<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">With typical seasonal lulls setting in after a slower-than-usual peak season, forwarders generally do not expect India-Europe rates to show any sort of an uptick until January. </div>

With typical seasonal lulls setting in after a slower-than-usual peak season, forwarders generally do not expect India-Europe rates to show any sort of an uptick until January.

Feature image

<div class="phx-topic">The steady rate erosion seen on India-Europe trades over the last few months continues to build, sending carrier westbound booking rates to lows last <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/november-rate-plunge-negates-carrier-pricing-activity-on-india-europe-trade-5222709">reported in late 2023</a>, an analysis of new data obtained by the Journal of Commerce from freight forwarders shows. Forwarder sources have now put average freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates from West India to North Europe at $800 to $900 per FEU, with some cargo-hungry Asian carriers even quoting slightly lower. That’s down from $1,000 to $1,100 per FEU about a month ago. “It’s pathetic out there to get the cargo without compromising on prices,” a sales executive at a European liner who didn’t want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce. “But we have still announced a modest rate hike plan for early December.” With typical seasonal lulls setting in after a slower-than-usual peak season, forwarders generally do not expect India-Europe rates to show any sort of an uptick until January. They also believe overcapacity will remain a drag on the ability of carriers to push through large rate increases in early 2026 unless demand strengthens significantly. Supal Shah, CEO of Mumbai-based Sarjak Container Lines, noted that ocean pricing on the India-Europe trade lane has been through peaks and lows in recent years due to ongoing volatile market conditions. “Rates surged in early 2024 as carriers rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks in the Red Sea,” said Shah. “By late 2025, demand weakened and capacity improved, leading to yet another correction.” In that vein, Shah believes exporters and freight service providers should combine long-term service contracts with flexible spot strategies to hedge their margin bets. <h3>Data suggest export diversification </h3>Meanwhile, CMA CGM seems set to pull the additional India-Europe capacity it injected last month into the market through a temporary relay stop at Tangier in Morocco on its Indamex (India-US East Coast) loop, the carrier’s November forward vessel schedules indicate. Anecdotal industry data puts India-Europe containerized volumes from January to September at 770,000 TEUs. On a broader note, despite US tariff pressures, India’s merchandise exports by value in September were up nearly 7% year over year, government data shows, likely due to stronger market diversification efforts. “While the US continues to be India’s largest export destination, there is substantial untapped potential in regions such as Latin America, Africa and [Southeast Asia],” the Federation of Indian Export Organizations said in a statement. Contact Bency Mathew at <a href="mailto:bencyvmathew@gmail.com">bencyvmathew@gmail.com</a>. </div>

The steady rate erosion seen on India-Europe trades over the last few months continues to build, sending carrier westbound booking rates to lows last reported in late 2023 , an analysis of new data obtained by the Journal of Commerce from freight forwarders shows. Forwarder sources have now put average freight-all-kinds (FAK) rates from West India to North Europe at $800 to $900 per FEU, with some cargo-hungry Asian carriers even quoting slightly lower. That’s down from $1,000 to $1,100 per FEU about a month ago. “It’s pathetic out there to get the cargo without compromising on prices,” a sales executive at a European liner who didn’t want to be identified told the Journal of Commerce. “But we have still announced a modest rate hike plan for early December.” With typical seasonal lulls setting in after a slower-than-usual peak season, forwarders generally do not expect India-Europe rates to show any sort of an uptick until January. They also believe overcapacity will remain a drag on the ability of carriers to push through large rate increases in early 2026 unless demand strengthens significantly. Supal Shah, CEO of Mumbai-based Sarjak Container Lines, noted that ocean pricing on the India-Europe trade lane has been through peaks and lows in recent years due to ongoing volatile market conditions. “Rates surged in early 2024 as carriers rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks in the Red Sea,” said Shah. “By late 2025, demand weakened and capacity improved, leading to yet another correction.” In that vein, Shah believes exporters and freight service providers should combine long-term service contracts with flexible spot strategies to hedge their margin bets. Data suggest export diversification Meanwhile, CMA CGM seems set to pull the additional India-Europe capacity it injected last month into the market through a temporary relay stop at Tangier in Morocco on its Indamex (India-US East Coast) loop, the carrier’s November forward vessel schedules indicate. Anecdotal industry data puts India-Europe containerized volumes from January to September at 770,000 TEUs. On a broader note, despite US tariff pressures, India’s merchandise exports by value in September were up nearly 7% year over year, government data shows, likely due to stronger market diversification efforts. “While the US continues to be India’s largest export destination, there is substantial untapped potential in regions such as Latin America, Africa and [Southeast Asia],” the Federation of Indian Export Organizations said in a statement. Contact Bency Mathew at bencyvmathew@gmail.com .

Asia-Europe

Container Shipping News

Maritime

Overcapacity, slack season pressures push India-Europe rates to two-year lows

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">A predicted annual growth rate of 9% for the space economy to 2035 will intensify the demands on cargo handlers. </div>

A predicted annual growth rate of 9% for the space economy to 2035 will intensify the demands on cargo handlers.

<div class="phx-topic">Increased frequency of launches, a rise of orbital servicing and the emergence of lunar cargo delivery are driving demand for space-related project cargo logistics models that are agile, compliant and technically robust, according to specialist forwarders. Citing an analysis from McKinsey &amp; Company for the World Economic Forum (2024–25), Marc Cowie, CEO for North America for specialist forwarder Trans Global Projects, said the space economy is undergoing a significant transformation that “directly impacts the logistics of space components.” The McKinsey report projects the global space economy to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 9% — nearly double the global GDP growth rate. This expansion is driven by several key factors, Cowie told the Journal of Commerce. These include declining launch costs, the proliferation of smaller, cheaper satellites; enhanced Earth observation capabilities, diversified investment with over $70 billion in private capital invested in space ventures during 2021–22, and sectoral integration. McKinsey emphasized that space is no longer a niche sector — it is becoming a ubiquitous enabler of terrestrial industries, including logistics. “For the logistics of space components, this means increased demand for specialized transport solutions, growth in multimodal and intercontinental operations, higher regulatory and compliance complexity, and opportunities in orbital and lunar logistics,” Peter Fritschi, Group COO at Trans Global Projects (TGP), told the Journal of Commerce. As satellite constellations and orbital infrastructure scale, logistics providers must support more frequent, time-sensitive and technically complex shipments today. For tomorrow, emerging services such as in-orbit refueling, debris removal and lunar cargo delivery will require new logistics models and partnerships. “In short, the logistics of space components is entering a phase of accelerated growth and strategic importance,” Fritschi said. <h3>Shift of logistics focus </h3>The logistics of space components has evolved over the past few years, both operationally and commercially. TGP has seen a shift from ad hoc, project-based shipments to a more structured and recurring flow of high-value, technically complex cargo. “Private logistics providers have adapted to this shift by developing multimodal solutions that accommodate oversized, sensitive and often confidential space hardware,” Cowie said. In a recent project, NATCO, part of the TGP group, coordinated the transport of custom-built containers for a next-generation European launch vehicle. These containers each held one-half of the rocket tip and were moved from Switzerland to a South American launch site operated by a European space agency. The shipments were part of a regular supply chain supporting both European and US space programs. TGP USA, meanwhile, has supported a US space company by shipping large counterweights for rocket launchers from China to the US in moves that required coordination across continents, including customs brokerage, biosecurity compliance and specialized handling protocols. “The operational complexity of these shipments reflects the broader evolution of the market,” Fritschi said. “Logistics providers are now expected to manage not only the physical movement of space components but also the regulatory, engineering and risk mitigation aspects of each mission.” This includes navigating export controls, ensuring vibration and temperature stability, and aligning with launch schedules and orbital servicing windows. <h3>Greener handling of space components </h3>Wind power is playing a central role in the logistics for the European Space Agency (ESA) Ariane 6 program, as part of ESA’s environmental commitments. The launcher elements of the heavy-lift rocket Ariane 6, manufactured in Europe, are being transported to ESA’s spaceport in French Guiana onboard the 121-meter-long Canopée, a custom-built roll-on/roll-off vessel fitted with four 37-meter-tall OceanWings sails. The sails fitted to the Canopée reduce fuel consumption on the rotation by between 25% and 30%, and halve the cost of shipping the parts, said Louis Laurent, head of the Ariane 6 program. “Our environmental commitments were at the center of the decision taken early in the Ariane 6 program to build the most efficient vessel in terms of costs and carbon footprint,” he told the Journal of Commerce. The hybrid propulsion vessel rotates between five ports to load Ariane 6 components and ship them across the Atlantic. The rotation starts in Bremen, Germany, where the upper stage is loaded, then to Rotterdam in the Netherlands to load the rocket’s fairing, Le Havre, France, for the core stage for Ariane 6, and finally Bordeaux, France, for the solid propulsion elements, before a 10-day trans-Atlantic crossing to the port of Pariacabo in Kourou, French Guiana — where all the components are offloaded and transported by road to the Ariane 6 launch vehicles assembly building a few kilometers away. The Canopée is expected to complete the port rotation up to 12 times a year. “Today we are not at the maximum for Ariane 6, but we are ramping up to 10 to 12 launches per year,” said Laurent. “So the vessel is not at maximum use now, but next year will be almost fully occupied on the Ariane 6.” The vessel is chartered and operated by shipping company Alizés, which can use it elsewhere if there is capacity. The Canopée was built by Neptune Marine Projects in the Polish port of Sczezcin. Sea trials beginning in December 2022 included a crossing from Rotterdam to Kourou, and the four sails were installed in 2023. “The sails enable a very significant reduction in fuel. It is not a concept, but has been demonstrated in reality, in more than two years of operations between Europe and South America,” said Laurent. “The vessel is part of our sustainability program, which also includes our commitment to deorbit the upper stage at the end of the mission, rather than leaving it in orbit. Ariane 6 is the first program to have this policy to clean up in space when the mission is done.” Ariane 6 weighs almost 900 metric tons when launched with a full payload. The two versions have the flexibility to launch both heavy and light payloads to a range of orbits, for applications such as Earth observation, telecoms, meteorology, science and navigation. <h3>Plethora of logistics challenges </h3>ESA’s Ariane 6 program demonstrates the physical challenges of handling space cargoes. But logistics complexity lies not only in the physical nature of the cargo, but also in the regulatory, operational and geopolitical landscape surrounding space-related shipments. Another challenge is confidentiality. “Space-related cargo often involves proprietary technology and mission-critical components,” Cowie said. “This limits the ability to share operational details with subcontractors or even internally across teams.” As a result, logistics providers must implement heightened security protocols, discreet handling procedures and close coordination with clients and government agencies. Timing is also critical. “Space components are frequently tied to fixed launch windows, meaning any delay in transport can have cascading effects across mission schedules,” Fritschi said. “This demands contingency planning, priority access to transport modes and constant communication with stakeholders.” But there are opportunities on the horizon. With orbital congestion and space debris becoming critical concerns, Fritschi believes logistics providers will be called upon to support missions focused on debris removal, satellite repositioning and end-of-life asset management. “This opens a niche for companies with engineering capabilities and secure transport solutions for sensitive and hazardous materials,” he said. Contact Carly Fields at <a href="mailto:carly.fields@spglobal.com">carly.fields@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Felicity Landon at <a href="mailto:felicity@felicitylandon.com">felicity@felicitylandon.com</a>.</div>

