Canal on the Mediterranean Sea. Outside of servicing his customers, the source said his main concern now is how the oil price spike will play out for the economy. The cost of intermediate chemicals from the Middle East, including ammonia and cyclo-hexane, has jumped, resulting in further cost pressures for his own company’s products. “Fuel costs are going to kill everybody,” he said. “That’s the wildcard.” Contact Michael Angell at <a href="mailto:michael.angell@spglobal.com">michael.angell@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US exporters are scrambling to locate containers they have shipped to the Middle East but were subsequently dropped off at unknown ports after ocean carriers were forced to halt almost all services due to the war with Iran. While the logistical hurdles for Middle East cargo are more of an inconvenience at this point for US exporters rather than a full-blown crisis, shippers see a bigger risk in the war’s longevity and the downstream effect of higher oil prices. Mediterranean Shipping Co. invoked an “end of voyage” clause this week on exports into Jebel Ali in Dubai, allowing the carrier to discharge containers at the next available port on the ship’s rotation, forwarders tell the Journal of Commerce. The end-of-voyage clause also includes an $800 surcharge. Stephen Zambo, president of third-party logistics provider AGL Group, said he has about 70 containers on the water with MSC destined for the Middle East. He is now figuring out where the next port of call will be for those boxes and bracing his customers for more costs and delays due to the redirections. Along with those containers, AGL has three containers on the ONE Majesty that was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. Although the vessel suffered some damage, Zambo was told the ship would continue its original voyage. “We’re having to figure out each day what’s going on and what we need to do,” Zambo said. “It’s like it’s been over the last two years with tariffs and other crises, sort of wait-and-see how things play out and act accordingly.” MSC handles about half the container volumes from the US to the Middle East each year, which amounts to about 290,000 TEUs, according to PIERS, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Maersk and CMA CGM are the second- and third-busiest carriers on that trade lane. Tim Avanzato, director of global logistics for paper and plastic products maker Lanca Sales, told the Journal of Commerce there’s little risk of that US export cargo backing up at ports, as most of it can be sold to other markets. However, the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting surge in oil prices is concerning because that raises the cost of the products that Lanca Sales distributes. Water and hygiene services company Ecolab imposed a 10% to 14% energy surcharge on its products on Wednesday due to crude oil futures rising to over $100 per barrel. “The Mideast situation is more of an inconvenience at this point,” Avanzato said. “But the fallout if this goes on for weeks? It’s a catastrophe.” Zambo said there are other markets that US exporters can tap. But some products such as certain softwoods are milled specifically for Middle East markets. “The lumber producers are now trying to figure out what to do with the product they have,” he said. Higher oil prices have also resulted in escalating fuel surcharges for all trades. Zambo said he has been in discussions about shipping trans-Atlantic cargo into the US, but carriers have been unwilling to commit to rates due to the surge in fuel prices. Reviewing new routes The director of global logistics for a Houston-based chemicals company told the Journal of Commerce he is expecting his iso-tanks onboard MSC vessels destined for Jebel Ali to land in India now due to the end-of-voyage clause. He is now looking at new routes outside of the Middle East’s main port. CMA CGM, which last week suspended all Middle East bookings, on Wednesday reopened bookings for alternative ports such as the UAE’s Khor Fakkan or Oman’s Sohar port, which sit outside of the Strait of Hormuz. CMA CGM is also offering service to Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port of Jeddah and trucking cargo from there . But Jeddah would also involve transiting the Red Sea, which raises the risk of a potential attack by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels. The source said the regional risk is such that MSC has also suspended bookings into Israel’s Haifa, leaving Zim Integrated Shipping Services as the only carrier to service that port. MSC’s suspension of Haifa service could not be independently confirmed. “The Red Sea is a mess,” the executive said. “I have no confidence it will get there.” He added that he’s looking to move containers to Egypt’s Port Said, a transshipment hub outside of the immediate warzone at the northern end of the Suez Canal on the Mediterranean Sea. Outside of servicing his customers, the source said his main concern now is how the oil price spike will play out for the economy. The cost of intermediate chemicals from the Middle East, including ammonia and cyclo-hexane, has jumped, resulting in further cost pressures for his own company’s products. “Fuel costs are going to kill everybody,” he said. “That’s the wildcard.” Contact Michael Angell at michael.angell@spglobal.com .

