Global Economic Contraction Slows

The contraction in the global economy seems to be slowing, said Angel Gurria, head of the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation, in a speech May 22.

Gurria, a former Mexican finance minister, said that the recovery of the global economy could begin at the end of this year. "Green shoots are appearing," he said.

Various indicators are improving, such as U.S. housing sales; Chinese exports are beginning to turn around. "The issue of recovery does not mean that we start to have very clear positive figures but that first the world economy stops contracting," Gurria said.

The next forecasts for growth in the 30-member OECD will be the first reports in several revisions that do not show a continued serious deterioration in GDP.

The United States will recover before Europe does because of the larger scale of its economic stimulus package and the fact that the U.S. financial crisis started before that in Europe, Gurria said.

Contact Alan Field at afield@joc.com.