Increased frequency of launches, a rise of orbital servicing and the emergence of lunar cargo delivery are driving demand for space-related project cargo logistics models that are agile, compliant and technically robust, according to specialist forwarders. Citing an analysis from McKinsey & Company for the World Economic Forum (2024–25), Marc Cowie, CEO for North America for specialist forwarder Trans Global Projects, said the space economy is undergoing a significant transformation that “directly impacts the logistics of space components.” The McKinsey report projects the global space economy to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, up from $630 billion in 2023, with an average annual growth rate of 9% — nearly double the global GDP growth rate. This expansion is driven by several key factors, Cowie told the Journal of Commerce. These include declining launch costs, the proliferation of smaller, cheaper satellites; enhanced Earth observation capabilities, diversified investment with over $70 billion in private capital invested in space ventures during 2021–22, and sectoral integration. McKinsey emphasized that space is no longer a niche sector — it is becoming a ubiquitous enabler of terrestrial industries, including logistics. “For the logistics of space components, this means increased demand for specialized transport solutions, growth in multimodal and intercontinental operations, higher regulatory and compliance complexity, and opportunities in orbital and lunar logistics,” Peter Fritschi, Group COO at Trans Global Projects (TGP), told the Journal of Commerce. As satellite constellations and orbital infrastructure scale, logistics providers must support more frequent, time-sensitive and technically complex shipments today. For tomorrow, emerging services such as in-orbit refueling, debris removal and lunar cargo delivery will require new logistics models and partnerships. “In short, the logistics of space components is entering a phase of accelerated growth and strategic importance,” Fritschi said. Shift of logistics focus The logistics of space components has evolved over the past few years, both operationally and commercially. TGP has seen a shift from ad hoc, project-based shipments to a more structured and recurring flow of high-value, technically complex cargo. “Private logistics providers have adapted to this shift by developing multimodal solutions that accommodate oversized, sensitive and often confidential space hardware,” Cowie said. In a recent project, NATCO, part of the TGP group, coordinated the transport of custom-built containers for a next-generation European launch vehicle. These containers each held one-half of the rocket tip and were moved from Switzerland to a South American launch site operated by a European space agency. The shipments were part of a regular supply chain supporting both European and US space programs. TGP USA, meanwhile, has supported a US space company by shipping large counterweights for rocket launchers from China to the US in moves that required coordination across continents, including customs brokerage, biosecurity compliance and specialized handling protocols. “The operational complexity of these shipments reflects the broader evolution of the market,” Fritschi said. “Logistics providers are now expected to manage not only the physical movement of space components but also the regulatory, engineering and risk mitigation aspects of each mission.” This includes navigating export controls, ensuring vibration and temperature stability, and aligning with launch schedules and orbital servicing windows. Greener handling of space components Wind power is playing a central role in the logistics for the European Space Agency (ESA) Ariane 6 program, as part of ESA’s environmental commitments. The launcher elements of the heavy-lift rocket Ariane 6, manufactured in Europe, are being transported to ESA’s spaceport in French Guiana onboard the 121-meter-long Canopée, a custom-built roll-on/roll-off vessel fitted with four 37-meter-tall OceanWings sails. The sails fitted to the Canopée reduce fuel consumption on the rotation by between 25% and 30%, and halve the cost of shipping the parts, said Louis Laurent, head of the Ariane 6 program. “Our environmental commitments were at the center of the decision taken early in the Ariane 6 program to build the most efficient vessel in terms of costs and carbon footprint,” he told the Journal of Commerce. The hybrid propulsion vessel rotates between five ports to load Ariane 6 components and ship them across the Atlantic. The rotation starts in Bremen, Germany, where the upper stage is loaded, then to Rotterdam in the Netherlands to load the rocket’s fairing, Le Havre, France, for the core stage for Ariane 6, and finally Bordeaux, France, for the solid propulsion elements, before a 10-day trans-Atlantic crossing to the port of Pariacabo in Kourou, French Guiana — where all the components are offloaded and transported by road to the Ariane 6 launch vehicles assembly building a few kilometers away. The Canopée is expected to complete the port rotation up to 12 times a year. “Today we are not at the maximum for Ariane 6, but we are ramping up to 10 to 12 launches per year,” said Laurent. “So the vessel is not at maximum use now, but next year will be almost fully occupied on the Ariane 6.” The vessel is chartered and operated by shipping company Alizés, which can use it elsewhere if there is capacity. The Canopée was built by Neptune Marine Projects in the Polish port of Sczezcin. Sea trials beginning in December 2022 included a crossing from Rotterdam to Kourou, and the four sails were installed in 2023. “The sails enable a very significant reduction in fuel. It is not a concept, but has been demonstrated in reality, in more than two years of operations between Europe and South America,” said Laurent. “The vessel is part of our sustainability program, which also includes our commitment to deorbit the upper stage at the end of the mission, rather than leaving it in orbit. Ariane 6 is the first program to have this policy to clean up in space when the mission is done.” Ariane 6 weighs almost 900 metric tons when launched with a full payload. The two versions have the flexibility to launch both heavy and light payloads to a range of orbits, for applications such as Earth observation, telecoms, meteorology, science and navigation. Plethora of logistics challenges ESA’s Ariane 6 program demonstrates the physical challenges of handling space cargoes. But logistics complexity lies not only in the physical nature of the cargo, but also in the regulatory, operational and geopolitical landscape surrounding space-related shipments. Another challenge is confidentiality. “Space-related cargo often involves proprietary technology and mission-critical components,” Cowie said. “This limits the ability to share operational details with subcontractors or even internally across teams.” As a result, logistics providers must implement heightened security protocols, discreet handling procedures and close coordination with clients and government agencies. Timing is also critical. “Space components are frequently tied to fixed launch windows, meaning any delay in transport can have cascading effects across mission schedules,” Fritschi said. “This demands contingency planning, priority access to transport modes and constant communication with stakeholders.” But there are opportunities on the horizon. With orbital congestion and space debris becoming critical concerns, Fritschi believes logistics providers will be called upon to support missions focused on debris removal, satellite repositioning and end-of-life asset management. “This opens a niche for companies with engineering capabilities and secure transport solutions for sensitive and hazardous materials,” he said. Contact Carly Fields at carly.fields@spglobal.com .Contact Felicity Landon at felicity@felicitylandon.com .

Breakbulk carriers

Heavy-haul transport

Project cargo

Breakbulk News

Project cargo forwarders in the space race prepare for liftoff

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">While premium pricing has long been elusive for ocean carriers, the cost benefits from the Maersk-Hapag Lloyd alliance may prove to be enough to justify overhauling the network.</div>

While premium pricing has long been elusive for ocean carriers, the cost benefits from the Maersk-Hapag Lloyd alliance may prove to be enough to justify overhauling the network.

<div class="phx-topic">More than nine months into the Gemini Cooperation’s journey — possibly the most radical reinvention ever attempted in container shipping — two things are becoming clear: stated schedule reliability that is well above industry averages has largely been achieved and doubts about its sustainability are fading. A hub-and-spoke network able to keep feeder ships filled is lowering costs, mimicking the common-feeder model in place for decades in Asia and other regions. The one big unanswered question that remains is whether, or to what extent, premium revenue can be extracted from shippers by Gemini partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd. Maersk, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/value-unlocked-by-gemini-will-clear-path-for-premium-charge-maersk-ceo-6111339">during its third-quarter earnings release last week</a>, provided the clearest picture to date on that very question. <div class="wrapper-narrow float-right-element"><img src="/images/phoenix/6113169_0.1.jpg"></img></div>CEO Vincent Clerc said he believed premium pricing is coming, but that trust in Gemini’s reliability needed to be more firmly entrenched beyond the standards established thus far. “We need to be certain that we have a long enough track record that it unlocks value for them [shippers], that we can then capture some of that value for us,” Clerc told analysts. But a tantalizing possibility may be emerging: It might not actually matter. The reason is that while premium pricing has long been elusive for ocean carriers, the cost benefits from Gemini may themselves prove to be enough to justify overhauling the network. Maersk cited annualized cost savings of $720 million to $950 million through the implementation of the Gemini network as a result of lower bunker costs and greater asset utilization. This is coming from higher utilization of ships and shorter sailing distances, which resulted in 6% higher capacity but 3% lower total fuel consumption. Running ships at a higher utilization in the network, Clerc said, allows the carrier to transport more volumes at the same capacity. Carriers such as Singapore-based X-Press Feeders and Bengal Tiger Line handle large carriers’ feeder volumes by keeping costs lower through higher utilization than the carriers have been able to achieve on their own. On the cost structure, “we are opening up a gap now with Gemini that is going to be ... quite handy, especially in the current rate environment,” Clerc said. “It’s a pretty significant lever that we have unlocked here,” stemming in part from using “fit-for-purpose shuttles rather than underutilized mainliners,” he added. The revenue side is less clear. It is unclear how much of a premium revenue opportunity exists by offering high schedule reliability. In prior eras, carriers invested significant sums in fuel to stay on schedule only for a weak market to undercut their argument for premium rates. Indeed, whether investing more in fuel to keep ships on schedule, deploying 53-foot ocean containers to allow customs to load more cargo or departing every day on time as was envisioned in Daily Maersk, there has been little in terms of premium pricing over a period of decades to show for it. <h3>Premium appetites? </h3>A market exists; the question is how big. The existence of high-reliability, premium-priced services offered by Matson, UWL, Zim Integrated Shipping Services and Tailwind on the Asia-Europe trade point to a segment of the shipper market able to capture supply chain value from reliable schedules. Also, in limited cases, some large shippers have shown themselves willing to pay a premium for preferential stowage, leading to expedited movement of containers off the ship and through the terminal, including for so-called peel-off stacks. The Gemini partners, however, believe a fundamental value proposition continues to exist by enabling customers to slash costs by reducing inventory. “I am optimistic that if someone can remove $10 million a day and can they save two weeks in that, that I can get a premium,” Stuart Sandlin, Hapag-Lloyd’s regional president for the Americas, told the South Carolina International Trade Conference on Oct. 29. “I candidly think [Gemini is] a premium product and should command some sort of premium price.” As Clerc put it on the earnings call: “Today, every customer has a buffer stock and that reliability needs to unlock a reduction of that buffer stock. They need to trust that [Gemini] has weathered sufficient ups and downs and is steady [so] that they can take out some of that buffer stock. And if they do, they pocket that savings and then we can capture some of it in form of a premium.” For both Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, the Gemini network fits respective strategies and approaches to the market. It harks back to hub-and-spoke networks of an earlier day and is true to Maersk’s historic DNA of running on time, a source of tension within the former 2M alliance with Mediterranean Shipping Co. For Hapag-Lloyd, it can’t promote itself as the best major carrier in terms of service quality, its stated objective, and not run on time. Contact Peter Tirschwell at <a href="mailto:peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com">peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

More than nine months into the Gemini Cooperation’s journey — possibly the most radical reinvention ever attempted in container shipping — two things are becoming clear: stated schedule reliability that is well above industry averages has largely been achieved and doubts about its sustainability are fading. A hub-and-spoke network able to keep feeder ships filled is lowering costs, mimicking the common-feeder model in place for decades in Asia and other regions. The one big unanswered question that remains is whether, or to what extent, premium revenue can be extracted from shippers by Gemini partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd. Maersk, during its third-quarter earnings release last week , provided the clearest picture to date on that very question. CEO Vincent Clerc said he believed premium pricing is coming, but that trust in Gemini’s reliability needed to be more firmly entrenched beyond the standards established thus far. “We need to be certain that we have a long enough track record that it unlocks value for them [shippers], that we can then capture some of that value for us,” Clerc told analysts. But a tantalizing possibility may be emerging: It might not actually matter. The reason is that while premium pricing has long been elusive for ocean carriers, the cost benefits from Gemini may themselves prove to be enough to justify overhauling the network. Maersk cited annualized cost savings of $720 million to $950 million through the implementation of the Gemini network as a result of lower bunker costs and greater asset utilization. This is coming from higher utilization of ships and shorter sailing distances, which resulted in 6% higher capacity but 3% lower total fuel consumption. Running ships at a higher utilization in the network, Clerc said, allows the carrier to transport more volumes at the same capacity. Carriers such as Singapore-based X-Press Feeders and Bengal Tiger Line handle large carriers’ feeder volumes by keeping costs lower through higher utilization than the carriers have been able to achieve on their own. On the cost structure, “we are opening up a gap now with Gemini that is going to be ... quite handy, especially in the current rate environment,” Clerc said. “It’s a pretty significant lever that we have unlocked here,” stemming in part from using “fit-for-purpose shuttles rather than underutilized mainliners,” he added. The revenue side is less clear. It is unclear how much of a premium revenue opportunity exists by offering high schedule reliability. In prior eras, carriers invested significant sums in fuel to stay on schedule only for a weak market to undercut their argument for premium rates. Indeed, whether investing more in fuel to keep ships on schedule, deploying 53-foot ocean containers to allow customs to load more cargo or departing every day on time as was envisioned in Daily Maersk, there has been little in terms of premium pricing over a period of decades to show for it. Premium appetites? A market exists; the question is how big. The existence of high-reliability, premium-priced services offered by Matson, UWL, Zim Integrated Shipping Services and Tailwind on the Asia-Europe trade point to a segment of the shipper market able to capture supply chain value from reliable schedules. Also, in limited cases, some large shippers have shown themselves willing to pay a premium for preferential stowage, leading to expedited movement of containers off the ship and through the terminal, including for so-called peel-off stacks. The Gemini partners, however, believe a fundamental value proposition continues to exist by enabling customers to slash costs by reducing inventory. “I am optimistic that if someone can remove $10 million a day and can they save two weeks in that, that I can get a premium,” Stuart Sandlin, Hapag-Lloyd’s regional president for the Americas, told the South Carolina International Trade Conference on Oct. 29. “I candidly think [Gemini is] a premium product and should command some sort of premium price.” As Clerc put it on the earnings call: “Today, every customer has a buffer stock and that reliability needs to unlock a reduction of that buffer stock. They need to trust that [Gemini] has weathered sufficient ups and downs and is steady [so] that they can take out some of that buffer stock. And if they do, they pocket that savings and then we can capture some of it in form of a premium.” For both Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, the Gemini network fits respective strategies and approaches to the market. It harks back to hub-and-spoke networks of an earlier day and is true to Maersk’s historic DNA of running on time, a source of tension within the former 2M alliance with Mediterranean Shipping Co. For Hapag-Lloyd, it can’t promote itself as the best major carrier in terms of service quality, its stated objective, and not run on time. Contact Peter Tirschwell at peter.tirschwell@spglobal.com .

Container lines

Gemini delivers cost savings as it mulls a path to premium pricing

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The South Coast Air Quality Management District governing board has approved an emissions reduction plan that requires the ports to develop and implement charging and fueling infrastructure and invest in zero or near-zero-emission trucks, locomotives and cargo handling equipment.</div>

The South Coast Air Quality Management District governing board has approved an emissions reduction plan that requires the ports to develop and implement charging and fueling infrastructure and invest in zero or near-zero-emission trucks, locomotives and cargo handling equipment.

<div class="phx-topic">The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach will work closely with the regional emissions regulatory agency to develop and deliver infrastructure to support zero-emission trucks and cargo-handling equipment over the next decade. The South Coast Air Quality Management District (AQMD) governing board on Friday approved an emissions reduction plan that requires the ports to develop and implement charging and fueling infrastructure and invest in zero- or near-zero-emission trucks, locomotives and cargo handling equipment, with the AQMD verifying progress through annual reports. The “cooperative agreement” will be implemented in three phases over the coming decade, giving port stakeholders the time they will need to attain the pollution-reduction goals outlined by the regulatory agency, the AQMD said in a statement. “This is a milestone more than a decade in the making and reflects a collective commitment to cleaner air for the South Coast region,” said Venessa Delgado, chair of the AQMD’s governing board. Port stakeholders generally support the cooperative agreement, saying it sets realistic timelines for each industry sector to achieve the overall goal of reducing harmful emissions without artificially “capping” cargo growth at the largest US port complex. “We want it to be as flexible as possible rather than being regulated into this under the ISR [Indirect Source Rule] approach,” Robert Loya, CEO of the Harbor Trucking Association, told the Journal of Commerce Monday. The cooperative <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/la-lb-port-interests-spar-with-agency-over-emissions-rule-under-development-5223229">approach replaces the mandates in the agency’s ISR announced by the AQMD in 2021.</a>“The real-world transition to zero emissions is an ambitious, complicated and expensive proposition,” Mike Jacob, president of the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association, which represents shipping lines and terminal operators on the West Coast, said in a statement. “While the cooperative agreement’s implementation schedules will be aggressive, it allows for new technologies to fail before they succeed.” The ports will develop comprehensive plans that recognize the progress and limitations of various technologies in each transportation sector. AQMD will verify progress through annual reports and regular reporting to its governing board. Penalties for noncompliance range from $50,000 to $200,000 per default and will be used toward projects benefiting communities near the ports, AQMD said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach will work closely with the regional emissions regulatory agency to develop and deliver infrastructure to support zero-emission trucks and cargo-handling equipment over the next decade. The South Coast Air Quality Management District (AQMD) governing board on Friday approved an emissions reduction plan that requires the ports to develop and implement charging and fueling infrastructure and invest in zero- or near-zero-emission trucks, locomotives and cargo handling equipment, with the AQMD verifying progress through annual reports. The “cooperative agreement” will be implemented in three phases over the coming decade, giving port stakeholders the time they will need to attain the pollution-reduction goals outlined by the regulatory agency, the AQMD said in a statement. “This is a milestone more than a decade in the making and reflects a collective commitment to cleaner air for the South Coast region,” said Venessa Delgado, chair of the AQMD’s governing board. Port stakeholders generally support the cooperative agreement, saying it sets realistic timelines for each industry sector to achieve the overall goal of reducing harmful emissions without artificially “capping” cargo growth at the largest US port complex. “We want it to be as flexible as possible rather than being regulated into this under the ISR [Indirect Source Rule] approach,” Robert Loya, CEO of the Harbor Trucking Association, told the Journal of Commerce Monday. The cooperative approach replaces the mandates in the agency’s ISR announced by the AQMD in 2021. “The real-world transition to zero emissions is an ambitious, complicated and expensive proposition,” Mike Jacob, president of the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association, which represents shipping lines and terminal operators on the West Coast, said in a statement. “While the cooperative agreement’s implementation schedules will be aggressive, it allows for new technologies to fail before they succeed.” The ports will develop comprehensive plans that recognize the progress and limitations of various technologies in each transportation sector. AQMD will verify progress through annual reports and regular reporting to its governing board. Penalties for noncompliance range from $50,000 to $200,000 per default and will be used toward projects benefiting communities near the ports, AQMD said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .

