The global economy weakened slightly in the second quarter of 2013, mainly driven by declining optimism in Asia and Latin America, although North America showed signs of continuing recovery, according to a World Economic Survey published today by the International Chamber of Commerce and the economic research institute Ifo.
The survey, which includes input from more than 1,000 economists in 123 countries, also showed some decline in the six-month economic outlook. The poll’s climate indicator dropped to 94.1 for the third quarter of 2013, back down to early 2013 levels, despite a rise to 96.8 percent in the second quarter.
“The poll suggests some global recovery could still be possible this year: it’s stopped, but we’re still on an even path,” said Klaus Wohlrabe, deputy head of Ifo’s Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys, in a written statement. “We hope the business climate will pick up in the next quarter, but if it declines, particularly in Asia, the world economy could deteriorate.”
In Asia, the Ifo economic climate indicator fell below its long-term average following a temporary boost in confidence in the previous quarter. The drop was fueled by increased caution about China’s six-month outlook, according to the survey.
“We’re encouraged by the climate of economic recovery in the U.S., and some stabilization in Europe,” added Jean-Guy Carrier, ICC’s secretary general. “However, with many economies still struggling, governments need to do more to restore investor confidence.”
The poll reflected emerging economic stabilization in the eurozone, with the area’s economic indicator reaching its highest level since late 2011. Only Slovenia and Cyprus were expected to see continued economic decline. Ifo attributed the overall positivity to a “lack of bad news.”
Furthermore, expectations for North America’s economy continue to rise, suggesting economic recovery will continue, the survey said.