Trans-Atlantic

US exports to Middle East in limbo amid war zone service disruptions

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With the flow of waterborne oil suspended in the Strait of Hormuz, reports out of China say suppliers are rationing fuel in anticipation of growing shortages, while bunkering centers such as Salalah in Oman are no longer able to fulfil orders. </div>

With the flow of waterborne oil suspended in the Strait of Hormuz, reports out of China say suppliers are rationing fuel in anticipation of growing shortages, while bunkering centers such as Salalah in Oman are no longer able to fulfil orders.

<div class="phx-topic">The disruption to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing Maersk to take the unprecedented step of filling ships with fuel in the US and Europe and transferring the bunkers to vessels in Asia, the carrier’s chief commercial officer said Wednesday. Karsten Kildahl told the Journal of Commerce in an interview that in the past two days, several of Maersk’s bunker suppliers in key areas in the Middle East and Asia have been unable to refuel the carrier’s vessels. “We’ve had to start moving oil around ourselves because we don’t have enough supplies where we need them,” Kildahl said. “In Asia, nearly half of their supplies come from the Gulf area, so some of the vessels leaving the US and Europe are filled with as much oil as we possibly can, and then we transport the fuel to other vessels we connect with in Asia.” About one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and refined products — 20 million barrels per day — is exported via the Strait of Hormuz, but that slowed to a trickle after the US and Israel began air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. More than 10 ships have been attacked since the war started, and soaring war risk insurance is keeping most commercial shipping out of the region, including oil tankers. With the flow of waterborne oil suspended, reports out of China say suppliers are rationing fuel in anticipation of growing shortages, while bunkering centers such as Salalah in Oman are no longer able to fulfil fuel orders, Kildahl said. “Salalah is one of our main bunker ports in the Gulf, but we’ve not been able to bunker there for the past two days, so we need to transfer bunkers from one place to another,” he said. “The main concern right now is how do we safeguard the supply of oil?” <h3>Tanker chartering not an option </h3>Chartering a tanker to transport oil to where it is needed was not an option, Kildahl said, with available vessels in short supply. “In the short term, we have started bunkering in less efficient locations with a higher cost and more difficult logistics behind it, and over time we will have to significantly beef this up if [the war drags on],” he warned. “That is where you will have the risk of a larger impact, much more than the 7% of world cargo flow that goes in and out of the Gulf.” Oil prices, meanwhile, have rocketed higher. S&amp;P Global Energy, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce, on Wednesday assessed the price of 0.5% sulfur marine bunker fuel in Singapore at $1,050 per metric ton, up from $519/metric ton the day before the war began. Carriers have responded by rolling out “emergency” surcharges. Maersk on Tuesday announced a global emergency bunker surcharge of $400 per FEU, joining Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping Co. in implementing similar fuel surcharges. Kildahl said the ship-to-ship transfers, moving oil from the US and Europe to Asia, and changing fuel supply patterns was creating additional expenses for the carrier, on top of rising bunker prices. With the Persian Gulf out of bounds, congestion is growing at other ports in the region with carriers looking to discharge cargo that had already departed Asia when booking suspensions were announced on March 1. Most of the carriers are prioritizing urgent cargo, such as food and pharmaceuticals, but Kildahl said at some point “other cargo will become urgent,” such as aluminum and petrochemicals and polyethylene that are raw materials for plastics production. “Those products can’t float out right now realistically, and so is that a problem tomorrow? No, it’s not,” he said. “It’s not a problem next week either, but at some point, it will be.” <h3>‘End-of-voyage’ disruptions </h3>For general and non-urgent cargo, MSC, CMA CGM and Yang Ming are among the carriers that have declared “end-of-voyage” for Persian Gulf-bound containers already onboard vessels. That cargo status means the carriers are unable to fulfill obligations on a bill of lading, and when the containers are offloaded at a port, they become the responsibility of the cargo owner. Kildahl said Maersk has about 40,000 TEUs that are shipped in and out of the Persian Gulf every week, and that bookings have been suspended to avoid diverted volume collapsing terminals in the region. But instead of declaring end-of-voyage, Maersk has taken a different approach, offering shippers three options: Keeping the cargo in temporary storage, having it returned to the port of departure, or delivering it to another destination for onward transport by another mode. “We are using Salalah and Khor Fakkan for cargo that comes from the east and are securing trucking capacity to take it into the Gulf,” Kildahl said. “For cargo that comes from Europe, we focus mainly on Jeddah and are deploying trucks to take the cargo across the Arabian Peninsula through the desert. “We don’t think it is a fantastic solution for any customer to get an end-of-voyage declaration,” he added. “If the customer doesn’t want any of the options, we may be forced into an end-of-voyage declaration, but I doubt we will come to that.