Disaster Alters Japan Trade Estimate

Japan's sea and air cargo exports will sink between 4 percent and 5 percent in the first half of fiscal 2011 from a year earlier in the wake of the devastating earthquake and tsunami that hit the northeastern part of the country on March 11, a research firm predicted.

Nittsu Research Institute and Consulting revised previous estimates for the fiscal 2011 Japanese economy and cargo transportation in light of the twin natural disasters and the subsequent nuclear crisis.

Based on the information currently available, the research firm predicted containerized cargo exports from Japanese ports will fall between 4 percent and 4.5 percent in the April-September period. Cargo exports from Japanese airports will drop between 4.5 percent and 5 percent during the same six-month period.

By The Numbers: U.S. Trade with Japan

NRIC predicted container exports from Japanese ports will recover in the second half of fiscal 2011, rising between 5 percent and 5.5 percent from a year earlier. As a result, container exports in the whole of fiscal 2011 will grow between 0.2 percent and 0.7 percent from fiscal 2010.

Air cargo exports are also projected to recover in the second half of fiscal 2011, rising between 5 percent and 5.5 percent from a year earlier. As a result, the rate of growth in air cargo exports in the whole of fiscal 2011 will be between minus 0.1 percent and plus 0.4 percent, compared with fiscal 2010, NRIC said.

NRIC, a subsidiary of Nippon Express, Japan's largest freight forwarder, said sea and air cargo imports will not be affected as much as exports.

-- Contact Hisane Masaki at yiu45535@nifty.com.