Global Trade Volume Grew 2.5 Percent in June

World trade volume rose 2.5 percent in June from the previous month following a revised 1.4 percent decline in May, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis said.

Although June growth rate was the highest month-to-month gain since July 2008, overall trade volume was still 19 percent below the peak in April 2008, after suffering huge declines between November 2008 and this January, according to the private economic think tank.

For the second quarter of 2009, global trade volume fell 0.7 percent, compared with the first quarter. That compares with quarter-on-quarter drops of 11.2 percent in the first three months of this year and of 7.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. On the positive side, imports in emerging Asian markets rose by 5 percent, and Japanese exports rose by 12.3 percent, said the report.

“Despite the clear rise in June, world trade volume growth is still on a sharp downward trend,” the report said. Trade volume over the 12 months ending June 2009 was 9.8 percent lower than during the previous 12 months, it said. The World Trade Organization has already forecast that global trade will contract by 10 percent this year, the biggest annual fall since World War II.

Global industrial production rose 2 percent on a monthly basis in June, after rising by 1.4 percent during May, month-on-month. Over the entire second quarter of 2009, industrial production was 2.1 percent higher than during the first quarter, following three successive quarterly declines. Nevertheless, global industrial production in June was still 8.5 percent below the peak seen in March 2008. Industrial production in emerging Asian countries rose by 7.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with the first quarter, the same growth rate as in Japan. However, U.S. industrial production fell by 2.9 percent, the report said.

Contact Alan M. Field at afield@joc.com.