World coffee production for 2013/2014 season was forecasted at 146 million bags, down 4.4 million bags from the previous year, according to the “Coffee: World Markets and Trade” report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service.
The report also said that global bean exports are predicted to fall “just below” last year’s record, while consumption is expected to rise “modestly.”
The production decrease will mainly be driven by Brazil’s Arabica trees entering the off-year of the biennial production cycle, and to a lesser extent, Central America and Mexico’s continued struggle with coffee leaf rust, the report said. Brazil’s annual production was forecasted at 53.7 million bags, down 2.4 million bags year-over-year, while Central America and Mexico’s production is expected to decline 1.4 million bags to 16.5 million.
Furthermore, Indonesia’s production in 2013/2014 is expected to drop 1.3 million bags year-over-year to 9.2 million bags, and Vietnam’s production is predicted to decrease marginally to 24.8 million bags. Colombia and India’s production are both expected to be flat compared with the previous year, totaling 9.0 million bags and 5.2 million bags respectively.
Exports of coffee to the European Union, which is the recipient of nearly half of world bean exports, and the U.S., which imports the second-largest amount of coffee beans, are predicted to decrease slightly.