Box Imports Rising Slowly

Import cargo volume at the nation’s major retail container ports is rising slowly, according to the monthly Port Tracker report released Thursday by the National Retail Federation and IHS Global Insight.

Total 2009 volume may reach 12.7 million 20-foot equivalent units. While better than earlier projections, that would still be the lowest number since 2004 and a drop of 16.8 percent from last year. Port Tracker forecasts February 2010 could be the first month in more than two years with a year-over-year increase.

“As we move closer to the end of the year and get updated numbers, we’re seeing a steady improvement with year-over-year declines becoming smaller,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. “This doesn’t mean that the challenges are behind us, but retailers are slowly starting to import more merchandise and that’s a positive sign.”

U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.17 million TEUs in August, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 6 percent from July but down 15 percent from August 2008, marking the 26th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline. Volume for September was estimated at 1.14 million TEUs, down 16 percent from last year, said the Port Tracker report.

October, traditionally the peak month of the year, is forecast to tie August at 1.17 million TEU, down 15 percent from last October. Volume will then begin its annual downward cycle in November, which is forecast at 1.09 million TEU, down 11 percent from last year, and December – previously forecast at a 2 percent decline from last year – is now expected to be flat at 1.06 million TEU. January 2010 is forecast at 1.03 million TEU, down 3 percent from January 2009 rather than the 18 percent drop expected a month ago, Port Tracker said.

February 2010 is forecast at 973,872 TEU – below 1 million for the first time since April, but up 16 percent from February 2009 and the first year-over-year increase in more than two years. February is traditionally the slowest month of the year, coming after the holiday season is over but before spring and summer merchandise reaches the docks, said Port Tracker