Port News

Transport, Trade and Regulation News

Port infrastructure

North American ports

Marine terminals

LA-LB emissions agreement with AQMD sets realistic timelines: stakeholders

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The product, known as Fast Track, is the latest effort by an intermodal carrier to attract customers who depend on precision and dependable service, qualities that railroads have often struggled to deliver.</div>

The product, known as Fast Track, is the latest effort by an intermodal carrier to attract customers who depend on precision and dependable service, qualities that railroads have often struggled to deliver.

<div class="phx-topic">Schneider National on Monday launched a new intermodal product offering a 95% on-time guarantee that is designed to convert truckload shippers that have been long skeptical of rail service reliability. The product, known as Fast Track, is the latest effort by an intermodal carrier to attract customers who depend on precision and dependable service, qualities that railroads have often struggled to deliver. “Reliability is a cornerstone of our operations,” Jim Filter, Schneider’s executive vice president, said in a statement. “Fast Track gives shippers peace of mind with unmatched speed and consistency, supported by our professional drivers and robust nationwide network of company-owned assets.” Some shippers need truck-like transit times; others value predictable delivery windows above all. “If what they are looking for is a faster transit, we will put it on an [expedited] train,” Michael Baumgardt, vice president of intermodal for Schneider, told the Journal of Commerce. “Some customers need a consistent schedule that you can’t deviate from ever. The consistency must be 95% to 100% on schedule. Our Fast Track product will serve both types of customers.” Fast Track will be more expensive than standard intermodal because of its service guarantees, but Schneider said it should remain cheaper than truckload, particularly on longer hauls over 1,200 miles. The Schneider product comes after competitor J.B. Hunt Transport Services launched the Quantum product <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/j-b-hunt-bnsf-launch-new-intermodal-service-to-grab-time-sensitive-freight-5215574">in 2023</a> with a 95% on-time guarantee, which expanded into <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/jb-hunt-launching-quantum-de-mexico-for-time-sensitive-cross-border-freight-6014579">Mexico</a> earlier this year. Similar to Quantum, Fast Track is planned “backward” from the point of delivery. Schneider will work with shippers to define what qualifies as on time — i.e. the delivery window of the shipper — and their speed requirements, before building a route that meets those expectations. “We begin by understanding what our customer is trying to accomplish,” Baumgardt said. “Then we determine what we are going to need to do differently, which may include alternative routings, longer drays, or skipping an interchange and using our asset-based truckload network. It could also mean changes from a customer at origin.” Schneider is likely to focus its efforts on Canadian Pacific Kansas City’s (CPKC’s) Mexico Midwest Express, where its single-line route is advertised as up to two days faster than competitors. However, Schneider said Fast Track will also include lanes with CSX Transportation and Union Pacific Railroad (UP), noting that it coordinated with all three railroads before launching. <h3>How Schneider plans to meet the 95% guarantee </h3>To execute the service guarantee, Schneider has worked with CPKC, CSX and UP on priority loading and unloading, a “first-on, first-off” approach similar to premium handling in ocean shipping. Schneider will also flag containers to ensure none are left behind when trains are full, akin to rolled cargo in ocean transportation. “We will work with the railroads to segregate these containers to ensure that they don’t get left behind,” Baumgardt said. “And if there needs to be a priority to get off the train to meet the customer’s needs, we’d work with the railroad on that too. Our teams are closely integrated with our rail partners on Fast Track.” Schneider shares a key advantage with J.B. Hunt: insourced chassis and drayage. Most containers move on company-operated tractors, and every container rides on Schneider-owned chassis, minimizing reliance on third parties for the first and final mile. Schneider also has more than 10,000 company tractors in its one-way and dedicated truckload divisions, which can step in when rail disruptions occur. If a train is delayed en route, the railroad can unload the container at the next available location and Schneider can complete the move via highway to honor the on-time guarantee. That flexibility is harder to replicate south of the border for J.B. Hunt and Schneider as neither have company assets there. “We have partnerships in Mexico and the types of carriers that we use, which we are very particular about, we’ve already had situation already where we’ve had to make changes on the fly and been very successful doing it,” Baumgardt said. “We have trusted third-party partners in Mexico that we know can deliver the security, capacity, and speed that would be required for Fast Track if it were to come to it.” Contact Ari Ashe at <a href="mailto:ari.ashe@spglobal.com">ari.ashe@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Schneider National on Monday launched a new intermodal product offering a 95% on-time guarantee that is designed to convert truckload shippers that have been long skeptical of rail service reliability. The product, known as Fast Track, is the latest effort by an intermodal carrier to attract customers who depend on precision and dependable service, qualities that railroads have often struggled to deliver. “Reliability is a cornerstone of our operations,” Jim Filter, Schneider’s executive vice president, said in a statement. “Fast Track gives shippers peace of mind with unmatched speed and consistency, supported by our professional drivers and robust nationwide network of company-owned assets.” Some shippers need truck-like transit times; others value predictable delivery windows above all. “If what they are looking for is a faster transit, we will put it on an [expedited] train,” Michael Baumgardt, vice president of intermodal for Schneider, told the Journal of Commerce. “Some customers need a consistent schedule that you can’t deviate from ever. The consistency must be 95% to 100% on schedule. Our Fast Track product will serve both types of customers.” Fast Track will be more expensive than standard intermodal because of its service guarantees, but Schneider said it should remain cheaper than truckload, particularly on longer hauls over 1,200 miles. The Schneider product comes after competitor J.B. Hunt Transport Services launched the Quantum product in 2023 with a 95% on-time guarantee, which expanded into Mexico earlier this year. Similar to Quantum, Fast Track is planned “backward” from the point of delivery. Schneider will work with shippers to define what qualifies as on time — i.e. the delivery window of the shipper — and their speed requirements, before building a route that meets those expectations. “We begin by understanding what our customer is trying to accomplish,” Baumgardt said. “Then we determine what we are going to need to do differently, which may include alternative routings, longer drays, or skipping an interchange and using our asset-based truckload network. It could also mean changes from a customer at origin.” Schneider is likely to focus its efforts on Canadian Pacific Kansas City’s (CPKC’s) Mexico Midwest Express, where its single-line route is advertised as up to two days faster than competitors. However, Schneider said Fast Track will also include lanes with CSX Transportation and Union Pacific Railroad (UP), noting that it coordinated with all three railroads before launching. How Schneider plans to meet the 95% guarantee To execute the service guarantee, Schneider has worked with CPKC, CSX and UP on priority loading and unloading, a “first-on, first-off” approach similar to premium handling in ocean shipping. Schneider will also flag containers to ensure none are left behind when trains are full, akin to rolled cargo in ocean transportation. “We will work with the railroads to segregate these containers to ensure that they don’t get left behind,” Baumgardt said. “And if there needs to be a priority to get off the train to meet the customer’s needs, we’d work with the railroad on that too. Our teams are closely integrated with our rail partners on Fast Track.” Schneider shares a key advantage with J.B. Hunt: insourced chassis and drayage. Most containers move on company-operated tractors, and every container rides on Schneider-owned chassis, minimizing reliance on third parties for the first and final mile. Schneider also has more than 10,000 company tractors in its one-way and dedicated truckload divisions, which can step in when rail disruptions occur. If a train is delayed en route, the railroad can unload the container at the next available location and Schneider can complete the move via highway to honor the on-time guarantee. That flexibility is harder to replicate south of the border for J.B. Hunt and Schneider as neither have company assets there. “We have partnerships in Mexico and the types of carriers that we use, which we are very particular about, we’ve already had situation already where we’ve had to make changes on the fly and been very successful doing it,” Baumgardt said. “We have trusted third-party partners in Mexico that we know can deliver the security, capacity, and speed that would be required for Fast Track if it were to come to it.” Contact Ari Ashe at ari.ashe@spglobal.com .

Rail News

Intermodal providers

Schneider launches premium intermodal service with 95% on-time guarantee

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The United States Trade Representative also confirmed in a statement Sunday that planned 100% tariffs on China-built ship-to-shore cranes and other cargo handling equipment, due to take effect Monday, have also been suspended for a year.</div>

The United States Trade Representative also confirmed in a statement Sunday that planned 100% tariffs on China-built ship-to-shore cranes and other cargo handling equipment, due to take effect Monday, have also been suspended for a year.

<div class="phx-topic">The deal struck by the US and China to pause reciprocal port fees for one year starting Monday has generally been welcomed by shipping, agricultural and manufacturing interests as well as port industry players, the US Trade Representative said, although the move has been criticized by labor unions. The USTR said in a statement Sunday it received 73 responses during a 48-hour comment period it held last Thursday and Friday to garner feedback from the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-china-suspend-reciprocal-port-fees-as-part-of-wider-trade-deal-6105849">pause in port fees and tariffs targeting China</a>.“Many [respondents] noted that suspension of the action would lower shipping costs and avoid commercial disruption,” the USTR said, adding the pause would provide an opportunity for the US to negotiate with China “on the issues raised in this investigation and permit additional time to find solutions to increase investment in US shipbuilding.” The USTR also confirmed in its statement that planned 100% tariffs on China-built ship-to-shore cranes and other cargo handling equipment, due to take effect Monday, have also been suspended for a year. It said it is still accepting comments until Tuesday on proposals to impose tariffs of up to 150% on certain cargo handling equipment produced in China, including rubber tire gantry cranes and related components. But any action is likely to be stayed in the wake of the broad trade deal announced Oct. 30 between Washington and Beijing. Highlighting the advantages of the port fee suspension, Joe Kramek, president and CEO of the Washington, DC-based World Shipping Council, said the pause would support the "continued use of US small and medium-sized ports, and contribute to lower costs for US farmers and manufacturers who rely on ocean liner transportation to move $335 billion in American exports each year." Kramek was one of several respondents to call for the USTR to make the suspension permanent. More than 20 agricultural and farmer groups including cotton, citrus, almond, potato and dairy producers welcomed the port fee and tariff freeze, pointing out their ability to compete overseas would be otherwise undercut. “Additional costs from port fees or equipment tariffs would directly harm US farmers and exporters, reduce export opportunities and weaken rural economies that depend heavily on agricultural trade,” USA Pulses CEO Tim McGreevy said in the group’s submission. He also recommended agriculture’s “complete exemption from all related Section 301 fees, including port fees, vessel sourcing requirements, and tariffs on critical port equipment and components.” China’s Transport Ministry, meanwhile, confirmed it had suspended its reciprocal port fees on US-linked ships from 1 p.m. local time Monday. The measure applies to US-owned, -operated, -flagged or -controlled ships. <h3>Unions unhappy </h3>Not all those responding to the USTR welcomed the US pause in port fees, with shipyard-related unions saying US workers will be “pushed aside” by the decision. Suspending the port fee and related action “will continue to give China a free pass on its predatory behavior and will have far-reaching negative consequences as we attempt to restore America’s maritime sector,” four unions, including the United Steel Workers, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, and the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, said in a joint submission. The groups said there were early signs of a revitalization in US shipbuilding investment since the USTR announced its measures targeting China’s maritime sector last April, while order books at China’s shipyards have “declined at a more significant rate than during the COVID-19 pandemic.” The pause now means US workers “are again being pushed aside, even as new commercial orders — worth billions of dollars — flow back into Chinese shipyards,” the labor groups said. The unions were among five labor groups that filed a petition with the USTR in March 2024 that led to the USTR’s investigation into China’s dominance in the maritime and shipbuilding sectors, which subsequently resulted in October’s implementation of US port fees — and the reciprocal fees from China. Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>.</div>

