U.S. manufacturing recovery continues on track and should outperform overall GDP growth through 2013, according to a quarterly report by the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation.
MAPI’s U.S. Industrial Outlook analyzes 27 major industries and offers economic forecasts for 24 of them. MAPI expects 20 of those industries will show gains in 2012, led by 22 percent growth in housing starts from last year’s low base.
“There exists pent-up demand for consumer durable goods, particularly for motor vehicles, and firms are profitable and need to spend more for both traditional and high-tech business equipment,” said Daniel J. Meckstroth, MAPI chief economist and author of the analysis. He said exports are being aided by strong but decelerating growth in emerging economies.
Although the global economy remains volatile, Meckstroth said the risk of recession for the U.S. has receded in the last three months.
MAPI forecasts that manufacturing industrial production will increase 4 percent in 2012 and 3.5 percent in 2013 after a 4.5 percent rise in 2011. MAPI estimates GDP growth will be 2.2 percent in 2012 and 2.4 percent in 2013.