Leading Indicators Point to 2011 Growth

Two closely watched measures of future economic activity suggest the U.S. economy will recover in 2011, a development that would support rising freight transportation volumes.

The Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose 1.1 percent last month -- the biggest increase since March, when the index jumped 1.4 percent.

Another private research group, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said its Weekly Leading Index rose to the highest level since May 7. The index rose to 126.5, the highest since 131.9 on May 7.

ECRI also produces The Journal of Commerce-ECRI Industrial Price Index, which hit a one-year high for the week ending Dec. 10 and is up 23.4 percent from a year ago.

"The U.S. economy is showing some sparks of life in late 2010," said Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. "Overall, the indicators point to a mild pickup after a slow winter. Looking further out, possible clouds on the medium-term horizon include weaknesses in housing and employment."

Of the 10 measures the Conference Board uses to calculate the leading indicators, nine increased in November. The only one that declined was building permits, a signal of future home construction.

Other economists are looking for gradual economic growth during 2011 and a continuing increase in freight volumes that were battered during the recession.

PIERS Global Intelligence Solutions, a sister company of The Journal of Commerce, forecasts that U.S. containerized imports will rise 4 percent next year while exports increase 4.6 percent. Trans-Pacific imports are forecast to rise 7.7 percent to 13.4 million 20-foot-equivalent units, close to the record 13.6 million TEUs during the pre-recession year of 2007.

-- Contact Joseph Bonney at jbonney@joc.com.