The deal struck by the US and China to pause reciprocal port fees for one year starting Monday has generally been welcomed by shipping, agricultural and manufacturing interests as well as port industry players, the US Trade Representative said, although the move has been criticized by labor unions. The USTR said in a statement Sunday it received 73 responses during a 48-hour comment period it held last Thursday and Friday to garner feedback from the pause in port fees and tariffs targeting China . “Many [respondents] noted that suspension of the action would lower shipping costs and avoid commercial disruption,” the USTR said, adding the pause would provide an opportunity for the US to negotiate with China “on the issues raised in this investigation and permit additional time to find solutions to increase investment in US shipbuilding.” The USTR also confirmed in its statement that planned 100% tariffs on China-built ship-to-shore cranes and other cargo handling equipment, due to take effect Monday, have also been suspended for a year. It said it is still accepting comments until Tuesday on proposals to impose tariffs of up to 150% on certain cargo handling equipment produced in China, including rubber tire gantry cranes and related components. But any action is likely to be stayed in the wake of the broad trade deal announced Oct. 30 between Washington and Beijing. Highlighting the advantages of the port fee suspension, Joe Kramek, president and CEO of the Washington, DC-based World Shipping Council, said the pause would support the "continued use of US small and medium-sized ports, and contribute to lower costs for US farmers and manufacturers who rely on ocean liner transportation to move $335 billion in American exports each year." Kramek was one of several respondents to call for the USTR to make the suspension permanent. More than 20 agricultural and farmer groups including cotton, citrus, almond, potato and dairy producers welcomed the port fee and tariff freeze, pointing out their ability to compete overseas would be otherwise undercut. “Additional costs from port fees or equipment tariffs would directly harm US farmers and exporters, reduce export opportunities and weaken rural economies that depend heavily on agricultural trade,” USA Pulses CEO Tim McGreevy said in the group’s submission. He also recommended agriculture’s “complete exemption from all related Section 301 fees, including port fees, vessel sourcing requirements, and tariffs on critical port equipment and components.” China’s Transport Ministry, meanwhile, confirmed it had suspended its reciprocal port fees on US-linked ships from 1 p.m. local time Monday. The measure applies to US-owned, -operated, -flagged or -controlled ships. Unions unhappy Not all those responding to the USTR welcomed the US pause in port fees, with shipyard-related unions saying US workers will be “pushed aside” by the decision. Suspending the port fee and related action “will continue to give China a free pass on its predatory behavior and will have far-reaching negative consequences as we attempt to restore America’s maritime sector,” four unions, including the United Steel Workers, the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, and the International Brotherhood of Boilermakers, said in a joint submission. The groups said there were early signs of a revitalization in US shipbuilding investment since the USTR announced its measures targeting China’s maritime sector last April, while order books at China’s shipyards have “declined at a more significant rate than during the COVID-19 pandemic.” The pause now means US workers “are again being pushed aside, even as new commercial orders — worth billions of dollars — flow back into Chinese shipyards,” the labor groups said. The unions were among five labor groups that filed a petition with the USTR in March 2024 that led to the USTR’s investigation into China’s dominance in the maritime and shipbuilding sectors, which subsequently resulted in October’s implementation of US port fees — and the reciprocal fees from China. Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Trans-Pacific

International ports

USTR port fee pause broadly welcomed, but labor decries ‘free pass’ for China

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">If the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger proceeds, the balance of power inside a little-known cooperative that serves as the industry’s shared equipment pool could shift dramatically.</div>

If the proposed Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern merger proceeds, the balance of power inside a little-known cooperative that serves as the industry’s shared equipment pool could shift dramatically.

<div class="phx-topic">When your railroad says “no cars available,” the problem usually isn’t a shortage. It’s a cooperative most shippers have never heard of — one that controls nearly every intermodal container, autorack and flatcar in North America. And if the proposed Union Pacific (UP)–Norfolk Southern (NS) merger proceeds, the balance of power inside that cooperative could shift dramatically. That cooperative is TTX Company. While shippers and unions debate potential service disruptions and job losses from the $85 billion merger announced in July, a more fundamental question has gone unasked: What happens when one railroad becomes the dominant voice in the industry’s shared equipment pool? <h3>The system you didn’t know existed </h3>TTX manages approximately 177,000 well cars, flats, autoracks and boxcars, representing about $17 billion in assets. It’s a neutral pool owned collectively by the Class I railroads, operating under Surface Transportation Board (STB) oversight since 1974. The concept is simple: Competing railroads share rolling stock rather than hoarding it. When a car finishes one move, it can be loaded again immediately, regardless of whose track it’s on next. This model has saved the industry billions in duplicate investment and given shippers a measure of reliability in an otherwise fragmented system. Cars flow to demand, not ownership. Repairs are standardized. Procurement is centralized. Until now, no single railroad has had enough control to tilt the playing field. <h3>Why the merger changes everything </h3>The combined Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern network would span nearly 60% of US rail route miles across 43 states, likely making them TTX’s largest shareholder by a significant margin. On paper, neutrality is guaranteed through the STB’s pooling agreement. In practice, concentration of influence can change incentives subtly, but powerfully. Who prioritizes which lanes for car replacement? Who decides where limited heavy-duty flats or autoracks are deployed first? When I was at Maersk negotiating large-scale rail contracts, we constantly ran into a black hole of visibility. Equipment was technically available, but no one could pinpoint where it was or who controlled the next move. The pooling model made coordination possible, but it also made accountability diffuse. Now imagine that opacity combined with ownership concentration. A railroad controlling the largest stake in TTX doesn’t need to explicitly starve competitors of equipment. It just needs to optimize for its own network first. Repairs get prioritized in its lanes. New equipment gets spec’d for its corridors. Allocation algorithms favor its terminals. The result isn’t dramatic — it’s death by a thousand micro-decisions that tilt velocity in one direction. <h3>What gravity looks like </h3>Every time a major shipper changes carriers, the math inside the TTX pool shifts. Steel doesn’t teleport. Cars must physically migrate through the network, a process that can take weeks. Shortages often follow commercial wins because the new carrier gains the freight before it gains the equipment. Even in a neutral pool, gravity takes time to reset. Post-merger, that shock absorption could become selective. If car allocation subtly favors the combined UP-NS lanes, competitors lose not just freight; they lose the equipment velocity needed to compete for the next contract. <h3>What the STB should do </h3>The STB received formal notice of the merger on July 30, 2025. The railroads plan to file their full application by Jan. 29, 2026, triggering a 16-month statutory review. The STB has broad authority to preserve equilibrium through independent TTX governance, fleet-allocation audits and service-performance metrics tied to pooling access. Whether those powers are used will determine if TTX remains the stabilizer it was built to be, or becomes another lever of competitive advantage hidden inside consolidation. The 1996 Union Pacific-Southern Pacific merger produced what the head of the nation’s largest rail union called a “massive meltdown.” Service disruptions lasted months. The STB should apply those lessons to equipment pooling now, before approval — not after the damage is done. <h3>What shippers should ask now </h3>Most customers never deal directly with TTX, but they feel its influence in every service metric. Don’t wait until after the merger is approved. Start asking pointed questions now: How do you measure car velocity in my lanes? Who controls the pool cars that serve my freight? What protections ensure neutrality if ownership concentration shifts? If your railroad can’t answer clearly, you’re not buying transportation, you’re buying uncertainty. <h3>The bottom line </h3>TTX doesn’t appear in marketing campaigns, but its model — shared steel, shared access — keeps the industry balanced. The merger debate has focused on jobs, rates and service promises. But the real test will be whether a system designed for competition can survive when one player holds the dominant stake. Because when the pool tips, everyone feels it. And once gravity shifts, it doesn’t shift back. Paul Tonsager has held executive roles at Maersk, CN Rail, CN Worldwide, Coyote (RXO), and Patriot Rail. He is the founder of Integrated Multimodal Solutions LLC and author of the Substack newsletter Signals &amp; Switches. Contact him at  <a href="mailto:paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io">paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io</a>. </div>

When your railroad says “no cars available,” the problem usually isn’t a shortage. It’s a cooperative most shippers have never heard of — one that controls nearly every intermodal container, autorack and flatcar in North America. And if the proposed Union Pacific (UP)–Norfolk Southern (NS) merger proceeds, the balance of power inside that cooperative could shift dramatically. That cooperative is TTX Company. While shippers and unions debate potential service disruptions and job losses from the $85 billion merger announced in July, a more fundamental question has gone unasked: What happens when one railroad becomes the dominant voice in the industry’s shared equipment pool? The system you didn’t know existed TTX manages approximately 177,000 well cars, flats, autoracks and boxcars, representing about $17 billion in assets. It’s a neutral pool owned collectively by the Class I railroads, operating under Surface Transportation Board (STB) oversight since 1974. The concept is simple: Competing railroads share rolling stock rather than hoarding it. When a car finishes one move, it can be loaded again immediately, regardless of whose track it’s on next. This model has saved the industry billions in duplicate investment and given shippers a measure of reliability in an otherwise fragmented system. Cars flow to demand, not ownership. Repairs are standardized. Procurement is centralized. Until now, no single railroad has had enough control to tilt the playing field. Why the merger changes everything The combined Union Pacific–Norfolk Southern network would span nearly 60% of US rail route miles across 43 states, likely making them TTX’s largest shareholder by a significant margin. On paper, neutrality is guaranteed through the STB’s pooling agreement. In practice, concentration of influence can change incentives subtly, but powerfully. Who prioritizes which lanes for car replacement? Who decides where limited heavy-duty flats or autoracks are deployed first? When I was at Maersk negotiating large-scale rail contracts, we constantly ran into a black hole of visibility. Equipment was technically available, but no one could pinpoint where it was or who controlled the next move. The pooling model made coordination possible, but it also made accountability diffuse. Now imagine that opacity combined with ownership concentration. A railroad controlling the largest stake in TTX doesn’t need to explicitly starve competitors of equipment. It just needs to optimize for its own network first. Repairs get prioritized in its lanes. New equipment gets spec’d for its corridors. Allocation algorithms favor its terminals. The result isn’t dramatic — it’s death by a thousand micro-decisions that tilt velocity in one direction. What gravity looks like Every time a major shipper changes carriers, the math inside the TTX pool shifts. Steel doesn’t teleport. Cars must physically migrate through the network, a process that can take weeks. Shortages often follow commercial wins because the new carrier gains the freight before it gains the equipment. Even in a neutral pool, gravity takes time to reset. Post-merger, that shock absorption could become selective. If car allocation subtly favors the combined UP-NS lanes, competitors lose not just freight; they lose the equipment velocity needed to compete for the next contract. What the STB should do The STB received formal notice of the merger on July 30, 2025. The railroads plan to file their full application by Jan. 29, 2026, triggering a 16-month statutory review. The STB has broad authority to preserve equilibrium through independent TTX governance, fleet-allocation audits and service-performance metrics tied to pooling access. Whether those powers are used will determine if TTX remains the stabilizer it was built to be, or becomes another lever of competitive advantage hidden inside consolidation. The 1996 Union Pacific-Southern Pacific merger produced what the head of the nation’s largest rail union called a “massive meltdown.” Service disruptions lasted months. The STB should apply those lessons to equipment pooling now, before approval — not after the damage is done. What shippers should ask now Most customers never deal directly with TTX, but they feel its influence in every service metric. Don’t wait until after the merger is approved. Start asking pointed questions now: How do you measure car velocity in my lanes? Who controls the pool cars that serve my freight? What protections ensure neutrality if ownership concentration shifts? If your railroad can’t answer clearly, you’re not buying transportation, you’re buying uncertainty. The bottom line TTX doesn’t appear in marketing campaigns, but its model — shared steel, shared access — keeps the industry balanced. The merger debate has focused on jobs, rates and service promises. But the real test will be whether a system designed for competition can survive when one player holds the dominant stake. Because when the pool tips, everyone feels it. And once gravity shifts, it doesn’t shift back. Paul Tonsager has held executive roles at Maersk, CN Rail, CN Worldwide, Coyote (RXO), and Patriot Rail. He is the founder of Integrated Multimodal Solutions LLC and author of the Substack newsletter Signals & Switches. Contact him at   paul.tonsager@multimodalsolutions.io .

North-American rail

Surface

UP-NS merger could mean new dominant voice inside rail industry cooperative

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The LTL world of 2025 does not reward those who guess, but rather those who know — and knowing begins with visibility. </div>

The LTL world of 2025 does not reward those who guess, but rather those who know — and knowing begins with visibility.

<div class="phx-topic">The US less-than-truckload (LTL) sector stands at a critical crossroads. Faced with depressed demand, high operating costs, economic uncertainty and rising customer expectations, LTL carriers, brokers and shippers are under mounting pressure to do more with less. Efficiency, accuracy and transparency have never been more vital. Even as some aspects of LTL have modernized, persistent blind spots still drain time, revenue and customer satisfaction. Accessorial management and location visibility remain at the heart of operational performance and profitability in the LTL sector, and companies must solve these challenges to thrive in this freight environment. Accessorial charges are often treated as the fine print of freight, but their financial impact is anything but small. These additional fees, covering services such as liftgate usage, residential delivery, limited-access sites and inside delivery are frequently not accounted for until after a delivery is completed. At that point, shippers receive unexpected invoices, brokers scramble to reconcile charges, and carriers are left fielding disputes that strain valuable relationships and negatively impact their bottom line. Without an accurate, upfront method of identifying potential accessorials, companies lose control over cost predictability. This unpredictability does more than damage budgets. It undermines long-term rate negotiations and muddies performance metrics such as cost per shipment and gross margin. Billing disputes over accessorials can also slow down cash flow and stretch out time-to-payment cycles. As the logistics sector faces tighter margins and rising customer expectations, these seemingly minor charges can add up to major financial consequences. Location data is another underestimated factor that directly impacts LTL performance. While most transportation management systems (TMSs) offer basic shipment tracking, they often lack granular location insights. This includes data points such as whether a site is residential or commercial, whether there is dock access or a forklift onsite, or if the delivery site has limited hours or requires specialized entry. These details may seem minor, but their absence leads to service mismatches, re-delivery attempts, extended dwell times and more accessorial charges. For example, failing to flag a residential delivery that requires a liftgate can result in a surprise fee and an unhappy customer. A shipment bound for a military base or an airport without the right equipment or credentials can create costly delays and failed deliveries. Inaccurate or incomplete location information does more than increase costs — it erodes operational agility. <h3>Technology can ease challenges </h3>The good news is that technology now exists to solve these challenges at scale. New platforms that leverage AI, machine learning and geospatial data are transforming how logistics professionals manage LTL freight. These tools can identify potential accessorial charges before the freight is tendered, analyze delivery site characteristics in real time and deliver a unified accessorial view across all stakeholders. By automating accessorial identification during order entry and integrating precise location attributes such as limited access, loading dock availability, forklifts on site or gated entry, these platforms allow teams to move from reactive firefighting to proactive planning. With real-time alerts and API integrations that connect directly into a TMS, shippers, brokers and carriers can operate from a shared source of accessorial truth. The impact of smarter accessorial identification and location visibility delivers measurable results. Companies that have adopted these advanced solutions have reported a 75% reduction in unexpected accessorial fees, leading to cleaner invoices and faster dispute resolution. Customers have also seen improved on-time in-full (OTIF) performance, driving higher customer satisfaction and stronger service-level agreement (SLA) compliance. This shift is particularly timely in 2025, as the LTL industry grapples with economic volatility, rising operating costs and major classification changes. Freight volumes are inconsistent, carriers are prioritizing profitability over market share, and the new National Motor Freight Traffic Association density-based classification system is forcing shippers to re-evaluate how they package and price freight. In this environment, hidden costs such as accessorials and inefficiencies tied to poor location visibility can erode already thin margins. With shifting demand, cost inflation and operational headwinds, the ability to forecast costs, identify risks and plan accordingly has become a key competitive advantage. In the past, accessorial management and granular location visibility may have been viewed as optional enhancements. Today, they are essential for any company that relies on LTL shipping as a core part of its logistics strategy. When customer expectations are rising and disruptions are the new norm, having visibility into every shipment detail and every delivery site is table stakes. The LTL world of 2025 does not reward those who guess. It rewards those who know, and knowing begins with visibility. North Winship is president of Shiplify. Contact him at <a href="mailto:northw@shiplify.com">northw@shiplify.com</a>. Bart De Muynck is a strategic advisor for Drewry. Contact him at <a href="mailto:bart@bartdemuynck.com">bart@bartdemuynck.com</a>. </div>

