Leading Economic Index Climbs 0.1 Percent

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in July to 109.8, following a 0.3 percent decline in June, and a 0.5 percent increase in May.

Indicators of future activity point to slow expansion for the rest of 2010, said Ken Goldstein, economist at The Conference Board. The country's modest recovery does not seem to be reversing into a double-dip recession.

"With inventory rebuilding moderating, the industrial core of the economy has moved to a slower pace. There appears to be no change in the pace of the service sector. Combined, the result is a weak economy with little forward momentum. However, the good news is that the data do not point to a recession," said Goldstein.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index for the U.S., which measures current activity, increased 0.2 percent in July to 101.4, following a 0.1 percent decline in June, and a 0.4 percent increase in May. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index increased 0.4 percent in July to 107.9, following a 0.1 percent increase in June, and a 0.1 percent decline in May.

"The economy should continue expanding, albeit slowly," said Ataman Ozyildirim, another economist at The Conference Board. "The LEI is growing at its slowest pace since mid-2009 and it has been essentially flat since March. However, the index is still well above pre-recession levels and the CEI remains on a rising trend that began in late 2009. All four coincident indicators have risen over the last six months, with July's gain in industrial production offsetting the recent weakness in employment."

-- Contact Thomas L. Gallagher at tgallagher@joc.com.