Growth in Asia will drive the world economy and prompt an acceleration of global trade growth in the decade ahead, according to a new report from HSBC.
“Our forecasts show the pace of growth in the region picking up again in 2013 and subsequent years, which will give renewed impetus to trade flows, both within the region and globally,” HSBC’s latest Global Connections Report says.
After slower growth this year in key economies such as China and India, “robust” growth in merchandise exports from Asia will be led by India, Vietnam and China, which are all expected to post double-digit annual increases throughout the period 2013–20.
The same three countries are also forecast to record double-digit annual export growth in the period 2021–30, led by Vietnam setting an annual pace of just under 12 percent a year. “The other countries in the region are expected to post somewhat slower export growth, albeit still strong compared with most other regions in the world,” HSBC said.
However, the report warned, trade prospects for all Asian countries will depend on what happens in China and, to a lesser extent, India.
“Our forecasts for these two countries show strong growth continuing after the current slow patch, leading the recovery in the world economy,” the report said. “And both will continue to expand strongly in terms of their share of world GDP, leading to emerging Asian countries becoming an increasingly important influence on world growth and trade. “In turn, they will have a pivotal impact on flows of foreign investment between the developed and developing economies.”