The US less-than-truckload (LTL) sector stands at a critical crossroads. Faced with depressed demand, high operating costs, economic uncertainty and rising customer expectations, LTL carriers, brokers and shippers are under mounting pressure to do more with less. Efficiency, accuracy and transparency have never been more vital. Even as some aspects of LTL have modernized, persistent blind spots still drain time, revenue and customer satisfaction. Accessorial management and location visibility remain at the heart of operational performance and profitability in the LTL sector, and companies must solve these challenges to thrive in this freight environment. Accessorial charges are often treated as the fine print of freight, but their financial impact is anything but small. These additional fees, covering services such as liftgate usage, residential delivery, limited-access sites and inside delivery are frequently not accounted for until after a delivery is completed. At that point, shippers receive unexpected invoices, brokers scramble to reconcile charges, and carriers are left fielding disputes that strain valuable relationships and negatively impact their bottom line. Without an accurate, upfront method of identifying potential accessorials, companies lose control over cost predictability. This unpredictability does more than damage budgets. It undermines long-term rate negotiations and muddies performance metrics such as cost per shipment and gross margin. Billing disputes over accessorials can also slow down cash flow and stretch out time-to-payment cycles. As the logistics sector faces tighter margins and rising customer expectations, these seemingly minor charges can add up to major financial consequences. Location data is another underestimated factor that directly impacts LTL performance. While most transportation management systems (TMSs) offer basic shipment tracking, they often lack granular location insights. This includes data points such as whether a site is residential or commercial, whether there is dock access or a forklift onsite, or if the delivery site has limited hours or requires specialized entry. These details may seem minor, but their absence leads to service mismatches, re-delivery attempts, extended dwell times and more accessorial charges. For example, failing to flag a residential delivery that requires a liftgate can result in a surprise fee and an unhappy customer. A shipment bound for a military base or an airport without the right equipment or credentials can create costly delays and failed deliveries. Inaccurate or incomplete location information does more than increase costs — it erodes operational agility. Technology can ease challenges The good news is that technology now exists to solve these challenges at scale. New platforms that leverage AI, machine learning and geospatial data are transforming how logistics professionals manage LTL freight. These tools can identify potential accessorial charges before the freight is tendered, analyze delivery site characteristics in real time and deliver a unified accessorial view across all stakeholders. By automating accessorial identification during order entry and integrating precise location attributes such as limited access, loading dock availability, forklifts on site or gated entry, these platforms allow teams to move from reactive firefighting to proactive planning. With real-time alerts and API integrations that connect directly into a TMS, shippers, brokers and carriers can operate from a shared source of accessorial truth. The impact of smarter accessorial identification and location visibility delivers measurable results. Companies that have adopted these advanced solutions have reported a 75% reduction in unexpected accessorial fees, leading to cleaner invoices and faster dispute resolution. Customers have also seen improved on-time in-full (OTIF) performance, driving higher customer satisfaction and stronger service-level agreement (SLA) compliance. This shift is particularly timely in 2025, as the LTL industry grapples with economic volatility, rising operating costs and major classification changes. Freight volumes are inconsistent, carriers are prioritizing profitability over market share, and the new National Motor Freight Traffic Association density-based classification system is forcing shippers to re-evaluate how they package and price freight. In this environment, hidden costs such as accessorials and inefficiencies tied to poor location visibility can erode already thin margins. With shifting demand, cost inflation and operational headwinds, the ability to forecast costs, identify risks and plan accordingly has become a key competitive advantage. In the past, accessorial management and granular location visibility may have been viewed as optional enhancements. Today, they are essential for any company that relies on LTL shipping as a core part of its logistics strategy. When customer expectations are rising and disruptions are the new norm, having visibility into every shipment detail and every delivery site is table stakes. The LTL world of 2025 does not reward those who guess. It rewards those who know, and knowing begins with visibility. North Winship is president of Shiplify. Contact him at northw@shiplify.com . Bart De Muynck is a strategic advisor for Drewry. Contact him at bart@bartdemuynck.com .

Trucking News

Visibility transforming accessorial and location insights in LTL shipping

Notes: Index base = 100; the higher the value, the greater intermodal savings compared with truckload

Spot ISI

Contract ISI

The Journal of Commerce Intermodal Savings Indices (ISIs) measure the average differential between rates for US domestic intermodal rail and truckload service — both spot and contract — across 120 lanes by sending estimates to third-party logistics providers (3PLs) and shippers to review. The estimates include margins and fuel but exclude accessorial charges such as detention, demurrage (storage fees), excessive per diem, lumper fees and other fees. ISI data partners include DAT Freight & Analytics, the International Association of North America (IANA), InTek Freight and Logistics, Loadsmart, and Sunset Transport.

US Spot and Contract Intermodal Savings Indices (JOC)

JOC Intermodal Savings Index Rolling 3-Month Average Gateway

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">LTL carriers are reining in capital spending on property, holding new terminals and doors in reserve as they await a hoped-for turnaround in freight demand in 2026. </div>

LTL carriers are reining in capital spending on property, holding new terminals and doors in reserve as they await a hoped-for turnaround in freight demand in 2026.

<div class="phx-topic">The less-than-truckload (LTL) land rush in the US is nearing its end as bankrupt Yellow runs out of terminals to sell and potential buyers run out of freight to fill them. Despite the sale of <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/yellow-terminal-auction-redrawing-us-ltl-map-as-pricing-surge-subsides-5222598">hundreds of properties</a> and the construction of many new terminals over the last two years, the LTL sector still has less capacity than it did before Yellow’s collapse in 2023. That capacity shortfall has supported higher LTL pricing. The US long-distance LTL producer price index, a measure of all-inclusive pricing, was up 10.5% year over year in August, before the US government shutdown. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="b8bff0bb-e602-4052-88a8-7955d25f97d2"></dynamic-object></div>“If you look at pre-Yellow and post-Yellow, the number of doors is down about 6%,” Mario Harik, XPO CEO, told the Journal of Commerce. “The number of terminals is down by a similar amount.” Compared with 2020, however, LTL capacity is down about 10%, Harik said. Demand for LTL freight services, however, is dropping, too, with publicly-owned LTL carriers reporting a year-over-year <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/top-ltl-carriers-maintain-profit-while-planning-paths-to-freight-recovery-6105968">decline in daily shipments</a>. A bleak freight outlook has carriers putting network expansion plans on hold, or at least slowing them down. “We haven’t opened any service centers this year,” Adam Satterfield, CFO of Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), told analysts during a third-quarter earnings call last week. That’s a unique statement coming from an LTL executive. ODFL — the second-largest US LTL provider ranked by revenue — was one of the few large LTL carriers to abstain from the rush to buy terminals from bankrupt Yellow in 2023 and 2024. “I think we’ve opened six service centers going back to the end of 2022, so we definitely have built up some capacity,” Satterfield said. In contrast, Saia has opened 39 terminals since 2022 and 17 in the past year, most of them purchased from Yellow. Estes Express Lines purchased 37 owned and leased terminals from Yellow since 2022, and XPO acquired 28 Yellow terminals. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, R+L Carriers, ArcBest’s ABF Freight System, Central Transport, Pitt Ohio, A. Duie Pyle and <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/ltl-carriers-expanding-us-networks-despite-low-freight-demand-6053685">Roadrunner</a> all joined the real estate rush. That rush has now slowed to a trickle. Yellow had four carrier subsidiaries with 308 terminals at the end of 2022. Through partnerships with Ducera and CBRE, Yellow reached out to approximately 650 potential buyers and entered nondisclosure agreements with 400 of them, according to court filings. As of October, the company had just eight facilities left, according to bankruptcy court filings, including a 426-door facility in Chicago Heights, Illinois. ArcBest purchased an 18-door Montgomery, Alabama, terminal from Yellow in October for $375,000, and three other facilities were acquired by real estate developers. <h3>Slowing down </h3>Yellow’s bankruptcy was the opportunity of a generation for competitors that had plenty of cash but were hemmed in when it came to property needed to expand. “Our nationwide footprint allows us to build deeper relationships with customers, and we’re seeing the benefit of the investments made in our network,” Saia President and CEO Frederick Holzgrefe said during an earnings call last week. Saia’s new terminals have contributed a proportionally greater share of freight than its existing properties and likely helped Saia limit its year-over-year decline in daily shipment volume to 1.9% in the third quarter. And its expansion isn’t done, CFO Matthew Batteh said during the call. “We still have opportunities and dots we need to put on the map,” he said. But Saia sees slow growth ahead, and that will temper its expectations for expansion. “We’re slowing capital investment ... and making sure we’re in a position to take advantage of the opportunities that will inevitably be there for us,” Holzgrefe said. Knight-Swift, which leaped into the LTL market in 2021 with the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/knight-swift-combining-ltl-subsidiaries-to-form-one-carrier-under-act-brand-6102388">purchase of AAA Cooper Transportation</a> and purchased more than 25 terminals from Yellow, opened one new service center in the third quarter and replaced two smaller sites with larger facilities. “We still feel very encouraged that we’ll see growth in our existing network that we have without opening many properties here in the near term,” CEO Adam Miller said last week. ODFL is holding some planned terminals and capacity “in reserve,” said Satterfield. “We just think it’s more appropriate to hold them out versus increasing the number of service centers in operation, which increases line-haul expense, weakens your density even further and puts more pressure on the costs,” he told analysts. But Satterfield also believes there is less LTL capacity available today, even with excess capacity running as high as 30% in ODFL’s network. “I think what we know was a capacity-constrained environment in 2022 will be even more capacity constrained when we do eventually get into the upcycle,” he said. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

The less-than-truckload (LTL) land rush in the US is nearing its end as bankrupt Yellow runs out of terminals to sell and potential buyers run out of freight to fill them. Despite the sale of hundreds of properties and the construction of many new terminals over the last two years, the LTL sector still has less capacity than it did before Yellow’s collapse in 2023. That capacity shortfall has supported higher LTL pricing. The US long-distance LTL producer price index, a measure of all-inclusive pricing, was up 10.5% year over year in August, before the US government shutdown. “If you look at pre-Yellow and post-Yellow, the number of doors is down about 6%,” Mario Harik, XPO CEO, told the Journal of Commerce. “The number of terminals is down by a similar amount.” Compared with 2020, however, LTL capacity is down about 10%, Harik said. Demand for LTL freight services, however, is dropping, too, with publicly-owned LTL carriers reporting a year-over-year decline in daily shipments . A bleak freight outlook has carriers putting network expansion plans on hold, or at least slowing them down. “We haven’t opened any service centers this year,” Adam Satterfield, CFO of Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), told analysts during a third-quarter earnings call last week. That’s a unique statement coming from an LTL executive. ODFL — the second-largest US LTL provider ranked by revenue — was one of the few large LTL carriers to abstain from the rush to buy terminals from bankrupt Yellow in 2023 and 2024. “I think we’ve opened six service centers going back to the end of 2022, so we definitely have built up some capacity,” Satterfield said. In contrast, Saia has opened 39 terminals since 2022 and 17 in the past year, most of them purchased from Yellow. Estes Express Lines purchased 37 owned and leased terminals from Yellow since 2022, and XPO acquired 28 Yellow terminals. Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, R+L Carriers, ArcBest’s ABF Freight System, Central Transport, Pitt Ohio, A. Duie Pyle and Roadrunner all joined the real estate rush. That rush has now slowed to a trickle. Yellow had four carrier subsidiaries with 308 terminals at the end of 2022. Through partnerships with Ducera and CBRE, Yellow reached out to approximately 650 potential buyers and entered nondisclosure agreements with 400 of them, according to court filings. As of October, the company had just eight facilities left, according to bankruptcy court filings, including a 426-door facility in Chicago Heights, Illinois. ArcBest purchased an 18-door Montgomery, Alabama, terminal from Yellow in October for $375,000, and three other facilities were acquired by real estate developers. Slowing down Yellow’s bankruptcy was the opportunity of a generation for competitors that had plenty of cash but were hemmed in when it came to property needed to expand. “Our nationwide footprint allows us to build deeper relationships with customers, and we’re seeing the benefit of the investments made in our network,” Saia President and CEO Frederick Holzgrefe said during an earnings call last week. Saia’s new terminals have contributed a proportionally greater share of freight than its existing properties and likely helped Saia limit its year-over-year decline in daily shipment volume to 1.9% in the third quarter. And its expansion isn’t done, CFO Matthew Batteh said during the call. “We still have opportunities and dots we need to put on the map,” he said. But Saia sees slow growth ahead, and that will temper its expectations for expansion. “We’re slowing capital investment ... and making sure we’re in a position to take advantage of the opportunities that will inevitably be there for us,” Holzgrefe said. Knight-Swift, which leaped into the LTL market in 2021 with the purchase of AAA Cooper Transportation and purchased more than 25 terminals from Yellow, opened one new service center in the third quarter and replaced two smaller sites with larger facilities. “We still feel very encouraged that we’ll see growth in our existing network that we have without opening many properties here in the near term,” CEO Adam Miller said last week. ODFL is holding some planned terminals and capacity “in reserve,” said Satterfield. “We just think it’s more appropriate to hold them out versus increasing the number of service centers in operation, which increases line-haul expense, weakens your density even further and puts more pressure on the costs,” he told analysts. But Satterfield also believes there is less LTL capacity available today, even with excess capacity running as high as 30% in ODFL’s network. “I think what we know was a capacity-constrained environment in 2022 will be even more capacity constrained when we do eventually get into the upcycle,” he said. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

US LTL ‘land rush’ reaches its end amid long-term freight decline

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Even another round of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical concerns would be unlikely to blunt the growth, with airlines able to rapidly adjust capacity to support shifting trade flows, delegates at a global air cargo forum were told.</div>

Even another round of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical concerns would be unlikely to blunt the growth, with airlines able to rapidly adjust capacity to support shifting trade flows, delegates at a global air cargo forum were told.

