Global Trade Indicator Edges Up

The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said its composite leading indicator for the OECD area rose in April, reaching 93.2 compared with a revised 92.7 in March. There was an 8.3 point drop from April a year earlier.

The indicator for major economies in the Group of Seven also rose to 92.4 from a revised 92 the previous month, giving a 9.2 point year-on-year drop.

"While it is still too early to assess whether it is a temporary or a more durable turning point, OECD composite leading indicators (CLIs) for April 2009 point to a reduced pace of deterioration in most of the OECD economies," the OECD said in its survey.

Following signs in March of a pause in the slowdown of France, Italy and Britain, the April survey provides stronger signals that the downturn has reached bottom in these countries. April's indicators for Canada also pointed to a possible bottom, the OECD said. In Japan, Germany and the United States, positive signals were also beginning to emerge, the OECD said. Japan saw its CLI rise slightly to 89.5 in April, from 89.4 the previous month. However, it represented an 11.9 point decline compared to the same period last year.

In most non-OECD economies, composite leading indicators still pointed to deteriorating conditions. But in one positive sign among them, China's CLI rose to 94.3 in April from 93.4 in March, its third consecutive monthly rise.

Contact Alan Field at afield@joc.com.