February 9, 2010
The National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight said Monday that major U.S. ports would soon see their first year-over-year growth in nearly three years.
“This could be the turnaround we’ve been waiting to see for a long time,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “There’s not enough data yet to establish a clear trend, but we’re hopeful that this is a sign of recovery.”
In the most recent data for September 2009, container imports were 16 percent below September 2008, and 3 percent below August 2009.
Global Insight projected that in the traditional peak month of October, U.S. ports will receive 1.09 million TEUs, down 15 percent from a year ago.
However, the gap begins to narrow in projections for December, 1.06 million TEUs about par with a year ago. Volume for January 2010 is expected to be 1.02 million, down only 3 percent from January 2009. Volume will not top 1 million in February, the slowest month of the year, which leaves March as the likely month for the first positive growth with a projected volume of 1.02 million TEUs.
“The second half of 2009 has continued to see declines from 2008’s levels, but not as large as we saw during the first half of this year,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. “These ‘less bad’ numbers are evidence that the industry is seeing early signs of recovery.”
The IHS Global Insight Port Tracker monitors the country’s major container ports, Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle/Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, Savannah, and Houston.
Contact R.G. Edmonson at bedmonson@joc.com.
The true test will be when volumes exceed the peaks of 2006. Then we will know we have recovered from this downturn. That will probably not be for 5 years.
I would add to Mr. Doble's comments that the real beginning of the slide in international trade actually began in late 2006 and into 2007. Between 2000 and 2006 global trade doubled and was expected to double again by the end of 2015. But in late 2006 there began a small slippage in the percenatge of increase to global trade; in 2007 that slippage turned into negative numbers and in 2008 and 2009 the negative numbers continue. In total global trade has declined by nearly 28% in the past 30 months or so and WHEN the turn around comes, it will be between 3 to 5% the first year and about 5% therafter meaning it will take four to five years for global trade to get back what has been lost during the past 30 months.
The financial crisis hit in mid September of 2008. There was a delayed impact on shipping due to the simple fact that many orders had already been placed and shipments were on the water. Some orders would have been cancelled in October, which accounts for the relatively low Oct 2008 numbers. The real impact on box shipping hit in December 2008 and ran all the way through 2009.
While any positive growth is a good sign, it is important to keep in mind that this so called growth compares the dismal months in 2008 and early 2009 to today. Eventually, the numbers compared to same period last year were going to turn positive. However, this in no way is a testimonial for recovery in the industy. It is much too premature for that.
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