<div class="phx-topic">ABU DHABI — Global air cargo recorded its 26th consecutive month of growth in October, with solid demand across leading air freight verticals expected to continue into 2026, air cargo executives say. Even another round of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty would be unlikely to stop this growth, with airlines able to rapidly adjust capacity to support another shift in trade flows, delegates at The International Air Cargo Association’s (Tiaca’s) annual Air Cargo Forum were told Tuesday. “We have had such a long stretch when it comes to air freight growth,” said Stefan Krikken, global head of air freight at forwarder DSV. “The peak is relatively slow this year, but there’s still a lot of positive momentum in cloud computing, e-commerce, [and] aerospace, as well as the trade shifts. “The verticals in air freight are becoming more sophisticated and demanding ... the shifts into Southeast Asia markets, like Vietnam, Thailand, [and] the Indian subcontinent are really giving us opportunities to create new solutions, so it is looking very positive for 2026,” Krikken added Ryan Keyrouse, CEO of air freight analyst Rotate, warned that the 26 months of uninterrupted growth could not continue forever, but he agreed there were “quite some reasons” to be optimistic. “The US inventory-to-sales ratio has been positive for seven of the last eight months, a good sign for air cargo,” Keyrouse told the Tiaca forum. “Freighter utilization in October was also at a record 15 block hours per day on average, which is another sign of solid demand.” Global volume from January through October is up 3.9% year over year while capacity expanded 6%, Rotate data shows. But the shift in trade as China focused on other markets has left lanes out of Vietnam and Malaysia facing significant capacity pressure. Still, there are areas of concern in global air freight. On the “caution” side of the scale, Keyrouse placed steadily improving ocean schedule reliability that is pushing down rates and attracting discretionary cargo to switch from air freight. Also among trade destabilizing factors are the unpredictable US tariffs, and although Keyrouse agreed the tariffs introduced uncertainty into cargo markets, he argued that carriers were able to quickly move freighters around as demand shifted away from China-US routes after the Trump administration announced its broad global tariffs on April 2. “The US tariff uncertainty is a reason to be unsure, and who knows what could happen next on any given morning, but we’ve had tariffs this year and it’s only shifted supply chains,” Keyrouse said. “The aircraft industry has proven itself to be resilient in shifting capacity and just continuing to grow.” <h3>Good year expected for air cargo </h3>The positive expectation for 2026 was repeated often at the Tiaca conference. Martin Drew, chief strategy and transformation officer at Atlas Air Worldwide, said some of the volume that left the trans-Pacific is now returning as complex customs clearance formalities following the removal of US de minimis exemptions were being ironed out. Jeroen Giling, senior vice president of cargo for continental Europe at Swissport, said 2025 started slowly with the China-US tariffs on low-value e-commerce goods roiling the market, but activity has steadily picked up on other trades. “The e-commerce from China into the US slowed with a massive [shift] to Europe, and we have seen a huge amount of business with the expectations for 2026 more positive,” he said. Other market players have been untouched by the US tariff-driven volatility in demand. Taiwan-based Morrison Express CEO Asok Kumar noted the all-cargo carrier was headquartered in the semiconductor capital of the world. “We’re in a very privileged position and our company has not seen a decline in volume this year,” Kumar said. “We’re in a very sweet spot in terms of our position and we’re very optimistic for next year.” Contact Greg Knowler at <a href="mailto:greg.knowler@spglobal.com">greg.knowler@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

ABU DHABI — Global air cargo recorded its 26th consecutive month of growth in October, with solid demand across leading air freight verticals expected to continue into 2026, air cargo executives say. Even another round of US tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty would be unlikely to stop this growth, with airlines able to rapidly adjust capacity to support another shift in trade flows, delegates at The International Air Cargo Association’s (Tiaca’s) annual Air Cargo Forum were told Tuesday. “We have had such a long stretch when it comes to air freight growth,” said Stefan Krikken, global head of air freight at forwarder DSV. “The peak is relatively slow this year, but there’s still a lot of positive momentum in cloud computing, e-commerce, [and] aerospace, as well as the trade shifts. “The verticals in air freight are becoming more sophisticated and demanding ... the shifts into Southeast Asia markets, like Vietnam, Thailand, [and] the Indian subcontinent are really giving us opportunities to create new solutions, so it is looking very positive for 2026,” Krikken added Ryan Keyrouse, CEO of air freight analyst Rotate, warned that the 26 months of uninterrupted growth could not continue forever, but he agreed there were “quite some reasons” to be optimistic. “The US inventory-to-sales ratio has been positive for seven of the last eight months, a good sign for air cargo,” Keyrouse told the Tiaca forum. “Freighter utilization in October was also at a record 15 block hours per day on average, which is another sign of solid demand.” Global volume from January through October is up 3.9% year over year while capacity expanded 6%, Rotate data shows. But the shift in trade as China focused on other markets has left lanes out of Vietnam and Malaysia facing significant capacity pressure. Still, there are areas of concern in global air freight. On the “caution” side of the scale, Keyrouse placed steadily improving ocean schedule reliability that is pushing down rates and attracting discretionary cargo to switch from air freight. Also among trade destabilizing factors are the unpredictable US tariffs, and although Keyrouse agreed the tariffs introduced uncertainty into cargo markets, he argued that carriers were able to quickly move freighters around as demand shifted away from China-US routes after the Trump administration announced its broad global tariffs on April 2. “The US tariff uncertainty is a reason to be unsure, and who knows what could happen next on any given morning, but we’ve had tariffs this year and it’s only shifted supply chains,” Keyrouse said. “The aircraft industry has proven itself to be resilient in shifting capacity and just continuing to grow.” Good year expected for air cargo The positive expectation for 2026 was repeated often at the Tiaca conference. Martin Drew, chief strategy and transformation officer at Atlas Air Worldwide, said some of the volume that left the trans-Pacific is now returning as complex customs clearance formalities following the removal of US de minimis exemptions were being ironed out. Jeroen Giling, senior vice president of cargo for continental Europe at Swissport, said 2025 started slowly with the China-US tariffs on low-value e-commerce goods roiling the market, but activity has steadily picked up on other trades. “The e-commerce from China into the US slowed with a massive [shift] to Europe, and we have seen a huge amount of business with the expectations for 2026 more positive,” he said. Other market players have been untouched by the US tariff-driven volatility in demand. Taiwan-based Morrison Express CEO Asok Kumar noted the all-cargo carrier was headquartered in the semiconductor capital of the world. “We’re in a very privileged position and our company has not seen a decline in volume this year,” Kumar said. “We’re in a very sweet spot in terms of our position and we’re very optimistic for next year.” Contact Greg Knowler at greg.knowler@spglobal.com .

Air Cargo Carriers News

Air Cargo

Air freight growth remains solid as verticals support nonstop momentum

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">Beijing is expected to soon announce the start date of its own 12-month pause on reciprocal port fees on US ships, a deal that was agreed to last week as part of a broad trade framework hammered out by the two superpowers.</div>

Beijing is expected to soon announce the start date of its own 12-month pause on reciprocal port fees on US ships, a deal that was agreed to last week as part of a broad trade framework hammered out by the two superpowers.

<div class="phx-topic">The year-long pause on US port fees for Chinese-operated or -built ships, <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-china-suspend-reciprocal-port-fees-as-part-of-wider-trade-deal-6105849">agreed to last week between US and Chinese officials</a>, will start on Nov. 10, the White House announced Saturday. The move will pave the way for China to lift its retaliatory port fees on US-owned and -controlled vessels, although there was no immediate response from Beijing whether its suspension of port charges will occur on the same day as the US action. But one Hong Kong-based analyst expected China to end its charges on Nov. 10 or shortly after, repeating what happened when China followed the US in imposing reciprocal port call charges on Oct. 14. During the 12-month pause in port fees, “the US will negotiate with China” over Beijing’s alleged dominance in the maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors, the White House statement said, without giving further details. Those talks would take place while the US continued “its historic cooperation with the Republic of Korea and Japan on revitalizing American shipbuilding,” the statement added. The Nov. 10 date was announced in a statement that also gave further details of the trade concessions agreed to by both sides during talks in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Oct. 26 and confirmed by presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at their meeting in South Korea last Thursday. The broad agreement will see China purchase at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans during the last two months of this year and buy at least 25 million metric tons a year in 2026, 2027 and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of US sorghum and hardwood logs. China will also suspend all the retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4, including levies “on a vast swath of US agricultural products including chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products,” the White House statement said. China will suspend or remove all retaliatory non-tariff countermeasures taken against the US since March, the statement added. “China will further extend the expiration of its market-based tariff exclusion process for imports from the United States and exclusions will remain valid until Dec. 31, 2026,” the White House said. “China will terminate its various investigations targeting US companies in the semiconductor supply chain, including its antitrust, anti-monopoly, and anti-dumping investigations." The White House did not give any timeframe for China’s implementation of the trade concessions. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="a08410a8-0b00-4c48-9ef6-78b6354f0678"></dynamic-object></div>For its part, the US will end the 10% so-called “fentanyl tariffs” on Nov. 10 and maintain its suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports until Nov. 10, 2026. The current 10% reciprocal tariff will remain in effect during the suspension period, the statement said. US imports from China have fallen sharply since mid-year amid the trade dispute. Imports hit 984,280 TEUs in July, the second-highest mark in 2025, then fell in August and September, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. <h3>Questions remain </h3>Despite the US-China deal on port fees, Brian Maloney, a partner at New York-based law firm Seward &amp; Kissel’s maritime and transportation group, said there are still many questions to be answered. “Will this apply to foreign-built vehicle carriers and ro/ro vessels or will the pause apply only to the fees for Chinese-owned, -operated or -built vessels?,” Maloney said. “When will the Chinese response pause kick in, which could matter for vessels actively trading? And will either country extend retroactive relief to Oct. 14?” Lars Jensen, CEO of consultant Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce contributor, said the lower tariffs open a window of opportunity for US shippers. “The question is whether it will prompt a boost in shipments — effectively pulling the seasonal boost from Chinese New Year forward by more than a month,” Jensen said <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7391046713332875264/">in a LinkedIn post Monday</a>. “The coming weeks will show whether this is going to happen, or whether US importers see the upside of lower tariffs more than counteracted by a risk of consumer spending slowdown in the US.” Jensen pointed out that shippers will have to go through the details of how the deal impacts them specifically. “But it is important to note here that almost all US actions are temporary in the sense that actions are merely paused until Nov. 10, 2026,” he wrote. “This means that more trade talks will have to happen prior to that date, and with this comes the risk of more changes [positive or negative]." Contact Keith Wallis at <a href="mailto:keithwallis@hotmail.com">keithwallis@hotmail.com</a>. </div>

The year-long pause on US port fees for Chinese-operated or -built ships, agreed to last week between US and Chinese officials , will start on Nov. 10, the White House announced Saturday. The move will pave the way for China to lift its retaliatory port fees on US-owned and -controlled vessels, although there was no immediate response from Beijing whether its suspension of port charges will occur on the same day as the US action. But one Hong Kong-based analyst expected China to end its charges on Nov. 10 or shortly after, repeating what happened when China followed the US in imposing reciprocal port call charges on Oct. 14. During the 12-month pause in port fees, “the US will negotiate with China” over Beijing’s alleged dominance in the maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors, the White House statement said, without giving further details. Those talks would take place while the US continued “its historic cooperation with the Republic of Korea and Japan on revitalizing American shipbuilding,” the statement added. The Nov. 10 date was announced in a statement that also gave further details of the trade concessions agreed to by both sides during talks in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Oct. 26 and confirmed by presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at their meeting in South Korea last Thursday. The broad agreement will see China purchase at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans during the last two months of this year and buy at least 25 million metric tons a year in 2026, 2027 and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of US sorghum and hardwood logs. China will also suspend all the retaliatory tariffs announced since March 4, including levies “on a vast swath of US agricultural products including chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products,” the White House statement said. China will suspend or remove all retaliatory non-tariff countermeasures taken against the US since March, the statement added. “China will further extend the expiration of its market-based tariff exclusion process for imports from the United States and exclusions will remain valid until Dec. 31, 2026,” the White House said. “China will terminate its various investigations targeting US companies in the semiconductor supply chain, including its antitrust, anti-monopoly, and anti-dumping investigations." The White House did not give any timeframe for China’s implementation of the trade concessions. For its part, the US will end the 10% so-called “fentanyl tariffs” on Nov. 10 and maintain its suspension of heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports until Nov. 10, 2026. The current 10% reciprocal tariff will remain in effect during the suspension period, the statement said. US imports from China have fallen sharply since mid-year amid the trade dispute. Imports hit 984,280 TEUs in July, the second-highest mark in 2025, then fell in August and September, according to PIERS, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. Questions remain Despite the US-China deal on port fees, Brian Maloney, a partner at New York-based law firm Seward & Kissel’s maritime and transportation group, said there are still many questions to be answered. “Will this apply to foreign-built vehicle carriers and ro/ro vessels or will the pause apply only to the fees for Chinese-owned, -operated or -built vessels?,” Maloney said. “When will the Chinese response pause kick in, which could matter for vessels actively trading? And will either country extend retroactive relief to Oct. 14?” Lars Jensen, CEO of consultant Vespucci Maritime and a Journal of Commerce contributor, said the lower tariffs open a window of opportunity for US shippers. “The question is whether it will prompt a boost in shipments — effectively pulling the seasonal boost from Chinese New Year forward by more than a month,” Jensen said in a LinkedIn post Monday . “The coming weeks will show whether this is going to happen, or whether US importers see the upside of lower tariffs more than counteracted by a risk of consumer spending slowdown in the US.” Jensen pointed out that shippers will have to go through the details of how the deal impacts them specifically. “But it is important to note here that almost all US actions are temporary in the sense that actions are merely paused until Nov. 10, 2026,” he wrote. “This means that more trade talks will have to happen prior to that date, and with this comes the risk of more changes [positive or negative]." Contact Keith Wallis at keithwallis@hotmail.com .

