Gartner Projects Leap in Global PC Shipments

Consumers going mobile snapped up enough low-priced notebook computers this year to push personal computer shipments up 2.8 percent in 2009, the Gartner Group says. The research firm’s latest fourth-quarter forecast predicts worldwide PC shipments will total 298.9 million units this year, higher than Gartner predicted in September.

“Shipments in the third quarter of 2009 were much stronger than we expected, and that alone virtually guaranteed we would see positive growth this year,” said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner.

Overall, worldwide shipments of PCs will be even stronger next year, Gartner says, as low prices spur sales in a recovery to rise 12.6 percent over 2009 to a projected 336.6 million units in 2010.

The dollar value of those shipments, however, is dropping, thanks to bargain basement pricing on computers. The market value of global PC shipments that Gartner forecasts for 2009 — $217 billion — is a 10.7 percent decrease from 2008. Gartner is now projecting the market value of PC shipments to reach $222.9 billion in 2010, a 2.6 percent increase over 2009.

Mobile PCs shipments are driving the industry's growth, as consumers transition from desktop PCs to wireless laptops. Mobile PC shipments will jump 15.4 percent this year to 162 million units, Gartner forecast, and another 17.5 percent in 2010 to 196.4 million units.

With retail prices dropping below $400 and dipping as low as $300 for some models, shipments of mini-notebook computers are rising fast. Mini-notebook shipments are set to climb 29.3 percent next year to 41 million units from 29 million units in 2009.

The rush to mobile models turned pricier desktop computers into high-tech paperweights, sending shipments down 9 percent from 2008 to 136.9 million units. The desktop market is expected to recovery slightly in 2010, with shipments forecast to reach 140.2 million units, a 2.4 percent increase.

But change comes fast in the computing world, Shiffler warns. "Mini-notebooks are facing increased competition from other low-cost mobile PCs, as well as alternative mobile devices," he said. "They are rapidly finding their level in the market, and we expect their growth to noticeably slow as early as next year."

Contact William B. Cassidy at wcassidy@joc.com.