Leading Economic Index Jumps 1 Percent

An early indicator of the direction of the general economy gave its first positive sign in seven months as the Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased 1 percent in April.

Rising consumer expectations contributed to the increase, as did strength among stock prices, the interest rate spread and supplier deliveries. Initial unemployment claims were down and the average workweek was up. Partially offsetting the positive activity were weakness in real money supply and lower building permits.

The index has fallen 0.6 percent (a -1.2 percent annual rate) in the six months from November through April. That rate is an improvement on the 2.4 percent decline (a -4.8 percent annual rate) in the previous six months.

Continued declines in employment and industrial production brought the coincident index down 0.2 percent, not nearly as far as the 0.6 percent declines in both February and March.

Contact Thomas L. Gallagher at tgallagher@joc.com.