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The disruption to oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz is forcing Maersk to take the unprecedented step of filling ships with fuel in the US and Europe and transferring the bunkers to vessels in Asia, the carrier’s chief commercial officer said Wednesday. Karsten Kildahl told the Journal of Commerce in an interview that in the past two days, several of Maersk’s bunker suppliers in key areas in the Middle East and Asia have been unable to refuel the carrier’s vessels. “We’ve had to start moving oil around ourselves because we don’t have enough supplies where we need them,” Kildahl said. “In Asia, nearly half of their supplies come from the Gulf area, so some of the vessels leaving the US and Europe are filled with as much oil as we possibly can, and then we transport the fuel to other vessels we connect with in Asia.” About one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and refined products — 20 million barrels per day — is exported via the Strait of Hormuz, but that slowed to a trickle after the US and Israel began air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. More than 10 ships have been attacked since the war started, and soaring war risk insurance is keeping most commercial shipping out of the region, including oil tankers. With the flow of waterborne oil suspended, reports out of China say suppliers are rationing fuel in anticipation of growing shortages, while bunkering centers such as Salalah in Oman are no longer able to fulfil fuel orders, Kildahl said. “Salalah is one of our main bunker ports in the Gulf, but we’ve not been able to bunker there for the past two days, so we need to transfer bunkers from one place to another,” he said. “The main concern right now is how do we safeguard the supply of oil?” Tanker chartering not an option Chartering a tanker to transport oil to where it is needed was not an option, Kildahl said, with available vessels in short supply. “In the short term, we have started bunkering in less efficient locations with a higher cost and more difficult logistics behind it, and over time we will have to significantly beef this up if [the war drags on],” he warned. “That is where you will have the risk of a larger impact, much more than the 7% of world cargo flow that goes in and out of the Gulf.” Oil prices, meanwhile, have rocketed higher. S&P Global Energy, a sister company of the Journal of Commerce, on Wednesday assessed the price of 0.5% sulfur marine bunker fuel in Singapore at $1,050 per metric ton, up from $519/metric ton the day before the war began. Carriers have responded by rolling out “emergency” surcharges. Maersk on Tuesday announced a global emergency bunker surcharge of $400 per FEU, joining Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping Co. in implementing similar fuel surcharges. Kildahl said the ship-to-ship transfers, moving oil from the US and Europe to Asia, and changing fuel supply patterns was creating additional expenses for the carrier, on top of rising bunker prices. With the Persian Gulf out of bounds, congestion is growing at other ports in the region with carriers looking to discharge cargo that had already departed Asia when booking suspensions were announced on March 1. Most of the carriers are prioritizing urgent cargo, such as food and pharmaceuticals, but Kildahl said at some point “other cargo will become urgent,” such as aluminum and petrochemicals and polyethylene that are raw materials for plastics production. “Those products can’t float out right now realistically, and so is that a problem tomorrow? No, it’s not,” he said. “It’s not a problem next week either, but at some point, it will be.” ‘End-of-voyage’ disruptions For general and non-urgent cargo, MSC, CMA CGM and Yang Ming are among the carriers that have declared “end-of-voyage” for Persian Gulf-bound containers already onboard vessels. That cargo status means the carriers are unable to fulfill obligations on a bill of lading, and when the containers are offloaded at a port, they become the responsibility of the cargo owner. Kildahl said Maersk has about 40,000 TEUs that are shipped in and out of the Persian Gulf every week, and that bookings have been suspended to avoid diverted volume collapsing terminals in the region. But instead of declaring end-of-voyage, Maersk has taken a different approach, offering shippers three options: Keeping the cargo in temporary storage, having it returned to the port of departure, or delivering it to another destination for onward transport by another mode. “We are using Salalah and Khor Fakkan for cargo that comes from the east and are securing trucking capacity to take it into the Gulf,” Kildahl said. “For cargo that comes from Europe, we focus mainly on Jeddah and are deploying trucks to take the cargo across the Arabian Peninsula through the desert. “We don’t think it is a fantastic solution for any customer to get an end-of-voyage declaration,” he added. “If the customer doesn’t want any of the options, we may be forced into an end-of-voyage declaration, but I doubt we will come to that.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Maersk forced to ship fuel from US, Europe as Asia bunkers start to run dry