Year-long pause on US port fees targeting China vessels to start Nov. 10

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The world of LTL is slow to embrace change. Business anachronisms permeate current supply chain processes. These vestiges of the way things used to work define the LTL freight transportation procurement process of many modern shippers.David Knuth, logistics specialist at IEWC, a global supplier of cable and wire based in Wisconsin, is happy to have modernized the RFP process, automating the entire LTL bidding procedure with Bid$ense, SMC³’s automated truckload and LTL freight transportation sourcing solution. But when prompted, he can still recall what once was.In his previous job, a large part of his duties were consumed by creating an intermodal bid package for carriers. In a spreadsheet, Knuth detailed the company’s volumes lane by lane, taking care to delete any errant keystrokes or misleading data. He would then email out the information to each carrier, taking time to respond to detailed technical questions about the spreadsheet data. Finally, he had to compile all the results, create an algorithm that would compare the carriers on each lane, and award the business.“It was a huge undertaking. It took about four months to do,” Knuth said of the old process. “It was almost a full-time job for that part of the year, every year.”In his new job at IEWC, he sat down with Bid$ense on day one and was amazed at the capabilities. Knuth had never before used a bid tool. SMC³’s latest versions of Bid$ense automate the process even further, taking truckload and LTL RFPs entirely online. The tool draws on RFP best-practices protocols to streamline the bidding communication process, enabling bidding carriers to respond accurately and promptly to shipper requests. The solution also does all the distribution work automatically, electronically submitting shipper bid data to carriers based on their actual service capabilities and performance records. Carriers are alerted with timely prompts for RFP deliverables, so shippers aren’t waiting by the phone for responses.Another benefit of automating the process is the data-cleansing assistance. When Knuth sent spreadsheets to carriers, data errors might cloud the bidding process; he might have to resend data or simply accept a price that did not truly reflect the costs of doing business. Data cleansing is incredibly beneficial, he said.The spreadsheet technique also made bidding analysis an onerous task. Since Bid$ense automates and streamlines the entire RFP process, intensive examination is now simple. SMC³ knows that each bid has more than one best outcome. With uniform responses from each carrier, shippers can quickly rank results and create an unlimited quantity of what-if scenarios to make the optimal procurement decision.Jesse Burnett of Central Garden &amp; Pet experiences many of the same benefits. Founded in 1980, Central Garden &amp; Pet has spent the last three decades growing from a small garden supply company to a provider of a range of products from dog chews and bird seed to soil supplements and natural insecticides. For much of its life, the company shipped these disparate goods via LTL and truckload carriers to retailers throughout the country, relying on each business unit to negotiate directly with their freight transportation providers. This arrangement worked fairly well for a small company, but as Central Garden &amp; Pet expanded, leadership decided to consolidate decision making.Burnett helped centralize the transportation decision making in 2015 with SMC³’s Bid$ense. Before Bid$ense, every business unit operated independently as far as negotiating with carriers.“There were a lot of different things just floating around,” he said. “We didn’t have master agreements in place; no national pricing at all. The pricing from carriers was just all over the place, depending on where you were.”The transformations he saw with Bid$ense were immediate. Burnett has been using the tool about every other year since its implementation at the company. Central Garden and Pet’s $19.6 million 2019 LTL bid saved the company just more than 9 percent when compared to its historical average. For Burnett, though, bid automation extends far beyond savings.“We knew that we weren’t getting the best pricing offer from our carriers just because nothing was centralized,” he continued. “We knew that if we combined everything from all these business units and paired it with one corporate offering, then it would drive some cost benefit with it.”When the company initially decided to centralize bid procurement, executives researched a number of different methodologies and technologies. In the end, though, Burnett found that Bid$ense was both widespread and well known, and that his carrier partners already knew how to use the application. Burnett also highlighted the data-cleansing process as a major benefit, saying the rigorous process ensures that carriers always return the best price.“It definitely has helped drive savings,” he said. “Any time you go out there and you drive that competitiveness with the carriers and they know they’re in a bid environment, it seems to sharpen their pencils.”Transportation procurement is an integral part of the modern supply chain. With Bid$ense, shippers can develop a strategic implementation plan that saves them time and money, but also helps them create strong relationships with their carrier partners. These carriers appreciate the solution’s data-cleansing process; when carriers receive a complete shipment history and future volume forecast, they don’t have to guess on pricing. Carriers that receive more data from shippers get a complete picture of that shipper’s freight, allowing them to accurately plan instead of simply preparing for the worst-case scenario. Clean data presented through an automated system can lead to both bigger shipment savings and a lasting partnership between carrier and customer.Whether customers are looking to streamline over-the-road transportation bidding by automating the RFP process or create an entirely new, centralized sourcing process, Bid$ense has the analytical horsepower to get the job done.SMC³ 2020 Customer Case Study

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Shippers save money, time with automated transportation bidding tools

If there’s one immutable truth in the world of logistics, it’s this: LTL is an inherently complex form of transportation. Tariffs, rates, DIM weights, transit times — it’s enough to confuse even seasoned logistics professionals. The solution to this knowledge gap has historically been on-the-job training or university supply chain education, but for a variety of reasons there is now a pressing need for third-party, remote LTL training that prepares logistics workers for transportation success. Global Scope Can Overlook Local Intricacies In the past, professionals looking to move into a supply chain career learned about the basics of supply chain from universities. However, many of these college supply chain programs are now global in scope, focusing on worldwide supply chain management instead of the intricacies of specialized domestic transportation. And even these programs, which used to be widespread, are becoming less common. LTL is not an industry of broad-brush strokes; supply chain professionals really need a pointillistic understanding of the logistics of LTL in order to excel in the industry. Accelerating Need for Dedicated LTL Education This lack of specified training put the onus on employers to prepare new hires with the LTL knowledge needed to do their jobs. Dedicated LTL study is a necessity, not a luxury. At the same time, changes in LTL and the broader supply chain world are accelerating. The reliance on e-commerce has ballooned since the start of the pandemic, and last-mile LTL shipments and related e-commerce strains on the supply chain won’t diminish once social distancing abates. That genie isn’t going back into the bottle. So supply chain employers need logistics workers that are fully versed in all aspects of the industry, ready to solve unique shipping and delivery problems based on their extensive supply chain knowledge But why care about LTL? It’s been reported that some shippers in today’s world are no longer concerned with what mode is used to ship their goods. A Multimodal Approach Ensures On-Time Delivery This mode agnosticism means supply chain stakeholders have to be well versed in all modes of transportation. As unforeseen weather events and other disruptions, such as protests, become more common, savvy logistics employees will need to be armed with familiarity of all modes, not just the most popular, to ensure that freight is delivered on time, without damage, and in the most financially expedient way possible. Offerings like SMC³’s LTL online education courses cover a wide range of topics from LTL basics and operations to more advanced concepts like pricing analytics and transportation law. The company also has plans to continually refresh content, adding new expert presenters and taking the feedback of students to make the courses even better as time goes on. Learn more about&nbsp;<a href="https://logisticstrainingcenter.com/smc3-courses/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">SMC³’s LTL Online Education program</a>&nbsp;and view the 2021 hybrid schedule, featuring live industry experts,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smc3.com/onlinelearning2021/" rel="noreferrer" class="joc_admin__link">here.</a>

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Filling the Supply Chain Education Gap with LTL Education Courses

In 1995, we began operations with a clear vision: to grow alongside Mexico and connect the world through our terminals. Our priority has always been to deliver excellence in service, foster economic development, and strengthen our communities. We firmly believe that progress is not only measured in tons of cargo moved, but in the opportunities we create. _______________________________________________________________ This year marks a significant milestone: SSA Marine Mexico celebrates 30 years of presence in the country, having established itself from day one as the leading port operator nationwide. Over the past three decades, we have built a legacy of reliability, innovation, and commitment to Mexico’s growth. Our journey has been defined by continuous evolution and a steadfast dedication to our mission. SSA Marine México currently operates in six of the country’s most important ports: Cozumel, Lazaro Cardenas, Manzanillo, Progreso, Tuxpan, and Veracruz. Additionally, we have signed a concession to operate a new multipurpose terminal in Guaymas, Sonora, expanding our footprint to the north of the country. We serve a wide range of segments including containers, general cargo, automobiles, cruise ships, hydrocarbons, and asphalt. As part of this ongoing commitment, SSA Marine Mexico continues to strengthen its infrastructure and capabilities. International trade remains a key driver of global economic growth, and we are proud to support this momentum. Through our continuous improvement strategy, we invest in cutting-edge technology and equipment to deliver more efficient and competitive services, contributing to the success of Mexican businesses. •	Manzanillo, Colima- Specialized Container Terminal I: On October 13, we celebrated the arrival of two new STS (Ship To Shore) Super Post Panamax dockside cranes. This $21.2 million USD investment significantly boosts our operational capacity, streamlining cargo reception and delivery processes. In line with our modernization efforts, we will also retire four of our oldest cranes, paving the way for a more sustainable and technologically advanced fleet that meets the evolving demands of international trade. With these upgrades, SSA Marine México now operates a total of 16 cranes along our 1,350-meter dock, reaffirming our position as a national benchmark in port <span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-4_3 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-large" data-figure-size="large" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="4:3"><img src="/content-assets/1760982635607_Manzanillo.jpg" alt="Image provided by SSA Marine" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit"> •	As for the Multipurpose Terminal and Specialized Facility, also in Manzanillo, Colima, improvement and conditioning works are planned, along with the acquisition of four E-RTG (Electric Rubber-Tyred Gantry) cranes to enhance operational efficiency and sustainability. •	At our Automobile and General Cargo Terminal in the port of Veracruz, we continue to lead with specialized value-added services that support our clients’ growth. Recent investments include a new washing cabin and a general cargo warehouse, increasing indoor storage capacity by 67%. •	Lazaro Cardenas, Michoacan – Specialized Automobile Terminal: we are working on the development of an additional 4-hectare storage space within our bonded area and a 10-hectare Vehicle Distribution Center (VDC). These enhancements, along with ongoing personnel and system improvements, will reinforce our leadership in automotive handling across the Mexican Pacific coast.<span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-4_3 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-large" data-figure-size="large" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="4:3"><img src="/content-assets/1760982742240_Lazaro.jpg" alt="Image provided by SSA Marine" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit"> Through these strategic investments, SSA Marine Mexico reaffirms its commitment to the sustained growth of Mexico’s foreign trade. By expanding capacity, modernizing infrastructure, and diversifying services, we continue to strengthen the country’s competitiveness in global logistics. Today, we celebrate three decades of dedication, innovation, and leadership, with deep gratitude to our employees, clients, and partners for being part of this incredible journey. LINK: https://www.ssamarine.mx/<span class="joc_admin__inline-image joc_admin__inline-image-aspect-ratio-16_9 joc_admin__inline-image-position-left joc_admin__inline-image-size-small" data-figure-size="small" data-figure-position="left" data-figure-aspect-ratio="16:9"><img src="/content-assets/1760982787360_SSA%20Marine%20Mexico%20logo%20150pxW.png" alt="" class="joc_admin__inline-image-inherit">

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SSA Marine Mexico: 30 years growing together.

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<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index hit an all-time low of 72.4% in the third quarter as big carriers culled trucks, expecting a “challenging” end to 2025. </div>

The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index hit an all-time low of 72.4% in the third quarter as big carriers culled trucks, expecting a “challenging” end to 2025.

