Asia excluding Japan’s total export growth slowed from 5.9 percent year-on-year in October to 3.4 percent in November, according to the latest index aggregate export index from Nomura.
But while December data are sending mixed signals, the forward outlook is positive, according to Robert Subbaraman, chief economist for Asia ex-Japan.
“Taiwan’s exports rose by 9 percent year-on-year in December and China’s jumped 14 percent, but Singapore’s slumped 16 percent,” he said. “Moreover, many seem sceptical of the accuracy of Chinese export data, given the size of the rebound amid ongoing fiscal concerns in the U.S.”
He predicted Asian export growth would hold up “fairly well and should recover modestly through to February” with forward-looking indicators — including the OECD leading economic index, China's imports, U.S. semiconductor sales and U.S. manufacturing electronics new orders — all offering room for optimism.
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