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">All major long-haul liners are seeking temporary supply chain asylum at Indian docks to offload boxes that departed China and Southeast Asia in recent days, according to market sources in India.</div>

All major long-haul liners are seeking temporary supply chain asylum at Indian docks to offload boxes that departed China and Southeast Asia in recent days, according to market sources in India.

<div class="phx-topic">An estimated 100,000 TEUs of Far East-originated cargo that has become stranded en route to the Middle East is set to land across Indian ports as ocean carriers divert from the war zone, market sources in India say. All major long-haul liners are seeking temporary supply chain asylum at Indian docks to offload containers that departed ports in China and Southeast Asia in recent days, according to local industry sources who spoke with the Journal of Commerce. Representatives from Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Ocean Network Express, and Cosco Shipping are already in discussions with authorities at the Indian West Coast ports of Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Pipavav and Kandla to strike yard space deals for the storage of diverted loads, the sources said. With a planned rerouting count of approximately 40,000 TEUs, Maersk is also considering Gangavaram Port on India’s southern East Coast as an additional discharge point, the sources added. Maersk could not be reached for comment. Carriers at Nhava Sheva are primarily engaging with PSA International’s flagship Bharat Mumbai Container Terminals (BMCT), which now has measurable spare cargo-handling space following the 2025 terminal expansions that doubled annual throughput capacity to 4.8 million TEUs. BMCT has already handled a few ships diverted to Nhava Sheva to drop boxes, including Hapag-Lloyd’s 24,000-TEU Damietta Express, while terminal berthing data updated Thursday points to a lineup of nine ad-hoc calls through March 19. The terminal can stack up to 25,000 TEUs on dock, with capacity for 3,000 reefer plug-ins for refrigerated cargo, without causing major operational pressure on the quayside, sources noted. Port and customs authorities in Nhava Sheva are collaborating to identify and allocate dedicated extra yard space off the dock in line with recent government directives to ease Middle East supply chain pain points. Mediterranean Shipping Co. is already a significant regional transshipment player at Mundra and Vizhinjam in the south, riding on its strategic partnerships with Adani Ports, and there are no indications the carrier will stop using those ports to handle stranded cargo. <h3>India-Middle East rates jump </h3>Evacuating diverted containers is complicated in the current scenario, carrier sources agree, but they are betting on alternative shuttle connections to Sohar in Oman and Khor Fakkan and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates to keep clearing boxes out in parallel, with final transit legs <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/as-war-rages-multimodal-demand-surges-on-asia-europe-landbridge-6185162">handled by road wherever feasible</a>. While space is not guaranteed, forwarder sources have reported wild swings in spot pricing for Nhava Sheva-Middle East bookings: up to $2,500 per TEU and $3,500 per FEU for Sohar and $2,000 per TEU and $3,000 per FEU for Khor Fakkan. That’s from as low as $50 to $75 per FEU for bookings to Jebel Ali last month. “Our strategy is to prioritize refrigerated containers for onward connectivity,” a Nhava Sheva-based operations executive at a European carrier said. “We are working on a combination of regional options to handle affected cargo,” an executive with an Asia-based carrier said. However, no one is certain how efficiently those plans will play out in such a fluid environment. Terminals across major Indian ports are operating at normal speed at the moment, except for slightly longer waiting times reported at Nhava Sheva due to bunching of vessels. But trade experts warn of port congestion risks if a large influx of diverted containers arrives within a few days as they believe there will be a scramble at yards/terminal gates to connect or reconnect boxes on to ships when normal ocean service patterns return. Another regional factor pushing carriers onto the Indian coast is the space crunch at Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port to hold ad-hoc volumes. Local sources speaking with the Journal of Commerce have reported high yard occupancy levels across Colombo terminals due to a steady surge in traditional transshipment volumes. Colombo handled 604,173 TEUs of transshipments in January, up from 589,134 TEUs in December, industry data shows. “With ongoing schedule disruptions, there has been a bump in container dwells,” said a Colombo terminal executive who didn’t want to be identified. “So, we are turning away Middle East cargo callers at the moment.” Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

