Mark Szakonyi, Associate Editor | Jul 02, 2012 12:06PM EDT
U.S. exports of soybeans, coal and petroleum will drive the nation’s trade to expand 95 percent by 2026, as global trade jumps 98 percent in the same period, according to a HSBC report.
American exports over the next five years to Peru will grow 8.7 percent, and Turkey and Brazil will increase their own imports from the U.S. by more than 8 percent each. Exports to Vietnam will grow by 7 percent by 2016, and Columbia, Russia and Singapore are expected to increase their demand for U.S. imports between 5 percent to 7 percent in the same period.
Within the same period, U.S. export growth to China will expand by 7 percent, while imports from the Asian manufacturing powerhouse will grow 4 percent. A more than 11 percent jump of U.S. exports of soybeans to China, along with increased imports of computers, audio visual and telecom equipment, will boost overall trade between the two countries. U.S. trade to India is slated to rise by 7.6 percent, with imports and exports seeing about an equal rate of growth.
“Soya beans is already the 11th largest U.S. export sector, is also forecast to see significant growth of just under 10 percent, with China the main destination. Reflecting the strength of commodities globally, exports of coal and petroleum are both expected to grow by more than 9 percent,” the report stated.
U.S. exports to Mexico will grow about 4 percent and imports will expand nearly 3 percent by 2016. U.S.-Canada trade in the next five years will be virtually flat, with U.S exports growing 1.7 percent and imports ticking up 0.7 percent.
“Canada and Mexico will remain the two main export partners and number two and three for imports in the period to 2016, reflecting the importance of geographical proximity to U.S. traders,” according to the report, which places China as the third-largest U.S. trade partner.
Brazil is expected to have the fiercest appetitive for imports over the next five year, with growth of 7.7 percent expected. Chinese imports will likely growth 5.1 percent in the same period, as the government pushes domestic consumption, and exports are slated to grow 4.7 percent.
Brazilian imports of cars will rise by more than 13 percent by 2016, and car shipments to China will likely grow by nearly 12 percent in the same period. China and Germany are expected to knock the U.S. out of its place as top global importer by 2026.
U.S.-based importers and exporters appear to be optimistic of trade volume in the next six months, according to the HSBC Trade Confidence Index. Fifty-nine percent of respondents expect trade volume to rise, up 10 percent from the last study in October 2011. The respondents also appear more confident in the global economy, with 44 percent expecting a strengthened climate by the end of year, up from 29 percent who shared a similar view in the second half of 2011.
"Traditional export-driven economies in 'emerging' markets are becoming more consumer-driven and importing more from high-end developed nation producers like the United States to fulfill demand," said Steve Bottomley, senior executive vice president, head of commercial banking, HSBC, North America. "U.S. businesses should not ignore this important shift, and growth driver, but instead position themselves to become beneficiaries of this opportunity that is expected to help fuel global trade for many years to come."
Contact Mark Szakonyi at mszakonyi@joc.com. Follow him on Twitter @szakonyi_joc.
