FTR Predicts Heavy Truck Slump

The market for class 8 trucks is likely to slump at the end of the year and to slow further in 2010, said transportation analyst FTR Associates.

After a surge in orders in October, FTR increased its 2009 forecast but the last two months of the year will likely soften as modest freight growth will not spark much more demand. And the late orders will probably reduce early 2010 freight-induced demand, as the order activity in October was driven by truck operators lining up for the last of pre-2010 emissions engines, said FTR.

This year “will end with modest freight growth, and we expect 2010 growth to be in the 2.8 percent range,” said Eric Starks, president of FTR. “However, given the huge decline in freight over the last few years, the increase in freight in 2010 will not be enough to entice fleets in large numbers to buy new, more expensive technology when such equipment is first made available. Many have usable miles on older equipment to get them through the initial up-tick in freight demand without taking the risk of adding unfamiliar engine technology to their fleet.”

Contact Thomas L. Gallagher at tgallagher@joc.com.