William B. Cassidy | Jul 13, 2011 10:26AM EDT
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce index pulled out of its two-month slide with a 1 percent increase in June, though it remains lower than it was in March.
The PCI — based on diesel purchases by truckers — fell 0.9 percent in May following April’s 0.5 percent decline and a 2.7 percent gain in March.
That should reflect modest growth in industrial production last month, though not enough growth to kickstart the idling recovery, Ceridian and UCLA said.
“This month’s 1 percent increase in the PCI could be the start of a positive trend, but a one-month spike does not make a trend,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist.
Leamer noted the diesel-fuel-based PCI has had seven negative and five positive months over the past year, and was up only 2 percent year-over-year in June.
“The U.S. economy has been in ‘she loves me, she loves me not’ mode,” the economist said, leaving forecasters “unable to identify sustainable trends.”
The June PCI “reinforces our long-held cautious outlook for below consensus growth in GDP,” said Leamer, who also is director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.
Contact William B. Cassidy at wcassidy@joc.com. Follow him on Twitter at @wbcassidy_joc