PC Shipments to Plummet 11.9 Percent

When it comes to high-tech purchases, consumers are pressing the “esc” key.

Shipments of personal computers are expected to post their worst decline in almost a decade this year, as 2009 shapes up to be the worst year in the PC’s history, research firm Gartner said in a March 2 report.

PC sales will plummet 11.9 percent, to 257 million units in 2009. The largest previous decline was 3.2 percent in 2001.

“The PC industry is facing extraordinary conditions as the global economy continues to weaken, users stretch PC lifetimes and PC suppliers grow increasingly cautious,” said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner.

“Slower GDP growth will generally weaken demand and slow new penetration, lengthening PC lifetimes will reduce replacements, and supplier caution will keep inventories at historic lows until confidence in a recovery eventually firms,” Shiffler said. “The impact of reduced replacements will be especially acute in mature markets, where replacements are estimated to account for around 80 percent of shipments.”

It’s not just the recession; changes in how people compute are affecting sales.

The big loser is the desktop PC that has dominated home and business offices for two decades. Desk-based PC shipments are forecast to decline 31.9 percent from 2008, to 101.4 million units.

Mobile PCs, however, will be boosted by growth in mini-notebook shipments. Sales of mini-notebooks around the globe will nearly double this year, shooting from 11.7 million units to 21 million units, Gartner says. That will boost overall worldwide mobile PC shipments by 9 percent to 155.6 million units.
That will cushion the market slowdown, but excluding mini-notebooks mobile PC sales will rise a more mere 2.7 percent in 2009. The mini-units will represent about 8 percent of PC shipments this year, Gartner says.

Price cuts may drive sales and shipments. At the end of 2008, the average U.S. price for a mini-notebook with an 8.9-inch screen, Microsoft Windows XP and a 160 GB hard drive was about $450, Gartner says. It expects the average price of the same machine to drop to $399 by the end of this year.

Contact William B. Cassidy at wcassidy@joc.com.