Imports Peaked in July, Port Tracker Says

Imports through top U.S. container ports in September will likely be up 16 percent from a year earlier but will decline from an unusually early peak month in July, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report.

October is the traditional peak month of the annual shipping season as retailers bring in merchandise for the holiday season. Many companies shipped early this year to avoid delays like those they encountered early this year when carrier cutbacks produced tight vessel capacity and shortages of containers.

“Retailers have stocked up early on much of their holiday merchandise in order to avoid some of the supply chain disruptions seen earlier in the year,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, which produces the report with Hackett Associates.

By The Numbers: U.S. Foreign Trade.

“Cargo is still coming in, but the key question for sales will be what happens with employment and other factors that affect consumer confidence this fall. Retailers are hoping they’ve hit the right balance of supply and demand,” Gold said.

The 10 busiest U.S. ports handled 1.38 million 20-foot-equivalent units in July, the latest month for which numbers are available. The total was up 25 percent from July 2009. It marked the eighth straight month of year-to-year increase following a 28-month streak of year-to-year declines.

Monthly volume in the rest of 2010 is expected to be up from 2009 levels but below July’s numbers, the report said.

August was estimated at 1.35 million TEUs, up 17 percent from a year ago. September is forecast at 1.32 million TEUs, up 16 percent; October, 1.3 million TEUs, up 9 percent; November, 1.2 million TEUs, up 11 percent; and December, 1.11 million TEUs, up 2 percent. January 2011 is forecast at 1.06 million TEUs, down 2 percent from January 2010.

“There is sufficient evidence to suggest that importers anticipated the peak season and bought early, partly as a result of a fear of lack of capacity and containers but also as a means to avoid the hefty peak season surcharges announced by all the carriers,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “We remain cautious about growth over the next 12 months. The good news is that the influx of new capacity will continue to put downward pressure on freight rates.”