<div class="phx-topic">Large US truckload carriers are cutting into their fleets again, attempting to reduce capacity to match low levels of demand and to fatten thinning profit margins. Additional freight those carriers anticipated in the fourth quarter has yet to arrive on docks. After rising in the second quarter, the Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index dropped 3.6 percentage points to 72.4% in the third quarter, an all-time low for the index, which runs back to the 2008–09 Great Recession. The index dropped 4.2 points year over year. The previous all-time low for the index, which measures capacity in terms of actual truck counts at a group of large publicly-owned carriers, was 73.8% in the 2013 fourth quarter. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="1c27408c-a4a7-4bbf-84f5-4fe3e53846e0"></dynamic-object></div>Large truckload carriers believe even more capacity will leave the overall trucking market, with stricter regulatory enforcement taking out a large, although undefined number of small truckload carriers. Those large carriers continue to shift assets to dedicated business. “We anticipate the fourth quarter to remain challenging, with the continuation of the soft freight market,” James Grant, CFO of Tennessee-based truckload carrier Covenant Logistics, said during a third-quarter earnings call last month. In addition to the overall market softness, Grant cited the US government shutdown, which affects Covenant’s business with the US Department of Defense, and some customer bankruptcies. But Covenant is more bullish about 2026, 2027 and even 2028. “I’m more excited right now than I've ever been in my entire career for the next two to three years,” Covenant CEO David Parker told analysts. The exit of non-English-speaking and non-domiciled drivers is “an avalanche in the process of happening,” he said. Others are still looking for signs that <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/industry-group-calls-for-tougher-licensing-better-training-amid-trucker-crackdown-6101323">increased enforcement</a> of English-language proficiency (ELP) requirements and limits on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) will amount to an avalanche of exiting low-priced truck capacity. “The impact on truck capacity has got to be more than zero,” Frank Lonegro, president and CEO of Landstar System, said during his company’s earnings call. But he said capacity is “going to come out over a little bit longer time than just a matter of weeks and months.” <h3>Difficulties with data </h3>Matt Muenster, Breakthrough Fuel’s chief economist, believes the impact of tighter truck driver licensing enforcement will be drawn out in a “slow-burn supply-side squeeze” that might take six months to a year to show a significant effect on available capacity. Breakthrough has tracked out-of-service (OOS) orders for ELP violations, and Muenster said the company is seeing 300 to 400 drivers put out of service a week. More than half of the OOS violations are being logged in Texas, near the US-Mexico border, he said. “Locking into data to get guidance on how this plays out is difficult,” Muenster told the Journal of Commerce. “We see a heavy impact on some fleets that have cross-border truckload movements,” especially shipments between Mexico and the US. “We’re not seeing a tremendous impact on the largest truckload fleets in the country,” Muenster said. And in terms of spot market rates, Breakthrough sees “nothing that really moves the needle nationally or regionally” in the immediate future, he said. For now, that makes control over their tractor counts one of the few levers left to those large truckload carriers. Contact William B. Cassidy at <a href="mailto:bill.cassidy@spglobal.com">bill.cassidy@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

Large US truckload carriers are cutting into their fleets again, attempting to reduce capacity to match low levels of demand and to fatten thinning profit margins. Additional freight those carriers anticipated in the fourth quarter has yet to arrive on docks. After rising in the second quarter, the Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index dropped 3.6 percentage points to 72.4% in the third quarter, an all-time low for the index, which runs back to the 2008–09 Great Recession. The index dropped 4.2 points year over year. The previous all-time low for the index, which measures capacity in terms of actual truck counts at a group of large publicly-owned carriers, was 73.8% in the 2013 fourth quarter. Large truckload carriers believe even more capacity will leave the overall trucking market, with stricter regulatory enforcement taking out a large, although undefined number of small truckload carriers. Those large carriers continue to shift assets to dedicated business. “We anticipate the fourth quarter to remain challenging, with the continuation of the soft freight market,” James Grant, CFO of Tennessee-based truckload carrier Covenant Logistics, said during a third-quarter earnings call last month. In addition to the overall market softness, Grant cited the US government shutdown, which affects Covenant’s business with the US Department of Defense, and some customer bankruptcies. But Covenant is more bullish about 2026, 2027 and even 2028. “I’m more excited right now than I've ever been in my entire career for the next two to three years,” Covenant CEO David Parker told analysts. The exit of non-English-speaking and non-domiciled drivers is “an avalanche in the process of happening,” he said. Others are still looking for signs that increased enforcement of English-language proficiency (ELP) requirements and limits on non-domiciled commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) will amount to an avalanche of exiting low-priced truck capacity. “The impact on truck capacity has got to be more than zero,” Frank Lonegro, president and CEO of Landstar System, said during his company’s earnings call. But he said capacity is “going to come out over a little bit longer time than just a matter of weeks and months.” Difficulties with data Matt Muenster, Breakthrough Fuel’s chief economist, believes the impact of tighter truck driver licensing enforcement will be drawn out in a “slow-burn supply-side squeeze” that might take six months to a year to show a significant effect on available capacity. Breakthrough has tracked out-of-service (OOS) orders for ELP violations, and Muenster said the company is seeing 300 to 400 drivers put out of service a week. More than half of the OOS violations are being logged in Texas, near the US-Mexico border, he said. “Locking into data to get guidance on how this plays out is difficult,” Muenster told the Journal of Commerce. “We see a heavy impact on some fleets that have cross-border truckload movements,” especially shipments between Mexico and the US. “We’re not seeing a tremendous impact on the largest truckload fleets in the country,” Muenster said. And in terms of spot market rates, Breakthrough sees “nothing that really moves the needle nationally or regionally” in the immediate future, he said. For now, that makes control over their tractor counts one of the few levers left to those large truckload carriers. Contact William B. Cassidy at bill.cassidy@spglobal.com .

Truckload

Large US truckload carriers trim tractor counts to control capacity

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">The latest Global Port Tracker report warns of double-digit declines in imports for the rest of the year and no growth in early 2026. </div>

The latest Global Port Tracker report warns of double-digit declines in imports for the rest of the year and no growth in early 2026.

<div class="phx-topic">US retailers are throttling back post-winter holiday restocking despite anticipating strong sales for the upcoming holiday season, planning to import less than 2 million TEUs monthly through March. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), published on Friday by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), projected double-digit declines in imports for the rest of the year and no growth in early 2026, with volumes expected to fall steadily to 1.79 million TEUs in March. Months of frontloading explain the harsher-than-usual import slowdown for the final months of this year, but uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing US tariff policy are keeping retail inventories running lean. US container volumes, which initially rose earlier in the year thanks to cargo frontloading to avoid higher tariffs — surging 3.7% year over year in the first half — will end the year down 2.3% from 2024, according to the GPT. The Trump administration’s shifting tariff policy makes “market forecasting highly uncertain,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in a statement. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026,” he said. US imports this month and in December will plunge 14.4% and 19.9%, respectively, from a year ago, according to the GPT. The volumes compare poorly with the year-earlier period partly because cargo was frontloaded last year due to labor woes, notably a brief port strike along the US East and Gulf coasts. <h3>Strong sales, weak replenishing </h3>US retail sales this year will top $1 trillion, expanding approximately 3% to 4% from last year, according to a GPT analysis released Thursday. US consumer sentiment is weakening, however, with a preliminary November reading from the University of Michigan’s index showing weakness from October due to heightened concerns over the more than five-week government shutdown. In the face of mixed US economic signals and fluctuating tariff policy, US retailers have been playing it safe when it comes to restocking. US inventory-to-sales ratios for retailers have hovered between 1.28 and 1.32, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, suggesting that despite the frontloading of imports in the first half of the year, importers are keeping stocks lean. That strategy seems to extend into 2026, when GPT forecasts imports will fall to 1.98 million TEUs in January and 1.85 million TEUs in February.<div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="8fd4291a-fe85-42be-bbea-ccd1a61de56d"></dynamic-object></div>The US-China trade deal announced last week spurred US retailers to move quickly on imports they need in the short term, but the effect was limited. The one-year halving of the so-called “fentanyl tax” on imports from China still leaves the tariff rate at approximately 47%, which is higher than the levies on imports from other Asian source countries tapped by US retailers. The GPT covers the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, and Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, the Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast. Contact Mark Szakonyi at <a href="mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com">mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com</a>. </div>

US retailers are throttling back post-winter holiday restocking despite anticipating strong sales for the upcoming holiday season, planning to import less than 2 million TEUs monthly through March. The latest Global Port Tracker (GPT), published on Friday by Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation (NRF), projected double-digit declines in imports for the rest of the year and no growth in early 2026, with volumes expected to fall steadily to 1.79 million TEUs in March. Months of frontloading explain the harsher-than-usual import slowdown for the final months of this year, but uncertain consumer sentiment and ever-changing US tariff policy are keeping retail inventories running lean. US container volumes, which initially rose earlier in the year thanks to cargo frontloading to avoid higher tariffs — surging 3.7% year over year in the first half — will end the year down 2.3% from 2024, according to the GPT. The Trump administration’s shifting tariff policy makes “market forecasting highly uncertain,” Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said in a statement. “Our trade outlook is for a small decline in imports this year compared with 2024 and a further, larger decline in the first quarter of 2026,” he said. US imports this month and in December will plunge 14.4% and 19.9%, respectively, from a year ago, according to the GPT. The volumes compare poorly with the year-earlier period partly because cargo was frontloaded last year due to labor woes, notably a brief port strike along the US East and Gulf coasts. Strong sales, weak replenishing US retail sales this year will top $1 trillion, expanding approximately 3% to 4% from last year, according to a GPT analysis released Thursday. US consumer sentiment is weakening, however, with a preliminary November reading from the University of Michigan’s index showing weakness from October due to heightened concerns over the more than five-week government shutdown. In the face of mixed US economic signals and fluctuating tariff policy, US retailers have been playing it safe when it comes to restocking. US inventory-to-sales ratios for retailers have hovered between 1.28 and 1.32, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, suggesting that despite the frontloading of imports in the first half of the year, importers are keeping stocks lean. That strategy seems to extend into 2026, when GPT forecasts imports will fall to 1.98 million TEUs in January and 1.85 million TEUs in February. The US-China trade deal announced last week spurred US retailers to move quickly on imports they need in the short term, but the effect was limited. The one-year halving of the so-called “fentanyl tax” on imports from China still leaves the tariff rate at approximately 47%, which is higher than the levies on imports from other Asian source countries tapped by US retailers. The GPT covers the ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, and Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, the Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast. Contact Mark Szakonyi at  mark.szakonyi@spglobal.com .

Trans-Atlantic

US retailers throttle back on imports amid uncertain consumer sentiment

<div class="phx-topic abstract-wrapper">An $800 general rate increase implemented over the weekend for West Coast business was already starting to deteriorate by Tuesday after some early — and fleeting — staying power generated by the US-China trade deal.</div>

An $800 general rate increase implemented over the weekend for West Coast business was already starting to deteriorate by Tuesday after some early — and fleeting — staying power generated by the US-China trade deal.

<div class="phx-topic">A general rate increase (GRI) of approximately $800 per FEU implemented by ocean carriers this weekend on the Asia to US West Coast trade is already beginning to erode amid a fundamental lack of demand, forwarders and carriers say. “The load factor to the West Coast is really not that strong,” Chris Sur, executive director for global sales at logistics provider Glovis America, told the Journal of Commerce. The GRI, enacted on Saturday, showed some initial staying power, coming just days after the <a href="https://www.joc.com/article/us-china-suspend-reciprocal-port-fees-as-part-of-wider-trade-deal-6105849">US and China reached a broad trade deal</a> that partially rolled back some tariffs and set a one-year pause on reciprocal port fees. A carrier executive said that in the immediate aftermath of the agreement, some retailers wanted to begin pulling fresh cargo into the US quickly because of uncertainty over how long the truce would last. That strategy lent support to rates on the West Coast trade, and the new GRI. “There was a bit of pent-up demand, and the West Coast is the fastest route,” the carrier executive said. The GRI pushed the West Coast spot rate up to about $2,750 to $2,850 per FEU; the rate one week earlier was about $2,040 per FEU, according to Platts, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&amp;P Global. But the bullishness was short-lived, with sources saying the market had already begun to give up the GRI gains by Tuesday. <div class="wrapper-narrow"><dynamic-object type="jocchartid" resource-id="e8c13a3e-9f5a-412f-8741-adbf5e1a7779"></dynamic-object></div>The rate moves for Asia to East Coast business were even more dramatic. Trans-Pacific carriers over the weekend attempted to impose a $1,000 per FEU GRI on shipments from Asia to the East Coast, but that GRI “completely collapsed,” a forwarder said. By Monday, the East Coast spot rate had dropped to about $2,750 to $2,850 per FEU — about the same level as the West Coast rate, a mark of parity that is highly unusual. “I never remember that happening before,” the forwarder said. <h3>Holiday merchandise has already arrived </h3>Sur said the reality in the eastbound trans-Pacific is that retailers have already imported their holiday season merchandise for the Black Friday sales that begin on the day after Thanksgiving in the US. The remaining two months of the year will be a weak period for imports, as they usually are, he said. Meanwhile, bookings for shipments from China into the US fell about 16% in October compared with September, according to data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun &amp; Bradstreet. Still, bookings for Chinese cargo during the second half of October rebounded somewhat, increasing by more than 15% compared with the first half of the month. The structural weakness in overall demand in the eastbound trans-Pacific will likely continue through the end of the year, but that does not preclude carriers from attempting to implement further GRIs, Sur said. “If carriers have the resolve to do it, they’ll do it,” he said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at <a href="mailto:bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com">bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com</a>.Contact Laura Robb at <a href="mailto:laura.robb@spglobal.com">laura.robb@spglobal.com</a>.</div>

A general rate increase (GRI) of approximately $800 per FEU implemented by ocean carriers this weekend on the Asia to US West Coast trade is already beginning to erode amid a fundamental lack of demand, forwarders and carriers say. “The load factor to the West Coast is really not that strong,” Chris Sur, executive director for global sales at logistics provider Glovis America, told the Journal of Commerce. The GRI, enacted on Saturday, showed some initial staying power, coming just days after the US and China reached a broad trade deal that partially rolled back some tariffs and set a one-year pause on reciprocal port fees. A carrier executive said that in the immediate aftermath of the agreement, some retailers wanted to begin pulling fresh cargo into the US quickly because of uncertainty over how long the truce would last. That strategy lent support to rates on the West Coast trade, and the new GRI. “There was a bit of pent-up demand, and the West Coast is the fastest route,” the carrier executive said. The GRI pushed the West Coast spot rate up to about $2,750 to $2,850 per FEU; the rate one week earlier was about $2,040 per FEU, according to Platts, a sister product of the Journal of Commerce within S&P Global. But the bullishness was short-lived, with sources saying the market had already begun to give up the GRI gains by Tuesday. The rate moves for Asia to East Coast business were even more dramatic. Trans-Pacific carriers over the weekend attempted to impose a $1,000 per FEU GRI on shipments from Asia to the East Coast, but that GRI “completely collapsed,” a forwarder said. By Monday, the East Coast spot rate had dropped to about $2,750 to $2,850 per FEU — about the same level as the West Coast rate, a mark of parity that is highly unusual. “I never remember that happening before,” the forwarder said. Holiday merchandise has already arrived Sur said the reality in the eastbound trans-Pacific is that retailers have already imported their holiday season merchandise for the Black Friday sales that begin on the day after Thanksgiving in the US. The remaining two months of the year will be a weak period for imports, as they usually are, he said. Meanwhile, bookings for shipments from China into the US fell about 16% in October compared with September, according to data from maritime visibility provider Vizion and data and analytics company Dun & Bradstreet. Still, bookings for Chinese cargo during the second half of October rebounded somewhat, increasing by more than 15% compared with the first half of the month. The structural weakness in overall demand in the eastbound trans-Pacific will likely continue through the end of the year, but that does not preclude carriers from attempting to implement further GRIs, Sur said. “If carriers have the resolve to do it, they’ll do it,” he said. Contact Bill Mongelluzzo at bill.mongelluzzo@spglobal.com .Contact Laura Robb at laura.robb@spglobal.com .

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