An estimated 100,000 TEUs of Far East-originated cargo that has become stranded en route to the Middle East is set to land across Indian ports as ocean carriers divert from the war zone, market sources in India say. All major long-haul liners are seeking temporary supply chain asylum at Indian docks to offload containers that departed ports in China and Southeast Asia in recent days, according to local industry sources who spoke with the Journal of Commerce. Representatives from Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, Ocean Network Express, and Cosco Shipping are already in discussions with authorities at the Indian West Coast ports of Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Pipavav and Kandla to strike yard space deals for the storage of diverted loads, the sources said. With a planned rerouting count of approximately 40,000 TEUs, Maersk is also considering Gangavaram Port on India’s southern East Coast as an additional discharge point, the sources added. Maersk could not be reached for comment. Carriers at Nhava Sheva are primarily engaging with PSA International’s flagship Bharat Mumbai Container Terminals (BMCT), which now has measurable spare cargo-handling space following the 2025 terminal expansions that doubled annual throughput capacity to 4.8 million TEUs. BMCT has already handled a few ships diverted to Nhava Sheva to drop boxes, including Hapag-Lloyd’s 24,000-TEU Damietta Express, while terminal berthing data updated Thursday points to a lineup of nine ad-hoc calls through March 19. The terminal can stack up to 25,000 TEUs on dock, with capacity for 3,000 reefer plug-ins for refrigerated cargo, without causing major operational pressure on the quayside, sources noted. Port and customs authorities in Nhava Sheva are collaborating to identify and allocate dedicated extra yard space off the dock in line with recent government directives to ease Middle East supply chain pain points. Mediterranean Shipping Co. is already a significant regional transshipment player at Mundra and Vizhinjam in the south, riding on its strategic partnerships with Adani Ports, and there are no indications the carrier will stop using those ports to handle stranded cargo. India-Middle East rates jump Evacuating diverted containers is complicated in the current scenario, carrier sources agree, but they are betting on alternative shuttle connections to Sohar in Oman and Khor Fakkan and Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates to keep clearing boxes out in parallel, with final transit legs handled by road wherever feasible . While space is not guaranteed, forwarder sources have reported wild swings in spot pricing for Nhava Sheva-Middle East bookings: up to $2,500 per TEU and $3,500 per FEU for Sohar and $2,000 per TEU and $3,000 per FEU for Khor Fakkan. That’s from as low as $50 to $75 per FEU for bookings to Jebel Ali last month. “Our strategy is to prioritize refrigerated containers for onward connectivity,” a Nhava Sheva-based operations executive at a European carrier said. “We are working on a combination of regional options to handle affected cargo,” an executive with an Asia-based carrier said. However, no one is certain how efficiently those plans will play out in such a fluid environment. Terminals across major Indian ports are operating at normal speed at the moment, except for slightly longer waiting times reported at Nhava Sheva due to bunching of vessels. But trade experts warn of port congestion risks if a large influx of diverted containers arrives within a few days as they believe there will be a scramble at yards/terminal gates to connect or reconnect boxes on to ships when normal ocean service patterns return. Another regional factor pushing carriers onto the Indian coast is the space crunch at Sri Lanka’s Colombo Port to hold ad-hoc volumes. Local sources speaking with the Journal of Commerce have reported high yard occupancy levels across Colombo terminals due to a steady surge in traditional transshipment volumes. Colombo handled 604,173 TEUs of transshipments in January, up from 589,134 TEUs in December, industry data shows. “With ongoing schedule disruptions, there has been a bump in container dwells,” said a Colombo terminal executive who didn’t want to be identified. “So, we are turning away Middle East cargo callers at the moment.” Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

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