After contracting in June, total exports from Asia last month accelerated, and double-digit growth is likely in the months ahead, according to analysis by Nomura.
The investment bank said total Asian exports excluding Japan fell 2.5 percent year-on-year in June, but July data from China revealed a rebound to 5.1 percent growth year-on-year, compared to a 3.3 percent drop in June. South Korea’s exports also gained 2.6 percent year-on-year in July after a 1 percent contraction a month earlier, while India saw 11.6 percent growth last month, compared to a 4.6 percent decline in June.
Nomura economist Rob Subbaraman said Asian exports were starting to accelerate, with only Taiwan reporting slower growth last month (1.6 percent) than in June (8.7 percent).
“The July data gel with our own leading index, a composite of nine timely or forward-looking indicators, which can predict Asia ex-Japan’s total export growth three months ahead,” he said. “It has been signaling a pickup in Asian export growth for a while, and it is pointing to a return to double-digit export growth in the months ahead.
“All this is consistent with our house view that growth in the big advanced economies is improving, while in China growth is showing signs of stabilizing at a low level, at least by Chinese standards.”
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