Japanese Exports to Level Off, Report Says

Japanese Exports to Level Off, Report Says

Japanese containerized cargo exports will level off in fiscal 2011, which started on April 1, in the wake of the devastating earthquake and tsunami that hit the northeastern part of the country on March 11, a research firm predicted.

Containerized cargo exports from nine major Japanese ports are projected to rise only 0.2 percent in fiscal 2011 to 5.302 million 20-foot equivalent units after increasing a healthy 8.8 percent in the previous fiscal year.

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Nittsu Research Institute and Consulting, a subsidiary of Nippon Express, Japan’s largest freight forwarder, made the estimates in its revised “Outlook for Fiscal 2011 Economy and Cargo Transportation” report.

The report was originally compiled before the March 11 twin natural disasters. NRIC had previously revised the report in early April.

According to the latest version of the report, containerized cargo exports from the nine ports are projected to sink 4.1 percent in the first half of fiscal 2011 from the same six-month period last year to 2.562 million TEUs.

But they are projected to recover in the second half of fiscal 2011, growing 4.6 percent from a year earlier to 2.740 million TEUs, as industrial production will return to levels seen before the March 11 twin natural disasters, the report says.

Meanwhile, containerized cargo imports at the nine ports are projected to rise 4.5 percent in fiscal 2011 to 7.321 million TEUs after increasing a robust 12.6 percent in the previous fiscal year.

Containerized cargo imports at the nine ports are projected to rise 5.1 percent in the first half of fiscal 2011 from a year earlier to 3.680 million TEUs and then 3.9 percent in the second half to 3.641 million TEUs.

The nine ports, which include the Port of Tokyo, the Port of Yokohama, the Port of Nagoya, the Port of Osaka and the Port of Kobe, account for about 90 percent of Japan’s total containerized cargo trade -- both exports and imports.

According to the latest version of the NRIC report, Japanese air cargo exports are projected to rise a paltry 0.2 percent in fiscal 2011 to 1.132 million tons after soaring 14.3 percent in fiscal 2010.

Japanese air cargo imports are also projected to rise only 1.0 percent in fiscal 2011 to 1.235 million tons after surging 14.5 percent in fiscal 2010.

The NRIC report also forecast that Japan’s domestic cargo transportation volume in terms of tonnage will fall 6.2 percent in the first half of fiscal 2011 and then 1.8 percent in the second half, resulting in full-year negative growth of 4.0 percent.

NRIC was established in 1961 as the first comprehensive research organization in Japan dealing with problems of business logistics and related issues, according to the company.

Contact Hisane Masaki at yiu45535@nifty.com.