China and Russia are changing global trade rules and the global order in ways "detrimental to US security," a Trump administration document claims.

To say that the Trump administration’s steel tariffs and quotas have upset the global steel market would be an understatement, as nations who have hit their quotas are scrambling for new markets, and US importers are searching for new sources of affordably priced steel.

Backers of tariffs always promise positive results for the domestic economy. But tariffs were tried by the United States and many other nations in the early stages of the Great Depression in the 1930s. Now how did that work out?

Although trade tensions between the United States and the European Union and their impact have been muted so far in 2018, trade stakeholders know that could change dramatically and quickly.

Although the impact would be significant elsewhere, one port complex in the United States has the most to lose — and in a big way — by a protracted, major trade war between the world's two largest economies.

Supply chain experts at the SM3 Connections 2018 conference are taking a focus-on-what-one-can control stance, while also counting on more-constructive policies in the years ahead that are likely to support the decades-long globalization trend.

With manufacturing sectors in both nations in a strong uptrend, and China’s middle class expanding while US consumer spending is recovering after a long hiatus, only a full-bore trade war could deflect accelerating container trade between the two economic giants.

Cost pressures and consumer preferences can change vehicle demand in a hurry. However, there’s another variable that can change it — and harm it — even faster.

Neither country has listed a deadline for tariff implementation, hence the situation remains dynamic and fluid. However, key analysts are formulating worst-case scenarios.

To cite the late, great writer Mark Twain, the reports of the North American Free Trade Agreement’s death are greatly exaggerated. Shippers and transportation providers looking past the noise of mainstream reporting see reason for optimism in 2018 for the world's largest trilateral trade pact.

There is hope for the steel sector in the form of a macroeconomic tailwind: beneath the fog of politics, steel trade volume depends on underlying demand, which analysts predict will rise modestly in 2018.

"You just find an export credit agency in another country. When that happens, the supply chain leaves the United States and goes to that other country.”